Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 25 - AVS Forum
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post #721 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

Sorry that I haven't kept up with all the posts in this thread over the last day (they are coming in fast). I am impressed that HD DVD did as well as it looks like they did for the week ending the 21st. Not just winning, but looking like they won by a good margin. As I said yesterday:
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

BTW: Looking at the titles released on 1/16/07, it wouldn't shock me if Videoscan actually shows HD DVD in the lead for the week ending 1/21/07.

but it was still impressive IMO. One of the problems for the HD DVD camp is that the 16th looks like the last week where they have more and better titles (at least in my view based on box office receipts and things) until March 6th, when they have one title scheduled and Blu-ray doesn't have any.

I admit that I am confused about how HD DVD could gain 12 points YTD and 10 points Since Inception (or something like that) in one week, but I'll have to look and see if you guys figured out how that could happen.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #722 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

First I would point out that all of what you have just said is irrelevent to the question of "what day should be counted as the formats launch date." Yes, the PS3 was more important to BD than the add-on to the HD DVD, but no one ever said otherwise.

Appearently, we are now selling ~15% of our SI each week. That must mean we are selling a lot more now than we were at the begining of both formats lives. So my first point is, if we are asking "when should we say the formats have launched" I think the very low volume pre-add-on suggest the sales didn't really start moving until the add-on came on the scene. So if you want to say that the format didn't launch until it really started selling, for both HD DVD and BD, that wasn't until very recently. Everything prior to this was chickin feed, appearently. It wouldn't be fair to say the BD didn't lanuch until recently but HD DVD did many months ago, if your logic is that there weren't really many sells prior to the launch of the PS3. Because that was true for both formats.


Second, I think it's established that the add-on is the highest selling HD DVD player, and in fact sells more than the rest of the HD DVD players added together. Putting 2 and 2 together would lead one to believe that the add-on, while not as important to HD DVD as PS3 is to BD, is important to HD DVD. So, if one wants to pretend that BD launched when the PS3 launched, then the same should apply to HD DVD.

To sum it all up, sells in both formats have shot up recently. That has to be due to something. Whatever that something is, you can either use that as the real launch date, or you can use the actual launch date that is official. I prefer the official one.

I appreciate the detailed response, but you could have save yourself some time had you just answered my question about the volume of add-on sales and left it at that.

I was not aware that add-ons had sold that heavily. If that is, indeed the case, then I will stand behind your statement to HH.

Either way, it certainly does look like sales for both have really spiked. I suspect there were plenty of HD DVD players, standalones and add-ons waiting to be unwrapped just like there were PS3s.

I hope the volume increases continue. Bodes well for HD optical.
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post #723 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wreckshop View Post

So why don't they just buy DVD instead of BD if all they are trying to do is get some usage out of their PS3?

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

Well, we will find out soon enough, won't we ?

I am from europe and region-coding is a big factor there, 'cause enthusiasts want to be able to import our US released movies. Also, as much as you'd like to believe europeans' buying power is higher than US' buying power, it's just not the case. Cost of living there is not better than here. I take it you know so many people living in europe that you already know the market is eagerly awaiting PS3 to jump on BR movies. Ok...

My opinion is that PS3 will sell the same way there as it has been selling in other countries. And yes it will result in a surge for BR at first. But isn't what matters the long term ? Declaring an all-out winner this early on is the only thing that should be characterized as "spin", not the other way around.

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post #724 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Sorry that I haven't kept up with all the posts in this thread over the last day (they are coming in fast). I am impressed that HD DVD did as well as it looks like they did for the week ending the 21st. Not just winning, but looking like they won by a good margin. As I said yesterday:
but it was still impressive IMO. One of the problems for the HD DVD camp is that the 16th looks like the last week where they have more and better titles (at least in my view based on box office receipts and things) until March 6th, when they have one title scheduled and Blu-ray doesn't have any.

I admit that I am confused about how HD DVD could gain 12 points YTD and 10 points Since Inception (or something like that) in one week, but I'll have to look and see if you guys figured out how that could happen.

