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post #91 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:15 PM
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2 weeks is a short interval especially since HD DVD has released very few movies and BD has done a great job in this regard. It is clear the BD has outsold HD DVD since January 1 based on this data.

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.
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post #92 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:16 PM
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I think this is the important question going forward for the PS3:

Will the PS3 continue to enjoy this high of an attachment rate or will it drop off considerable when games people want to play are announced? There's two things you could argue:

1) A lot of blu-ray supporters waited for the PS3 to buy a Blu-ray player.
2) A lot of people bought the PS3 for gaming, but now that there aren't that many top shelves games, are buying movies instead.

I think both of these are very important issues. It's clear to me right now that a lot of people are using the ps3 simply for movies. In fact, as others have said, it may even be arguable whether more people are using it for movies or games. I don't think that kind of sales ratio will happen going forward. Hence, the question is will the trend say intacted or level off.

I suspect we won't get a better answer until sometime in April/May. At that point, it will be interesting to make comparisons due to the length of timt the PS3 has been out and an increase in HD-DVD software. We shall see.

Fortunately, I'll be format neutral by they and will have some of the pressure off of me. I really just want great content so I'll go with the flow.

Chris
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post #93 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyoniner View Post

I think saying things like this should be reserved for people who actually work for Sony or Toshiba. Don't you think?

We don't. We are just movie lovers and most of us just want the war to be over quickly. And most of us actually have a life I would assume, and when we are eating dinner with our father or seeing our niece walk for the first time or giving a hug to our fiance, we all realize that allegiance to a brand of "high definition movie disc" is meaningless. The reason I always supported Blu-ray is because I always thought it had the easiest chance of winning (just Universal going neutral) so the war would be over and we could get on with discussing movies and off this ridiculous talk of "allegiances" and phrases like "hang in there." I mean that's the kind of thing you tell someone when they find out their mother has breast cancer. Wouldn't you agree the word "defeatist" should not apply to someone who no longer cares about supporting only one brand at any cost? I don't get why someone be "giving up" if they went brand neutral and just decided to buy more movies.

This goes not just for you but for all of us. The arguments were fun, but I think we need some healthy perspective.

For a guy who regularly incites flame wars and posts completely made up nonsense, it's rather hysterical seeing this come from you.

In fact, I laughed so hard when I read your heartfelt "note" that beer shot out of my nose.

If you really cared about movies, you'd go watch some and stop baiting HD-DVD owners.
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post #94 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

When the remote control sells more than most games and game related controllers, that would be one inference, no?

Yes
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post #95 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

For a guy who regularly incites flame wars and posts completely made up nonsense, it's rather hysterical seeing this come from you.

In fact, I laughed so hard when I read your heartfelt "note" that beer shot out of my nose.

If you really cared about movies, you'd go watch some and stop baiting HD-DVD owners.

Whatever. Welcome to my ignore list. I'm over this attack each other BS... all over "movies." Glad I amuse you.
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post #96 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyoniner View Post

I think saying things like this should be reserved for people who actually work for Sony or Toshiba. Don't you think?

We don't. We are just movie lovers and most of us just want the war to be over quickly. And most of us actually have a life I would assume, and when we are eating dinner with our father or seeing our niece walk for the first time or giving a hug to our fiance, we all realize that allegiance to a brand of "high definition movie disc" is meaningless. The reason I always supported Blu-ray is because I always thought it had the easiest chance of winning (just Universal going neutral) so the war would be over and we could get on with discussing movies and off this ridiculous talk of "allegiances" and phrases like "hang in there." I mean that's the kind of thing you tell someone when they find out their mother has breast cancer. Wouldn't you agree the word "defeatist" should not apply to someone who no longer cares about supporting only one brand at any cost? I don't get why someone be "giving up" if they went brand neutral and just decided to buy more movies.

This goes not just for you but for all of us. The arguments were fun, but I think we need some healthy perspective.

Nice post
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post #97 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Nice post

Thanks Sketcha.
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post #98 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew P View Post

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.

The first post has SI (or Since Inception) numbers. HD DVD has the lead, but that is rapidly being closed upon.
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post #99 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:23 PM
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Indeed this is great for BD and the future of the format. But I think it is very premature to say HD DVD is dead. I think in a year from now we will know exactly what is going to happen. I don't think HD DVD could ever win this format war outright. But my money is still on co-existence.
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post #100 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew P View Post

2 weeks is a short interval especially since HD DVD has released very few movies and BD has done a great job in this regard. It is clear the BD has outsold HD DVD since January 1 based on this data.

