Nielsen VideoScan sales ratios & top sellers part 3 - Page 222 - AVS Forum
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post #6631 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 10:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTYoung View Post

I think the most likely case is that the 130k number is the combined sales of S3 from the single disc sales and the box set. If we take those numbers we end up with numbers like this.

1. Spiderman 3 ~75500
2. Spiderman Trilogy ~54500
3. Transformers ~23700

etc...

+1

Much more plausible IMO.
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post #6632 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 10:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamus View Post

actually its 2.4482758:1

Well, actually . . . 2.4482758620689655172413793103448:1

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post #6633 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmack View Post

Well, actually . . . 2.4482758620689655172413793103448:1


You must have a better calculator!!!
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post #6634 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamus View Post

Actually, the HD-DVD sale had to have some effect, or that ratio would of been a lot higher...

Since most of those players were sold at Wal*mart, who was also having several HD DVDs on sale for $14 each at the time, most of the effects of the sale will be unaccounted for.

Thus the numbers posted by Nielsen are too inaccurate for the week in question to be a reliable indicator of the true overall sales ratios.

It'll make a nice talking point for the BDA but as far as being factual data for the market overall, it is just form with no substance.

And since these numbers will effect YTD and SI values as well, to a far lesser degree those numbers become less accurate as well.
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post #6635 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

The numbers were through November 4, so unless I missed something, these figures include the entirety of the sale(s).

The Wal-Mart sale started Friday, and I doubt too many people bought a player and then ran to a store that is included in the Neilsen's to buy SW.

Also, I bet many of those players are for presents or 2nd players.

As for the sales at BB and CC, most of those were on-line and I have no clue when a sale gets counted. Is it at the exact time of purchase or when the item is actually shipped? I know they do not charge you until about the time an item ships.

I must say I fell for the hype and only thought BD would reach 68%. This of course makes no sense since the week of F4 RotSS was over 70% too.
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post #6636 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:09 AM
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Do you think these kind of numbers will keep Sony Pictures from going neutral?

"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty!" - Captain Malcolm Reynolds
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post #6637 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalcm View Post

71:29
That's Earth Shaking!

I'm kinda surprised that the reactions are so even tempered.
That's an incredible ratio at this stage of the game.
Now next week with Ratatouille and Cars and whatever else will probably be another blowout week for Blu.

That's like an old Nebraska football score. A true thrashing.

Reported under the new rules as an "X is winning" type post.
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post #6638 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:11 AM
 
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The sales were at Best Buy (#1 HDM seller), Circuit City, Sears, Fry's and other location as well aside from Walmart.
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post #6639 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalcm View Post

71:29
That's Earth Shaking!

I'm kinda surprised that the reactions are so even tempered.
That's an incredible ratio at this stage of the game.
Now next week with Ratatouille and Cars and whatever else will probably be another blowout week for Blu.

That's like an old Nebraska football score. A true thrashing.

If an "old Nebraska football score" was calculated by ignoring several TDs by certain players from the opposing side, then yes, this would be just like that then.

The reason most people aren't reacting to these numbers is because they are basically inaccurate with unfortunately no real way to "fix" them.

While ignoring Wal*mart sales on an average week can be tolerated, ignoring them during what has to be one of the biggest HD sales events of the year cannot.

However, since Wal*mart is withholding their data we can only speculate as to what the "correct" ratios are this week and to a lesser degree for YTD and SI numbers.

If Wal*mart sales return to their previous "flat" levels then the Nielsen numbers may again have value but if WM starts to become serious about HD media then as their sales increase, the Nielsen numbers will become more of a curiosity than a valid point of reference.

Time will tell.
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post #6640 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

Great-so now we have exactly what Sony wanted-confusion and uncertainty about the numbers.

I'm not confused. Why should you be? FWIW, I never take any PR release, especially on something about money at face value.

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post #6641 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:20 AM
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Question about the affect of about 100K HD-DVD standalone sales last week on media sales:

The big HD-DVD sale last week increased the HD-DVD installed base of standalones by about 25% or so, right? Or if you include the 360 add-on installed base, the increase was maybe 15-20%? Is that what people understand?

If so, then if we were to assume they all went into new households and the attachment rates for these new machines would stay the same as the existing installed base (for simplicity), what affect would we really expect this to have on the Nielsen's going forward?

It's hard for me to imagine much more than maybe a 5% swing in marketshare from BD to HD-DVD but given that there are so many other dynamics such as renewed interest in PS3s, that I am having a hard time seeing a big change going forward on titles released on both formats. What am I missing?

I guess the next major dual-release title should be telling...
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post #6642 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:32 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

I guess the next major dual-release title should be telling...

License to Wed was 1.56:1

Next reported week is The Aviator

And week after is a big one: Oceans 13 and the Oceans boxset.

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post #6643 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamus View Post

You must have a better calculator!!!

Yes! What a wonderful modern age we live in!
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post #6644 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:50 AM
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Does Nielsen Data count Canada Sales?
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post #6645 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

Question about the affect of about 100K HD-DVD standalone sales last week on media sales:

The big HD-DVD sale last week increased the HD-DVD installed base of standalones by about 25% or so, right? Or if you include the 360 add-on installed base, the increase was maybe 15-20%? Is that what people understand?

If so, then if we were to assume they all went into new households and the attachment rates for these new machines would stay the same as the existing installed base (for simplicity), what affect would we really expect this to have on the Nielsen's going forward?

