Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 58 - AVS Forum
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post #1711 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdragon View Post


To help you believe me, here is my story: I sent an email to David.S.Anderson@nielsen.com (that I found on their website). David forwarded it to someone else within the organization (I won't publish that email id, of course). Finally, I received an email back with two documents. One document had full list of their retail partners (over 900 in total). The other document was an overview of their data collection methods and services. In both these documents, Amazon.com was mentioned as an example of a channel (they have combined reports as well as reports of individual channels).
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Well done sir.
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post #1712 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 02:41 PM
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Kosty,

While trying to mail those documents to you, I ran into difficulties with the mail server!!! They are only about 5MB each, word documents. No wonder MS went XML in Office 2007.

Anyway, I decided to convert them into PDF (I wanted to keep them in the form I received, but I have no choice right now). Instead of sending them to you, I am posting them here. I will try again later to send the original word documents to you.

Here they are:

 

Neilsen US Reporting Retailers.pdf 151.1767578125k . file

 

Nielsen VideoScan Overview 2'06.pdf 138.8369140625k . file

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post #1713 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 02:49 PM
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Thanks, Skogan.

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post #1714 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:34 PM
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Amazon is sold out on the XA2 again, I wonder if that's good or bad for HD-DVD?
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post #1715 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:39 PM
 
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Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

Kosty,

While trying to mail those documents to you, I ran into difficulties with the mail server!!! They are only about 5MB each, word documents. No wonder MS went XML in Office 2007.

Anyway, I decided to convert them into PDF (I wanted to keep them in the form I received, but I have no choice right now). Instead of sending them to you, I am posting them here. I will try again later to send the original word documents to you.

Here they are:

What is the difference between census and sample?
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post #1716 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Amazon is sold out on the XA2 again, I wonder if that's good or bad for HD-DVD?

It shows in stock for me right now, but they sell that one through a different place. The HD-A2 shows 374 in stock as of last night. From looking at the stock numbers it looks to me like they were selling about 12-15 per day on average, but the last couple of days have been selling about 4 per day (with the ranking dropping). The XA2 is ranked a little lower, so probably less than that.

BTW: It is possible that Amazon could get new stock just about every single day on the HD-A2 that just happens to make it look like they only sold 4-20 each day, but I doubt that. The line for in stock shows quite a bit of consistency and I doubt they get new stock just about every day that just happens to be slightly less than what they sold that day. With the ranking moving up today, I bet that the in stock numbers tonight point to them selling between 6 and 10 of the HD-A2s today.

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post #1717 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

I have no problem with that!



1. I don't work for ACNeilsen / VideoScan. (contrary to my interest in this thread, I am not good with numbers. )
2. I don't know what contracts they have with their partners. Please provide a link, or quote such contract so that I can believe you!

To help you believe me, here is my story: I sent an email to David.S.Anderson@nielsen.com (that I found on their website). David forwarded it to someone else within the organization (I won't publish that email id, of course). Finally, I received an email back with two documents. One document had full list of their retail partners (over 900 in total). The other document was an overview of their data collection methods and services. In both these documents, Amazon.com was mentioned as an example of a channel (they have combined reports as well as reports of individual channels).

The only reason I could not post those documents was because the server refused to upload them due to size (in hindsight, maybe it was for better!). If anyone is interested in these documents, please let me know how I can make them available.

Both these documents are (apparently) designed to give prospective customers a glimpse into the methods and resources used by Neilsen/VideoScan. It is quite impressive, and I can understand why people rely on their data.

I don't think this violates any confidentiality agreements. I remind you again to link/quote such a contract that you mentioned.

The purpose of my post was to put the misinformation regarding Amazon.com to rest after what I found out from Neilsen. If you have information to the contrary, please do post it here.

Thanks for the correction! The information I had about Videoscan not getting data from Amazon appears to be incorrect. I don't believe, Nielson can state that they get data from a source that they do not....

