Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 184 - AVS Forum
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post #5491 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

We're not assured of anything. But for February and March the sales figures for those months have been 'leaked' around the middle of the following month. They also seem to be higher than raw Nielsen numbers so these are probably studio estimates based on Nielsen reporting.

For February we got approximate figures of 250,000 (BD) to 125,000 (HD DVD). For March we have 335,000 (BD) to 120,000 (HD DVD).

I just assume that we'll see some April numbers reported around mid May. It's not a promise though.

If you're suggesting these numbers are somehow 'made up' then I think you're wrong. Nielsen do not report the whole market. The true volumes are higher than what Nielsen reports (probably 20-30% higher).

Nielsen based estimated numbers have been reported by Disney, Fox and Sony so far. I would not expect to ever see these numbers touted by universal or Toshiba for obvious reasons (AFAIK Universal/Toshiba have never contradicted published numbers).

It seems Toshiba are happy to stick to bragging about hardware sales.

Nope I agree the Nielson/Videoscan numbers we have are their real numbers reflected in their retail capture sales figures.

IMHO it seems their about a 70-80% capture rate of the total market. We have the actual Nielson sell through reported numbers through March 18th, and for March total andthe first quarter. Just missing those last two week so March where HD DVD showed signs of life.

I think whatever side thinks the numbers better fit their story wll release the numbers either NPD hardware numbers of Nielson/Videoscan software sales.

If Sony doesn't like the April numbers someone on the HD DVD side may insure thy get out.

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post #5492 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:43 AM
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Here is an interesting quote from WB - PS3 owners aren't buying the bulk of movies.
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post #5493 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post

I doubt the numbers will be leaked by a BD company if it shows the sales gap decreasing in comparison to the sales of the first quarter. The only rason they were probably leaked in the first place was becasue it showed a huge sales gap between the two and it showed it widening. Now that the HD DVD sales have increased with new releases the sales gap won't be as wide so I'm guessing that will be the end of leaked data unless it continues the same trend from the first quarter.

nah, you don't think......

oh course they were leaking/releasing the data because it supported their story line

If it doesn't we won't get from them, or they will somehow try to obscure and selectively release the data......

Grubert Icemage or Nataraj:

Thinking of that, anybody get the last couple weeks of March data in final form yet, or did we update our calculations based on the hard end of March figures published in HMM?

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post #5494 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

It will be interesting to get the #s for this title. I doubt it will be a big seller overall, though.

I agree. It's a fantastic series, no doubt, but I have a feeling this buying frenzy is localised to Amazon for the purposes of claiming the highest ranked title.

My wild guess for week 1 would be BD 12,000 and HD 8,000 units (that's across all outlets).

It's a shame the stock level charts have broken down at eproductwars. Might have given us a clue. I think CR was selling around 400 units a day when it was in the top 10.
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post #5495 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Here is an interesting quote from WB - PS3 owners aren't buying the bulk of movies.

Source? Rest of the article this was on?
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post #5496 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by BrerBear View Post

Rob Enderle is just about the least credible tech pundit around, and is infamous for his off-base predictions and inflammatory commentaries.

Check him on Wikipedia for a start, but he has a long and well-established history.

Whatever merit to his points, they are stained by the presence of his name on the article.

He's not afraid to go out on a limb and some of his more famous pronouncements obviously fell flat. But to be fair, he's been accurate a lot too in quite a few things. he been pro Microsoft an pro HD DVD in the past so obviously Blu-ray guys don't like him.

But he survives because a lot of what he says does come true and he provides some angles that no one else mentions.

That articles is a case in point, no one in a zillion pages at AVS brought up the point of Wal-Mart likes DVDs to bring in traffic and its logical for them to be wanting to sustain that model over a longer period with a successor format like HD DVD.

Even if you hated him in the past, you got to concede no one else brought up that point before he did.

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post #5497 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 09:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Here is an interesting quote from WB - PS3 owners aren't buying the bulk of movies.

linky?

