Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 19 - AVS Forum
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post #541 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?

The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.

I can't find the reference now, but Sony swore that BD was added to the PS3 because of game content, and movie playing was serendipitous. Trying to justify the cost of the drive subsidy to be recovered on the backs of gamers, while doing the Trojan horse thing for the movie division.
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post #542 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Wow, for it was 100/38 last weeks YTD, and 100/50 this weeks YTD???


WTH, that is a huge swing. I guess it just shows how volatile it is at this point.
That's good news for HD DVD, compared to last weeks release anyway.
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post #543 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:24 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

The sales information is spreading to more mainstream sites such as TG Daily and Slashdot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Gizmodo has picked up the news. And for a change, they're referencing this thread! Woo hoo!!

nice
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post #544 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:25 AM
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Just to be clear -

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

If this trend continues, HD DVD will surpass BD in about 4 weeks!! (J/K)
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post #545 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Week ended January 14, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

What??? HD DVD made a 12% jump in only 7 days!!!

Now we can predict that BD will be destroyed in two months, right?

Or am I reading that wrong?
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post #546 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:28 AM
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There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week, particularly with BD losing 10%.

They must be doing readjustments or something.
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post #547 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week.

They must be doing readjustments or something.

Now who's questioning the data?

Actually, it supports the idea that plazman was asking about volume. Low volume will cause this kind of swing. Or an ass kicking by HD DVD-- one or the other.
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post #548 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week, particularly with BD losing 10%.

They must be doing readjustments or something.

If sales of both formats are very low then it could easily change 10% or more in a week.

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post #549 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

Early adopters are what? 2-5% of the market.

If you get HD DVD out with lower prices it gets to the public faster and it mutes the cries of the early adopter.

Give you guys an inch(2 weeks) and you take a mile(2 years)

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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post #550 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:33 AM
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If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.
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post #551 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it.

The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

I'd agree except that you have to keep in mind that the 360 exists on the other side as an hd-dvd player marketed specifically to gamers. The addon sold better than expected with relatively little effort on the part of Toshiba or MS compared to the PS3 push.

Much depends on just how agressively MS does on or does not promote hd-dvd in it's gaming console going forward. Clearly the PS3 is showing that a game console IS a decisive way into the HD market (although that should have been clear long ago doh!). This of course is boosted by the fact that the PS3 is both the standalone blu-ray market AND the PS gamer market in one.

So how will the hd-dvd camp respond to the use of the gaming console to take the next-gen dvd market by storm? A Toshiba rep was quoted a few months ago as expecting an hd-dvd drive to show up in the 360 later but that was quickly denied by MS.

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post #552 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:38 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

I agree.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #553 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00
...

Historical data

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00
...

Week ended Jan 7

YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

Grubert, what is your analysis on this new set of data??

It was made a big deal that BD made up 7% of the deficit in one week (Jan 7-14) for discs sold Since Inception (SI). This was the sign that BD was on the charge, and that HD-DVD was ever so closer to obliteration.

Now, HD-DVD has gained back 10% ahead of BD in one-week (Jan 14-21) for the SI numbers. Also, YTD sales ratio decreased from almost 3:1 in favor of BD to 2:1.

Whoah !! BD as a format has tanked !! If this trend continues, what with more than 300 movies coming out for HD-DVD, BD will continue to lose 7-10% market share each week !!

Doom and Gloom, Ladies and Gents, Doom and Gloom !!!

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back.
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post #554 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

So even with just a couple of new releases, HD-DVD gains ground. Just imagine what will be happening when HD-DVD starts releasing 20-30 titles a month in a few months.

Volumes are incredibly low right now, so you will see swings. If you read my past post, you will see I estimated 1.47 million discs for HD-DVD in 2006 and about 1.25 million discs for BD. I think that for one format to gain 10% on the other, they only need to outsell it by about 135,000 discs that week. A couple of good releases and you are there. With HD-DVD's limited numberof releases, BD should come out ahead more often, but once HD-DVD comes out swinging, it should have the edge as often as BD.
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post #555 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:43 AM
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This is hilarious, now lets get all of the BD shills back on here that swore there was "no looking back" and that the numbers this week would show that HD-DVD was on its way to an early death by May.
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post #556 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

I agree.

Does this end the circle jerk?
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post #557 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

i guess those in the HD-DVD camp should start a thread about this and start to make wild speculative guesses as to when this means BD will throw in the towel.

