Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 187 - AVS Forum
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post #5581 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I haven't been keeping up with this thread...

What is everyone's take on IGN's news that HD DVD only lags BD disc sales by 2000 discs and that hardware sales are 4:1?

I got the HD press report type email earlier today and I don't read it as they are really within 2k, but that they are within 2k of what the Blu-ray group reported.

Here is the relevant part of the email:
Quote:


But in the wake of Blu-ray's Monday announcement of hitting 1 million units sold, we had to point out some of our own interesting observations from the latest Nielsen stats and from point-of-sales data compiled by Universal, Warner and Toshiba.

First is that HD DVD titles are now at 998,059 units sold - a mere 2,000 units shy of Blu-ray's announcement from Monday.

As people can see, they used point-of-sales data from 3 companies besides the Nielsen stats for the HD DVD number, and just the announcement for the Blu-ray number. They don't even claim that they are within 2k of the real numbers, just 2k of the announcement. Somebody else may go make assumptions and come up with 2k, but I don't think that makes sense in this case. Especially when Nielsen numbers say that SI was 56.4/43.6 through April 8th. Going out and adding sales for one side from other sources while not adding them for the other side would of course result in misleading values. I don't blame the email as it spells out what they did, but others can jump to false conclusions from that.

--Darin

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post #5582 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

NPD has not publicly released a number after the 92k 2006 year ending number.

Kjack's 112k was just an estimate, and not an NPD number.

Why do you claim that? Kjack is an insider, and one who doesn't seem to go around deceiving people, from what I've observed.

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post #5583 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:27 PM
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http://www.reuters.com/article/filmN...18265320070426

Quote:


Quote:


On the high-def front, Blu-ray Disc titles accounted for 60% of sales, while HD DVD took 40%, nine points more than the previous week.

Observers attributed the lift to the strength of "Aces," the week's top HD DVD seller, which was not available on Blu-ray. The film's distributor, Universal Pictures, is the leading supporter of the No. 2 format. The top-selling Blu-ray title for the week was "Casino Royale."

Does this imply the final N/V numbers were 60/40 compared to the first alert numbers of 61/39 for the week ending April 15th?

thats a 2% swing (+1 -1)

Or is it talking about April 22 numbers or April 8th numbers?

That article implies recent final weekly numbers were

69% 31% one week
60% 40% the next week

Is there any recent weeks this matches in the Nielson/Videoscan stats?

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post #5584 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reginald Trent View Post

Seems to me that anyone with ab ounce of brains would prefer the format with the smaller amount of players but with almost the same amount of disc bought. The only thing left to do is get more of the players (HD DVD) into the hands of customers.

Can you please tell us why you think RCA dropped the CED format (it lost to VHS) when it reportedly was selling more discs per player than they expected? Those with an ounce of brains look at how long players have been in the market (it doesn't seem real smart to count HD DVD sales that happened before the PS3 even went up for sale as evidence against the PS3 as a player) and many other factors. The current rate of sales is much more likely to sway a studio now than what sales were last summer. The smart ones will of course look at what players are likely to sell, etc., but don't make the mistake of thinking that the format with the higher attach rate must be doing better.

I thought people here knew a year ago that HD DVD was likely to have the higher attach rate just because of the different approaches and now it seems like this is news to people. HD DVD better have a better attach rate than the PS3, or they are doing something wrong. Although a high attach rate that is the result of mostly only appealing to a core of enthusiasts is bad news generally, not good news.

Are you one of the people who is glad that Microsoft didn't decide to include an HD DVD in all XBOX360s recently, since that would have likely hurt the attach rate?

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post #5585 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:40 PM
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As people can see, they used point-of-sales data from 3 companies besides the Nielsen stats for the HD DVD number, and just the announcement for the Blu-ray number. They don't even claim that they are within 2k of the real numbers, just 2k of the announcement. Somebody else may go make assumptions and come up with 2k, but I don't think that makes sense in this case. Especially when Nielsen numbers say that SI was 56.4/43.6 through April 8th. Going out and adding sales for one side from other sources while not adding them for the other side would of course result in misleading values. I don't blame the email as it spells out what they did, but others can jump to false conclusions from that.

This makes sense. Until HD DVD leads in sales one week, I think Blu-ray will maintain its SI lead.

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post #5586 of 9375 Old 04-25-2007, 11:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darin2 View Post

I thought people here knew a year ago that HD DVD was likely to have the higher attach rate just because of the different approaches and now it seems like this is news to people. HD DVD better have a better attach rate than the PS3, or they are doing something wrong. Although a high attach rate that is the result of mostly only appealing to a core of enthusiasts is bad news generally, not good news.


