Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 34 - AVS Forum
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post #991 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

What did anyone expect him to say? He's on the losing side of this. Of course he is going to discount this as much as possible (which is why it took him so long to come back with an answer).

The question was answered less than an hour after it was asked, hardly a long time.
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post #992 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

What did anyone expect him to say? He's on the losing side of this. Of course he is going to discount this as much as possible (which is why it took him so long to come back with an answer).

Maybe we should wait until we get at least two valid data points? Even then it'll take a while to establish a trend. Hopefully there are no more surprises with their "data gathering" techniques.
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post #993 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:13 PM
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Here is more comments on the numbers that are being released for HD DVD and Blu-Ray. I can see why people are confused after reading reports on HD sales.


http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20...test-idea-who/

For those of you who don't want to go to the site here is the article.



HD DVD v Blu-ray someone is winning. Nobody has the faintest idea who
Posted on February 6th, 2007 by Gareth Powell
Not for me to start a row with Google. They are bigger than me and have more money. But the heading Hardware Blu-ray Sales Surpass HD DVD Nearly Threefold is, to say the least, somewhat misleading. Or, if you prefer, a load of bollocks.



Luckily, the computer Google swears there is no human intervention but it may be telling little porkies later changed it to Fight for DVD Supremacy Heats Up which is much more accurate.


Again, strangely the computer made me do it officer, honest most of the sources listed internationally were Australian and, no, I am not in Australia nor using the Australian news site.

So Google News needs to lift its game.

What we have are figures released by Nielsen VideoScan to Home Media Magazine that Blu-ray movies are quickly gaining ground on HD DVD.

Let us stop there and consider the sentence. If they are quickly gaining ground then they are behind. Then comes the next sentence: the sales numbers show that Blu-ray Discs have been outselling HD DVDs by a strong margin thus far in 2007.

Which is followed by marketing analysis gobbledy-gook. Try following the logic, please.

During the first week of 2007, sales of Blu-ray more than doubled that of HD DVDs, with the latter making up only 46.14 percent of sales compared to the former.

Hold hard, my good fellow, simple maths tells us if you sell 46.24 percent and Blu-Ray doubled it then Blu-Ray sold 92.58 percent which means that altogether the sales were about 150 percent which is not totally logical. In fact, quite daft.

So let us look at some possible reasons. Obviously, the launch of the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray Disc drive would have pushed sales. Because separate HD DVD players sold a lot less than the PlayStation 3. Say 175,000 HD DVD players.

But the PlayStation is for playing games. Of course, there are bugger-all games available as yet, so you need something to stick in this expensive machine and a movie will do.

Mark you, HD DVD has very little unless you could accept Batman Begins top selling title with a picture used to illustrate this article as intelligent viewing which I am not willing so to do.

The report allows HD DVD still holds the majority of total HD movies sold with Blu-ray is galloping up on the inside but still has not quite made it. Which makes a total nonsense of the original headline. It is pure iambic nonsense.

A saner moment, away from figures which make no sense at all, comes from the Global Optical Storage Industry Report, published December 2006. It says that HD DVD will still be the mainstream in the market during 2007 to 2009. After that it gives the edge to Blu-ray.

The problem is there is very little dependable Blu-Ray manufacturing and testing equipment around. Think of HD DVD as being a logical extension of what had gone before. Blu-Ray as a leap into technological advancement. Is it the bridge too far? I dunno. But some of the daft reports based on very iffy sales figures do not help to come up with an informed view. Google News should be ashamed of itself. The computer than runs it should be made to stand in corner until lunch break.

What you see is what you get. HD DVD is spectacular, early adopters will freak out, every Tuesday will feel like Xmas. The best film-based audio and video I've yet experienced in my home theater.
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post #994 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by grant7311 View Post

Here is more comments on the numbers that are being released for HD DVD and Blu-Ray. I can see why people are confused after reading reports on HD sales.


http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20...test-idea-who/

That guy has no idea what he's talking about, and based on his calculations, he failed reading comprehension and basic algebra.

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post #995 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

That guy has no idea what he's talking about, and based on his calculations, he failed reading comprehension and basic algebra.

Yeah. I hope he isn't getting paid for that.
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post #996 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

Do not get offended Nataraj, but I feel a little awkward hearing this very suggestion from a person whose company has a vested interest in one of the formats.

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?

Quote:


I don't doubt your personal integrity ....

Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.
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post #997 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?



Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.

I never realized how much flak one gets simply for being an employee of Microsoft. I bet even the janitors there get it from other janitors in their union. They probably are watched extra closely and aren't allowed to chair any of the janitor's union activities. People accusing them of working an angle. Suspicion swirls around anything MS related.

But at least you're not an attorney
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post #998 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I never realized how much flak one gets simply for being an employee of Microsoft. I bet even the janitors there get it from other janitors in their union. They probably are watched extra closely and aren't allowed to chair any of the janitor's union activities. People accusing them of working an angle. Suspicion swirls around anything MS related.