Did they describe the difference between how census v. sample works?

Also, given their extensive coverage, I am wondering why 2 independent sources have now told me that they've seen Nielson data and it shows around 1M combined disk sales for both formats. Of course one was Piadgeek.
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post #1718 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:46 PM
 
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

It shows in stock for me right now, but they sell that one through a different place. The HD-A2 shows 374 in stock as of last night. From looking at the stock numbers it looks to me like they were selling about 12-15 per day on average, but the last couple of days have been selling about 4 per day. The XA2 is ranked a little lower, so probably less than that.

BTW: It is possible that Amazon could get new stock just about every single day on the HD-A2 that just happens to make it look like they only sold 4-20 each day, but I doubt that. The line for in stock shows quite a bit of consistency and I doubt they get new stock just about every day that just happens to be slightly less than what they sold that day.

--Darin

Darin, I have to agree with you. However, if the A-2 is selling 4 a day and is ranked in the 300s. I wonder what the BD players are doing on this site!
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post #1719 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 03:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Darin, I have to agree with you. However, if the A-2 is selling 4 a day and is ranked in the 300s. I wonder what the BD players are doing on this site!

You'll laugh at this one. The BDP-S1 looks like they might have sold one or maybe zero in the last 2 weeks or so. With stock going up by 1 I'm guessing a return. They may end up getting stuck with more Samsungs than they want. They have 191 in stock and looks like they might be selling 2-3 per day. But the Sony is worse. They say they have 337 in stock and it doesn't look like they are selling at all. I think the PS3 is probably the dominant factor for Blu-ray software sales.

--Darin

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post #1720 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

You'll laugh at this one. The BDP-S1 looks like they might have sold one or maybe zero in the last 2 weeks or so. With stock going up by 1 I'm guessing a return. They may end up getting stuck with more Samsungs than they want. They have 191 in stock and looks like they might be selling 2-3 per day. But the Sony is worse. They say they have 337 in stock and it doesn't look like they are selling at all. I think the PS3 is probably the dominant factor for Blu-ray software sales.

--Darin

The standlones sell much better at B&M stores. In fact my friend's best buy (he's a manager) received 11 Sony Blu-ray players in Jan. 4 Sold in Jan, 6 sold in Feb. 1 left. Here's what happens:

"Ok, I want this Sony Tv, what's the best deal you can give me?"

"How about this Sir, see this $900 High definition player from Sony? - we'll give it to you for half !"

"Sounds good, we have a deal"



The same goes for Toshiba HD DVD players. But it's much harder to match a Toshiba tv with the player since Best Buy sells Sonys to Toshiba at a 20:1 ratio almost.

No animals were harmed in the creation of this sentence.
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post #1721 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

Kosty,

While trying to mail those documents to you, I ran into difficulties with the mail server!!! They are only about 5MB each, word documents. No wonder MS went XML in Office 2007.

Anyway, I decided to convert them into PDF (I wanted to keep them in the form I received, but I have no choice right now). Instead of sending them to you, I am posting them here. I will try again later to send the original word documents to you.

Here they are:

I got the original word documents you sent through Gmail.

Yep those are their marketing documents.

No breach of confidentiality. Very good job sir.

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post #1722 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

What is the difference between census and sample?

census is raw data 100% off their Point of Sale system, usually transferred electronically via EDI.

sample is just that , their POS system doesn't track or can't transfer real time data so the information is gathered from a random sample to accurately represent their sales volume.

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post #1723 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Your the one who asked the same question four times in two hours (three times in one hour). If you want to aggrevate with the same question asked repeatedly over and over, expect condescension.

I kept asking because I kept getting answers that were, at best incomplete and more like dodges.

Many here are saying that cancellations are seriously affecting the numbers, yet no one seems to have any idea how many cancellations occur. Maybe you do. I'm all ears.
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post #1724 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

The standlones sell much better at B&M stores. In fact my friend's best buy (he's a manager) received 11 Sony Blu-ray players in Jan.