Do any BD stalwarts really believe Sony represented sales projections at anything remotely close to the current, relatively modest SI disparity when they pitched their strategy to the studios? C'mon.
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post #5587 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 01:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmN...18265320070426

Does this imply the final N/V numbers were 60/40 compared to the first alert numbers of 61/39 for the week ending April 15th?

thats a 2% swing (+1 -1)

Or is it talking about April 22 numbers or April 8th numbers?

That article implies recent final weekly numbers were

69% 31% one week
60% 40% the next week

Is there any recent weeks this matches in the Nielson/Videoscan stats?

Yeehaw!

Very close to even for that week, as I predicted.

Next week is likely to be about 64/36 - and over the next few weeks HD DVD will draw closer still.

This is definitely not the scenario that the Bluray entities were counting on...
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post #5588 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 01:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Yeehaw!

Very close to even for that week, as I predicted.

You consider 1.5:1 to be "very close to even?".
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Next week is likely to be about 64/36 - and over the next few weeks HD DVD will draw closer still.

Is this prediction for the week, for YTD, or SI? 64/36 for the week would be 1.78:1, which would be an improvement for Blu-ray over last week. I predict the week ending April 22nd will be the best week so far this year for HD DVD at about 1.3:1 to 1.4:1 give or take a little (with Blu-ray ahead). That would be an improvement for HD DVD from the previous week and then I expect Blu-ray to do better for the week ending the 29th than the week ending the 22nd.

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post #5589 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 02:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

None of these sales figures are massive at this stage. It terms of a mass marketed consumer product the volumes are still tiny in the captured statistics. Any quirk is magnified.

There is a possibility of more than a few points of shift from first alert to final numbers. Also first alert digital numbers are larger retailers, at this stage its possible that the sample survey retailers may have a different trend. Also if any first alert vendors miss their submission, they roll up into the final numbers.

To assume without merit smacks of bias.

You mistook my my meaning. The sample size in terms of retailers reporting is massive (60-70% of the market). Volumes are not masssive, that is true. But I did not say they were.

The point of a massive number of retailers reporting HD disc sales is that the market shares will not budge if a few more report a few days later.

If a political pollster gets a sample of 2,000 people he knows there won't be much, if any, change in the outcome if he asks another 1,000. And thats with a tiny sample compared to the voting population.

See what I meant now?
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post #5590 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 03:07 AM - Thread Starter
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Something usefull may still come out of that...

998,059 units sold. According to Home Media research, they had sold 937,500 by 3/31. Which gives us an average of 30K/wk during the first half of April.

Oh and 250,000 Toshiba players sold globally as of end of March.

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post #5591 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 04:31 AM
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I'd be willing to wager that the proportion of discs sold through for both formats that are not represented by Nielsen is roughly equal.

If HD DVD total actual (not Nielsen) SI really is creeping up within inches of 1 M, then the ratios (assuming Blu-ray has a similar proportion of unrepresented sales) would put Blu-ray somewhere in the vicinity of 1.3 M discs sold through.
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post #5592 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

I'd be willing to wager that the proportion of discs sold through for both formats that are not represented by Nielsen is roughly equal.

If HD DVD total actual (not Nielsen) SI really is creeping up within inches of 1 M, then the ratios (assuming Blu-ray has a similar proportion of unrepresented sales) would put Blu-ray somewhere in the vicinity of 1.3 M discs sold through.

Statistically this makes no sense. you would lose the wager.

Let's stick to the ratios that Nielsen report. They presently report YTD of 69:31 for Blu-ray.

When you add in the missing part of the market not covered by Nielsen the ratio will be practically the same.

Let's not put too much weight on a HD DVD PR piece that gives no clue as to the source of the data and even implies its numbers are including pre-order data.
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post #5593 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmN...18265320070426

Does this imply the final N/V numbers were 60/40 compared to the first alert numbers of 61/39 for the week ending April 15th?

thats a 2% swing (+1 -1)

Or is it talking about April 22 numbers or April 8th numbers?

That article implies recent final weekly numbers were

69% 31% one week
60% 40% the next week

Is there any recent weeks this matches in the Nielson/Videoscan stats?

I wouldn't put too much faith in one reporter getting it wrong. So he rounded 61:39 to 60:40. Big deal.

There have been no new numbers reported. There has been no 'swing'. There will be new numbers posted on Friday which won't be too spectacular given the release slate for both formats.

BD will continue to benefit from CR sales and the other big March releases. HD DVD have ongoing sales from CoM (although not at Amazon), Good Shepherd and their big release of 17th April - 'Smokin Aces'.