It's hard for me to imagine much more than maybe a 5% swing in marketshare from BD to HD-DVD but given that there are so many other dynamics such as renewed interest in PS3s, that I am having a hard time seeing a big change going forward on titles released on both formats. What am I missing?

I guess the next major dual-release title should be telling...

I think there are too many variables to say with any certainty, but here are some other possible scenarios that may be worth considering that may (or may not) impact the effect big HD-DVD sale last week.

1. Sold for Christmas presents so won’t begin to have an impact until after the holidays.
2. Purchased as a second player for existing households resulting as no additional software sales.
3. Sold to people that got in to HD due to the very low price of the player that don’t have much disposable income, thus increasing rentals, but not impacting overall sales significantly.

TETTIMO

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post #6646 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

License to Wed was 1.56:1

Next reported week is The Aviator

And week after is a big one: Oceans 13 and the Oceans boxset.

I would definately look at Oceans 13 and Harry Potter 5 before I looked at License to Wed. I'm not buying that movie.

I would be interested in the numbers (overall of course) for Harry Potter. And I am not even sure I want to look at the box set, because that is more a luxury buy and double dip, which I'm also not doing. I want to see single sku for the 5th movie.


BTW, nice to see it didn't take long for things to get back to normal here. :/
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post #6647 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by space2001 View Post

the 130,000 is for spidey 3 only

I don't think we'll ever know if that number is accurate and if it was for the standalone disc or included the box set.

Format Neutral
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post #6648 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:08 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vurbano View Post

Reported under the new rules as an "X is winning" type post.

are you kidding? the new rules say you can discuss "the number of format titles sold...if tracked by a disinterested third party like nielson". someone above hypothesized on how many spidey disks were sold, i could report that as violating the "posting of info that cannot be verified" rule. are we engaging in selective enforcement here?
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post #6649 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:09 PM
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The bottom line is that Nielsen is the best we have and, in all probability, it is pretty accurate. And, since it is gathered consistently, it is good for trends.

The point that people seem to be ignoring is that there is no good reason to believe that the sales ratio at Wal-Mart is all that different than anywhere else. There are surely bumps due to BOGO sales or hardware sales that may be unique to Wal-Mart, but that is true of all retailers. To make much of a difference in the numbers, the ratios would have to be very different than the overall Nielsen numbers. That's the only way the math works out.

And, of course, given the limited selection of discs at Wal-Mart (at least currently) if people want to buy more than a handful of titles, they need to go to Best Buy or Amazon, etc. The Nielsen numbers will ultimately capture the impact of the Wal-Mart Toshiba sale (and the new 40 GB PS3 and whatever else develops).
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post #6650 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAC6 View Post

The bottom line is that Nielsen is the best we have and, in all probability, it is pretty accurate. And, since it is gathered consistently, it is good for trends.

The point that people seem to be ignoring is that there is no good reason to believe that the sales ratio at Wal-Mart is all that different than anywhere else. There are surely bumps due to BOGO sales or hardware sales that may be unique to Wal-Mart, but that is true of all retailers. To make much of a difference in the numbers, the ratios would have to be very different than the overall Nielsen numbers. That's the only way the math works out.
And, of course, given the limited selection of discs at Wal-Mart (at least currently) if people want to buy more than a handful of titles, they need to go to Best Buy or Amazon, etc. The Nielsen numbers will ultimately capture the impact of the Wal-Mart Toshiba sale (and the new 40 GB PS3 and whatever else develops).

Agreed; and this was likely the case for this reporting period -- Wal-mart numbers being very different than the Nielsen numbers. That said, I figure it'd just be an anomoly anyways -- like the every 4th week BD sales pop.
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post #6651 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:21 PM
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Somebody posted theoretical numbers of 74K discs moved for HD-DVD. That would mean HD-DVD sold more players than discs. Call me skeptical but I think the Walmart number is really a big chunk that is missing in the lastest numbers. Even if you assume 1 disc per player that closes the gap big time.

/shrug
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post #6652 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAC6 View Post

The point that people seem to be ignoring is that there is no good reason to believe that the sales ratio at Wal-Mart is all that different than anywhere else.

This is actually completely flawed assumption. Several things. It is very obvious that Walmart is pushing HD DVD more. In my local supercenter walmart there was no sign of Blu-Ray anymore, only HD DVD software and HD DVD players. The only Blu-Ray product was PS3 in the gaming department and Ratatouille BD because Disney paid a huge stand with all versions of the movie (DVD WS/FS, BD and 2 disc DVD).

Here and keep in mind this store opened up only a few days ago - brand spanking new:





It is interesting to see that news stores have this availabilty. This might actually mean they will be cutting down the Blu-Ray offerings in Walmarts except PS3 as of course a game console.

WIth this in mind, of course that numbers would look completely different if Walmart was included. You don't think that about 60k owners who picked up a $99 HD DVD player didn't buy at least a few $15 movies? Let's be a bit real here.

These numbers don't mean anything anymore. Walmart with thousands of stores standing behind HD DVD will most definitely have an affect on the format war and you will not see these numbers in Neilsen reports until Best Buy and others REALLY start competing with Walmart with price cuts.

And 130k units for a week from both S3 and Trilogy? Talk about weak and underexpected sales.
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post #6653 of 6653 Old 11-09-2007, 12:40 PM
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I think we've had enough of reported posts in this thread.

Closed until further notice.

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