Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 22 - AVS Forum
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post #631 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Again, I think that 2007 volumes just simply demolish their equivalent 2006 volumes. In that sense these numbers can line up.

The fact of the matter is though, that if BD vs HD sales figures are to remain an ingrained aspect of the AVS culture (which seems to be the case), then we need to pick a tool we can all agree on to form the cornerstone of debates on the matter.

Nielsen/Videoscan is as good as any, and better than most.

So I say we just use this as the 'official' metric from here on out, and so long as they are consistent in their methods, whether right or wrong, it will always be apples to apples. As volumes increase, inconsistencies should be hammered out.

Amazon and DVDEmpire can still make useful secondary data points to reference the Nielsen numbers against, since we know online is big in this war, but everything else aside I say we just adopt the Nielsen as the banner metric.

I would think December 06 would have more sales than January 06, for obvious reasons. But maybe not.

I agree that Videoscan is the best evidence available. Now that we have that, we don't need those lessor sources. At the same time, one would expect a trend in one source to be seen in the other 2. When Videoscan is in diametric opposition to the other sources, it should be looked into in my opinion.
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post #632 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Why does everyone insist on referencing Amazon or DVD Empire. Sales at B&M's like Best Buy, Target, Circuit City, Meijers, Frys, etc. are going to far out weigh DVD Empire and Amazon.

Its because we don't have access to the B& M numbers and the oneline numbers we do have access to tend to match those B&M sales numbers over time and show the same trends.

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post #633 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Because that is the data we have access to. Videoscan is the best indicator, but that doesn't make it perfect. I would have more confidence in the videoscan numbers if it were backed up by those other sources, rather than refuted by them.

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan.
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post #634 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:05 AM
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I still want to see units sold. Would make things much easier, but of course less fun
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post #635 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Can't argue.

Got carried away. I felt it happening and, if you care to look back severl pages, you would notice a slight, but noticeable swing back to the rational. Too little, too late, I guess.

No, I am not imune to irrational exuberance. It's certainly sobering.

Actually, it's kind of funny. Plaz and I had a PM discussion about this between last night and this morning.


EDIT: Oh, and thank you for giving me the credit of at least acting rational some time.

Well, nobody likes soar winners. Especially when they are being obtuse just for the sake of.

Just as long as the person who dishes it out can take it when its dished back. I'm more accepting of it!

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post #636 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan.

Amazon's online sales for both books and DVDs are a much higher percentage than that.

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post #637 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:09 AM
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I was reading on DVD Talk that there was a BD "buy 1 get 1 deal" at Best Buy during the week of 1/14-1/21/07. I raise this mostly to point out that such sales incentives can have an impact on a week's results that may contribute to a misleading trend. Oddly In this case HD seems to have improved during this week in spite of this offering, presumably due in part to better new releases that week.

"Best Buy Jan 14-20

Blu-Ray:
Buy 1, Get 1 Free This Week - Offer Good only on these 7 Titles:

$24.99 Each:
House of Flying Daggers
Kung Fu Hustle
Black Hawk Down

$29.99 Each:
Monster House
Click
Talladega Nights: Ballad Of Ricky Bobby
Underworld: Evolution"

I don't know to what extent these deals can have an impact, I just figure they should be considered if folks are going to analyze this stuff each week.
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post #638 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Well it may not have been at DVD empire as we have comparable sales ratios between the formats there.

For Amazon, which has vastly more volume, we don't have a sales ratio, we only have the rankings baskets. Maybe a lot of the older titles in the top 1000 each gained a little. Maybe if we looked at the hdgamedb site for all teh older HD DVD titles for 14 days we could see a spike?

I did, BD first passed HD DVD on Amazon as of Jan 21. It has stayed ahead since.

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post #639 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Amazon's online sales for both books and DVDs are a much higher percentage than that.

no Amazon is only one retail outlet of thousands, so it is less than 1% of retail outlets. Videoscan covers about 66% of retail outlets.
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post #640 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan.

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary


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post #641 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbh View Post

I don't know to what extent these deals can have an impact, I just figure they should be considered if folks are going to analyze this stuff each week.

Sure, offers like that can *definitely* have an impact, but I don't think their effects are paradigm-shifting. Consider that the only title that made the Top 5 from that offer list was Blackhawk Down, and frankly... Blackhawk is one of the best BD performers week in and week out. In fact I believe it is the single most widely owned BD on this forum, from the polls conducted here.
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post #642 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Andrew P View Post

I still want to see units sold. Would make things much easier, but of course less fun

Videoscan and other reporting outlets deliberately do not publish those sales volumes because no one wants them to for competitive reasons (too easy to multiply sold x price = sales) Better to give out dollar amounts only when you want to from the studio viewpoint. Pretty much the sme for a lot of published retail stats.

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post #643 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:18 AM
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People here are underestimating how many HD-DVD and Blu-ray players came on the market in late Nov/Dec. Prior to that point, the number of HD-DVD units was close to 50-70k and the number of Blu-ray players was much lower than that. Then you need to add the liquations of the 1st generation HD-DVD players, the A2's, and the add-ons. I think it's pretty arguable the number of players for the 21st week was 200kish for HD-DVD. On the blu-ray side, of course, you have the PS3 coming on line.

