Originally Posted by Kosty
Would the numbers make sense if the third weeks sales were dramatically higher in volume than the first two weeks, and the new HD DVD sales spike was much larger than the previous weeks Blu-ray gap?
Nope, they still don't make sense. Believe me, if you've been reading my postsa throughout the thread, then you know when I initially saw these numbers I dismissed the strangeness and assumed exactly that. But upon actually working with them... simply nothing works.
Or maybe , just guessing here, the YTD or SI stats are not just a cumulation of the weekly stats but include revisions in HD DVD s favor. Maybe a major pro HD DVD retailer was late in reporting weekly stats, but they got included in the SI and YTD stats?
Maybe. Maybe any number of things though. I think we just need to wait for thr next weeks data to see if the error of this week obviates itself. *Whatever* those numbers end up being, it will lend an insight one way or another.
Originally Posted by Schlotkins
I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:
1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.
There *is* a way; like you said we have infinite values to choose from. But what I am telling you, is that even with infinite values, there is no solution that matches the stated ratios.
2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.
It's not about what seems reasonable and what doesn't though; it's about what is possible according to the rules of mathematics.
Originally Posted by rdjam
Well, I've sat back as much as I can, reading this all, but I think it's gotten nowhere as far as finding out what's really going on.
It's gotten somewhere - basically there's an error in the data, so the truth is obscured from us. The error could be in week 1, week 2, week 3... anywhere or everywhere.
BUt now, according to all this debate, Bluray DID NOT outsell HD DVD at all in the thrid week of Jan. So where is this 2 to 1 coming from?
The 2-to-1 is a sales ratio for the entirety of 2007. That ratio may or may not be correct at this point, but that's where it comes from.
What is wrong with the numbers why no one here is able to agree. Aren't sales numbers supposed to be black and white, or are these just useless guides?
This guide, for the moment, is rendered useless. We need some sort of correction and/or adjustment to be made officially. Hopefully Week 4 will provide that.
I truly ask that before anyone else post a "what if..." scenario, they actually try doing the math themselves. Grab some numbers - any numbers - and try it out. You'll see how crazy things start getting real
To discuss these ratios in the context of their possibly being correct is just a little too tedious from here on out; I would find it akin to debating someone with a pro-ID position. The math just doesn't work, and no figures from the world of positive integers would
make it work.