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post #5498 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 10:01 AM
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didn't enderle declare bd the clear winner a few months back when the disparity in sales figures first became apparent? his schitzoid scribblings are probably not the best commentary, let alone source of information, for this format war.
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post #5499 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

In other news, amazon is out of Planet Earth (both formats). Both entries feature the same note:

I think the fact that the HD-DVD version has been in or very near Amazon's top-10 for weeks now is very impressive. Especially for a title at that price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

It will be interesting to get the #s for this title. I doubt it will be a big seller overall, though.

I don't follow the sales figures of individual titles as close as others here but I would have guessed it will be a big seller for both formats. In other words, I hope you are wrong.
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post #5500 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

I think the fact that the HD-DVD version has been in or very near Amazon's top-10 for weeks now is very impressive. Especially for a title at that price.

I think the fact that the Blu-ray version has been in or very near Amazon's top-10 for weeks now is very impressive as well. Especially for a title at that price, considering the vast majority of Blu-ray player owners are considered not to be using it seriously for movies.
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post #5501 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

How about this article from Grubert's favorite pundit:

from a pro- HD DVD leading pundit but has some new points

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner
By: Rob Enderle

Is this the guy who thought that Microsoft would sell 2 million XBOX360 add-ons by the end of 2006, using 20% of 10 million? If so, then I think that showed he really didn't have much grasp of reality and had a real lack of knowledge in this area.

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post #5502 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geko29 View Post

This title is a MONSTER on all fronts and I can't wait till we get some hard sales figures.

Given the difference in player prices, I would expect this title to sell more HD DVD players than Blu-ray players (including the PS3). Basically, those who really want to get into it for just this title are probably more likely to buy an HD DVD for that. That becomes even more true if they can get an HD DVD player for $199 near the end of the year and Blu-ray players are all at least twice that. Which is why I think the Blu-ray camp better not sit back and just assume they'll keep all their exclusive studios and win this thing without at least getting close to whatever HD DVD players will be going for at the end of the year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

He's not afraid to go out on a limb and some of his more famous pronouncements obviously fell flat. But to be fair, he's been accurate a lot too in quite a few things. he been pro Microsoft an pro HD DVD in the past so obviously Blu-ray guys don't like him.

I don't trust people who show themselves to have a lack of intelligence on a subject. That goes for whichever side they support.

Here is an article of his from August a little over a year and half ago:

Blu-Ray Wins or Nothing Does

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post #5503 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Is this the guy who thought that Microsoft would sell 2 million XBOX360 add-ons by the end of 2006, using 20% of 10 million? If so, then I think that showed he really didn't have much grasp of reality and had a real lack of knowledge in this area.

--Darin

What a difference 4 months makes.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html
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post #5504 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by theflux View Post

What a difference 4 months makes.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html

What an irony that the article carries a Blu-ray ad.
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post #5505 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theflux View Post

What a difference 4 months makes.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html

I think it was 16 months between those. This was just December and I thought this was interesting from him:
Quote:


Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

I think we pretty much all knew that not every PS3 would be used for movie viewing even a year ago (although some now seem to want to make it seem like this is new information in order to push the attach rate issue, even though it didn't save CED in its war with VHS), but that thing where he thought that HD DVD should have between 4x and 6x the active movie players pretty much indicated his knowledge level IMO. Interesting how Blu-ray was outselling HD DVD for software right at the end of the year, when he thought the active player advantage should have been the other way 4-6:1. And that was less than 4 weeks before the end of the year, so not like it was a long term prediction (with more excuse for being so wrong).

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post #5506 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dad1153 View Post

Source? Rest of the article this was on?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kosty View Post

linky?

When I don't give a link - that means a link can't be given ! In this case its from a respected daily industry publication.
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post #5507 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I don't trust people who show themselves to have a lack of intelligence on a subject. That goes for whichever side they support.

Very true. Does this guy have any major predictions that have come true (of course if he made 100 predictions and only 5 came true - nothing great there).