Hence, I think probably each weeks sales equals Nov sales at this point. The volume is probably pretty darn large.
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post #644 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:18 AM
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As I recall, HD DVD had more releases that week than Blu-Ray:

Blu-Ray

* Employee of the Month (Lionsgate)
* GoodFellas (Warner)
* Gridiron Gang (Sony)
* Resident Evil: Apocalypse (Sony)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)

HD DVD

* Clerks II (Weinstein)
* Lucky Number Slevin (Weinstein)
* The Mummy Returns (Universal)
* Poseidon (Warner)
* Pulse (Weinstein)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)
* The Sting (Universal

Its quite obvious why HD DVD outsold Blu-Ray this week ...no worthwhile content on the Blu-Ray side. Now if content is key ...HD DVD is in for a whole lot of hurting soon

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #645 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Well, nobody likes soar winners. Especially when they are being obtuse just for the sake of.

Just as long as the person who dishes it out can take it when its dished back. I'm more accepting of it!

Ironically you are beginning to go down that path yourself. How much more would you like to say on the subject?

As far as taking it, of course you're right. I would expect no less if the situation were reversed.

Also, may I again remind you that several HD DVD campers jumped to conclusions before I did. Fortunately for them, they came around before I was forced to.

It looks like hmurchison was right, after all to tell jmpage2 to "hang in there."

This thread is too funny.

I don't have a mirror, yet I can feel the abrasions from the rag wiping my face. Is there still egg on it?

(still wiping)
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post #646 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary

Amazon sells a lot more than any usual retail outlet.

IIRC , its at least 5% and maybe even 10% of all DVD sales in the US. Its a surprisingly large number , but a bit hidden since it has to be derived by looking at their dollar volume and percentage of sales that DVD gives them.

Its a very large number and percentage though. Much more than any other online DVD retailer.

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post #647 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

As I recall, HD DVD had more releases that week than Blu-Ray:

Blu-Ray

* Employee of the Month (Lionsgate)
* GoodFellas (Warner)
* Gridiron Gang (Sony)
* Resident Evil: Apocalypse (Sony)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)

HD DVD

* Clerks II (Weinstein)
* Lucky Number Slevin (Weinstein)
* The Mummy Returns (Universal)
* Poseidon (Warner)
* Pulse (Weinstein)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)
* The Sting (Universal

Its quite obvious why HD DVD outsold Blu-Ray this week ...no worthwhile content on the Blu-Ray side. Now if you content is key ...HD DVD is in for a whole lot of hurting soon

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary


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post #648 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.

Don't take this as fact, but a few years ago, I believe Amazon sold 22% of all online DVD sales. Online sales of DVD accounted for 20-25% of all DVD sales. This would mean that Amazon accounted for 4.4-5.5% of all DVD sales. However, all I've heard the past few years is how Amazon was loosing market share. However, I don't know how much was lost to other online stores vs. B&M's. If you assume that all was lost to other online stores, then online would still account for 25% of DVD sales.

If it is similar today for hi-def formats, Amazon my represent 5% of all hi-def sales, but Videoscan obviously represents a large percentage of the 75% of sales that are B&M. It would obviously be much higher than the 5% represented by Amazon. I would say it at least represents 50%of all hi-def sales, if not more. This would make it an order of magnitude better than Amazon for determining sales trends.
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post #649 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schlotkins View Post

People here are underestimating how many HD-DVD and Blu-ray players came on the market in late Nov/Dec. Prior to that point, the number of HD-DVD units was close to 50-70k and the number of Blu-ray players was much lower than that. Then you need to add the liquations of the 1st generation HD-DVD players, the A2's, and the add-ons. I think it's pretty arguable the number of players for the 21st week was 200kish for HD-DVD. On the blu-ray side, of course, you have the PS3 coming on line.

Hence, I think probably each weeks sales equals Nov sales at this point. The volume is probably pretty darn large.

Sounds like an old time boxing match

in this corner, in the Blue shorts, we have the PS3, who came outta nowhere to shake up things, sitting ringside are the other Blu standalones

over here in the opposing corner, in the red shorts, we have the new kid just off the boats, the new , the improved HD A2, hoping to pick right up where his slightly chunky older brother the HD A1 left off , sitting in his corner adding morale support is the Xbox HD DVD add on ......

Ding...

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post #650 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.

Also, the Amazon numbers we see represent "popularity", including pre-orders. The Videoscan numbers represent actual sales, which don't occur until release day.

So, the Amazon numbers may foreshadow the future results. But, the two are apples and oranges for a given week.

