Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 37 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 
Thread Tools
post #1081 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 07:24 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?

think about it, it is not 175k sinse launch. In June Toshiba Global said they shipped the 20k player (WW), in Oct they shipped #50k (WW). Toshiba NA said last year 70k HD DVD players shipped (NA) and most likely around 60k sold (NA).

If 10k players sold to NA in the firt few months then even if the average is 5 movies it is still 50k.
AnthonyP is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #1082 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 07:40 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

it isn't if you think about it. The problem is that most people don't realize that shipped means left the replicator and means that in a few weeks that many will reach the distributor then the store and lastly the shelves, some would not have been at the store when you read the article (let alone have been bought when you read it- obviously there is a good chance they sold reached there by now). Then go look at your store (obviously a bit late now) how many disks are on the shelves? if there are 100 (to pick a nice round number) imagine how many stores there are and if many have roughly how many it adds up to.

no matter how many shipped you should always assume a fraction sold.
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1083 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 07:44 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Its possible that apples and oranges are being counted.

the only thing I can think (if one starts with the assumption that it is wrong) is that combos are missing. but then again it would make a less then 50k difference.
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1084 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 07:49 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Interesting that those are U.S. numbers only. And didn't they say that 90% of PS3 buyers were buying a movie? If so, then there should be about 2 million BD sales.

no, they said something like 80% of PS3 owners that took their poll said they will try BD movies or something like that. I don't remember them saying that the customers bought movies
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1085 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:00 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
I would like to agree with this analogy but it ignores the concept of "momentum". These things have a certain inertia about them, and the further ahead one side gets, the easier it is to get further ahead.

Skogan I would also add it is missing the big picture. The match was organized by the guy in Saw and there is a 20 ton weight covering the match and a timer ticking down to when it is released. The timer will be stopped if one is declared the winner. That 20 ton weight is DVD
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1086 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:03 PM
AVS Special Member
 
nataraj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: WA
Posts: 8,020
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
"According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

Quote:
"SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units."

These two don't make much sense. These people are just playing loose with figures ....
nataraj is offline  
post #1087 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:09 PM
Member
 
the blob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 111
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

150 x 60 = 9,000
9,000/2 = 4,500 per week
4,500/14,0000 = 32 % of stock level sold.

now:

32% x 1,500,000 = 480,000

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...
the blob is offline  
post #1088 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:09 PM
Member
 
the blob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 111
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
and i need to get out more obviously! lol!
the blob is offline  
post #1089 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:17 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player.

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won't buy anything.
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1090 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:21 PM
AVS Special Member
 
raaj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Near the lovely City by the Bay
Posts: 2,801
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 24 Post(s)
Liked: 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won't buy anything.

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?
raaj is offline  
post #1091 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:24 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Yea PS3 is cheaper but it doesn't pass the WAF for the rest of the country that are not gamers.

sure looks like you are wrong

I WAS sitting the format war out, but looks like the wife made the decision for me
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1092 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:27 PM
Advanced Member
 
awmurray's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj View Post

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

You took the words right out of my mouth. Great minds think alike.
awmurray is offline  
post #1093 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:29 PM
Advanced Member
 
awmurray's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

sure looks like you are wrong

I WAS sitting the format war out, but looks like the wife made the decision for me

This sounds like this thread's numbers. ONE data point doesn't establish a trend.
awmurray is offline  
post #1094 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:37 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1095 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:45 PM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

BD has proven to be the better format only on paper. In real life, HD DVD has been better. Although arguably, they are about the same.

Still, HD DVD would require less retooling of the replication facilities, and cost less, (yes, even cost to replicate). So kill BD
skogan is offline  
post #1096 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:45 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Timothy Ramzyk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: milwaukee
Posts: 3,279
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeorgeLV
I know in HD DVD land there's only one game in town to get a player from, but I assure you that a Samsung or Philips BD standalone player can be had for $500.

Isn't that kind of like saying the Black & Decker Blu-ray can be had for $500 when the Dewalt HD-DVD sells for $380?
Timothy Ramzyk is offline  
post #1097 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:48 PM
Advanced Member
 
awmurray's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

I thought HD DVD still had the higher SI numbers. Am I wrong?

