Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 40 - AVS Forum
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post #1171 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Hmmm, I don't think so.

I think it's real-time data updated regularly throughout the week that describes, in this case, the week beginning February 6th. And the weeks reported are Tuesday through Monday I believe, not Friday through Thursday.

Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

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post #1172 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Couldn't the re-stocked A2's have generated more new-owner sales?

That's my thought too. But I need to see Amazon sales trend tick upward for me to be sure about that.

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post #1173 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Plazman I wouldn't waste any time trying to reconcile these disparate reports with one another, because no doubt it will lead us to nowhere.

Finally, something I can agree with 100%.


Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

I say we just wait for the next Nielsen numbers and take it from there. If we try to work Videoscan vs corporate announcement vs NPD, we're just going to be left in utter confusion.

The assumption is that the Nielson numbers are somehow more accurate than the other discredited numbers. That could be a stretch.
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post #1174 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

My guess would be their reporting week starts with Tuesday to coincide with release day.
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post #1175 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

I went through this earlier in the thread. I originally thought it was for the week ending on the given date as well, but now I believe it's the contrary.

It's as simple as this - if the data changes for the week of Feb 6th between now and the 13th, I'm right and it's the week beginning. If it doesn't, then you're right and it's the week ending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnu View Post

The assumption is that the Nielson numbers are somehow more accurate than the other discredited numbers. That could be a stretch.

Not about being accurate or not, so much as being a trend indicator that will appear every single week to give us a glimpse of insight. What filters we choose to apply to that data as rational human beings is another matter entirely, but at least this can form the lynchpin for future apples-to-apples comparisons.
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post #1176 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Couldn't the re-stocked A2's have generated more new-owner sales?

Bingo!

That A2 price war online helps too.

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post #1177 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
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Quote:


There needs to be a rule added to this thread stating that you must check your conspiracy theories at the door.

The point some are making is that the current volumes are so low compared to regular DVD player or disc sales that the normally reporting methods are inaccurate or unreliable or more volatile than usual.

Its not so much a conspiracy, but that its too early to make grand pronouncements on either side because the HD sales are still small and immature in volume.

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post #1178 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

It's as simple as this - if the data changes for the week of Feb 6th between now and the 13th, I'm right and it's the week beginning. If it doesn't, then you're right and it's the week ending.

Totally agree.

Its not you or me being wrong or right , its us both trying to accurately understand their methodology.

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post #1179 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

Bingo!

That A2 price war online helps too.

Unless all HD DVD retailers are complete idiots, price wars are always the sign of too much supply chasing too little demand.

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post #1180 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

Bingo!

That A2 price war online helps too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWWHi7aYTyU
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post #1181 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Unless all HD DVD retailers are complete idiots, price wars are always the sign of too much supply chasing too little demand.

Gary

Not in the first weeks of a product launch.

They also could be a sign of nice dealer margins that give room for discounts.

Or other factory discounts or dealer rebates. In the latest Toshiba $200 off HD DVD HDTV promotion, dealers were given additional incentive payments.

This could just be a sign that Toshiba is started to give promotional dollars to the retail channel to encourage sales.

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post #1182 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Not in the first weeks of a product launch.

They also could be a sign of nice dealer margins that give room for discounts.

Or other factory discounts or dealer rebates. In the latest Toshiba $200 off HD DVD HDTV promotion, dealers were given additional incentive payments.

This could just be a sign that Toshiba is started to give promotional dollars to the retail channel to encourage sales.

I forgot about the $200 rebate, it was on the front page of the Fry's ads.

I believe Robert was saying that at $369, that A2 on Amazon was very close to dealer cost.

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post #1183 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

Promotional service and advertising isn't a method of messing with sales figures, it's business. Saying figures are skewed by better stocking and advertising is ridiculous.

If Coke sells better than Pepsi in 60% of grocery stores because they have an endcap, more cans and bottles in stock, and better advertising, would you say that the Coke vs. Pepsi sales numbers are worthless?


If I pay the grocery $10,000 to put Coke on the end of the isle and stock 3X as much as Pepsi, and while I do that Coke sales are marginally better (not by 3X as much though). However, if as soon as a I stop paying, Coke and Pepsi sales become even again, then yes, I would say that the sales numbers were worthless while I was paying $10,000. The reason, the $10,000 was paying to take space away from my competitor for me to use, and I could only sustain that performance level while paying $10,000 out of pocket. As soon as I could no longer afford to pay that, and space allotted was back to 50/50, then true supply and demand was represented. While I was paying, it was creating an artificial supply and demand.

