Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 28 - AVS Forum
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post #811 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

I think if you look back at the predictions I made (most recently after CES in an article that I wrote), you will find that the recent Videoscan news is very compatible with some of the things I suggested would happen.

Since you ask for specific predictions, let me put on my turbin and see what I can come up with.

I predict that by summer (specifically by VSDA) the format war will be looking a lot different.
-- Sales will be way up for Blu-ray, continuing their current trend.
-- Weinstein will start Blu-ray support. [Harvey Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state, he will not miss this opportunity.] This has only psychological impact of course since Weinstein has few titles.
-- There will be pressure on Universal to use THD (effectively going neutral).

I further predict that by CES 2008 the matter will be resolved.
-- All studios will be supporting Blu-ray, and only legacy support for HD DVD will be happening. Studios that supported HD DVD will continue for the present but the handwriting will be on the wall.
-- Toshiba will announce combo players or outright Blu-ray players.
-- HDTV sales will be much higher than currently expected.
-- Blu-ray sales will be much higher than expected with a clear path to adoption of Blu-ray as the successor to DVD.
-- Meridian will announce a high-end Blu-ray player (with no mention of their ostensible HD DVD player).

I wish I could add universal peace and an end to global warming but this is the best I can do.

I base this on the following:
-- CE, retailer, and studio support for Blu-ray, coupled with a strong desire to end the format war
-- Current and projected title announcements
-- Current player announcements
-- Most of all, current sales trends.

[I don't really know that this will happen. But you asked for specifics, so I am willing to go with this and eat crow accordingly. I am sure your predictions are as likely to come true as mine are BTW.]


Did some make a fresh bath of Kool-Aid!!!!!!!!!

Buckle up and hold my beer I wanna try somethin'
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post #812 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 03:03 AM
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Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable!

Not really. Why would Blu-ray sales go down by two thirds from one week to the next?

It seems obvious that there is an error in the posted numbers somewhere. But we don't know which of the numbers is incorrect. Maybe one of the previous weeks contained the error, who knows.

But really, I think it makes the most sense that the YTD ratio of the third week is incorrect and should be higher than 100 : 50.51.
Maybe it's 100 : 80.51 or something, that would probably get the numbers to match more easily.
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post #813 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

That number though would not sync up at all with the data sets provided. The data set numbers won't sync up with *any* numbers.

Would the numbers make sense if the third weeks sales were dramatically higher in volume than the first two weeks, and the new HD DVD sales spike was much larger than the previous weeks Blu-ray gap?

Or maybe , just guessing here, the YTD or SI stats are not just a cumulation of the weekly stats but include revisions in HD DVD s favor. Maybe a major pro HD DVD retailer was late in reporting weekly stats, but they got included in the SI and YTD stats?


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post #814 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 07:49 AM
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Here is a link to the most recent issue of HomeMediaMagazine, the Jan. 21 data is from page 3:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hmr020407/
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post #815 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:16 AM
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I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:

1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.

2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.

Chris
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post #816 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:21 AM
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1-21-07 chart attached..

b2b
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post #817 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:22 AM
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Well, I've sat back as much as I can, reading this all, but I think it's gotten nowhere as far as finding out what's really going on.

I friend of mine has told me that over the last 2 days, someone from the Bluray side has been sending this data out to LOTS of the main magazines and web sites - with the summary that Bluray has been outselling HD DVD by a 2 to 1 factor, for the week of January 21. He had spoken to a few himself about it.

BUt now, according to all this debate, Bluray DID NOT outsell HD DVD at all in the thrid week of Jan. So where is this 2 to 1 coming from?

What is wrong with the numbers why no one here is able to agree. Aren't sales numbers supposed to be black and white, or are these just useless guides?
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post #818 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Would the numbers make sense if the third weeks sales were dramatically higher in volume than the first two weeks, and the new HD DVD sales spike was much larger than the previous weeks Blu-ray gap?

Nope, they still don't make sense. Believe me, if you've been reading my postsa throughout the thread, then you know when I initially saw these numbers I dismissed the strangeness and assumed exactly that. But upon actually working with them... simply nothing works.

Quote:


Or maybe , just guessing here, the YTD or SI stats are not just a cumulation of the weekly stats but include revisions in HD DVD s favor. Maybe a major pro HD DVD retailer was late in reporting weekly stats, but they got included in the SI and YTD stats?