Because the whole point of this idiotic thread is. If the numbers are correct BD sold more disc's in 2 weeks than HD-DVD. Yet, look how the BD champions came out in droves. Not pointing in your direction, just at the whole of most people in this thread.

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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post #558 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:47 AM
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This thread is a roller coaster ride. I never would have expected HD DVD to outsell BD last week. I'm still trying to figure out how this happened.
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post #559 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

New data in:

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00

So a title without major mainstream appeal was able to repel the BD charge? Such a conundrum.
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post #560 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:48 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj View Post

Grubert, what is your analysis on this new set of data??

It was made a big deal that BD made up 7% of the deficit in one week (Jan 7-14) for discs sold Since Inception (SI). This was the sign that BD was on the charge, and that HD-DVD was ever so closer to obliteration.

Now, HD-DVD has gained back 10% ahead of BD in one-week (Jan 14-21) for the SI numbers. Also, YTD sales ratio decreased from almost 3:1 in favor of BD to 2:1.

Whoah !! BD as a format has tanked !! If this trend continues, what with more than 300 movies coming out for HD-DVD, BD will continue to lose 7-10% market share each week !!

Doom and Gloom, Ladies and Gents, Doom and Gloom !!!

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back.

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #561 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:48 AM
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If there is even the slightest bit of truth to any of the numbers, then they illustrate that the sales of both formats are really very, very low, as evidenced by the high volatility of the comparative numbers.

That may seem obvious, but it adds credence to the beliefs of some of us that we have a very long way until real hi-def disc adoption becomes widespread folks. There is no end to the format war in sight, and indeed, the real achievement will be to make the numbers look significant vs DVD.
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post #562 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Yet, look how the BD champions came out in droves. Not pointing in your direction, just at the whole of most people in this thread.



I should point out that I am an HD DVD supporter, though I care less about the subject now then I have in the past.
Quote:
Originally Posted by awmurray View Post

Now who's questioning the data?

Just so there is no confusion, it was me, an HD DVD supporter, who was questioning the data. So you can't imply hypocrisy on the other camp for it.
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post #563 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

This thread is a roller coaster ride. I never would have expected HD DVD to outsell BD last week. I'm still trying to figure out how this happened.


I'm getting a visual:

Brianmonkey and Sketcha are shuffling papers, calling sources checking the stock market and crying fowl while whipping beads of sweat off there foreheads! The data must be wrong!

The 2 most obnoxious people in this thread imo. Continuously patting each other on the back as if they single handedly won the war themselves.

I can't wait to hear the spin they give this. I'm sure it'll be somewhere along the lines of "its only 1 weeks data, we've got 2 weeks data on our side!!"

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post #564 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

Let me first say thank you, for finding and posting the data. I should have had done this in my post. My bad.

Only the first line of my post was pointing at you, and the rest of the post was aimed at all the BD shills/cheerleaders here. I was just pointing that, just as with your original post in this thread that started all the hoopla, I was surprised when your post on the latest data did not include any analysis.

Curious as to why, that is all !! I would love to hear your analysis, BTW.
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post #565 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

The startup cost of building BD replication machines is no doubt higher than the old HD DVD ones --- unless the HD DVD ones also want to upgrade to new more cost effective technology to make the disks.

But these unit costs to run each disk, once the plants are up and running cannot be too different, because we are talking the same raw materials. Which means the question is if volume increase can be fast enough for production to bury the capital equipment costs. If you make 10 disks/hr, it's difficult to recoup a $1M investment, but if you can make 1000 disks/hr, the economics become easier.

Of course, this is just speculation, as I don't have their exact numbers. I am speaking from a general understanding behind the economics of 130nm vs 90nm wafer. If the tooling costs were a real hindrance to advancement in technology, we'd never have gotten to deep submicron. In fact, we'd still be stuck in discrete transistor land.

And as to whether Sony can sustain this is immaterial to everyone but Sony. As more new plants come online, the economics becomes easier and easier to handle. At this point, the quoted price for hassle-free content that any replication house will produce, is known to all here, and BD25 is quoted cheaper per unit than HD30.

If the new replication houses don't come online fast enough, then the economics don't make sense, and at some point it will be too painful.

But will reports like Nielsen's Videoscan data slow down or accelerate the building of new replication sites? What do you think?

The unit cost can be different even with the same materials if you are considering a higher error rate and a slower throughput rate and if the machines have to "warm up" and be calibrated before starting high yield production runs. Every unusable frisbee you make drives up effective unit costs. Plus a replicator has to recover new capital costs somehow.

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post #566 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Early adopters are what? 2-5% of the market.