Same thing at Meijers. They said we will stock no HD-DVD or BD products. Then both formats said, "What if we pay you?" Meijer said, sure, we will give you shelf space if you pay us, and it costs $X for X amount of space. True sales could be reflected in this situation, but they equally may not be. I went there a few times looking for a copy of Aeon Flux on HD-DVD. They didn't have it on HD-DVD, but they did on BD. Why? Because BD was paying them to stock 3X the number of titles. If HD-DVD had done the same (both supplies equal), then they may have had that HD-DVD, they would have had a HD-DVD sale. So their actual sales don't reflect their true potential sales because product is only being represented based on how much is paid, and not based on actual customer demand. This is essentially a skewing of the data, which depending on volume, may skew the results of someplace like Nielsen, if they collected Meijer's data.

Are you saying someplace like Circuit City, that didn't sell HD-DVD at all, was not skewing their sales results in favor of Blu-ray by not carrying HD-DVD? Are you saying their sales data represents the true demand of their customers with 100% of sales being BD and 0% being HD-DVD? If so, then you must also be claiming that now that they do carry HD-DVD, they will sell 0 copies, because the past sales data wasn't skewed and represented the true demand of their customers.

Further, I may pay $10,000 to put Coke on display, but only sell $9000 worth of Coke. I've lost money doing so, even though I may have sold more than Pepsi. However, Pepsi made a profit and I experienced a loss despite higher sales. So how are my higher sales actually representing the success of my business in this case?
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post #1184 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:39 PM
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The DVDEmpire numbers were like this last week. Consumers at DVDEmpire tends to stock up on preorders. DVDEmpire do not count preorders as sales but they do ship new releases for the coming week on Fridays. Those new numbers are usually added and posted the following Saturday. For next week, there are 12 new Blu-Ray releases vs 1 new HD DVD release. The numbers for these new releases will be added this Saturday.

So the usual trend at DVDEmpire is the side with more upcoming releases tend to do better at the end of the week when the new release numbers are added. With a lot of consumers stocking up on preorders, the beginning of the week tend to be slanted towards the side with fewer upcoming releases ...if that makes sense at all.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #1185 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

There needs to be a rule added to this thread stating that you must check your conspiracy theories at the door. Nielsen is an unbiased source of data (as far as we know) so speculating that they would select retailers which favored Blu-ray over retailers which favor HD DVD is ridiculous. This data is provided with the assumption that all variables are equal between the formats - whether that be sales space or retailer participation. If you start hunting for possible discrepancies, you are going to find them. If those discrepancies or valid or even logical is something that can not be determined and only lead to finding even more possible discrepancies.

Look, if you can't buy an HD DVD in a store that sells Blu-ray, then tough. That is up to Toshiba to make sure that their product is visible to consumers. It it not for Nielson to discriminate against stores for not advertising equaly, or worse, hunt for stores which do. Isolating data will give you worse results then taking it in total.

You can only sell a product that is made available to consumers. If your excuse for these numbers is that the product is not being made available, then that is a valid factor in sales data, and should not be ignored. But, it also does not invalidate the data gather, is it merely an explanation of the data (similar to pointing out that snow shovel sales increase in the winter; law sprinklers don't lag in sales because they get less advertising - only because the snow shovel is wanted more by consumers).

BD fans seem so edgy. Did I say Nielsen targeted retailers based on if they sold BD or HD-DVD? No, I did not. Likely the retailers they use are the same ones they have used for years for DVD. Now some of these retailers may only sell BD, some may only sell HD-DVD, some may sell both, and some may sell neither.

So Nielsen may not even represent 60% of the market. If only 50% of their retailers sell a hi-def format, then Nielson may only represent 30% of the market.

Both formats are too early in their product life, and neither have established themselves as a retail presence. The volumes are just to low. Some retailers haven't even decided what formats they want to sell, i.e. Circuit City. The current market is too volitale and too small for anyone to take away any meaningful trends.

It isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a fact of how the system works.

You are also wrong that there is any assumption of sales space being equal, or anything else for that matter. Nielsen has an agreement with retail partners to count their barcode scans. Nielsen has no input into how they do business. Nielsen just reports the barcode scans. If the wrong group is being sampled, or if a large number of sales occur somewhere they aren't sampling, then the results won't reflect the actual market.