Since Amazon has players for an average of 40% off compared to Best Buys 20-25%, I wonder why people would throw their $ away?

Then, all my DVD players are region free and have PAL converters, so I'm used to going on line.
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post #1725 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by kdragon View Post

I have no problem with that!



1. I don't work for ACNeilsen / VideoScan. (contrary to my interest in this thread, I am not good with numbers. )
2. I don't know what contracts they have with their partners. Please provide a link, or quote such contract so that I can believe you!

To help you believe me, here is my story: I sent an email to David.S.Anderson@nielsen.com (that I found on their website). David forwarded it to someone else within the organization (I won't publish that email id, of course). Finally, I received an email back with two documents. One document had full list of their retail partners (over 900 in total). The other document was an overview of their data collection methods and services. In both these documents, Amazon.com was mentioned as an example of a channel (they have combined reports as well as reports of individual channels).

The only reason I could not post those documents was because the server refused to upload them due to size (in hindsight, maybe it was for better!). If anyone is interested in these documents, please let me know how I can make them available.

Both these documents are (apparently) designed to give prospective customers a glimpse into the methods and resources used by Neilsen/VideoScan. It is quite impressive, and I can understand why people rely on their data.

I don't think this violates any confidentiality agreements. I remind you again to link/quote such a contract that you mentioned.

The purpose of my post was to put the misinformation regarding Amazon.com to rest after what I found out from Neilsen. If you have information to the contrary, please do post it here.

You do realize that not everything exists in cyberspace and can be linked. I already put a direct quote of what I was told in a previous post. Look back through if you missed it. Maybe someone wasn't doing their job and did send you a list, but I still find it hard to believe they would violate their confidentality agreement to a stranger off the street. I'll believe it when I see it.

However, Bookscan does mention Amazon.com as a partner, so it isn't a stretch that they would contribute to Videoscan too.
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post #1726 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 08:05 PM
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I'm afraid I can't believe what you are saying. Nielsen has a confidentiality agreement with their partners that states they will not publish a list of participating members.

wnoris. I guess what you are saying is that no one can have any idea of the members because VS won't tell anyone. If that is true, how did you know and state as a fact many pages back that when they say on line they don't really have any but put that they track online sales because of stuff like bestbuy.com? And then you ask if others are about FUD
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post #1727 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 08:21 PM
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Not sure what happened here .. but one way the stock can go up without restocking is if there are cancellations.

Nataraj, in theory I would agree with you, but the issue is that it jumped by 30 (one title) in an a 1/2 hour from 16:15-16:45. what is the coincidence that 30+ people will cancel a the same movie in 1/2 an hour?
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post #1728 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

Nataraj, in theory I would agree with you, but the issue is that it jumped by 30 (one title) in an a 1/2 hour from 16:15-16:45. what is the coincidence that 30+ people will cancel a the same movie in 1/2 an hour?

Actually none.

However, what IS the most obvious explanation is that they just received 30 MORE discs of that title into stock... not 30 cancellations...
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post #1729 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Talkstr8t View Post

Plazman, you've done some interesting analysis but your premise is flawed. Sales of pre-release discs won't show as a drop in remaining stock, so they'll be invisible based on your method. Given that Blu-ray has many more titles available for pre-order than HD DVD you would expect there are many more pre-orders being booked for Blu-ray, yet these won't show up in your calculations.

- Talk

Unless Amazon is getting new stock slower than new orders...
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post #1730 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 09:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill0711 View Post

When looking at the data I did notice two anomalies, both on the HD side. For Batman Begins, and for the Mummy, there were large increases in stock levels (200 copies) followed by a quick drop to almost the same starting level within a few hours or days. Unless someone is buying 200 copies of something the most likely cause would be input error followed by correction.

More likely backorders and/or pre-orders being filled.

The computer would update the stock as each title is removed from stock, stuffed and mailed.