I don't expect to see a huge change in ratios. So we're likely to see SI move to 58:42; YTD at around 70:30 and Weeky around 60:40 again. The following week should be a big win for Blu-ray again with Night At The Museum, The Queen and Deja Vu all having their HD launches. I expect to see 75:25 for BD in that week - I thinkk BD will also win the battle of 'Planet Earth' by a comfortable margin.
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post #5594 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

Statistically this makes no sense. you would lose the wager.

Let's stick to the ratios that Nielsen report. They presently report YTD of 69:31 for Blu-ray.

When you add in the missing part of the market not covered by Nielsen the ratio will be practically the same.

Let's not put too much weight on a HD DVD PR piece that gives no clue as to the source of the data and even implies its numbers are including pre-order data.

Why would we use YTD in this case, though? The number posted from HD DVD PRG was SI (or at least I assume it was... if that number was YTD then Nielsen is missing a lot more of the market than we think).

I'm looking at the posted Nielsen data for 4/15 for Since Inception which indicates 57:43 in favor of Blu-ray (roughly 1.3 to 1). That's where I got my 1.3M Blu-ray projection from.
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post #5595 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I got the HD press report type email earlier today and I don't read it as they are really within 2k, but that they are within 2k of what the Blu-ray group reported.

Here is the relevant part of the email:
As people can see, they used point-of-sales data from 3 companies besides the Nielsen stats for the HD DVD number, and just the announcement for the Blu-ray number. They don't even claim that they are within 2k of the real numbers, just 2k of the announcement. Somebody else may go make assumptions and come up with 2k, but I don't think that makes sense in this case. Especially when Nielsen numbers say that SI was 56.4/43.6 through April 8th. Going out and adding sales for one side from other sources while not adding them for the other side would of course result in misleading values. I don't blame the email as it spells out what they did, but others can jump to false conclusions from that.

--Darin

It just says the POS data was compiled by the three companies. It does not say the three companies collected the data. I don't think Toshiba, Universal, or any other studio/CE runs their own point of sale data collection system, unless it is just within their own company store.

At work, computers collect and generate the data. I compile it. Sony's report they issued was compiling the data. Nielsen data that Sony compiled. So I guess I don't read this the same way you do.
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post #5596 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:51 AM
 
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How many places are taking Matrix pre-orders. Also, how can one count pre orders as sales? These guys need to know how to write a press release without making a fool of themselves. If the 998K is got by counting pre-sales, then this is one of the most idiotic PR attempts I have seen. Ever. JMHO.
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post #5597 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 05:58 AM
 
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It is easy to verify that while BB will carry plenty of titles of new BD releases, they DO NOT carry most HD DVD releases until weeks after they are released. Often never. So forcing people to buy from online sources that may not be covered by Neilson. So, we cannot assume that non Neilson sources are equally represented.

Even my local CC does not carry Uni releases on HD DVD, except for Miami Vice. They said others were sold out and not re ordered!

On Tuesday I hit 3 BB and 2 CC looking for Nutty Professor - since I have many stores within a mile of where I work and live. When I am in town, I pretty much have the whole day off
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post #5598 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 06:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

How many places are taking Matrix pre-orders. Also, how can one count pre orders as sales? These guys need to know how to write a press release without making a fool of themselves. If the 998K is got by counting pre-sales, then this is one of the most idiotic PR attempts I have seen. Ever. JMHO.

Actually

"The firm points out that pre-orders of Planet Earth and The Matrix Trilogy will propel HD-DVD over the million-mark quite shortly. Representatives also stated that hardware sales have continued with strength in April, maintaining a 4 to 1 margin over Blu-ray. ..... "

They point that they have sold under a million, but when the preorders got delivered they will pass a million.

I cant read it in any other way.
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post #5599 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 06:08 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://gear.ign.com/articles/783/783545p1.html

IGN article with HD DVD provided stats, maybe from the April 15th final numbers?

Oh come on, Kosty, you know as well as I do that a million divided by a million plus two thousand is nowhere near 57:43.

As famously said by an early-20th-century matador, "What can't be, can't be; and also, it is impossible."


Quote:


Things that make you go hmmm...

What makes me go hmmm (well, actually it makes me go grrr) is the terrible misattribution in the article:

- HD-DVD announcing that 100,000 dedicated players had been sold. TRUE
- Blu-ray announcing that Blu-ray movie sales had reached the 1,000,000-sold milestone. TRUE

- Blu-ray releasing data that 70-percent of Q1 HD-movie sales were thanks to Blu-ray. FALSE - It was Home Media Magazine who did that, on an article summing up the first quarter of 2007 (as IGN itself reported here).