Maybe. Maybe any number of things though. I think we just need to wait for thr next weeks data to see if the error of this week obviates itself. *Whatever* those numbers end up being, it will lend an insight one way or another.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schlotkins View Post

I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:

1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.

There *is* a way; like you said we have infinite values to choose from. But what I am telling you, is that even with infinite values, there is no solution that matches the stated ratios.

Quote:


2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.

It's not about what seems reasonable and what doesn't though; it's about what is possible according to the rules of mathematics.

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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Well, I've sat back as much as I can, reading this all, but I think it's gotten nowhere as far as finding out what's really going on.

It's gotten somewhere - basically there's an error in the data, so the truth is obscured from us. The error could be in week 1, week 2, week 3... anywhere or everywhere.

Quote:


BUt now, according to all this debate, Bluray DID NOT outsell HD DVD at all in the thrid week of Jan. So where is this 2 to 1 coming from?

The 2-to-1 is a sales ratio for the entirety of 2007. That ratio may or may not be correct at this point, but that's where it comes from.

Quote:


What is wrong with the numbers why no one here is able to agree. Aren't sales numbers supposed to be black and white, or are these just useless guides?

This guide, for the moment, is rendered useless. We need some sort of correction and/or adjustment to be made officially. Hopefully Week 4 will provide that.

************************************************

I truly ask that before anyone else post a "what if..." scenario, they actually try doing the math themselves. Grab some numbers - any numbers - and try it out. You'll see how crazy things start getting real fast.

To discuss these ratios in the context of their possibly being correct is just a little too tedious from here on out; I would find it akin to debating someone with a pro-ID position. The math just doesn't work, and no figures from the world of positive integers would make it work.
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post #819 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schlotkins View Post

I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:

1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.

2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.

Chris

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

Format:
Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week: 61.67% 38.33%
Month: 46.15% 53.85%
Year: 56.31% 43.69%


So, it would indicate a radical swing within a period of 2 weeks. Looks like HD DVD gained back 10% for the month.

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.
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post #820 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:40 AM
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plazman , that is for the month of February.
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post #821 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

Format:
Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week: 61.67% 38.33%
Month: 46.15% 53.85%
Year: 56.31% 43.69%


So, it would indicate a radical swing within a period of 2 weeks. Looks like HD DVD gained back 10% for the month.

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.

I am fairly certain that "month" in these figures at the moment means February.
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post #822 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:47 AM
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If Johnny sold 82% more lemonade over the summer than sally but sally only sold 2 lemonades to begin with...

Did Johnny sell enough lemonade to warrant this ridiculous notion that we're even close to deciding who'll win the format war?
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post #823 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Plaz, this is a link to the expanded DVDEmpire data:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365313005188

As you'll notice, every single week of January favors Blu-ray. I *hope* I don't need to explain to anyone how greater BD sales during every week in the month resulting in a figure of 54:46 for HD DVD in January is another impossibility.

So 'month' means February; either that or it's in its own limbo pseudo-math zone along with Nielsen.

Quote:


Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.

They're hard, but not impossible, and that's the point. I worked this for hours last night, trying to reconcile. I called friends of mine at IBM that also enjoy a good math problem; same result. It doesn't reconcile. Things here are definitely what they seem: whacked out Nielsen numbers.
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post #824 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

I think the most alarming statistic is that everyone seems to shop at DVD Empire when Deep Discount is a couple bucks cheaper per title.
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post #825 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 08:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

Format:
Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week: 61.67% 38.33%
Month: 46.15% 53.85%
Year: 56.31% 43.69%


So, it would indicate a radical swing within a period of 2 weeks. Looks like HD DVD gained back 10% for the month.

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.

Well, as I said before, my math is a little rusty, but my instincts told me something was wrong from the get-go, yesterday morning. And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism. If you have real numbers to prove these figures work to the contrary of so many above, I would be very interested in seeing them.

I was hoping someone with stronger math skills would plug in some numbers and test these percentages and they have.

From my standpoint it was so obvious that something was really weird when...


1/14/07-1/21/07

1. HD DVD makes ONLY a ~ 12 point gain, YTD in one week

while...

2. BD loses 10 points SI in the same week?


All I could figure, without really crunching, is that both formats must have made a MASSIVE leap in sales for January!