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.


You didn't need to follow the thread, just the original post.

Over 2 weeks ago, BD had sold 92.4% as many discs as HD DVD since inception of each.

It's not hard to extrapolate that BD could have surpassed HD DVD by now.
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post #101 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew P View Post

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.

The SI numbers in the first post represent total sales "Since Inception" of the formats.

Week ended Jan 7
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

Week ended Jan 14
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

So, in one WEEK, BD went from 85% of HD DVD total sales to 92.4%. If the trend continued, BD is now ahead of HD DVD in total disc sales.

Gary


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post #102 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schlotkins View Post

I think this is the important question going forward for the PS3:

Will the PS3 continue to enjoy this high of an attachment rate or will it drop off considerable when games people want to play are announced? There's two things you could argue:

1) A lot of blu-ray supporters waited for the PS3 to buy a Blu-ray player.
2) A lot of people bought the PS3 for gaming, but now that there aren't that many top shelves games, are buying movies instead.

I think both of these are very important issues. It's clear to me right now that a lot of people are using the ps3 simply for movies. In fact, as others have said, it may even be arguable whether more people are using it for movies or games. I don't think that kind of sales ratio will happen going forward. Hence, the question is will the trend say intacted or level off.

I suspect we won't get a better answer until sometime in April/May. At that point, it will be interesting to make comparisons due to the length of timt the PS3 has been out and an increase in HD-DVD software. We shall see.

Fortunately, I'll be format neutral by they and will have some of the pressure off of me. I really just want great content so I'll go with the flow.

Chris

This I have said ad nauseum. When the games start rolling out, MORE PS3s will be sold. It is MHO and the opinion of many others that this will easily offset any diminished attachment rate.
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post #103 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:29 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Yeah, I was kind of surprised to hear this one out of plaz.

Obviously the PS3 is a trojan horse. Normally consoles aren't money makers, the software is. In this case there are 2, major types of software that Sony has a huge hand in.

I would say their long term outlook is pretty rosy.

My point is that you gotta have a business model that works:

1. IF PS3 is a game console then you need to make money by selling games. So far, it does not seem Sony is really doing that.

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.

3. IF it is both. Then the subsidy on the player needs to be smaller than a game only device since it is expected that x% of consoles will be used primarily as a video player and hence will have a lower game attachment rate.

4. IF Sony is able to subsidize a game console as a video player since their margin on movies is high. Then it is total craziness for any hardware vendor to sign up for BD! How do they make money??

5. IF you are a movie studio and you know that the primary hardware is a subsizied player where the vendor is hoping to make money out of royalties, what does it do from a pricing perspective? Games cost $60, will movie prices also approach that?

I am not sure how things are rosier with BD for Sony? Price competition is going to get more aggressive, not less. Would people buy BD movies IF they cost 2x and HD DVD one? We already know people won't buy players that cost 2x as much....so where is the money (profits going to come from?) Will Sony continue to subsidize hardware and software until HD DVD goes away? Will HD DVD go away, if they are aware of this achilles heel?

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet. Let's see how the next Q turns out for Sony. No holiday buying, no yen depreciation, with 4x as many PS3 consoles....If they show profit growth and cut losses in their game division, I'll admit it's all rosey for sony
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post #104 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Then if you go back to the same Home Media Magazine you'll see that none of the top 5 games sold were PS3 games. The top 4 were xbox 360.

Yes, of course, but what does that have to do with anything? The 360 has 6x install base over the PS3, of course they would sell more games than the PS3 at this point in time.

Let me ask you for a wild guess. What percentage of PS3 owners do you believe have bought one or more games? I would say nearly 100%.

Now what percentage do you think have bought a movie? What ever that number is, it is well less than 100%, wouldn't you agree?

That surely indicates that more PS3 owners consider their box a game console first, and a movie player second, at least to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

...
Also, it does appear that many people have indeed bought the PS3 for movies. Look at the sales rank of the remote control. It outsells the wireless controller and most games. At this is just a few months after launch. So, to infer that the PS3 is being viewed and seen as a serious BD video device is not a hyperbole at all! Even Sound and Vision in their latest edition has the PS3 on the cover as the best BD player!!!