Yep. Except ofcourse in Seattle - most of the people I meet are jealous rather than accusatory.

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But at least you're not an attorney

Wonder what happens to MS attorneys !!
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post #999 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 05:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

That guy has no idea what he's talking about, and based on his calculations, he failed reading comprehension and basic algebra.

I know I'm stating the obvious for you, but just wanted to point out an example for people who haven't looked there:
Quote:


"During the first week of 2007, sales of Blu-ray more than doubled that of HD DVDs, with the latter making up only 46.14 percent of sales compared to the former."

Hold hard, my good fellow, simple maths tells us if you sell 46.24 percent and Blu-Ray doubled it then Blu-Ray sold 92.58 percent which means that altogether the sales were about 150 percent which is not totally logical. In fact, quite daft.

That is the problem when somebody does "simple math" and can't figure out what "compared to the former" means.

--Darin

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post #1000 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

That is the problem when somebody does "simple math" and can't figure out what "compared to the former" means.

--Darin

Seriously.
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post #1001 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 06:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I know I'm stating the obvious for you, but just wanted to point out an example for people who haven't looked there:
That is the problem when somebody does "simple math" and can't figure out what "compared to the former" means.

--Darin

Hard to believe someone can get paid doing such a lousy job!

[PS: Probably, I should take it back. It's a blog site, so apparently, they are not paid! ]

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post #1002 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Yep. Except ofcourse in Seattle - most of the people I meet are jealous rather than accusatory.



Wonder what happens to MS attorneys !!

They get to spend a lot of time in Iowa in the dead of winter defending against another class-action anti-trust suit...

http://iowaconsumercase.org/index.html

b2b


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post #1003 of 9375 Old 02-06-2007, 10:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grant7311 View Post

[b]...But the heading Hardware Blu-ray Sales Surpass HD DVD Nearly Threefold is, to say the least, somewhat misleading. Or, if you prefer, a load of bollocks.

Luckily, the computer Google swears there is no human intervention but it may be telling little porkies later changed it to Fight for DVD Supremacy Heats Up which is much more accurate.

Why does he quote a heading stating Blu-ray HARDWARE sales surpass HD DVD 8:1 (must be including PS3 sales) to start off his rant and then immediately switch to discussing SOFTWARE sales? You'd think a tech writer would know the difference.


Excerpt from TECH.BLORGE.com:

Gareth Powell has been a publisher and a journalist all of his life. In computers he has been the computer editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and the Hong Kong Standard. He has published several magazines on computers and was the first publisher of a magazine in Australia dedicated to the Apple II. He now writes five blogs on China, is working on a television series, writes and pubishes books and lives in England, Asia and Australia. He has no educational background worth writing about and comes from a long line of Welsh miners.

Emphasis added by me (maybe he's the typical HD DVD owner).
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post #1004 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 12:13 AM - Thread Starter
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In the meantime, here are the top sellers for the week ending January 28, 2007, courtesy of davisdvd and provided by Rentrak's Home Video Essentials.

Blu-ray
1 (-) Saw III
2 (-) The Guardian
3 (-) Saw II
4 (2) Crank
5 (-) Alien vs. Predator
6 (3) Employee of the Month
7 (1) Gridiron Gang
8 (4) Underworld: Evolution
9 (9) The Fifth Element
10 (5) Resident Evil Apocalypse

HD DVD
1 (1) Clerks II
2 (5) Batman Begins
3 (3) Lucky Number Slevin
4 (10) V For Vendetta
5 (4) Casino
6 (6) Superman Returns
7 (2) The Mummy Returns
8 (9) The Last Samurai
9 (7) Poseidon
10 (-) Miami Vice

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post #1005 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 04:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

The question was answered less than an hour after it was asked, hardly a long time.

The question was continually asked about the Neilsen data, and this news bit from Sony was based on that data. He chose to ignore the Neilsen data until Sony took a stance, at which point, he continued to ignore the data. Why wouldn't he have given the same answer when it was brought up initially? Probably because he knew that by responding to it, he was accepting it, and didn't want to do so until someone else did.
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post #1006 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 06:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?

My real name is Giuseppe Salza, I live in France, and I work for a small company. Although we do some work in the entertainment area, we don't have any financial connection with any film/video company, nor with hardware manufacturers.

Everything I ever posted here is my personal opinion only. I paid my PS3 with my money, and I pay the BD I buy like everyone else.

I should probably add that I use Macs, although in the past I have owned some 10 PCs with almost every flavor of Windows from 3.11 to XP SP2. You shouldn't label me as a MS-hater -- although I certainly complain that Microsoft Money and the Windows Media DRMs haven't been ported to Apple yet.

Azumi is the name of my cat.

