Blu-ray software surpasses HD DVD lifetime-to-date - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 239 Old 02-22-2007, 11:03 PM - Thread Starter
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http://www.videostoremag.com/news/ht...ticle_id=10323

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The scales tipped in favor of Blu-ray Disc the week ended Feb. 18, according to preliminary data.

...

“We see that the consumer is voting with their dollars with a clear preference for Blu-ray,” Chapek said. “This clear, objective measure shows the writing is on the wall.”

...

“Seeing HD DVD in our rear-view mirror is no surprise to us,” added David Bishop, worldwide home entertainment president, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment.

...

“As we noted at CES, the format war is in its final phase,” said Steven Feldstein, SVP of marketing communications at 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “It’s never been a question of if Blu-ray will pass HD DVD, but a matter of when.”

...

“We’re not in this for winning or losing,” said Steve Nickerson, SVP of market management for Warner Home Video. “Both formats are selling well on software.”

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post #2 of 239 Old 02-22-2007, 11:17 PM
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Wow, the war is in its final phase already. Isn't the market share for both formats still like 1%?
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post #3 of 239 Old 02-22-2007, 11:29 PM
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We're not in this for winning or losing, said Steve Nickerson, SVP of market management for Warner Home Video. Both formats are selling well on software.

Wow..amazing how the tone changes when you get to a neutral studio.
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post #4 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 12:02 AM
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Way too early to call...
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post #5 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azmodien View Post

Wow, the war is in its final phase already. Isn't the market share for both formats still like 1%?

No. Blu-ray's market share is 50.3% and growing and HD DVD's market share is 49.7% and shrinking.
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post #6 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 01:09 AM
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We are heading towards the end of February. If HD DVD supporters think this month was bad, I feel sorry for them in the month of March. After next week, according to release list on HDD, they will go a month without a release. In the meantime, Blu-ray will release such blockbusters as Mr & Mrs Smith, Casino Royale, Rocky Balboa, Chicken Little, The Pursuit of Happyness. The only title they are looking forward to is Children of Men ...which only grossed 34 mil. It will sell well though because there's not much else for them to buy in March.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #7 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 01:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyC View Post

No. Blu-ray's market share is 50.3% and growing and HD DVD's market share is 49.7% and shrinking.


Actually I believe that he is talking about general market share. DVD has 99%, Hi Def media 1% type of situation
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post #8 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 03:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wormraper View Post

Actually I believe that he is talking about general market share. DVD has 99%, Hi Def media 1% type of situation

Maybe HD has a tiny share for now, but Warner Bros. are forecasting total HD disc sales (both formats) for 2007 to be in excess of 1 billion US dollars. The recent Total HD launch also stated they expect 9 million HD disc playing devices to be in homes by the end of 2007.

The whole US home video market is currently approx. 25 billion dollars, so, if Warner are right, HD would have captured 4% of the whole home video market by the end of the year.

That would be pretty good going for HD in only 20 months and shows why the battle to be the victor in the Hi Def disc war is so important.
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post #9 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 04:29 AM
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it doesnt help how fast you go to 4%. The total HD market cant grow to much because not everybody has a HDready tv. And not all of them has interest in hd as they are in having a flat screens.

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post #10 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 04:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MovieSwede View Post

it doesnt help how fast you go to 4%. The total HD market cant grow to much because not everybody has a HDready tv. And not all of them has interest in hd as they are in having a flat screens.

Achieving 4% of the total USA home video market in 20 months is very good - period!

Now if you want to debate about HD TV ownership that's fine.

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According to Informa Telecoms and Media, the number of homes taking the product will jump to 151 million worldwide by 2011 from 48 million at the end of 2006 when an estimated 1.2 billion households had a television.

You can find the full article here:

http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/104263/h...rs-report.html

Globally that means that HD TV ownership is set to move from 4% now to around 13% by 2011. Obviously ownership in countries with established HD broadcasts will be much greater than 13% in 2011 - primarily USA, Europe & Japan. I believe the current figure in the USA is 10%, so there's plenty of headroom for the HD disc formats to grow into.

HD TV's are flat as well!
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post #11 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 05:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

We are heading towards the end of February. If HD DVD supporters think this month was bad, I feel sorry for them in the month of March. After next week, according to release list on HDD, they will go a month without a release. In the meantime, Blu-ray will release such blockbusters as Mr & Mrs Smith, Casino Royale, Rocky Balboa, Chicken Little, The Pursuit of Happyness. The only title they are looking forward to is Children of Men ...which only grossed 34 mil. It will sell well though because there's not much else for them to buy in March.

