Well, after thinking about it for most of the day (with taking time out for eating, of course!), I decided to cancel my Crutchfield order for a Toshiba HD-A2 ($199). But I have no intention of buying a Blu-Ray player, or any other type of HD player, for a while. Several reasons:
1. I don't feel like swaying with the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD wind every other week.
2. I'm not convinced Blockbuster made a shrewd business decision; on the other hand, too many people will walk into Blockbuster and see Blu Ray only.
3. I think the price of Toshiba HD-DVD players will continue to drop; it's the only way they can stay competitive. That $199 is going to look expensive in a few months, I think.
4. My Panasonic S97 is a perfectly acceptable machine until these HD wars settle down.
5. $400 is too much to spend on a DVD player, even if it's Blu-Ray. $200 is my limit. I'm guessing $125 or so is the limit for most people.
I think what will happen as a result of today is that people are going to stop buying HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players for a while. People who read this story won't buy an HD-DVD player because they'll be afraid of buying a dead format. But then they'll start researching Blu-Ray players, see that they cost $400 and decide, "I'll stick with what I have." I'm guessing that for a while, the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray format war is unofficially stagnant.