Gary


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post #651 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

Goodfella is a nonexclusive catalog title ...you know new titles always outsell catalog ones. Goodfellas has already been out on the HD DVD side. Crank, which was at least 1 week old, was still the number #1 Blu-Ray title with these new releases. Thats how bad these new releases were.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #652 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

Preorders don't really get factored into Videoscan numbers at all. I don't think I've been into a retail store that allows me to preorder DVD titles. Videoscan works by counting barcode scans. Online retailers don't scan barcodes, so online sales (and preorders) don't count towards the Videoscan numbers. Videoscan numbers are actual customers, walking into a Best Buy, and paying for the movie at checkout. There could be a few small specialty B&M's that do preorders, and finish the transaction with a barcode scan when the items arrive, but I think they would be few and far between.
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post #653 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

I don't know, that's kind of how I had assumed it worked. Pre-order get counted at the point of sell, not upon ordering. So for the first two weeks, when BD was leading, I assumed that was going on. And now, I also assume it's going on.

I'm still puzzled by all of this.
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post #654 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.

Don't take this as fact, but a few years ago, I believe Amazon sold 22% of all online DVD sales. Online sales of DVD accounted for 20-25% of all DVD sales. This would mean that Amazon accounted for 4.4-5.5% of all DVD sales. However, all I've heard the past few years is how Amazon was loosing market share. However, I don't know how much was lost to other online stores vs. B&M's. If you assume that all was lost to other online stores, then online would still account for 25% of DVD sales.

If it is similar today for hi-def formats, Amazon my represent 5% of all hi-def sales, but Videoscan obviously represents a large percentage of the 75% of sales that are B&M. It would obviously be much higher than the 5% represented by Amazon. I would say it at least represents 50%of all hi-def sales, if not more. This would make it an order of magnitude better than Amazon for determining sales trends.

Kinda my rrecollection too, except I think Amazons % of DVD sales actually went up and were a bright light for them.

If Amazon's sales are representative of B&M in the long term, and I think they aer (probably lagging) tehn a 5-10% sample of all DVD sales in our tracking sites is a huge sample size and should overall give equal data. It probably lags the B&M stuff for initial player attached movie sales.

If this data is correct and Amazon sales are representative, but lagging, then we should see a rise in the Amazon stats for HD DVD within a few days certainly within a few weeks.

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post #655 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I'm still puzzled by all of this.

Me too.

It seem that if HD DVD could get 10 points or so of SI, then it should have gained much more YTD.

No?
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post #656 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Sounds like an old time boxing match

in this corner, in the Blue shorts, we have the PS3, who came outta nowhere to shake up things, sitting ringside are the other Blu standalones

Except the only thing the PS3 has beat down so far is some folks' credibility.

All the credit for HD DVD's supposed beating was laid at the feet of the PS3.
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In the new HD era, Amazon *has* to be an outsized portion of the sales percentage.

I'm still of the opinion that Nielsen is the way to go from here on out, but when Amazon is the singular measure used up until now, when Amazon offers free shipping, when they offer the best prices, when they offer superior selection, and when they are discussed daily on sites such as these... I think the early adopters - which tend to be more educated than most - would work to give Amazon a greater percentage of HD sales than whatever their historical average for SD DVD is.

Maybe Amazon's role as a percentage of sales changed too in the post-November 06 era, but I still feel that they are a significant presence.

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Originally Posted by awmurray View Post

Except the only thing the PS3 has beat down so far is some folks' credibility.

All the credit for HD DVD's supposed beating was laid at the feet of the PS3.

Whether BD is winning or losing at any given moment, you'd be daft to think that the PS3 is not the present champion of the format.
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post #658 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I'm still puzzled by all of this.

Me too.

Sketcha, in your case, I think it's a stroke.
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post #659 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:47 AM
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Things happen on the release schedules for both sides every week. Weekly stats will bounce around depending what's selling. Per chance might this have an effect on the next numbers ??
Quote:


Debuting on DVD and
Blu-ray disc, the psychological thriller from Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF), the
premier independent filmed entertainment studio, and Twisted Pictures sold
1.6 million units its first day and finished the week in the top spot with
2.5 million units sold. Also, according to Rentrak Home Essentials, SAW III
Blu-Ray disc is the largest and most successful Blu-Ray debut to date.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...4518543&EDATE=

b2b

"Listen, You Pencil Neck Geeks.." 'Classy' Freddie Blassie ~ 1918-2003
A Toshiba spokesman, said that "from an engineer's point of view, the Blu-ray is a masterpiece.."
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post #660 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

In the new HD era, Amazon *has* to be an outsized portion of the sales percentage.

I'm still of the opinion that Nielsen is the way to go from here on out, but when Amazon is the singular measure used up until now, when Amazon offers free shipping, when they offer the best prices, when they offer superior selection, and when they are discussed daily on sites such as these... I think the early adopters - which tend to be more educated than most - would work to give Amazon a greater percentage of HD sales than whatever their historical average for SD DVD is.

Maybe Amazon's role as a percentage of sales changed too in the post-November 06 era, but I still feel that they are a significant presence.



Whether BD is winning or losing at any given moment, you'd be daft to think that the PS3 is not the present champion of the format.

I don't think Amazon was that big of a factor in Nov/Dec because of Buy's $10 off $30 and $20 off $50. Real savvy buyers leaped on this deals. I will also point out some of my family memebers DVD buying habits. They have widescreen TV's and DVD players, but they don't have internet connections. No online sales there even though they know they are cheaper.
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