Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 313 - AVS Forum
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post #9361 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Assayer View Post

I have a pet theory formulating. Feel free to critique and throw darts as you see fit. My theory is that the movie 'Transformers' is uniquely targeted towards the PS3 demographic, has instant name recognition, and is basically the eye candy movie of the year - well suited to HD. It is also widely expected to be a neutral release. If any movie will show us how many PS3 owners are interested in buying HD optical media, it is this one. Per a thread over in the BD software forum, it is expected to be released in on or around December 4th.

I think you're right, and I think 300 is going to also appeal to a lot of PS3 owners. I am hesitant to make predictions, but I think 2:1 Blu-ray is a pretty safe bet for sales. The waters are muddied a bit because HD DVD supporters will have to pay the combo tax, but in this case they may want to because of the IME. Only a few weeks until we know for sure
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post #9362 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Assayer View Post

It looks like we were pondering this at the same time. My take is that they are fence-sitting while they wait for resolution of the war. They were willing to commit to hardware because they wanted to own the next great thing, but when it comes down to spending $20+ for a catalog release, or $25+ for a new release with the cloud still hanging overhead, they turn into spend-thrifts. We see some impulse buying from them when Fry's runs a deep sale, but most of the time they are still waiting in a holding pattern. In part for this reason, I anticipate media sales will grow faster than player sales when the cloud lifts.

We can also see from the Amazon sales that a lot of PS3 buyers are willing to jump off the fence when the price is right.
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post #9363 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 07:34 PM
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If you look at long term sales ranking, BD is much more stable & consistent regarding buying of movies. To me, this kinda indicates that a lot of BD supporters are more casual buyers. On the hd dvd side, you have huge peaks & dropoffs. When HD gets new releases or buy days, everyone piles in, and can momentarily overtake BD's rankings, but then the #s quickly drops off. IMO Transformers should follow this pattern.

I think hd can pull ahead with the pre-orders, but BD eventually catches up & overtakes as more of the "casual enthusist" that represents ps3 owners jump in. Bd has a lower overall attach rate, but the upside of that is that they have more "untapped potential". As the poster above me mentioned, once you have a sale or hit movie released, BD comes back swinging.

Sony pay me 10 beeeelion dollars to plant blu-ray seeeeds.
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post #9364 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by joe_six_pack View Post

I think hd can pull ahead with the pre-orders, but BD eventually catches up & overtakes as more of the "casual enthusist" that represents ps3 owners jump in. Bd has a lower overall attach rate, but the upside of that is that they have more "untapped potential".

Exactly. In order for HD DVD to have a title sell 100,000 copies, 33% of all owners (150,000 dedicated, 150,000 add-on as per official Toshiba and Microsoft figures) must be interested in the title and buy it. For Blu-ray to sell 100,000 copies a paltry
~6.5% (1.5 million PS3s and 100,000 dedicated players) must be interested enough to buy.

Is it any surprise Casino Royale will probably be the first title to sell 100,000 on a single HD format? (I realize The Departed is higher when both format's sales are combined.)
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post #9365 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by theflux View Post

Exactly. In order for HD DVD to have a title sell 100,000 copies, 33% of all owners (150,000 dedicated, 150,000 add-on as per official Toshiba and Microsoft figures) must be interested in the title and buy it. For Blu-ray to sell 100,000 copies a paltry
~6.5% (1.5 million PS3s and 100,000 dedicated players) must be interested enough to buy.

Is it any surprise Casino Royale will probably be the first title to sell 100,000 on a single HD format? (I realize The Departed is higher when both format's sales are combined.)

Under even the most conservative estimates, CR must have crossed 100K just by taking the May 29th numbers and considering the placement of CR in the weekly top 10 lists after that.
---
What is the significance of the Rentrak deal?
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=10899

Do Blockbusters get their disks through Rentrak?
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post #9366 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

Under even the most conservative estimates, CR must have crossed 100K just by taking the May 29th numbers and considering the placement of CR in the weekly top 10 lists after that.
---
What is the significance of the Rentrak deal?
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=10899

Do Blockbusters get their disks through Rentrak?