But then, as our esteemed colleagues have shown, things get worse when you add in the 3rd week!

I believe, if the percentages are right, you should be able to plug in some given sales figures and produce a working result. Doesn't appear to be happening.

Again, not saying BD is slaughtering HD DVD (anymore .) It's quite possible that when this problem is solved (likely by a discovery that at least one of Videoscan's figures is wrong,) it could prove even worse for my precious Blu-ray.

Bottom line, until someone can show me otherwise, the numbers just don't add up. If you don't believe that, show us some real figures to back your claim. So far, AFAIC, the math is clearly on the, doesn't compute side of things.

But I'm certainly open for some good evidence to the contrary.


EDIT: Me: "And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism."

Not that you would, Plaz. Post was meant to be read in general.
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post #826 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:09 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Plaz, this is a link to the expanded DVDEmpire data:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365313005188

As you'll notice, every single week of January favors Blu-ray. I *hope* I don't need to explain to anyone how greater BD sales during every week in the month resulting in a figure of 54:46 for HD DVD in January is another impossibility.

So 'month' means February; either that or it's in its own limbo pseudo-math zone along with Nielsen.



They're hard, but not impossible, and that's the point. I worked this for hours last night, trying to reconcile. I called friends of mine at IBM that also enjoy a good math problem; same result. It doesn't reconcile. Things here are definitely what they seem: whacked out Nielsen numbers.

So, if every week of Jan was greater for BD and the current week (which is Feb) is greater for BD, how come the month was better for HD DVD? How come the gap closed for the year? Not possible. Either their weekly numbers or off or their MTD and YTD numbers are off....without knowing enough about how they compile their numbers, the only conclusion I can come up with is that their data at present is unreliable. So, whether it looks good for BD or HD DVD, it's not reliable. Period.

The Neilson data makes no sense to me whatsoever! Their Weekly sales and it's impact on SI and YTD are almost impossible to reconcile - at least for me that is.
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post #827 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

I think the most alarming statistic is that everyone seems to shop at DVD Empire when Deep Discount is a couple bucks cheaper per title.

I think people go there to see the sales trend and then buy a disk to support the format of their choice
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post #828 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:17 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Well, as I said before, my math is a little rusty, but my instincts told me something was wrong from the get-go, yesterday morning. And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism. If you have real numbers to prove these figures work to the contrary of so many above, I would be very interested in seeing them.

I was hoping someone with stronger math skills would plug in some numbers and test these percentages and they have.

From my standpoint it was so obvious that something was really weird when...

1/14/07-1/21/07

1. HD DVD makes ONLY a ~ 12 point gain, YTD in one week

while...

2. BD loses 10 points SI

All I could figure, without really crunching, is that both formats must have made a MASSIVE leap in sales for January!

But then, as our esteemed colleagues have shown, things get worse when you add in the 3rd week!

I believe, if the percentages are right, you should be able to plug in some given sales figures and produce a working result. Doesn't appear to be happening.

Again, not saying BD is slaughtering HD DVD (anymore .) It's quite possible that when this problem is solved (likely by a discovery that at least one of Videoscan's figures is wrong,) it could prove even worse for my precious Blu-ray.

Bottom line, until someone can show me otherwise, the numbers just don't add up. If you don't believe that, show us some real figures to back your claim. So far, AFAIC, the math is clearly on the, doesn't compute side of things.

But I'm certainly open for some good evidence to the contrary.


EDIT: Me: "And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism."

Not that you would, Plaz. Post was meant to be read in general.

We are in agreement. The Math doesn't seem to make much sense to me as well.

This must the new math. I'm from the old math education system
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post #829 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

So, if every week of Jan was greater for BD and the current week (which is Feb) is greater for BD, how come the month was better for HD DVD? How come the gap closed for the year? Not possible. Either their weekly numbers or off or their MTD and YTD numbers are off....without knowing enough about how they compile their numbers, the only conclusion I can come up with is that their data at present is unreliable. So, whether it looks good for BD or HD DVD, it's not reliable. Period.

I would be surprised if DVDEmpire messed their numbers up; it should be a simple matter for them to keep it straight. My belief is that 'month' in an absolute fashion includes only sales during said month... so the last two-three days. Whereas the "week" inclusive of a month/split would be seperated out datawise for the purposes of month:month data. Remember, they could give us daily numbers if they wanted, so fine-grain distinctions such as months with overlapping weekly data I think should be easy enough.

