Originally Posted by Steverhcp02
Ps3 would be lucky with 9 million and Toshiba would be lucky with 500,000 by january, imo.
Never going to happen.
Sony has revised down their numbers are 5 times. So to answer the OP I would say "NO" Sony hasn't learned their lesson and/or they have no grasp of reality.
First let's look at the possibility of selling 10 million units:
1) Sony has sold about 3.7 million units. The 5.5 million unit comes from units shipped not sold. While it is not unusual for CE companies to report units shipped in this case the units on the shelves are not helping the format war. The PS3 has been on the market for 36 weeks so it has averaged about 100K units per week (however recently it has been much worse - about 20K).
2) As a result of the their overcapacity (and lack of demand) they have about 2 million 60GB that will be sold @ $499. Sony has confirmed the 60GB stopped production when price cut was announce. After the 60GB has sold out it the only PS3 sku will be the $599 80GB.
3) Let's say the 60GB increases demand 10x from the current lows and Sony sells 200K units per week (not the Wii is only selling about 200K weekly). Sony would exhaust the remaining supply of 60GB units in about 10 weeks. (2 million units sold).
4) We have 24 weeks left in qtr. Let's say 2 million 60GB units sold plus another 300K 80GB unit sold in next 10 weeks so that would be about 6 million units sold with 14 weeks left to go. 4 million units / 14 weeks = 286K weekly.
For the last 14 weeks of the year Sony would need to sell the $600 80GB units faster than
1) Their own launch
2) Average Wii sales
3) Faster than they sold the 60GB sales priced units
I think under the most optimistic scenario the PS3 will sell (not ship) about 8 million units by 01 JAN 2008. A more realistic window would be 6-7million units. 10 million is simply not possible at point. We haven't even considered the competitor response. If Sony begins to sell 200K+ units weekly Microsoft will cut the price on xbox. A price cut of the 360 down to $199/$299 would make it a more J6P type purchase this holidays. The Will has a build cost of about $150 so that's $100 PROFIT per console sold. The only reason they haven't cut the price. It sells out every week. Why cut the price. If sales lag Nintendo can go to $199 or even $149 and break even on the console. Even if they did something insane like $99 they would lose less per console than Sony.
So this fall
$599 80GB PS3 (60GB sold out).
$299 360 premium
$199 360 core
$199 Wii (or $249 if it continues to sell out, $149 is it doesn't sell)
How many parents are going to get the PS3 with one game $660+ when stores would rather be pushing a 360 or Wii core + 3 games for $480. Stores make essentially nothing after overhead on consoles. They get a nice cut on games. While a Wii or 360 + 3 games may ring up less $$$ then a PS3 with nothing it will results in much higher profit margins.I am 100% positive that Sony will not sell 10 million units by 01 JAN 2007.