In general tech predictions are difficult. But volume estimates (like the add-on numbers) ought to be easier.
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post #5508 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Interesting how Blu-ray was outselling HD DVD for software right at the end of the year, when he thought the active player advantage should have been the other way 4-6:1. And that was less than 4 weeks before the end of the year, so not like it was a long term prediction (with more excuse for being so wrong).

Yup. Out of ironic amusment I might have tried to see what other tripe that blow hard was spouting, but that site is slower than molasses.


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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

When I don't give a link - that means a link can't be given ! In this case its from a respected daily industry publication.

You can certainly understand some... skepticism...over a quote that can't be corroborated? Certainly for context, if not veracity.

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post #5509 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Here is an interesting quote from WB - PS3 owners aren't buying the bulk of movies.

Assuming this means Blu-ray movies then the obvious question is:

OK then, who is buying the bulk of Blu-ray movies?
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post #5510 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 05:08 PM
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nataraj: Here is an interesting quote from WB - PS3 owners aren't buying the bulk of movies.

fozziwig: Assuming this means Blu-ray movies then the obvious question is:
OK then, who is buying the bulk of Blu-ray movies?

I was hoping someone would raise this, because I have a question. If BD standalones account for more than 1/2 the sales, and they number in the order of 100,000, then the percentage of the 2,000,000 PS3's buying movies is less than 5%. Someone update me.
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post #5511 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

... then the percentage of the 2,000,000 PS3's buying movies is less than 5%.

I'm not sure why people are using 2 million for the number of PS3s. Are people counting those sold in Japan, even though the software figures we've seen from Nielsen are for the US, counting units shipped, but not sold to consumers, ...? I believe that the NPD numbers come out to about 1.3 million through the end of March, but I keep seeing people using 2 million.

I also wonder how much Warner really knows about what players the discs are being sold for.

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post #5512 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Is this the guy who thought that Microsoft would sell 2 million XBOX360 add-ons by the end of 2006, using 20% of 10 million? If so, then I think that showed he really didn't have much grasp of reality and had a real lack of knowledge in this area.

--Darin

What about his comments on the Wal-Mart HD DVD players do you disagree with?

AFAIK, Xbox 360 HD DVD drives continue to sell. As HD DVD movies become more plentiful and those Xbox 360 drives drop below $149 or less in price by the 4th quarter, then it may very well achieve 20% penetration into the Xbox 360 fan base.

Pull the article up, I don't think he predicted 2M sales by the end of 2006. But a lot of them will probably be sold by the end of the year.

He may have been wrong about the magnitude or the timing , but possibly not on the eventual affect.

Do you agree or disagree that the Xbox 360 add on HD DVD drive is a very positive factor for HD DVD that can only become more effective as HD DVD gains further mass market penetration?

And he's not as wrong as the Sony PS3 spin masters or Fox propagandists who predicted millions more PS3 sales and orders of magnitude higher HD sales by this time period.

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post #5513 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theflux View Post

What a difference 4 months makes.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html
Quote:


Is this the guy who thought that Microsoft would sell 2 million XBOX360 add-ons by the end of 2006, using 20% of 10 million?

Where in the article did he say 20% by end of 2006?

The Xbox 360 HD DVD drives may very well sell more units as HD DVD availability goes up and HD DVD movies become more commonplace (see Wal-Mart discussion above).

Why don't you read the article again, take out your arbitrary time periods and see what advantage the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive can have over this year to the HD DVD player installed base.

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post #5514 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:13 PM
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Anyone no about how many 360 add on drives have been sold?
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post #5515 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Where in the article did he say 20% by end of 2006?

I don't see it in that article, so it could be elsewhere or it could be that my memory was off some. In there he says 4-6x for HD DVD by the end of 2006.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

... take out your arbitrary time periods ...

It isn't my arbitrary time period. He is the one who said, "... by year-end should be ...". And the time period is part of making predictions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

What about his comments on the Wal-Mart HD DVD players do you disagree with?

