[quote=Sketcha]Personally, I would go with SI. HD DVD is still in the lead.
I was hoping for a trend that would put BD in the lead by now, which would've really been something, at least I thought. Ah, didn't happen.
Bottom line, leader or not, the race has only, just begun.[/QUOTE]
I believe a clearer picture will start emerging before the holiday season in 2007. My own guess is that the BDA strategy is to end HD DVD before they can get to the 2-4 M player range. At 2M HD DVD players, if we assume an attachment rate of 10, we are talking 20M disks at $25 a disk that would amount to a $500M market. I am sure studios would like to serve that market. At 4 M players we are talking about a $1B market. This would not be VHS v. Beta at that point....
Also, as more titles are available on both formats, the issue of content becomes less important. Like someone said, a person who buys a new HD DVD or BD player today has a choice of appox. 200 titles to choose from. By the end of the year, it could be 600 for HD DVD and 850 for BD....at some point, there are enough titles that it is no longer a huge factor.
I was also looking at the hardware sales on Amazon. It's amazing to me that the Toshiba A-2 has a higher sales rank than the xbox add on drive. If that continues, it's a positive for the HD DVD side. Most studios will tell you that they are closely watching hardware sales. When they see strong sales for a dedicated machine like the A-2, it sends a very strong signal.
I totally agree with you, in that we are in the early stages still, but things move quickly. Hence you see the huge advertising and general FUD campaing being launched by Sony. JMHO.