Overall, I guess I still stand by my assertion that the xbox add on drive cannot match the impact of the PS3 in the format battle. At least not yet.

I am not making a judgment on Sonys' business model either. That's another topic

It's far different to say that the PS3 is being bought for movies, then to say that more PS3 owners consider it primarily a movie player than a game player. You went further than just to "infer that the PS3 is being viewed and seen as a serious BD video device". If that was all you had said, I could have agreed with you. The hyperbole was when you went the extra step and declared that the majority of PS3 owners viewed it as movie player first and a game machine second. That is what I disagreed with.
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post #105 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:31 PM
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What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?
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post #106 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

You didn't need to follow the thread, just the original post.

Over 2 weeks ago, BD had sold 92.4% as many discs as HD DVD since inception of each.

It's not hard to extrapolate that BD could have surpassed HD DVD by now.

Thanks for the info. I look forward to next weeks numbers to see if BD has indeed surpassed HD DVD since inception. The next statistic I would like to see is numbers of movies sold. This will be the true test. I imagine it is very low for both formats.
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post #107 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.
[/b]

Even on slim margins, the volume makes up for it. This whole format wars isn't about who gets to manufacture the hardware. It's about who gets to collect the royalty checks. Sony doesn't need to make money off the PS3 as a video player, they only need to make sure that BD becomes the standard. After that point, it doesn't matter who makes the products, they'll get their checks through the IP.
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post #108 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

For a guy who regularly incites flame wars and posts completely made up nonsense, it's rather hysterical seeing this come from you.

In fact, I laughed so hard when I read your heartfelt "note" that beer shot out of my nose.

If you really cared about movies, you'd go watch some and stop baiting HD-DVD owners.

I think he is expressing a battle weary sentiment that many of us are feeling. Of course it's easy to do when your team appears to be winning, but I believe it is no less genuine.

As sappy as this sounds, this war has taken it's toll. When it's over, regardless of who wins, healing will be required so we can all move on and discuss our love for the hobby.
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post #109 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Let me ask you for a wild guess. What percentage of PS3 owners do you believe have bought one or more games? I would say nearly 100%.

Now what percentage do you think have bought a movie? What ever that number is, it is well less than 100%, wouldn't you agree?

That surely indicates that more PS3 owners consider their box a game console first, and a movie player second, at least to me.

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.
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post #110 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

I don't share the pain. There have been more new releases coming from the Blu-ray camp. Many HD DVD owners are sitting on their wallets waiting for a release that's worthy of a purchase.

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio. Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.

Isn't that the truth!! And once they're on a roll...watch those scales tip to the breaking point...
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post #111 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:38 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Even on slim margins, the volume makes up for it. This whole format wars isn't about who gets to manufacture the hardware. It's about who gets to collect the royalty checks. Sony doesn't need to make money off the PS3 as a video player, they only need to make sure that BD becomes the standard. After that point, it doesn't matter who makes the products, they'll get their checks through the IP.

We'll see
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post #112 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by JBCricket View Post

What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?

Somehow i don't see that happening, if ms have room to move on the 360 price, they're better off just dropping it to further gain more market share in the console race. MS have lost around 5-6 billion in the console race already, their goal is to win that war, while sony is chasing bluray, this is their best opportunity ever.

In actually fact i get the feeling ms are just keeping hd-dvd alive just to cause sony grief with bluray so their focus and ability to execute well in the console arena is impaired.

MS have way more to gain with 360 being console market leader than hd-dvd. Also I get the feeling ms want to chase things like IPTV and downloadable movies. Entertainment is moving to a more online focused thing, so who wins this format war might just end up being a short lived victory.
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post #113 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet.

I believe the VHS vs Betamax war lasted something like 8 years. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long, but I agree we haven't seen the end of the game yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36

Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14

I know we've talked about these numbers not really matching with the ones on thedvdwars.com and hdgamedb.com which show Amazon rankings, but I thought it would be interesting to actually look at the graph for the last 30 days for the average ranking of the top 10 titles on each format.