I would have to look at it again, but I think his title is BS right there and with what I've read from him in the past, don't trust him to really have all that much of a grasp of reality. Do you believe that title is the truth?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

AFAIK, Xbox 360 HD DVD drives continue to sell.

Of course it continues to sell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

As HD DVD movies become more plentiful and those Xbox 360 drives drop below $149 or less in price by the 4th quarter, then it may very well achieve 20% penetration into the Xbox 360 fan base.

And it wouldn't make his 4-6x by the end of 2006 any more intelligent than it was when he made it. Lots of things will happen someday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

He may have been wrong about the magnitude or the timing , but possibly not on the eventual affect.

Wow. I think I need you to defend any predictions I make. I won't even have to worry about how ridiculous they are.
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Do you agree or disagree that the Xbox 360 add on HD DVD drive is a very positive factor for HD DVD that can only become more effective as HD DVD gains further mass market penetration?

Not sure why you are going there as it makes absolutely no difference as to how dumb his prediction was and seems like a way to take away from that. If it doesn't drop in price, I think it could become less important with standalone player drops. If they would fix some of the problems and push it more, then it could become more significant.

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post #5516 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by pdusk88 View Post

Anyone no about how many 360 add on drives have been sold?

No.
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post #5517 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by pdusk88 View Post

Anyone no about how many 360 add on drives have been sold?

I don't have a link but I remember just a week after Toshiba hit 100K on standalone players that they said something about over 200K HD DVD players.

So I figured low 200s = 220K - 100K standalones = 120K HD Addons + Computers + PC Drives.
I would figure the majority of those are HD Addons.
Maybe 90K-100K?

To my knowledge Microsoft has never given an exact count.
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post #5518 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by namechamps View Post

Maybe 90K-100K?

During CES we were told 92K. So, you will have to guess what happened this year ...
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post #5519 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by namechamps View Post

I don't have a link but I remember just a week after Toshiba hit 100K on standalone players that they said something about over 200K HD DVD players.

I believe the info about the 200k came first and wasn't clear about whether it was standalones or counting the add-ons. Kosty has some insider contacts and reported that one of them told him the 200k was just for Toshiba and didn't count add-ons. Then the release came out that they had surpassed 100k standalones. I haven't seen any explanation of this discrepancy and makes me wonder about that contact.
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

During CES we were told 92K. So, you will have to guess what happened this year ...

I'm pretty sure the kjack posted that the NPD number for the end of January was 112k (after the 92k for end of December). I haven't seen any reports since then, that I recall.

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post #5520 of 9375 Old 04-24-2007, 07:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

I was hoping someone would raise this, because I have a question. If BD standalones account for more than 1/2 the sales, and they number in the order of 100,000, then the percentage of the 2,000,000 PS3's buying movies is less than 5%. Someone update me.

As Darin noted, the NPD number for NA is 1.3 million shipped.

As of 2/1, HDDVD standalones were up 52-48% according to NPD. Let's go with namechamp's 220k HDDVD players (both standalone and add-on/PC drives). Toshiba supposedly said 100k players.

This would mean BD had ~92k standalones comparitively as of the same time (2/1/07), roughly 8k less than Toshiba's 100k. According to Videogamecharts.com showed there were 931,700 PS3's sold through it's 3rd month (Febuary). Nielson/HMM numbers were 100/92.53 SI at the time

To summarize with the Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM numbers:

~2/1-2/4

HD DVD
Standalones (Toshiba and clones): 100,000
360 add-on: 92,000
PC drives: ~28,000
Total: ~220,000 "players"
Disc sales: 114,688 YTD; 477,250 SI, 20,533 weekly


Blu-ray
Standalones (Sammy, Sony, Panny, Pio, Philips): 92,000
PS3: 931,700
PC Drives: ?
Total: 1,023,700 "players"
Disc sales: 237,071 YTD; 534,112 SI; 45,719 weekly

-- "No matter where you go, there you are."

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