--Darin

I think the only way it could happen is with a massive spike in sales for both formats after the 1st of the year. So much for the January slump. Maybe that only works for expensive things like consoles. I'm guessing everyone wanted new material for their Christmas presents.
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post #725 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wreckshop View Post

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

French people are "desperately" seeking Xbox 360 HD DVD Player :
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...700&start=4530

French people are "desperately" waiting for Toshiba HD-XE1:
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...asc&start=5310

Latest French HT forum's poll results:
. HD DVD: 68%
. Blu-ray: 15%
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...php?t=29841047

Main HD DVD advantages:
. price
. no region coding
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post #726 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Well it could happen if HD DVD actually substantially outsold Blu-ray in the last week. That would still be consistent with Blu-ray still leading year to date, but at a lower spread and HD DVD raising its SI lead.

It would seem to have to be a large HD DVD sales lead for the last week for that to happen.

Maybe the HD A2 sales are kicking in?

I've been saying this all along: if you've just purchased a player, there are over 200 "new" movies for you waiting on HD DVD.
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post #727 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by eurotrance View Post

Well, we will find out soon enough, won't we ?

I am from europe and region-coding is a big factor there, 'cause enthusiasts want to be able to import our US released movies. Also, as much as you'd like to believe europeans' buying power is higher than US' buying power, it's just not the case. Cost of living there is not better than here. I take it you know so many people living in europe that you already know the market is eagerly awaiting PS3 to jump on BR movies. Ok...

My opinion is that PS3 will sell the same way there as it has been selling in other countries. And yes it will result in a surge for BR at first. But isn't what matters the long term ? Declaring an all-out winner this early on is the only thing that should be characterized as "spin", not the other way around.

Looks like DanielTS just backed up your region coding theory. Certainly makes sense.
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post #728 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

I appreciate the detailed response, but you could have save yourself some time had you just answered my question about the volume of add-on sales and left it at that.

I was not aware that add-ons had sold that heavily. If that is, indeed the case, then I will stand behind your statement to HH.

Either way, it certainly does look like sales for both have really spiked. I suspect there were plenty of HD DVD players, standalones and add-ons waiting to be unwrapped just like there were PS3s.

I hope the volume increases continue. Bodes well for HD optical.

I hope that this volume increase will be significant enough that we don't end up with a niche product like we did with Laserdisc, kind of a stop-gap format before the next one. I'm hoping we can keep HD optical for a good number of years but I'm not so sure it will happen.

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post #729 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:44 PM
 
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Darin, you are one smart cookie and I mean that in the most respectful way. Your analysis and honesty in what you say and write are truly an inspiration for me

Hey, count me as a fan. Even when I don't agree. I read through a number of posts and you are spot on. Very insightful.
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post #730 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Can't argue.

Got carried away. I felt it happening and, if you care to look back severl pages, you would notice a slight, but noticeable swing back to the rational. Too little, too late, I guess.

No, I am not imune to irrational exuberance. It's certainly sobering.

Actually, it's kind of funny. Plaz and I had a PM discussion about this between last night and this morning.


EDIT: Oh, and thank you for giving me the credit of at least acting rational some time.

What the hell is going on here? We're all getting civil and acting like adults!
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post #731 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

It indicated more than just that.

It showed that the "PS3 effect" wasn't so large that it took HD DVD out of the game, and that even after the launch of the PS3, BD doesn't have a consistent lead. Some weeks HD DVD will sale more, and some BD will sale more.

Days ago people believed the format war was over, now it appears more even then before. BD has the lead, but the gap isn't wide.

Also, rightfully or wrongfully, there's a consensus building around the fact that it is the titles that are causing more sales for BD, not the hardware install base. If true, that has some implications.

How do you get BD has the lead? HD-DVD still has the lead according to these numbers.
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post #732 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielTS View Post

French people are "desperately" seeking Xbox 360 HD DVD Player :
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...700&start=4530

French people are "desperately" waiting for Toshiba HD-XE1:
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...asc&start=5310

Latest French HT forum's poll results:
. HD DVD: 68%
. Blu-ray: 15%
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/v...php?t=29841047

Main HD DVD advantages:
. price
. no region coding

Like I have stated before, France (my country of origin) is the biggest market after the USA when it comes to video. They are the fastest adopting country in Europe for new technologies. They also have the biggest video distributors for the continent, such as Pathe and Studio Canal. UK is actually way slower in adoption rate. And one more thing : price matters very much in that country. If they see one format has the same PQ/AQ for a cheaper cost of entry, they will buy the cheaper one, especially when that is the format with no region coding.