At least you are willing to admit there are descrepencies. Why you want to turn a blind eye to the consequences of what these descreprencies might mean, on a product that has such a low volume, is beyond me.
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post #1186 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:52 PM
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The thing no stats are going to tell you, at least right away, is the profit margin.

If Sony subsidizes studio's production cost on disks, buys up end caps, pays for special buy1 get one free sales, their profits go down, but sales go up. Then they have some numbers to crow about, and give the appearance of consumers choosing BD because they think it's already winning or it wouldn't be in so many places.

It's the kind of thing a company as huge as Sony can do because their pockets are so deep.

So in the short term they are buying themselves the appearance of some success.
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post #1187 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 12:58 PM
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Me thinks, it just means that the volume of BD and HD DVD sales are just too small...

Hong.

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post #1188 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Hmmm, I don't think so.

I think it's real-time data updated regularly throughout the week that describes, in this case, the week beginning February 6th. And the weeks reported are Tuesday through Monday I believe, not Friday through Thursday.


DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question.
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post #1189 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question.

That was the question.

They were just updated this morning today , Thursday , Febuary 8th for the week ending Tuesday, Febuary 6th. The monthly and yearly stats were updated today also.

One question is whether the months stats are consisting of 28 or 35 day months (even 4 or 5 week months) or based on actual first through last day monthly stats. For example, in broadcast media sales, the months are broken into even 7 day weeks.

http://www.rab.com/public/research/2...stCalendar.pdf

I would guess here that aren't that precise and their stats would be calendar months and so the 7 day weekly period stats would overlap the calculation of some months.

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post #1190 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:23 PM
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Political posts removed.

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post #1191 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question.

That is the question, but I don't think that's the answer.

The last documented update was on Saturday (or was it Sunday?) - the posts are here in this thread, and the change happened before our eyes. For the most recent change to be today doesn't sync with once a week.

So, I for one am going to bother to check these figures regularly from here on to the 13th, and that will provide us with a definitive answer seperate from everything else.
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post #1192 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:38 PM
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Let's look at another way in which predicting trends based on the limited volume of sales could go horribly wrong.

Let's take SCEA's word when they report 439,000 BD discs sold vs. 438,000 for HD-DVD. Let's assume that they have access to the actual Nielsen unit numbers, and this is what they are reporting. If so, the next HMM magazine should show a ratio of around 100/100.

However, lets also take Nielsen/Toshiba/Microsoft/Warner at their word too. We have an average attach rate of 8.4 discs per player and 175,000 players as of Dec. 31st. This would mean over 1.47 million HD-DVD discs sold.

This would mean that Nielsen is only capturing ~30% of HD-DVD's actual sales. What we wouldn't know is what percentage of BD sales are being captured. Anything more than ~30% means Nielsen's data is skewed. Nielsen is obviously missing many HD-DVD sales, but are the missing just as many BD sales? If they were catching ~50% of BD sales, it would mean that despite Nielsen showing BD ahead, HD-DVD would actually still be ahead. If the Nielsen data was skewed in any way (paid endcaps, dispraportionate ratio of format exclusive retailers, etc.), then the reported lead, or any trend based on the data, could be completely incorrect. It would even be possible for Nielsen to show one trend, while the reverse was actually true.

Until retailer penetration of HD formats increases, and until sales volumes increase by an order of magnitude, then I don't think any meaningful trends can be garnered from the data. Things like Nielsen numbers are just a curiousity that don't mean much, if anything.
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post #1193 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:44 PM
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Wnorris, are you sure you're talking about SCEA? I don't have that press release in front of me, but SCEA is the American Playstation division.
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post #1194 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Wnorris, are you sure you're talking about SCEA? I don't have that press release in front of me, but SCEA is the American Playstation division.

That is what the previous link earlier in this thread pointed to. An article that said SCEA divulged these numbers. If you look back a few pages, you will see I question their authority to release disc sales figures, since they are Sony's NA game division.

But Sony has done stranger things...

From Feb. 7,

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2
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post #1195 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 01:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Absolutely. Here is the data as we currently have it. I am taking numbers directly from sources that you have provided.