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post #5600 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 06:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

How many places are taking Matrix pre-orders. Also, how can one count pre orders as sales? These guys need to know how to write a press release without making a fool of themselves. If the 998K is got by counting pre-sales, then this is one of the most idiotic PR attempts I have seen. Ever. JMHO.

They didn't say they counted pre-orders as sales. They said that they have strong pre-orders on Matrix and Planet Eart, and that these titles will propel them well over the million mark.
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post #5601 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 07:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Oh come on, Kosty, you know as well as I do that a million divided by a million plus two thousand is nowhere near 57:43.

As famously said by an early-20th-century matador, "What can't be, can't be; and also, it is impossible."




What makes me go hmmm (well, actually it makes me go grrr) is the terrible misattribution in the article:

- HD-DVD announcing that 100,000 dedicated players had been sold. TRUE
- Blu-ray announcing that Blu-ray movie sales had reached the 1,000,000-sold milestone. TRUE

- Blu-ray releasing data that 70-percent of Q1 HD-movie sales were thanks to Blu-ray. FALSE - It was Home Media Magazine who did that, on an article summing up the first quarter of 2007 (as IGN itself reported here).

Actually Grubert, the BDA also quoted the 70% of Q1 sales figure in their 1,000,000 disc press release. They did attribute the statistic to HMM, but they also released it in their press release. So the BDA did report it.

It would be nice if you corrected your post. Posts like yours also make me go Grrr...

Basically the BDA is a mouth piece that will report any positive news about BD. And once they regurgitate what someone else says, it implies they are signing off on the validity of the number, and making it their own.

The HD DVD group was not "Faslely" reporting that the BDA provided this statistic. They did (and still do), but the statistic was provided to them by HMM.
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post #5602 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 07:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

It is easy to verify that while BB will carry plenty of titles of new BD releases, they DO NOT carry most HD DVD releases until weeks after they are released. Often never. So forcing people to buy from online sources that may not be covered by Neilson. So, we cannot assume that non Neilson sources are equally represented.

Even my local CC does not carry Uni releases on HD DVD, except for Miami Vice. They said others were sold out and not re ordered!

On Tuesday I hit 3 BB and 2 CC looking for Nutty Professor - since I have many stores within a mile of where I work and live. When I am in town, I pretty much have the whole day off

BB, CC and even Walmart have been in BR's pocket since day 1 this year. It's quasi-impossible to find any new HD DVD releases in any of them for weeks and for some titles, never. How can we consider the Nielsen data representative of true sales numbers when most HD DVD titles must be purchased online ? Even if Amazon represents let's say 33% of these online sales, how can we, as simple observers with no real numbers, come up with any kind of representative numbers ?

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post #5603 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 07:21 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Actually Grubert, the BDA also quoted the 70% of Q1 sales figure in their 1,000,000 disc press release. They did attribute the statistic to HMM, but they also released it in their press release. So the BDA did report it.

It would be nice if you corrected your post. Posts like yours also make me go Grrr...

Let me recap. Here's what IGN says:

Quote:


Blu-ray [...] added a little salt to the wound with the data that 70-percent of Q1 HD-movie sales were thanks to Blu-ray.

So they are saying that Sony came up with the data. Which is false. HMR came up with the Q1 data on April 22 and Sony relayed it on April 23.

So my point stands. What they say is false. (And what I say is correct and true.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

The HD DVD group was not "Faslely" reporting that the BDA provided this statistic. They did (and still do), but the statistic was provided to them by HMM.

You misread. I wasn't criticizing the HD DVD PRG (not this time anyway). I criticized the IGN article.

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post #5604 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 07:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

You mistook my my meaning. The sample size in terms of retailers reporting is massive (60-70% of the market). Volumes are not masssive, that is true. But I did not say they were.

The point of a massive number of retailers reporting HD disc sales is that the market shares will not budge if a few more report a few days later.

If a political pollster gets a sample of 2,000 people he knows there won't be much, if any, change in the outcome if he asks another 1,000. And thats with a tiny sample compared to the voting population.

See what I meant now?

This is different as it is not a random sample. It is very stratified and the various retailers large and small do not count the same.

Political polling or normal statistical numbers do not apply for a non-random sample.

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post #5605 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Let me recap. Here's what IGN says:



So they are saying that Sony came up with the data. Which is false. HMR came up with the Q1 data on April 22 and Sony relayed it on April 23.

So my point stands. What they say is false. (And what I say is correct and true.)



