Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 31 - AVS Forum
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post #901 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 10:15 AM
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I see the numbers as reliable. Moreover, it is the best we'll ever get to the truth as they are from an unbiased, third party (no fanboys). These conspiracy theories and fuzzy logic as to why they aren't favoring what the majority of AVS members favor (HD DVD) are mind boggling.......but pure entertinment to read.

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period.

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post #902 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 10:38 AM
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I think I got the answer!!

In their latest data entry, next to "HD DVD" there is an asterisk, which refers to a note saying: "Includes HD DVD Combo". The sales info for weeks ending Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include it.

Hence, it might be construed that the first two data points published did not consider combos as HD DVDs, which made HD DVD look worse than it should. Probably some industry agent contacted Nielsen to correct their data.

More circumstantial evidence is comparing the chart of best-selling titles on HMM and davisdvd (thanks to darin for pointing this out). Superman Returns appears on davisdvd's list but not on HMM.


Short story: the first two weeks are useless.

Interesting idea, but somehow it does not sound right.

the SI changed way too much and the YTD did not. If the data was not right and there was a correction, I would guess there would have been something simillar for the YTD.

The issue is that it is obvious that Dec was when the surge happened (maybe late Nov).

Back in Aug/Sep HD DVD was outselling BD 3:1 (roughly).
From the HD DVDprg we get 175k+ sold, other indications show that around 100k HD DVD add-ons sold last year as well and then we have the 2G that only showed up in Dec (or was it late Nov).

Let's call p the amount of time it took to sell 10 BDs in Aug 2006
10 BDs then
3:1 -> 30 HD DVDs then
4:1 (a guess based on number of players then compared to Jan) -> 120HD DVDs now
2:1 (sales for BD vs HD DVD)-> 240 BDs now

so we get 360:40 or 9:1


I am guessing 9:1 is also extremely conservative (i.e. most likely bigger).

I can't see how it could influence SI so much and not YTD
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post #903 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by thebland View Post

I see the numbers as reliable.

Which numbers? Week 1 and 2, or week three? Because to the extent they are inconsistent, they aren't reliable. I mean, when you saw the week 1 and 2 numbers, didn't you assume that combo disc were included?

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Originally Posted by thebland View Post


The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period

Blu-ray has Jumped ahead, no doubt. But for it to be a trend we need a few more weeks of data. BD's lead could be narrowing, growing, or staying the same. We don't know yet, so the trend is very much deniable, regardless of what one views the trend to be. If they have counted combo's every week, then HD DVD had the lead last week. IF they didn't, we don't know who led last week because we have no baseline to judge against.
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post #904 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Blu-ray has Jumped ahead, no doubt. But for it to be a trend we need a few more weeks of data.

Probably a lot more ... how do we know this is not a repeat of UMD (PSP) story ?

Even 1 BD movie buy each by PS3 owners can seem like a jump ahead ... if they are not repeat buyers it will slowly cool down - what with slowed down PS3 sales ....
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post #905 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Probably a lot more ... how do we know this is not a repeat of UMD (PSP) story ?

Even 1 BD movie buy each by PS3 owners can seem like a jump ahead ... if they are not repeat buyers it will slowly cool down - what with slowed down PS3 sales ....

Because UMD was a poor product and generally a bad idea, Blu-ray is neither of these.
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post #906 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by thebland View Post


The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period.


What is amazing is that over 30 pages of discussion has been generated over three data points. One can not have a "trend" with only three data points. There just isn't enough data yet to draw a conclusion for one format or the other.

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post #907 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by sknight1 View Post

What is amazing is that over 30 pages of discussion has been generated over three data points. One can not have a "trend" with only three data points. There just isn't enough data yet to draw a conclusion for one format or the other.

Trust the Amazon rankings? Look back before the PS/3 came out.
Trust the DVD Empire percentages? Look back at those stats.

Are we now saying that Videoscan is the sole authoritative data points?

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post #908 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by sknight1 View Post

What is amazing is that over 30 pages of discussion has been generated over three data points. One can not have a "trend" with only three data points. There just isn't enough data yet to draw a conclusion for one format or the other.


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post #909 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by thebland View Post

I see the numbers as reliable. Moreover, it is the best we'll ever get to the truth as they are from an unbiased, third party (no fanboys). These conspiracy theories and fuzzy logic as to why they aren't favoring what the majority of AVS members favor (HD DVD) are mind boggling.......but pure entertinment to read.

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period.

Of course if they show a BD lead they are reliable, right ? On the other hand, if they don't then they must be wrong somehow...