Are you still trying to use that one data point to prove a trend? Hopefully (for you) a trend will emerge... but for right now you're putting a lot of meaning on it.
awmurray is offline  
post #1098 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:49 PM
AVS Special Member
 
raaj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Near the lovely City by the Bay
Posts: 2,801
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 24 Post(s)
Liked: 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

No, because BD continues to feed people BS. Until I see full disclosure from BDA about the truth regarding their players and their capabilities, I will continue to point out the fallacy of buying into spec sheets rather than finished products.
raaj is offline  
post #1099 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:50 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
This sounds like this thread's numbers. ONE data point doesn't establish a trend.

you are right, but like this thread you have some people posting some self-deluded comments with no proof and others trying to understand the real world looking for clues and trying to understand what they mean. And no matter how many datapoints are added they can't compete withg those delusions.

The PS3 is a sexy machine and extremely WAF friendly. I dare you to put any of the stand alone players together, the 360 with add on and a PS3 and ask women what they would rather have and see which one has the most positive reviews
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1100 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 08:52 PM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

The PS3 is a sexy machine ...

Okay, now I'm concerned...


skogan is offline  
post #1101 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:06 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:


I thought HD DVD still had the higher SI numbers. Am I wrong?

the last data point(VS balance graph) was Jan 21 now we are Feb 7. There was http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2 posted a few pages back. My guess this is based on Feb 3 numbers. We will see in a week or two
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1102 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:08 PM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

the last data point(VS balance graph) was Jan 21 now we are Feb 7. There was http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2 posted a few pages back. My guess this is based on Feb 3 numbers. We will see in a week or two

Sony claimed they just pulled ahead, so I would expect this fridays NPD numbers to show a very small SI lead for BD.
skogan is offline  
post #1103 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:12 PM
AVS Special Member
 
b2bonez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Ducking for cover....
Posts: 5,484
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by the blob View Post

okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

150 x 60 = 9,000
9,000/2 = 4,500 per week
4,500/14,0000 = 32 % of stock level sold.

now:

32% x 1,500,000 = 480,000

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...

Were are stock levels listed on Amazon ?

b2b

"Listen, You Pencil Neck Geeks.." 'Classy' Freddie Blassie ~ 1918-2003
A Toshiba spokesman, said that "from an engineer's point of view, the Blu-ray is a masterpiece.."
b2bonez is offline  
post #1104 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:16 PM
Member
 
the blob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 111
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
check the eproductwars site.. they have a graph for overall stock and individual stock amounts for each title.
the blob is offline  
post #1105 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:19 PM
AVS Club Gold
 
Kosty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: North East USA
Posts: 14,683
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

Were are stock levels listed on Amazon ?

If you go to the dvdwars site.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Scroll down to the bottom where the individual images of the titles are.

There you will see by each title the Amazon items in stock listing for each title.

Of course thats the automatically robot calculated level, and Amazon is famously known for its deistributed virtual stockage capability , direct from supplier fufillment shipping and Just in Time inventory practices, but at least its something else to consider. It might be useful considering that weve see a lot of Amazon out of stock issues for some titles.

.
"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno


follow me on Twitter
Kosty is offline  
post #1106 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:22 PM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Interestingly enough, The Departed is number one for both HD DVD and BD, with HD DVD ranking of 36 and BD ranking of 40. Of course, that could change at any moment.
skogan is offline  
post #1107 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:23 PM
Senior Member
 
RustyC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kaneohe, HI
Posts: 458
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by the blob View Post

...I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

...now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...

Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.
RustyC is offline  
post #1108 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:38 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
darinp2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 21,236
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 63 Post(s)
Liked: 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Still, HD DVD would require less retooling of the replication facilities, and cost less, (yes, even cost to replicate). So kill BD

Get the TL51 discs with 1.5x spin rate out and then I might not mind if BD got killed off at that point.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
darinp2 is offline  
post #1109 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:40 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
AnthonyP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 17,632
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:


Sony claimed they just pulled ahead, so I would expect this fridays NPD numbers to show a very small SI lead for BD.

NPD does not do SW, VS does, and the other place we get them from are roughly two weeks behind, like you I think it is last weeks results (hell Sony might even be getting daily updates, so it might not even be on a weekends numbers.
AnthonyP is offline  
post #1110 of 9375 Old 02-07-2007, 09:42 PM
Advanced Member
 
abr27440's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Bentonville, AR
Posts: 603
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyC View Post

Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.

Not counted, just like Talladega Nights with the ps3.
abr27440 is offline  
Closed Thread HDTV Software Media Discussion

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off