Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 2 - AVS Forum
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post #31 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:46 PM
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Got to admit, I think more folks have bought the PS3 as a standalone BD player than I anticipated. If Sony cuts the price to boost sales like they're considering, I just may pull the trigger myself
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post #32 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:46 PM
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People keep pointing out that HD DVD is currently plagued by a lack of good releases, and that is why Blu-Ray has passed up HD DVD in sales. If you look at it that way, it seems HD DVD will always be in a slump, once you compare its upcoming release list to Blu-Ray's.

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post #33 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Mission: Impossible III 59.24
3. Troy 46.58
4. V for Vendetta 44.95
5. Goodfellas 38.20

From this and what I've seen from sales on Amazon, I would say that those who want HD DVD to win should be hoping that it is a long time before "Batman Begins" gets released on Blu-ray and vis versa for Blu-ray fans. "V for Vendetta" is another one that seems to be helping HD DVD by not being out on Blu-ray yet.
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Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio.

As far as "The Departed" it is only preorders that we've seen (with HD DVD leading early and Blu-ray leading now on Amazon), but it wouldn't surprise me if in the end we see "The Departed" sell better on HD DVD than Blu-ray on Amazon and then later find out that it actually sold better on Blu-ray as a whole. There have been at least a couple of things that have made me think that Blu-ray software was already outselling HD DVD software when the Amazon rankings still had HD DVD showing as the leader for the top 10 by about 650 to 1050. The overseas sales might be part of it, but I also suspect that people on this site are more likely to buy from Amazon than the general HD player owners overall, we've known for a while that people were tracking this site, and the population here has favored HD DVD over Blu-ray as a whole for a while. One person mentioned buying movies they wouldn't buy just to support HD DVD, but didn't say where they bought them. That is probably happening some for both sides, but when a group like the one here tends to have more support for one side I think that could skew the results. I hope there isn't cheating going on, but if there were, it would be a whole lot easier to skew the results at Amazon than at general retailers.
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Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.

Universal releasing some good stuff is likely to help especially, but even if it does, the improvement might come from worse numbers for the HD DVD camp than those above, unless the HD DVD camp gets something really positive between now and then. I noticed that the HD-A2 finally started showing a nice ranking position on Amazon this week and the HD-XA2 looks like it is selling very well for a product of that price on Amazon. But with "Casino Royale" and other things coming, it does seem like the HD DVD camp could use some good news between now and April.

--Darin

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post #34 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:52 PM
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According to Fox's prediction, we should be at less than 2:1 for Blu-ray:HD DVD. It appears they underestimated the adoption rate of PS3 owners.
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post #35 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyg View Post

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

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post #36 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:56 PM
 
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I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.
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post #37 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyg View Post

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.
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post #38 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

Agreed. I'd rather save $5 and miss out on extras I'd only watch once, if ever.
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post #39 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean_O View Post

Not surprising since there has been such a glut of new releases on HD DVD.

I'm sure you didn't mean "glut"
http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/glut

....unless you are being ironic.

per the thread topic... Isn't this just another too soon metric that really should be looked at in 6 months?

ted
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post #40 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 03:59 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyg View Post

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

For HD DVD to survive I think you need to have around $1B in software sales for 2007. I don't recall DiVx coming anywhere even close to $200M in software sales in a year!

So, what will it take to get to $1B - 40M disks at the rate of $25. To buy 40M disks you need 4M players where the avg. attachment rate for each player is 10 disks purchased in 2007. AFAIK. MSFT is putting out around 150K drives a month and Tosh another 100K players for a total of around 250K players a month (max). For 12 months, that works out to 3M units (from the big 2). So, in my books, it's not impossible, but going to be hard...I guess the Chinese can add another 1M units

The way I'm seeing it, HD DVD does not have the hardware capacity that BD has. Based on the sales figures, it's clear the HD DVD group recognized it and hence NOW I can see why they didn't make a deal about movie releases, but instead focused on hardware!!!! Makes perfect sense. I didn't check, but looks like a lot of the top titles were not even 50GB disks. And how come Taledega Nights is a top 5 title? Didn't it come for free?????