PS3 will not sell any faster in europe than it is selling in other countries. If Japan sales are slow, don't hope for a reversal of situation in europe.

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post #733 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Let's compare the numbers to the number of releases:

YTD

Percentage of market (Percentage of releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 47.14 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 38.36 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 100 (41.6)
HD DVD: 50.51 (58.3)

I'm sure you could find a linear (or quadratic, if you love math) relation between the two. Anyone want to extrapolate the data based on release percentages?

01/28
Blu-ray: ? (85.7)
HD DVD: ? (14.3)

I don't think you have enough data points to generate any type of trend.
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post #734 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

How do you get BD has the lead? HD-DVD still has the lead according to these numbers.

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.
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post #735 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.

Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

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post #736 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Here's one analysis

Let:

X - BD SI as of Jan 14
x - sales for week of Jan 21
Y - HD DVD SI as of Jan 14
y - sale for week of Jan 21

X/Y = 0.93
(X+x)/(Y+y) = 0.83

X + x = 0.83(Y + y)
X + x = 0.83Y + 0.83y
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - X (now substitute X = 0.93Y)
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - 0.93Y
x = 0.83y - 0.1Y (divide both sides by y)
x/y = 0.83 - 0.1(Y/y)

Y/y is the ratio of SI sales to one week sales for HD DVD.

x/y must be >= 0, and 0 occurs at Y/y = 8.3 (12%)

But of course, it must be more than 0. If it was 2:1 for HD DVD in that week (x/y = 0.5) then that means Y/y = 5.3 or about 18.9% of SI up until that week.

Multi-months of pre-orders are resulting in BIG numbers being dumped into the situation on release days now. And that is causing some wild changes.

Gary

No they aren't. Preorders are not a factor in this at all, as B&M's don't do pre-orders, and online exclusive retailers are not included in the numbers.

Let's get away from this myth that swings are caused by preorders.
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post #737 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

I should see if I can pop the BD number out from the previous weeks changes. I wouldn't be surprised if 70% of BD SI sales occured in January.

How else could BD have gotten to 93% of HD DVD so quickly?

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Actually, the Amazon numbers are now explained. I was wondering how Serenity managed to be ranking so well, so long after release. Now we know. The HD DVD numbers have popped big too.

Gary

Previous calcuations show BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. That is how they got to 93% so quickly. It didn't all happen in January.
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post #738 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by wreckshop View Post

So why don't they just buy DVD instead of BD if all they are trying to do is get some usage out of their PS3?

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

Maybe because the PS3 doesn't up convert DVDs?
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post #739 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eurotrance View Post

I hope that this volume increase will be significant enough that we don't end up with a niche product like we did with Laserdisc, kind of a stop-gap format before the next one. I'm hoping we can keep HD optical for a good number of years but I'm not so sure it will happen.

Don't talk like that.

Of course I'm sure none of us on this forum want that. Personally, I don't feel it's nearly as much of a danger as what laserdisc was up against.

From what I've read, HDTV sales have shot up this year much more than expected. Eventually these new buyers will make the next step.

Of course prices really need to come down. It really sucks that BD hardware is so expensive. But the Sammy has come down and I'm optomistic that there will be some fairly inexpensive hardware on the market before too long. Even if the Sammy, RCA, Phillips and later Sharp are not good players by our standards, they will probably impress the he11 out of J6P's older, more well-to-do brother.

Time will tell, of course.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the Super Bowl will/has done for additional HDTV sales! Come on BABY!!!
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post #740 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Previous calcu;ations show BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. That is how they got to 93% last year.

Why are you claiming that they got to 93% last year? The data in this thread doesn't support that.

--Darin

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post #741 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by SamwisetheBrave View Post

What the hell is going on here? We're all getting civil and acting like adults!

Don't be afraid, young Samwise. Remember, I told you, you were on the right path. Well, now I am too. Hopefully I won't slip and fall down in to the cracks of Doom again.

Holding breath!
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post #742 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.

Personally, I would go with SI. HD DVD is still in the lead.