In fairness, HD-DVD is also getting The Good Shepherd, but it's still heavily lopsided in favor of BD.
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post #12 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 05:21 AM
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Perfect timing for this data, mere days before the Japan Verification Seminar for DVD and HD DVD on February 27, the 37th meeting of the Steering Committe of DVD Forum on February 28, and the DVD Forum 10th General Meeting on March 1 and 2.



(I might as well point it out before plazman does )

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post #13 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 05:31 AM
 
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Grubert, thanks for connecting the dots

You are the sharpest guy on this forum, in my books at least

Now when I watch Spartacus, I'm going to be thinking about Asterix!
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post #14 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 05:32 AM
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The gap will get larger and larger as each month goes by....

interested in both formats!
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post #15 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 05:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Wow..amazing how the tone changes when you get to a neutral studio.

It's not amazing at all; expected would be the word I would choose.
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post #16 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 06:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Perfect timing for this data, mere days before the Japan Verification Seminar for DVD and HD DVD on February 27, the 37th meeting of the Steering Committe of DVD Forum on February 28, and the DVD Forum 10th General Meeting on March 1 and 2.



(I might as well point it out before plazman does )


Not sure I see the relevance there. How does this supposed sales info affect these seminars? If true, these sales figures are obviously mere coincidence with their timing, aren't they? Are you somehow saying that this data will get the HD-DVD folks off their asses with software?
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post #17 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 06:23 AM
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There is also a quote from Universal. In the interest of giving a balanced quoting of the article, this is what they said.

Quote:
Ken Graffeo, the executive in charge of the HD DVD effort for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said, Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren't Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.

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post #18 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 06:28 AM
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"Blu-ray software surpasses HD DVD lifetime-to-date"

Another signpost. What numeric HD DVD superlatives are there left?
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post #19 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 06:31 AM
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How many times do they get to announce this?

Universal sure didn't sound like they were about to switch sides though.
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post #20 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 06:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

Not sure I see the relevance there. How does this supposed sales info affect these seminars?

The verification seminar would be unaffected, true.

But the General Meeting is the yearly event where the DVD companies take stock of the year and talk on future strategies. And HD DVD is a prominent part of the agenda (it is the "Special Feature" on day one of the GM) so this announcement might dampen the enthusiasm on the part of Toshiba and Microsoft (I honestly don't know which direction NEC is leaning now).


Quote:


If true, these sales figures are obviously mere coincidence with their timing, aren't they?

Certainly. But this weekend we are still waiting for the data for the week ending on Feb. 11. If they had kept their schedule, they would have published the data for the week ending on Feb. 18 on their issue of March 4-10, 2007, that is, after all those meetings were held.


Quote:


Are you somehow saying that this data will get the HD-DVD folks off their asses with software?

Well it damn should. They're not going to win this war with a $5 Steve Martin oldie and a near-direct-to-video exploitation remake.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #21 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:01 AM
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Quote:


Ken Graffeo, the executive in charge of the HD DVD effort for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said, Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren't Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

Why?

(a) Because attach rate for PS3 owners is not the same as attach rate for standalone owners. Discussed ad nauseam.

(b) Because, even if BD were actually outselling HD DVD by 5:1 for all of 2007 so far, considering that HD DVD had been substantially outselling BD for most of last year. since-inception sales of BD would be less than five times since-inception sales of HD DVD anyway.

I'd like those Graffeo, Bishop, Chapek, Feldstein, Nickerson blokes to post that stuff here. See what happens to them.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #22 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:06 AM
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YAY! Blu-Ray won the format war!... again... for the 7th time this month!


Stay tuned for a weekly BDA press release entitled "We Won So Stop Buying Those Damned HD-DVDs Already!"


In similar news:

BR top ten titles inched 0.0002% higher yesterday! Blu-Ray Won! YAY!

PS3 Blu-Tooth Remote outselling Maytag Dishwashers by 3.7%! Blu-Ray Won! YAY!

BR standalone sales increased from 24.8% to 24.9% compared to HD-DVD standalones! Blu-Ray Won! YAY!

BR has a pretty blue case! Blu-Ray Won! YAY!


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post #23 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:27 AM
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Thanks to heavyharmonies, it looks like AVS has finally reached the point that more HD DVD supporters are claiming that people have said "Blu-ray won" than actual Blu-ray supporters have.

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post #24 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:43 AM
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The fact is that in just under 3 months, the PS3 has managed to obliterate the volume advantage accrued by HD DVD over BD in 7 months.

That is pretty significant.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #25 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:50 AM
 
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There is no doubt that is you want to back the format that is going to sell the most, it is definitely BD. At leastas far down the road that I can see. But it's equally clear that DVD sales have rebounded and upcomverting may be a reason, as well as new disks being authored better. Anyone seen Cars or PoTC upconverted on a 50 inch screen?