Here it is:

What we should be able to see (at least until it updates and the data moves off the graph to the left) is that for the week ending January 7th, the Amazon rankings had HD DVD ahead the whole time with an average of about 750 for HD DVD to about 1050-1100 for Blu-ray. That is when it was over 2:1 for Blu-ray by the Nielsen numbers. For the week ending January 14th, the Amazon rankings have HD DVD ahead the whole time, but it is close.

Taking the Neilsen numbers and just taking a guess that the same number of Blu-ray titles sold in each week to see what that would result in, we can say that for every Blu-ray title sold in the week ending January 7th, HD DVD sold .4714 titles. If Blu-ray sold the same number the next week, then HD DVD would be at to .7652 for every 2 BDs sold. Subtracting (.7652 - .4714) results in .2938. Or 100.00 to 29.38 for the week ending on January 14th (of course without 4 digits of accuracy). But, it does look like Blu-ray sold 3:1 against HD DVD for the week ending on the 14th according the the Nielsen numbers, despite the Amazon numbers showing HD DVD in the lead for the average top 10 ranking that week. Now that the Amazon numbers show Blu-ray in the lead for the top 10 average, I wonder what the Nielsen numbers will look like next time.

--Darin

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post #114 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.


That would be a relevent point if the question were "does the PS3 have a bigger effect on gaming or movies?" But that wasn't the question.

He made the statement that a greater number of PS3 owners thought of the PS3 as a movie player first and a game console second. The people who bought it for movies may well have bought more movies than the people who bought it for games did games, but that is irrelevent. The gross number of people who bought it primarily as a movies player vs. the number who bought it primarily as a game console is all that matters, for this conversation. Even if the gamers were casual buyers, while the movie watchers were intense buyers, it wouldn't matter.

I know I didn't do a good job of explaining that, but hopefully you can see what I mean. For the purposes of this discussion, it wouldn't matter how many movies you bought. You are either a person who sees the PS3 as primarily a game machine, or a person who see it as primarily a movie machine.
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post #115 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:54 PM
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I dont know what everyone expected. Sony has been a market leader in electronics longer than MS has been in buisness. They know what they are doing. If you made the mistake of taking "some guy" on this message boards words of wisdom as scripture then you will be made a fool. If a regular here knew better what to do than Sony, they would likely be spending far less time here and more running a company like Sony. Like them or hate them, Sony knows what they are doing. I just wish HD DVD would throw in the towel and let me have all the movies on my PS3. Between Resistance online and Blu Ray movies the Playstation 3 is already worth the purchase price. If you think Sony cares if you play movies or games on their system your nuts, either way they will be making money off Blu Ray disc sales, royalties etc. Some people just dont know when to quit.

I bent my wookie.
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post #116 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:56 PM
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...

Ok gotcha, agreed.
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post #117 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post


I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.


Also, I think I disagree with this as well, as a factual matter. (I'm not certain though)

As a wild guess, I'm going to say that the PS3 has a 2 game attach rate at this point. If so, it would have sold roughly 3- 4 million games. Do you believe there have been more than 3 million BD sells since November? I would want to see that. To be honest, I don't know what the gross sales numbers are like, but I would like to see if that is true.
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post #118 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 04:59 PM
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Wait a minute. YTD means 2007 not 2006 thru 2007 right? IF YTD means 2007 (which it should) why wouldn't BD be ahead in sales? What was the ratio of movie releases this month?
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post #119 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 05:00 PM
 
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Let's see when Sony can make some money off this. Also, I'm hoping Home Media Magazine continues to put out Videoscan sales data so we can track the progress. Right now, this data shows huge momentum for BD.

Press release from BDA about this soon?
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post #120 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 05:04 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shug7272 View Post

I dont know what everyone expected. Sony has been a market leader in electronics longer than MS has been in buisness. They know what they are doing. If you made the mistake of taking "some guy" on this message boards words of wisdom as scripture then you will be made a fool. If a regular here knew better what to do than Sony, they would likely be spending far less time here and more running a company like Sony. Like them or hate them, Sony knows what they are doing. I just wish HD DVD would throw in the towel and let me have all the movies on my PS3. Between Resistance online and Blu Ray movies the Playstation 3 is already worth the purchase price. If you think Sony cares if you play movies or games on their system your nuts, either way they will be making money off Blu Ray disc sales, royalties etc. Some people just dont know when to quit.

excellent post
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