So let me ask you this : if Nielsen didn't include combos during the first 2 weeks of January, then it doesn't matter ? It's quite amusing you're accusing HD-DVD people of spinning the numbers when all things considered if the numbers didn't include combos during the 1st 2 weeks it's nothing more than a fluke that you're more than happy to use to declare the war is won...

Declaring a winner after 2 weeks in the year with wrong numbers is what I call "mind boggling". But hey, why not, after all, you wouldn't have it any other way, would you ?

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post #910 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Trust the Amazon rankings? Look back before the PS/3 came out.
Trust the DVD Empire percentages? Look back at those stats.

Are we now saying that Videoscan is the sole authoritative data points?

Gary

Personally, I don't trust anybody's numbers. Point is there are just too many balls up in the air for anyone to reach a decision on the format war. In short:
  • Universal Studios - Combo format strategy.
  • Warner - TotalHD Strategy.
  • PS3 Juggernaught -- Just released (not even in Europe yet).
  • Chinese - When and how cheap.
  • Adult Movies - HD only or not, big factor or not.
  • Universal Players - More manufacturers and when.
  • Diodes - Manufacturing problems or not - when will they be corrected.

Until all of the above plays out then its anybody's guess -- and I do mean guess!

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post #911 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:20 PM
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add to above the mass production of HD A2 and Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons

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post #912 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by sknight1 View Post

Personally, I don't trust anybody's numbers. Point is there are just too many balls up in the air for anyone to reach a decision on the format war. In short:
  • Universal Studios - Combo format strategy.
  • Warner - TotalHD Strategy.
  • PS3 Juggernaught -- Just released (not even in Europe yet).
  • Chinese - When and how cheap.
  • Adult Movies - HD only or not, big factor or not.
  • Universal Players - More manufacturers and when.
  • Diodes - Manufacturing problems or not - when will they be corrected.

Until all of the above plays out then its anybody's guess -- and I do mean guess!

I agree completely, the only logical conclusion for now is that's it's too early to tell.

BTW, how many times does a war need to be won for it to be really over ?

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post #913 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by eurotrance View Post

I agree completely, the only logical conclusion for now is that's it's too early to tell.

BTW, how many times does a war need to be won for it to be really over ?


Judging by this thread it must be at least 7 or 8!

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post #914 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

I also agree that the data for three weeks doesn't match.

Looking at other parameters (that is, HD-DVD should have had a good week), I think, it is the SI that is wrong. Anything smaller than 90.5 gives ridiculous numbers.

If I assume SI ratio of 100:91 (instead of reported 100:82.3) this is what I get:
Code:
WW      HD %    BD Weekly       HD Weekly       BD YTD          HD YTD: HYT
WW1     47.14   126,445.08      59,606.21       126,445.08       59,606.21
WW2     38.36   161,679.71      50,918.46       288,124.80      110,524.67
WW3     50.51     1,992.16      36,013.40       290,116.96      146,538.08

Go lower, and the BD weekly sales towards -ve (as nataraj's calc). (third column).

With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable!
Actually, we see a nice jump in HD-DVD number as expected:
Code:
WW      HD %    BD Weekly       HD Weekly       BD YTD          HD YTD: HYT
WW1     47.14   126,445.08      59,606.21       126,445.08       59,606.21
WW2     38.36   161,679.71      50,918.46       288,124.80      110,524.67
WW3     50.51    57,515.00      64,057.99       345,639.80      174,582.66

Bottom line is that the reported numbers don't match up.

PS: I used same assumption as others: 1.5M HD-DVD, 1.2M BD.

Another thing to consider, if you think there was an error in the data, is that the YTD total was reported incorrectly. If you assume that the YTD was actually closer for HD-DVD, then you get data where the number of BD sales remain close to the week 1 and week 2 numbers, but you get a really big jump (2-3X) for HD-DVD.

So is it likely that BD numbers dropped drastically, even though there were several new releases? Or is it more likely that HD-DVD sales increased drastically, because of several popular new releases?
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post #915 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

I think I got the answer!!

In their latest data entry, next to "HD DVD" there is an asterisk, which refers to a note saying: "Includes HD DVD Combo". The sales info for weeks ending Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include it.

Hence, it might be construed that the first two data points published did not consider combos as HD DVDs, which made HD DVD look worse than it should. Probably some industry agent contacted Nielsen to correct their data.

More circumstantial evidence is comparing the chart of best-selling titles on HMM and davisdvd (thanks to darin for pointing this out). Superman Returns appears on davisdvd's list but not on HMM.