Satisfied?

Quote:


Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.

I never said that you or your math are biased. I merely pointed out that the stance of your employer puts you in a awkward position. That said, after reading your reply, I can understand that you reacted on your honor. So I have no problems in believing your words.
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post #1007 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

So I have no problems in believing your words.

Thanks.
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post #1008 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:04 AM
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Some additional numbers (SCEA = Sony Computer Entertainment America):

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales, according to research firm NPD Group... SCEA recently said that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD titles close to three-to-one during the second week of January.

According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

Full article at next-gen.biz (the system won't let me post the actual url, due to me being a new user).
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post #1009 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:14 AM - Thread Starter
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Welcome jipedk, and thanks!

The article is this: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #1010 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jipedk View Post

SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units

Is it clear that these are all movies and not games on BD for the PS3?

Edit, I see that they updated the news release:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2
Quote:


SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US,

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post #1011 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:26 AM
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Do these figures pertain to standalone players -- minus the PS3 and the 360's HD DVD add-on?

Sorry if it's a silly question. I just wanted to make sure that we're indeed talking about players and not discs.
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post #1012 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:31 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

Do these figures pertain to standalone players -- minus the PS3 and the 360's HD DVD add-on?

Sorry if it's a silly question. I just wanted to make sure that we're indeed talking about players and not discs.

Not silly at all - with all the commotion of this past week, there is no such thing as stating the obvious.

But yes the article says "Blu-ray disc sales lead HD-DVD sales by only 1,000 units"

BTW, for those that don't frequent the HD DVD Software forum, there's a thread there trying to cast doubt on the Videoscan figures and also on the motives of Home Media Magazine, VideoScan, thedigitalbits and yours truly.

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post #1013 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyC View Post

Excerpt from TECH.BLORGE.com:

Gareth Powell has been a publisher and a journalist all of his life. In computers he has been the computer editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and the Hong Kong Standard. He has published several magazines on computers and was the first publisher of a magazine in Australia dedicated to the Apple II. He now writes five blogs on China, is working on a television series, writes and pubishes books and lives in England, Asia and Australia. He has no educational background worth writing about and comes from a long line of Welsh miners.

Emphasis added by me (maybe he's the typical HD DVD owner).

The problem with the rapid explosion of so called "news blogs" is that they aren't held accountable to any standards of being fair in their reporting or even close to accurate. They put up some inflammatory story and let it run for a week while it gets dugg all over the internet to other blogs and forums till eventually a decently respectable news source will pick it up and run it. The only problem is that most of the time the information is grossely inaccurate or it's a simplified version of the problem that get's recycled in a 30 sec news blurb. In the end, when they are wrong, they offer up the classic "Well, that was just my opinion. This is just a news blog and I report what I feel".

To sum it up, the reason he probably doesn't work at a magazine anymore is because they may have wanted him to actually research stories and write on facts instead of just printing random brain farts.
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post #1014 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:39 AM
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Math test

What 40% of total Blue Ray player market is sequal to the Sony PS3 and the Sony BDP-S1? What universe is that that the PS3 is only 40% of and the BDP-S1 is included?

With 2 millions PS3 Shipped

Xbox 360 HD DVD add on 92,000 units by end of December (NPD numbers).

Quote:


SCEA recently said that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD titles close to three-to-one during the second week of January.

Notice they only gave mention to sales surpassing in the esecond week, which would imply HD DVD held steady in the first week.

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post #1015 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:44 AM
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Quote:


BTW, for those that don't frequent the HD DVD Software forum, there's a thread there trying to cast doubt on the Videoscan figures and also on the motives of Home Media Magazine, VideoScan, thedigitalbits and yours truly.

For the record, I don't doubt your desire for accuracy Grubert, nor the raw figures from Videoscan or NPD.

How they are used , like in a spinned story, or to mislead an uninformed reporter or to support Bill Hunt's gut feelings is another story.

The more facts we have the better off we are.

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post #1016 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:56 AM
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Just based on what I see in the stores it appears Blu-Ray is winning. For instance, Best Buy's stock of blu-ray movies has depleated and needs to be constantly re-stocked whereas HD-DVD areas have no more room on the shelves cause they simply aren't moving as fast.

Same situation at my local Wal-Mart as well...
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post #1017 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Welcome jipedk, and thanks!

The article is this: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2

So, that's why a good release week + adding in combos can causes a big jump relative to the SI. Neither format had sold 500K discs to some unspecified point in time.

It will be interesting to see what presistently top 50 DVD titles on Amazon like The Prestige (both formats) and Casino Royale (Blu-ray) will sell.

EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?

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post #1018 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:50 AM
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I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.
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post #1019 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:55 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

True - that's one million less per format than what I was expecting.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #1020 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

True - that's one million less per format than what I was expecting.

Its possible that apples and oranges are being counted.

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"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno



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