I love data!!!! A little real data goes a long long way
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post #41 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.

In this war though, consumer critical mass doesn't have to be reached. BD can achieve victory by Universal going neutral - that alone could end it. When their present best-selling titles are also titles that would appeal to the PS3 demographic, there may be a good bit of internal pressure for them to do so also.
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post #42 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post



According to Fox's prediction, we should be at less than 2:1 for Blu-ray:HD DVD. It appears they underestimated the adoption rate of PS3 owners.

They are looking like geniuses, but they also show HD DVD sales declining and then being flat. Not sure if that is also the case. But who knows
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post #43 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

In this war though, consumer critical mass doesn't have to be reached. BD can achieve victory by Universal going neutral - that alone could end it. When their present best-selling titles are also titles that would appeal to the PS3 demographic, there may be a good bit of internal pressure for them to do so also.


That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.
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post #44 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

Hmmm... I'm not saying they will or they won't. But I *am* saying they might. It's a lot more likely than the converse, IMO. (Columbia going over especially is obviously a ridiculous notion, and in an entirely different league, being owned directly by Sony.)

Quote:


"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

That was something that took CES 2007 for many an HD DVD fan to realize; no sooner. Again, Universal going neutral or not, I'm not speaking to... but I am simply saying that if they did, it'd be over right then and there.
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post #45 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:11 PM - Thread Starter
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Gentlemen, please don't bring any aggression into this thread. Otherwise it might get locked and I honestly think it would be a shame.

*********

More information:

From an interview with Jim Bottoms, co-founder of research firm Understanding & Solutions:

* More than 70% of people buying a PS3 have a strong interest in acquiring movies for it.

* Until the PS3 was launched, software sales were probably three to one in HD DVD's favor.

* Once the PS3 came out, BD volume per title grew something like 700%.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
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post #46 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

All it takes for Uni to go neutral is for GE (the parent company) to apply pressure on Universal officer Craig Kornblau, who has underperformed on a scale unimaginable to them 7 years ago when he was appointed head of the distribution arm. He is really the only person that is stopping Uni releasing on BD.
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post #47 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:13 PM
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Does anyone know if the bundled discs that come with either player(s) are included in the Video Scan numbers? If this is the case the PS3 number could be skewing the results of software sales as every PS3 purchased doesn't indicate a a continous movie buying fan.

If the Toshiba discs are included then their numbers would be skewed as well but not as bad since there is no HD DVD device that serves as a game player and movie player. One can then conclude that each HD DVD device purchased is done so with the express purpose of watching movies.
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post #48 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:14 PM
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Good find Grubert. These numbers are pretty bad for HD DVD.
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post #49 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post



According to Fox's prediction, we should be at less than 2:1 for Blu-ray:HD DVD. It appears they underestimated the adoption rate of PS3 owners.

Dang! Anyone remember how hard the HD DVD camp laughed at that graph?

I ASSumed it was just propoganda too, though I figured BD would be leading. Just not by more than double.

You know, it would be one thing if HD DVD had a pile of killer releases just around the corner and BD didn't. But let's be real; the opposite is true. The gap will just widen.
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post #50 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halveb View Post

Does anyone know if the bundled discs that come with either player(s) are included in the Video Scan numbers? If this is the case the PS3 number could be skewing the results of software sales as every PS3 purchased doesn't indicate a a continous movie buying fan.

No, bundled discs are not included in metrics like these.
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post #51 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by DigitalfreakNYC View Post

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

If it's true that Netflix and BB are essentially waiting out this war, then the death of HD DVD will be a boon for those truly interested in watching movies in optical HD.
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post #52 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halveb View Post

Does anyone know if the bundled discs that come with either player(s) are included in the Video Scan numbers? If this is the case the PS3 number could be skewing the results of software sales as every PS3 purchased doesn't indicate a a continous movie buying fan.