You misread. I wasn't criticizing the HD DVD PRG (not this time anyway). I criticized the IGN article.

Well, I did think you were talking about the HD DVD PRG. However, I don't think IGN is saying anything false either. All they said was that the BDA said that BD had 70% of the market in Q1. This is true, the BDA did say that. They said it based off HMM research, but they did say it.

I would think it would be odd if every news piece had to follow the data trail back to where all statistics originated. George Bush said the Army needs $4 Billion more dollars. George got this number from his Chief of Staff, who got the number from a 4 star general at the Pentagon, who got the number from a Pentagon research team, who arrived at the number by calculating how many more soldiers and equipment were need in the next three months, and these used dollar amounts provided by the acocunting department.

News items would be tremendously longer and no one would read them. The BDA did say 1,000,000 discs sold and a 70% Q1 market share. Likely the 1,000,000 came from Nielsen. The data used to calculate the 70% market share also likely came from Nielsen. The BDA probably already arrived at the 70% number on their own (it isn't rocket science) and HMM may have reported it one day earlier. The BDA even acknowledged that they did so. However, the BDA did say 70%, so I don't agree with your claim the IGN mislead anyone either.
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post #5606 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

Why would we use YTD in this case, though? The number posted from HD DVD PRG was SI (or at least I assume it was... if that number was YTD then Nielsen is missing a lot more of the market than we think).

I'm looking at the posted Nielsen data for 4/15 for Since Inception which indicates 57:43 in favor of Blu-ray (roughly 1.3 to 1). That's where I got my 1.3M Blu-ray projection from.

Ah, OK, My apologies. I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying the missing bit of the market would split 50:50 for the 2 formats.

Of course, it shouldn't matter whether we use SI, YTD or weekly. The missing part of the market should conform to the ratios used by Nielsen over whatever period is selected - in my view anyway. I see that Kosty has a different view - ie: that the unreported market actually has a HD DVD bias. Possible, but unlikely. It's just as improbable that the unreported movie sales have a BD bias and Nielsen are being kind to HD DVD!
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post #5607 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

This is different as it is not a random sample. It is very stratified and the various retailers large and small do not count the same.

Political polling or normal statistical numbers do not apply for a non-random sample.

The Nielsen videoscan numbers in this case is no longer a statistical exercise with random sampling. If I understand their methodology, they have retailers responsible for 40% DVD sales participating, and their data is collected at the register as the sales are rung up. Barring any mechanical errors or failure to submit data, their sales numbers for participating retailers are complete. And this percentage of the retailer population that participates is high.

IE: unlike statistical sampling which deals with a small percentage of the population, what they have is complete for the participating group. This size is beyond any normal statistical sampling considerations, so it is not correct to consider this the same as other nielsen ratings for TV shows (which is really about tiny statistics sampling sizes with a low percentage of the population participating, and yet is trusted by practically anyone. Nielsen ratings to TV shows are used to decide which shows live or die and rates for commercials even when they are much less complete.

As has been pointed out various times by many individuals here, amazon participates in nielsen, which should make tomorrow's HMM release interesting as the April 15th group buy will be part of that. We should see how much the nielsen numbers can be skewed by the impressive amazon showing of the red crusaders.

--- IMO, this thread gets interesting only on Thursdays and Fridays, the other days, this could just become a chatline for lonely people.
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post #5608 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 09:50 AM
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Random sample of 5% would be better than a convenience sample of 40%.
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post #5609 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 09:55 AM
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There are some interesting numbers in CED.

NPD says 125K HD DVD add-ons were sold thr' feb.

DVD had one of its best quarters since its laucnh 10 years ago. Both hardware sales and software saw the second best quarters. Over 400 Million DVDs were sold in the quarter. That makes HiDef DVD sales less than 1/3rd of 1%.

In the first year since launch DVD sold about 12M. So, HiDef DVD has sold about 1/6 th of that number since launch.
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post #5610 of 9375 Old 04-26-2007, 10:10 AM
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Have you all seen this Reuter's article?

Quote:
From January 1-March 31, consumers bought almost 1.2 million high-definition discs -- 832,530 Blu-ray units and 359,300 HD DVDs -- according to Home Media Magazine. In March, consumers bought 335,980 Blu-ray Discs and 119,570 HD DVDs.

Since the high-def format's inception -- HD DVD launched in April 2006, while Blu-ray got rolling two months later -- more than 2.14 million discs have been purchased by consumers: 1.2 million Blu-ray Discs and about 937,500 HD DVDs.

This says there were 1.2 Million BDs sold since inception. Could the BD group really have been that tardy with their 1 million PR release?
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