I was hoping for a trend that would put BD in the lead by now, which would've really been something, at least I thought. Ah, didn't happen.

Bottom line, leader or not, the race has only, just begun.
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post #743 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eurotrance View Post

Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

The first time it happened was a little over a year ago. There were polls put up suggesting HD DVD wouldn't even come out. Now, it's happened again. I think it's a rite that we have here annually. We declare HD DVD dead in order to welcome in spring and the new year. I'm already looking forward to next spring so that I can read HD DVD's obituary again.

Here is my favorite post, (which is no reflection on xbdestroya, whom I really think is a thoughtful poster)

Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

I feel like hosting a DC Area BD victory party. (Plazman, maybe you can come!) I think Washington has got to be one of - if not *the* - most heavily represented area of the country on this entire forum.

We'll watch movies and play games on the PS3.


Oh, good times.
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post #744 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Why are you claiming that they got to 93% last year? The data in this thread doesn't support that.

--Darin

Corrected. I changed my train of thought and didn't delete last year. BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. It isn't like they magically jumped to 92% because of
the first two weeks of January. Most of the work was done in 2006.
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post #745 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

I have updated the numbers to reflect percentage of market (not normalized to 100):

YTD: Percentage of Market (Percentage of Releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 67.96 (100)
HD DVD: 32.04 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 72.28 (100)
HD DVD: 27.72 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 66.44 (41.6)
HD DVD: 33.56 (58.3)

The formula I used was 10,000/(100+H)=B where B=% of BD and H=% of HD.

This shows no correlation between releases and share. Looks like BD ends up with 66-70% of the market irrespective of the percent of titles released. Am I missing something in this analysis, or is your point that number of releases has no bearing on market share??????
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post #746 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

The first time it happened was a little over a year ago. There were polls put up suggesting HD DVD wouldn't even come out. Now, it's happened again. I think it's a yearly rite that we have here annually. We declare HD DVD dead in order to welcome in spring and the new year. I'm already looking forward to next spring so that I can read HD DVD's obituary again.

Here is my favorite post, (which is no reflection on xbdestroya, whom I really think is a thoughtful poster)




Oh, good times.

Kind of reminds one of the Sammy launch and all that Mpeg2/VC1 speculation. Anyone remember that?

Are we really one better than the other?
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post #747 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:22 PM
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I don't think you have enough data points to generate any type of trend.

You don't need a single data point if you already made your conclusions before looking at the data..
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post #748 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:26 PM
 
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[quote=Sketcha]Personally, I would go with SI. HD DVD is still in the lead.

I was hoping for a trend that would put BD in the lead by now, which would've really been something, at least I thought. Ah, didn't happen.

Bottom line, leader or not, the race has only, just begun.[/QUOTE]

I believe a clearer picture will start emerging before the holiday season in 2007. My own guess is that the BDA strategy is to end HD DVD before they can get to the 2-4 M player range. At 2M HD DVD players, if we assume an attachment rate of 10, we are talking 20M disks at $25 a disk that would amount to a $500M market. I am sure studios would like to serve that market. At 4 M players we are talking about a $1B market. This would not be VHS v. Beta at that point....

Also, as more titles are available on both formats, the issue of content becomes less important. Like someone said, a person who buys a new HD DVD or BD player today has a choice of appox. 200 titles to choose from. By the end of the year, it could be 600 for HD DVD and 850 for BD....at some point, there are enough titles that it is no longer a huge factor.

I was also looking at the hardware sales on Amazon. It's amazing to me that the Toshiba A-2 has a higher sales rank than the xbox add on drive. If that continues, it's a positive for the HD DVD side. Most studios will tell you that they are closely watching hardware sales. When they see strong sales for a dedicated machine like the A-2, it sends a very strong signal.

I totally agree with you, in that we are in the early stages still, but things move quickly. Hence you see the huge advertising and general FUD campaing being launched by Sony. JMHO.
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post #749 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:31 PM
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Oh, good times.

LOL, ok well the party's going ahead anyway... you can't stop the bumrush!

But HD DVDs will now be welcome as well.
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post #750 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:31 PM
 
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Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

I can guarantee we will see another article about the demise of HD DVD on Digital Bits for sure! You can count on that always
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