Quote:


Rentrak Corporation offers home entertainment content products in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Pay-Per-Transaction (PPT), and Advanced Media and Information (AMI). The PPT segment delivers home entertainment content products, as well as provides related rental and sales information for that content to home video specialty stores and other retailers, including grocery stores and convenience stores. This division also operates a Web site, Formovies.com, to assist consumers in finding a local video store where they can rent and/or purchase video products. The AMI Division offers Essentials Suite of software and services comprising Box Office Essentials for reporting domestic and international gross receipt theatrical ticket sales to motion picture studios and movie theater owners; Home Video Essentials that measures DVD, VHS, and video game rentals from both brick-and-mortar and online channels; Supply Chain Essentials, a supply chain management software, that enables clients to manage the flow of products and funds at various point in the supply chain until the product reaches the consumer; OnDemand Essentials to measure and report anonymous video on demand usage data; and Retail Essentials that primarily reports North American national consumer sales estimations of DVDs, VHS tapes, HD DVDs, Blu-ray Discs and universal media disks to motion picture studios and retailers. This segment's direct revenue sharing services collect, track, audit, and report the results of certain retailers' direct revenue sharing activity to its suppliers consisting of studios and independent program suppliers. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

You can use the store locator on their website to find the type of stores they rent movies in. For the most part, it seems to be smaller local video rental stores & grocery stores.

Sony pay me 10 beeeelion dollars to plant blu-ray seeeeds.
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post #9367 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by LynxFX View Post

No, that would be 'people should instead buy BD, which can view 90% of the available movies.'

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.
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post #9368 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 09:03 PM
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Originally Posted by porsche1207 View Post

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.

If you don't know which format gets the most sales you can just look at the first post in this thread.

Only one studio seems to be passing up those sales at the moment.
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post #9369 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by porsche1207 View Post

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.

And who has the most sales? That's right, people should buy BD where studio support will soon be 100%.
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post #9370 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by theflux View Post

I think you're right, and I think 300 is going to also appeal to a lot of PS3 owners. I am hesitant to make predictions, but I think 2:1 Blu-ray is a pretty safe bet for sales. The waters are muddied a bit because HD DVD supporters will have to pay the combo tax, but in this case they may want to because of the IME. Only a few weeks until we know for sure

Whether or not combos are a good idea is disputed. The studios contend they have data that shows that people like them for new releases.
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post #9371 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Jiffylush View Post

If you don't know which format gets the most sales you can just look at the first post in this thread.

Only one studio seems to be passing up those sales at the moment.

First post doesn't mention SD DVD
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post #9372 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

First post doesn't mention SD DVD

Is it me or is this a recent trend? Everytime someone mentions how badly HDDVD is getting their teeth kicked in, HDDVD supporters fall back to DVD. It's quite hilarious actually because they can't argue the fact that their format is losing and losing badly. Their new mantra seems to be, "We're not getting our asses kicked that bad". I can't wait for Friday's Nielson numbers to come out, something tells me HDDVD supporters won't be posting on this thread for a few days.
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post #9373 of 9375 Old 07-16-2007, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by MichaelHDDVD View Post

First post doesn't mention SD DVD

Thats because we are in the HD forums. Stay on topic.
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post #9374 of 9375 Old 07-17-2007, 01:54 AM
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Originally Posted by TwinTurboZX View Post

Is it me or is this a recent trend? Everytime someone mentions how badly HDDVD is getting their teeth kicked in, HDDVD supporters fall back to DVD. It's quite hilarious actually because they can't argue the fact that their format is losing and losing badly. Their new mantra seems to be, "We're not getting our asses kicked that bad". I can't wait for Friday's Nielson numbers to come out, something tells me HDDVD supporters won't be posting on this thread for a few days.

It's the latest HD DVD talking point. I guess we aren't on their e-mail distribution list.
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post #9375 of 9375 Old 07-17-2007, 02:41 AM
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Nielsen VideoScan sales ratios & top sellers part 2

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