Originally Posted by xbdestroya
Plazman, what does this post of yours have to do with supporting RD's position that HD DVD 'continues to gain ground' on content sales? You're trying to give an answer to a question I never asked. In fact, let's just agree that it has stabilized, and that contrary to your intent to aid RD in his position, you nevertheless concede implicitly that indeed, there is little headway being made by HD DVD media sales at the moment.
Ah! Your problem is much more basic
1. You understand the concept of market share? It basically says of the total HD market what % is controlled by BD v. HD DVD. Simple right?
2. Now when looking at market share, you can look at historical data such as SI or current data (what is happening right now and if there is a trend). Business decisions are based on current and future market share. History is history. It is irrelevant to the decision making process. Now, why is that?
3. It's because when a studio sells a product what they want to know is what is their potential market size for this product and the size of the market size they are missing (what am I leaving on the table). So, you can see that market share quickly translates into how much $ can I make and how much $ I could make...
4. In Q1 we had a trend where week after week BD's market share continued to increase v. HD DVD which continued to fall. The question at this point was to find out at what % we would end up with an equilibrium. For example, Mac ended up with a 5% or so market share and they have kept that share since them. So, 5% would be their equilibrium share in the PC OS market.
5. At the end of Q1 it was widely reported that BD was enjoying a 4:1 to 2:1 sales ratio advantage. However, since then we have seen a turnaround. We now have a sales ratio that is between 1.5 and 2.0:1. The only week where the ratio went byond 2:1 there were extraordinary circumstances as explained by me. So, the fact is that HD DVD has gained on BD since we went from 4:1 to 2:1 sales ratio to 1.5 to 2:1. And finally...
6. So far we have only talked about one part of the equation, how much money can I make by supporting one format. The second part is, how much money am I leaving on the table. For this, the only true data point is sales of the same title on both formats. So, if we look at Warner and Paramount we can figure out what the ratio in terms of $ terms is for a title that gets released on both formats. For this we know that all neutral titles sold since the end of March have sold about the same for both formats. So, studios by being exclusive are leaving 40-50% of the HD revenue on the table. Does this make sense?
7. As long as the $$ value is small, studios won't care, but once it gets large, they cannot ignore it...
Now what about Blockbuster?
Doesn't it seem odd that Blockbuster would leave between 30-40% of the HD market on the table - basically lose these customers to their competitors. When Blockbuster desperately needs to do better and gain customers?
The question is not whether BD is ahead of HD DVD or whatever, it's whether it makes sense for Blockbuster to take sides? To me Blockbuster reeks of poor management decisions and if a reason is needed for why they are struggling - it is right there!