I don't know. DVD sold around 300-400k during the first year. HD DVD camp is betting on that early adopter market would not make a big difference and they could have enough time/buffer to bring the mainstream player before Universal blinks. But they also think Sony couldn't delivery enough PS3.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

If you get HD DVD out with lower prices it gets to the public faster and it mutes the cries of the early adopter.

That is what HD DVD camp is betting on. They also betting on bluray DL replication couldn't keep up with the demand once the game enters the mainstream turf. Let's wait and see.

HDPLEX
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post #567 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

lol
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post #568 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:58 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

I'm getting a visual:

Brianmonkey and Sketcha are shuffling papers, calling sources checking the stock market and crying fowl while whipping beads of sweat off there foreheads! The data must be wrong!

The 2 most obnoxious people in this thread imo. Continuously patting each other on the back as if they single handedly won the war themselves.

I can't wait to hear the spin they give this. I'm sure it'll be somewhere along the lines of "its only 1 weeks data, we've got 2 weeks data on our side!!"

oh wahhh! hahah. I never said the war was over in the first place. In fact I've said neither is going away any time soon (both sides have invested way too much money to just quit this early on, yes it is still very early), you might want to work on your comprehension skills just a bit or are you another HD-DVD zealot with extreme selective reading abilities?
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post #569 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 09:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post

If the trend in disk sales continues, blu-ray will win the format war. In that event, blu-ray will not have competitive pressure from Toshiba hardware and HD DVD software. That will allow Sony and others to hold the line on standalone prices. Prices for blu-ray hardware will come down very slowly (glacier pace).

Disk prices may rise. Sony will reduce its subsidies for disk replication. Blu-ray will charge whatever the hd market will bear. PS3 prices will hold steady until economies of scale turn a profit for Sony. Independent movie studios will stay with DVD (given the expense of producing on blu-ray).

People like myself will not buy blu-ray hardware or software (we only got into the game because of affordability) for years, if ever. In other words, the whole introduction of hd hardware will go into reset or default mode, where low prices appear only very slowly. That will keep hd a niche market for longer than if HD DVD were applying pressure.

Sony has bet the bank on this. They are not going to back out of their subsidies until the war is over. Can they afford to do this? Yes. If disk sales continue to rise, studios and other hardware manufacturers will cut them some slack.

The consumer will pay more (at least for longer than otherwise) if there is only one format on the field. I believe that price/performance is still the critical part of this whole competition. Public adoption will be delayed considerably when or if blu-ray wins exclusivity.

The wild card in all of this is the sales number for HD-A2 and HD-XA2. The A2 still is the fifth best-selling DVD player at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...016770-5119945

That is very remarkable for a "niche" product. Even more remarkable is the XA2 in sixteenth place -- a very expensive item for a ranking that high in sales. Just note the "bargain" players all around it.

The A2 sales figures and the attach rate of HD DVDs will be important statistics to add to the mix. One issue with less expensive players, however, is the purchasers are more likely to rent, rather than buy HD DVDs. In that case, the "disk sales war" will not reflect actual use. Of course, studios are more interested in sales than rentals.

If Toshiba's HDTV with player promo falls flat and if sales of the A2 slip, then I think Toshiba has few good cards left in its hand. In that event, the inexpensive Chinese players may never appear in any great quantity. But those are big "ifs."

Once again oh web sage, you saved me the trouble of typing this myself.


The key issue here is the sales of the HD A2 and HD XA2 and the Xbox 360 add on. If they sell, HD DVD will be fine, and your horror story will never happen. If they fail I fear for niche content as well.

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post #570 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

I don't know. DVD sold around 300-400k during the first year. HD DVD camp is betting on that early adopter market would not make a big difference and they could have enough time/buffer to bring the mainstream player before Universal blinks. But they also think Sony couldn't delivery enough PS3.




That is what HD DVD camp is betting on. They also betting on bluray DL replication couldn't keep up with the demand once the game enters the mainstream turf. Let's wait and see.

I'm not sure either. Just guesstimating.

As far as HD-DVD planning on Sony not getting enough PS3's out? I think they would have to have a fool at the helm to believe that.

I guess I don't see HD-DVD as betting this war was as simple as won. I think they accounted for and were expecting all these things to happen. You don't go to the Superbowl hoping for the Quarterback to make allot of turnovers, defense to let your RB have a 200yd game. You go in expecting to play the best team you ever played and make a plan according to that.

I don't think for 1 minute HD-DVD was planning on BD to beat themselves.

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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