1. Videoscan seems to indicate BD sales since inception is ahead of HD DVD. HMM is the source.

2. This information is corraborrated by Sony. They say that BD has sold 439,000 movies so far to 438,000 for HD DVD.. Sony is source of this.

Sony's press release about disk sales is totally in-line with Videoscan.

3. ISony has shipped/sold over 1M PS3 Players. Sony's own press release is the source of this.

4. Based on data provided by Sony themselves, we have 2 PS3 for every BD movie sold!

5. Sony claims that their PS3 + BDP-1 have now captured 40% of the BD player market.. This is based on Sony's own press release. So, given there is 1M PS3 players, it would imply there are 2.5 M players sold from Samsung, Pio, Panny and Philips.

6. Putting this altogether we have 439,000 BD movies sold along with 3.5M BD players! I would expect the ratios to be reveresed. But the data says what it says.

7. We can further confuse this by putting in NPD's own findings that by Dec. HD DVD and BD players sold about the same number of units (exclusing the xbox add on and the PS3). Since, it's safe to assume that IF Sony is speaking the truth, that by Dec we probably had around 1M standalone BD players, there must have been 1M Tosh players sold as well!!!!

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is

While noone is doubting the likelyhood of BD gaining right now there really is something very fishy about some of those numbers.

2. That HD-DVD has only sold 438.000 to date seems very unlikely. Even if ALL the 175.000 players total (that everyone seems to agree on) were sold this month I don't think 2.5 movies per player is anywhere near correct. I would say almost anyone who buys a player buys three movies within a week. Also the 175.000 was some time back and there have surely been players sold during the weeks since as well.

Just to be clear, I don't think the number of 439.000 BD is correct either.

7. Even if we assume the numbers at 2. is somehow correct then with the same attach rate BD would according to the statement about selling an equal amount of standalones (roughly 100.000 units) have sold less than 200.000 to PS3 owners. With about 1.000.000 PS3 sold that would give an attach rate of much less than 20%. It would seem likely that at least some of the PS3 owners who bought one movie would have bought more. So the number of PS3 owners who actually bought a BD movie would be around 10% or so.

This at at time when everyone and his friend is falling over trying to explain the lack of PS3 sales the last month with stories about how there are no "killer" games for another few months. So they aren't playing games on them and sure aren't watching BD either.

The BD side needs to decide which numbers they are gonna belive in and admit that some of the others are incorrect.
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post #1196 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

That is the question, but I don't think that's the answer.

The last documented update was on Saturday (or was it Sunday?) - the posts are here in this thread, and the change happened before our eyes. For the most recent change to be today doesn't sync with once a week.

So, I for one am going to bother to check these figures regularly from here on to the 13th, and that will provide us with a definitive answer seperate from everything else.

Ahh, I had assumed it was weekly because it wasn't daily. I didn't even consider they may do it every three or four days or randomly.
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post #1197 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Not in the first weeks of a product launch.

Why is this suddenly being called by several of you "the first few weeks"?! The A2 came on the market in mid-December. That is almost TWO MONTHS ago.

What the heck is going on here? Was full production delayed another six weeks?

Gary


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post #1198 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

That is what the previous link earlier in this thread pointed to. An article that said SCEA divulged these numbers. If you look back a few pages, you will see I question their authority to release disc sales figures, since they are Sony's NA game division.

But Sony has done stranger things...

From Feb. 7,

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2

Yeah, well you are right! It's definitely SCEA that's credited there...

And that definitely is weird.
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post #1199 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

Why is this suddenly being called by several of you "the first few weeks"?!What the heck is going on here? Was full production delayed another six weeks?

Gary

They're probably just following Talkstr8t's lead

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post9713617
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post #1200 of 9375 Old 02-08-2007, 02:53 PM
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As for incentives being the reason for the low, low A2 prices. Wouldn't an important Toshiba dealer like Robert Zohn, who has done more for HD DVD sales than anyone, be in on these incentives?

His post

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTV Tivo Dealer View Post

This is the biggest mystery anyone could possibly imagine. Some of the prices I hear from members posting is actually below a volume dealers net cost.

To make things even harder to understand, I sometimes send these very low prices I hear about to Toshiba executives, and far more often then not the at cost or below cost sellers are not even direct Toshiba customers.

The absolute obsession so many have with the price they pay for their player is harming good solid and important retailers. And undoubtedly is a major reason a BB or CC is showing so little interest selling HD DVD decks.

Gary


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