Short story: the first two weeks are useless.

Ah... Now that could be very possible. Combo's were being counted as regular DVD. And since there are several popular combos, this would have a big impact on HD-DVD.
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post #916 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

If they didn't show us possible numbers which will give you weekly sales. Start with any number you want for 2006 sales.

Could you clarify your statement?
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post #917 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eternal_Sunshine View Post

So basically there's good and bad news for everyone: HD-DVDs numbers for 2007 are not quite so bad anymore (only outsold by 2:1), on the other hand there was no sudden spike in HD-DVD sales in week three.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that. If Videoscan has been omitting combo discs, then the SI and YTD numbers are probably both wrong. It would mean combos were being omitted since the inception of HD-DVD. It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured. If they tried, it would also mean correcting the DVD numbers as well (you can't count the disc twice).

It would also mean any 2:1 ratio would be totally invalid, as only a portion of HD-DVD discs were counted. It would ensure that the ratio is actually less than 2:1 (and could even be in HD-DVD's favor).
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post #918 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 01:08 PM
 
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I wouldn't go as far as to say that. If Videoscan has been omitting combo discs, then the SI and YTD numbers are probably both wrong. It would mean combos were being omitted since the inception of HD-DVD. It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured. If they tried, it would also mean correcting the DVD numbers as well (you can't count the f disc twice).

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.
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post #919 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured.


Actually, I bet it wouldn't be that hard at all. Just move the sku's of a few movies from one column to another and rerun the tally. I mean, it's not like they were tabulating these things by hand on a napkin. I would guess they could manipulate which SKU's to include in the count fairly easily.
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post #920 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

Procedurally, it was probably no more difficult to go back and refigure the stats to include combo's in the YTD than it was for the SI. I don't know why they would do it on one and not the other.
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post #921 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 01:29 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

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post #922 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 02:04 PM
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It will be really amusing when some blu statisticians only count their side of the Warner THDs.
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post #923 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 02:31 PM
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All this shows that the hi-def disc sales are still quite small.
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post #924 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

Actually, it doesn't prove that any correction to 2006 was performed. I'm sure you would like to think it did, but there is ZERO proof just from looking at week 3 numbers. To make the numbers align mathematically, you must depend on YTD numbers as well. A realignment of YTD, SI, or both would result in it being impossible to align the numbers.

There is ZERO proof for that matter that they weren't counting combos (surely they weren't stupid enough to overlook them). For all we know, the mag (or Nielson) got several questions about whether their numbers included combos. So they added the asterick so people would know.

Unless they issue a release saying they omitted the combo numbers, it is only a guess that they did.
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post #925 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 04:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

You know this for fact, or are you just guessing?

The SI records should also include 2006. So did they fix 2006 so that the Jan 1 numbers are right?
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post #926 of 9375 Old 02-04-2007, 10:13 PM
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I see nothing wrong with suggesting that Videoscan post actual numbers sold for each title on each format. I would like to see exactly how they arrive at their conclusions, and it would also paint a more realistic picture of demand across both platforms.

If a movie is available cross-platform, I want to see the sales numbers for each version. What I am not interested in at this time are the less insightful cumulative figures which include sales of movies that are not even available on one platform or another.

HD DVD gets a big exclusive release or two and that will skew the numbers in favor of HD DVD sales. Blu Ray gets a big exclusive release or two and it skews the numbers in favor of Blu Ray sales.

It does not answer the question of which side is truly buying more software with all things being equal if you can not see the individual sales totals for titles available on both HD DVD and Blu Ray.

This is what I hope to see uncovered in the near future.
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post #927 of 9375 Old 02-05-2007, 12:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I'm quoting the article from the magazine.

Where does the article say that it was 20 for Blu-ray vs 11 for HD DVD? If it was referring to the time that the data up until the 14th was relevant to then I would say it was wrong. If it was referring to January, then of course it would be incorrect for you to use that ratio as a basis for the ratio of titles for a different period (like up until the 14th).

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post #928 of 9375 Old 02-05-2007, 01:50 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

You know this for fact, or are you just guessing?

Occam's razor: when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, we should select the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest hypothetical entities.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #929 of 9375 Old 02-05-2007, 03:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Occam's razor: when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, we should select the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest hypothetical entities.

I'm with Grubert on this one.

At the moment that seems to be the most likely scenario.

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post #930 of 9375 Old 02-05-2007, 04:48 AM - Thread Starter
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I've sent an email to HMM asking for clarification and corrected figures if appropriate. I'll keep you posted.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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