If the Toshiba discs are included then their numbers would be skewed as well but not as bad since there is no HD DVD device that serves as a game player and movie player. One can then conclude that each HD DVD device purchased is done so with the express purpose of watching movies.

I don't believe so. I believe that Videoscan numbers only account for actual sales (free discs not being an actual sale).
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post #53 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

They are looking like geniuses, but they also show HD DVD sales declining and then being flat. Not sure if that is also the case. But who knows

Well, I'm forced to agree with your general assessment that as of now, we are pretty much screwed on the HD-DVD side.

Studios obviously didn't care to support HD-DVD further despite strong sales in 2006. They have decided to let the game console trump movie buffs in figuring this thing out.

Glad I'm only out $363 on my HD-A1 and the cost of software.
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post #54 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

If it's true that Netflix and BB are essentially waiting out this war, then the death of HD DVD will be a boon for those truly interested in watching movies in optical HD.

Netflix is also throwing its hat into digital delivery of movies. I'm not sure they are waiting for either format do die but rather mitigating risk by diversifying their delivery of movies.

I'm seeing more data in this thread than what we usually get but It means little because the obvious holes are being filled in with presumptions .

Sony knows that their strategy for the PS3 regarding bunding the Blu-ray drive with the PS3 would be better than Microsofts add on strategy. Ask anyone who's done retail sales about how many people actually return to add on that warranty or add on piece for their purchase. Not many.

The HD DVD add on drive will sell well but Toshibas going to have to get dedicated player out in bunches. There's still too much time and too many things that need to play out before we have winner.

What we have right now are glorified DVD players with slightly better menus. I'm looking for a more complete system that only will come with the maturation of both formats.
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post #55 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:27 PM
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Do people remember when HD-DVD folks were saying it was over when it was 3:1 in their favor? I think it's way too early to declare a winner here. Personally, I still don't think they will be a winner, but that's just me. Universal is dropping a lot of titles I want this year so I'm guessing I'll have a lot on either format and some big titles from Warner may be HD-DVD only as BD-J gets up to speed.

Just remember - how many total discs do you think were sold if BR can make up 7% over time in one week? These formats are still very much a drop in the bucket.
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post #56 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Well, I'm forced to agree with your general assessment that as of now, we are pretty much screwed on the HD-DVD side.

Studios obviously didn't care to support HD-DVD further despite strong sales in 2006. They have decided to let the game console trump movie buffs in figuring this thing out.

Glad I'm only out $363 on my HD-A1 and the cost of software.


Take a breath Jim. You're sounding defeatist. Everyone has their bad days but sometimes you just have to step back a bit. Churchill is Churchill because he didn't say "Well I guess Britain is finished" . Hang in there.
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post #57 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

Those numbers sure don't look like they are going to apply much pressure toward the Blu-ray exclusive studios. And these numbers don't even count Japan, where I think even HD DVD fans who are honest have to wonder how Toshiba could possibly get a win there.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #58 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schlotkins View Post

Do people remember when HD-DVD folks were saying it was over when it was 3:1 in their favor? I think it's way too early to declare a winner here. Personally, I still don't think they will be a winner, but that's just me. Universal is dropping a lot of titles I want this year so I'm guessing I'll have a lot on either format and some big titles from Warner may be HD-DVD only as BD-J gets up to speed.

Just remember - how many total discs do you think were sold if BR can make up 7% over time in one week? These formats are still very much a drop in the bucket.

Great post.
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post #59 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure.

Technically you are correct, of course.

However, if anyone in Universal can read, there is pressure.

It's one of those if, then kind of things. Remember Postulates in Geometry? You know, if it walks like a duck...
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post #60 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:30 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Dang! Anyone remember how hard the HD DVD camp laughed at that graph?

I ASSumed it was just propoganda too, though I figured BD would be leading. Just not by more than double.

You know, it would be one thing if HD DVD had a pile of killer releases just around the corner and BD didn't. But let's be real; the opposite is true. The gap will just widen.

True. That is what it would appear to be. However, 2 weeks is a short interval to conclude the outcome....but great news for BD.
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