DVDEmpire IMO is still sqaured up. And since the data should be for 'week ended,' Jan 30th's highly BD-slanted numbers still allow for the following week (which includes February and the week we're in) to go towards HD DVD without messing anything up.

Remember, the week of 30th data is behind us; the month of Feb data is not included there. Keep straight that the figures are for the weeks ending the stated dates, and I think it will all even out in your analysis of it.

Quote:


The Neilson data makes no sense to me whatsoever! Their Weekly sales and it's impact on SI and YTD are almost impossible to reconcile - at least for me that is.

It's not almost impossible - it *is* impossible.
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post #830 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

We are in agreement. The Math doesn't seem to make much sense to me as well.

This must the new math. I'm from the old math education system



Yeah, I'm waiting for "M" theory to come into this discussion. Something must've slipped from the 11th dimension into one of our own. That would explain it.
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post #831 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:21 AM
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post #832 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:23 AM
 
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So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting
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post #833 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting

Doesn't it work fine if you take (from xbdestroya) that the week ENDS January 30th?
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post #834 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting

Considering this is only the 3rd day of the month and the 6th day of the week ...its highly plausible. They probably had a few HD DVD fans going on a spending spree the last three days. It goes to show that it doesn't take that much to change the data.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #835 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:33 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

I would be surprised if DVDEmpire messed their numbers up; it should be a simple matter for them to keep it straight. My belief is that 'month' in an absolute fashion includes only sales during said month... so the last two-three days. Whereas the "week" inclusive of a month/split would be seperated out datawise for the purposes of month:month data. Remember, they could give us daily numbers if they wanted, so fine-grain distinctions such as months with overlapping weekly data I think should be easy enough.

DVDEmpire IMO is still sqaured up. And since the data should be for 'week ended,' Jan 30th's highly BD-slanted numbers still allow for the following week (which includes February and the week we're in) to go towards HD DVD without messing anything up.

Remember, the week of 30th data is behind us; the month of Feb data is not included there. Keep straight that the figures are for the weeks ending the stated dates, and I think it will all even out in your analysis of it.



It's not almost impossible - it *is* impossible.

Perhaps I wasn't paying attention to dvdempire, but whenever I checked from a link on AVS it showed me a 25-30 point spread between BD and HD DVD for every week of Jan. Then I see that at the end of the month it was actually a 13 point difference. Much smaller than I was used to seeing there...

Also, if HD DVD is ahead for the 3 days of Feb by 10 points or so and for the entire week they are behind by 25 points, then for the last few days in Jan, BD must have out sold by what a 10:1 ratio?? But if that were the case, then the monthly sales ratio should have have narrowed (as they appear to have). oops. I am confusing myself again

Gotta pick up the wife from the spa
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post #836 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:37 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Doesn't it work fine if you take (from xbdestroya) that the week ENDS January 30th?

I heard they are substituting the Bud Bowl commerical during the super bowl halftime show with a HD Format Bowl - sponsored by Amazon, dvdempire and Videoscan


That will give us the real score....
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post #837 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

I heard they are substituting the Bud Bowl commerical during the super bowl halftime show with a HD Format Bowl - sponsored by Amazon, dvdempire and Videoscan


That will give us the real score....



Will it still be hosted by Dan BEERdorf?
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post #838 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 09:44 AM
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plazman - the difference may be explained if the number of units sold is small. Then just a few sold for a given formant could swing the percentages.
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post #839 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 10:09 AM
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If I assume SI ratio of 100:91 (instead of reported 100:82.3) this is what I get:

I think the possibilities are :

1. Nielsen is using some weird extrapolation techniques used in DVD that don't hold good for HiDef DVD i.e. their numbers are not trustworthy.

2. They got some extra data which was of a year to date nature that was not reflected in their earlier week's data i.e. the current data invalidates their earlier week's data.

3. They are using inaccurate slide rulers to calculate the ratios ...

I'm going to take all these numbers with a bag of salt until we get atleast internally consistent numbers.
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post #840 of 9375 Old 02-03-2007, 10:09 AM
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...for my precious Blu-ray.

...channeling Gollum now?

Let's not take this stuff that seriously! Your not scaling Mt Doom with Frodo.

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