It would not surprise me in the slightest that Amazon could get a couple hundred out within hours.

Add to this the fact that Amazon has multiple, regional warehouses for fullfillment. Stock could be replenished at one site, then filled at that site moving the numbers by smaller increments of the whole, also...
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post #1731 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 09:26 PM
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of the 30 blu-ray titles i have bought from Amazon, 4 were shipped from some place other then Amazon. these 4 were separate from the other disks, so i think there is some on demand going on for slower sale titles.
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post #1732 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

So there is no incentive for Amazon to keep the arrival inventory data posted or correctly showw all inventory reductions. They may even summarize stuff in their input as long as teh end of the cycle number on han dis accurate for a consumer buying decision purpose.

I'm not so sure. It is obvious that the stock levels are done in s/w. Unless they apply a random weightage to each stock level - so as to not let people know about the actual stock level - the stock level shown should be the correct one.

Quote:
Also I do mot know if any its are drop shipped form seperate inventory systems.

This is possible - and most likely too.
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post #1733 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 10:33 PM
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I'm not so sure. It is obvious that the stock levels are done in s/w. Unless they apply a random weightage to each stock level - so as to not let people know about the actual stock level - the stock level shown should be the correct one.

Natarj, it could also be lots instead of titles.
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post #1734 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

What is the difference between census and sample?

I was offline for a while.

I see that Kosty explained the terms. The email that I received didn't have anything other than the attached documents that I already posted. We are even as far as information is concerned.

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post #1735 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 10:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

You do realize that not everything exists in cyberspace and can be linked. I already put a direct quote of what I was told in a previous post. Look back through if you missed it. Maybe someone wasn't doing their job and did send you a list, but I still find it hard to believe they would violate their confidentality agreement to a stranger off the street. I'll believe it when I see it.

However, Bookscan does mention Amazon.com as a partner, so it isn't a stretch that they would contribute to Videoscan too.

Well, believe it or not. That's your prerogative! You can try to email David yourself.

As Kosty said, these documents look more like marketing material than confidential documents. Anyway, I am not going to try to convince you one way or the other.

PS: I might have missed your quote about the contract. I will try to go over past few posts.

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post #1736 of 9375 Old 02-13-2007, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I got the original word documents you sent through Gmail.

Yep those are their marketing documents.

No breach of confidentiality. Very good job sir.

Yes, I tried again. Luckily, it went through fine.


I sent an email to the person that sent me the documents to clarify about the confidentiality of the documents. I don't want to put that person in trouble.

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post #1737 of 9375 Old 02-14-2007, 07:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I still find it hard to believe they would violate their confidentality agreement to a stranger off the street. I'll believe it when I see it.


So what do you think happened? Do you think Kdragon sat down and typed up that long list, neatly dividng the companies into sample and census groups?

Clearly not.

They made that list to market their services, and they sent it out upon request. It looks pretty simple to me, I'm not sure what there is for you to "believe it when I see it."
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post #1738 of 9375 Old 02-14-2007, 07:17 AM
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Now that we have the list - does anyone think it could represent only a third of the sales ? Apart from Wal*Mart (who are probably not that big a seller of hidef dvds) are there any other known majors missing ?

Otherwise we have to come back to the apparent discrepancy between 1.5M shipped figure given sometimeback and the 500K or so figure given by Videoscan.
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post #1739 of 9375 Old 02-14-2007, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Apart from Wal*Mart (who are probably not that big a seller of hidef dvds) are there any other known majors missing ?

I didn't see DVDempire on there, but I need to check again.
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post #1740 of 9375 Old 02-14-2007, 07:27 AM
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So while it might be slightly unethical wouldn't we gain lots of understanding regarding how the sales ranking works if someone ordered and then an hour later cancelled a 100 copies each of titles around say 50,200,500 and 1000 on the sales ranking. Watch what happens to stock and ranking. Should clear up a few things.
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