Both HD formats are niche now and will be as far down as I can see. Unless prices come down to where people buy into the value. This has nothing to do with 2 formats confusing people. DVD is cheap and looks good on a 50 inch screen and is ubiquitious.

The success of the Wii has gotten me rethinking how much people care about just PQ and AQ v. other factors....including price.
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post #26 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 07:59 AM
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I am with plazman, some DVD's can look amazing on a50" screen, especially considering most real room viewing distances. As for the wii, it blows away the PS3 in the only real meaningful way, FUN... I was finally able to get one two weeks ago and my kids love it more than any other gaming device. Even my wife loves it and she has never played a game before. Kids with PS3's on HD screens want to come play it on an old 27" Panasonic tube! IT is the fun factor moreso than price, although price is a factor.
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post #27 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 08:08 AM
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Quote:


The fact is that in just under 3 months, the PS3 has managed to obliterate the volume advantage accrued by HD DVD over BD in 7 months.

That is pretty significant.

It's only significant as a talking point. Sure, I personally would rather that HD DVD was ahead of Blu-ray, but if the last few months have taught us anything it's that because overall volumes are so low, the direction of the format war can change on a dime. So today Blu-ray has the bravado. Tomorrow may be different. There are many unknowns and there are many surprises. As of right now, the list of unknowns that can drastically affect the war in HD DVD's favor include.

. Cheaper HD DVD players coming later this year
. Universal's release schedule, or a possible change in direction
. Fox's suspension of a number of titles
. The affect of the hackings
. BD-J problems, edge crackings, and other possible new technology issues
. The continuing and accumulated affect of the massive subsidizations. Whereas HD DVD is most likely operating comfortably in the black, Blu-ray is probably well into the red, operating a business model that demands they lose substantial money in order to gain market share.

IMHO, there are a lot of unknowns, and if you apply some insight into what is happening, then both sides would see scenarios where the bottom can fall out. The braggodocio might be fun because it's always fun to be winning, but just because you are winning does not at all mean that you have won anything, and history is replete with examples of entites who were supposedly winning ending up losing, and sometimes very badly. So you can jump up and down, and high five, and head butt each other, but the smart thing to do is to keep the champagne on ice and the cigars in the box until there is actually a winner.
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post #28 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 08:20 AM
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I rermember when all the BD supporters said, "you just wait until the PS3 arrives", and "you just wait until Fox and Disney start releasing titles". They were right! Here's my prediction - HD DVD isn't dead by a long shot. Universal will release some great must have titles and cheap HD DVD players will flood the market. Many, and I do mean many, BD owners will then quietly buy a HD DVd player and then start buying the Universal titles they want and even some Warner HD DVD titles that are on HD DVD before BD. A stalemate is inevitable - BD may end up with a larger share of the market like the PC sold more units than Apple or gasoline cars outsell diesel, but they still co-exist and have a place.

The people that run the HD DVD supporting companies knew that HD DVD wouldn't hold any leads for long - PS3 and studio support made this inevitable so why are so many here taken aback? BD has a plan and it didn't give up after a poor launch so why many here expect (maybe just wishful thinking) that HD DVD will is beyond me. My plan, if I were running things for HD DVD would be to win BD owners over to HD DVD (make them format neutral) with great titles (which HD DVD has) and inexpensive players and media. Do I think I could do it? Absolutely - and this is going to happen! We will see more and more BD supporters on the HD DVD media section discussing the latest HD DVD exclusive release. Why? Because they just ordered it!

Cheers,

Grant
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post #29 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post


- And I don't know about HD DVD being in a better financial position. Blu-ray CE manufacturers earn huge profits with their player sales compared to none for Toshiba. Disc pressing costs seam very similar between the two.

Well 90% of the Bluray players make a huge loss per every unit. Sure The other 10% maybe makes money but not so many buys thoose players.

And as for discpressing. Isnt it so that the large companys get a rebate on discpressing. Sure Fox should be making money with their 40$ discs.

Good movies are as rare as an on topic discussion.
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post #30 of 239 Old 02-23-2007, 08:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

There is no doubt that is you want to back the format that is going to sell the most, it is definitely BD. At leastas far down the road that I can see.

Plazman,
I typically only skim over your posts now after reading much of the nonsense you've posted on this topic and economic principals in general. But I have to say, while your typical illogical HD-DVD cheerleading is often comical at best, I actually agree with you for once this week (regarding your statement above)... Having said that, you're going to remain off my "ignore" list for one more week. Congratulations!
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