E3 Sony: 11 million PS3s by end of year ~ what does that mean for war/HD media? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 03:52 PM - Thread Starter
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I hadn't really seen this discussed and thought that since the PS3 has proven to be a quite legit and effectively "in the war" BD player, that it was interesting/relevant.

Did you see where at E3 Sony has, as of July 11, gone through their analysis and made a revised prediction for total PS3 sales worldwide by the end of year? Their prediction: 11 million sold worldwide.

Don't forget too that the HD DVD group recently revised their prediction that so that, even under the best circumstances, they would only be selling 1.1 million players this year (in the US?...even if so...still!).

So even if Sony's 11 million sold worldwide figure is even half true - wouldn't that effectively mean it is "good night and good luck" to HD DVD? And if it turns out to be competely true, shouldn't we expect every HD DVD CE/studio supporter to flock to BD like locust come CES '08?

I know Sony has made lofty sales predictions for PS3 sales in the past - but can't we assume that given their past public mistakes in doing so - that they will have tempered this particular prediction to ensure it's accuracy?

What do you think?
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post #2 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma View Post

I hadn't really seen this discussed and thought that since the PS3 has proven to be a quite legit and effectively "in the war" BD player, that it was interesting/relevant.

Did you see where at E3 Sony has, as of July 11, gone through their analysis and made a revised prediction for total PS3 sales worldwide by the end of year? Their prediction: 11 million sold worldwide.

Don't forget too that the HD DVD group recently revised their prediction that so that, even under the best circumstances, they would only be selling 1.1 million players this year (in the US?...even if so...still!).

So even if Sony's 11 million sold worldwide figure is even half true - wouldn't that effectively mean it is "good night and good luck" to HD DVD? And if it turns out to be competely true, shouldn't we expect every HD DVD CE/studio supporter to flock to BD like locust come CES '08?

I know Sony has made lofty sales predictions for PS3 sales in the past - but can't we assume that given their past public mistakes in doing so - that they will have tempered this particular prediction to ensure it's accuracy?

What do you think?

That volume, given the poor attach rate, should make things about even for another 6 months.
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post #3 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:01 PM
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I think they are over ambitious by quite some margin. Nintendo to this point has only sold 6 million or so worldwide, and that has been considered a complete smash success. At 499, and soon to move back to 599, it's not going to move nearly as fast. This is also considering the negative view that has been placed upon the PS3 in general.

11 Million by the end of 2007 is an impossibility in my eyes, it probably isn't even possible for the end of fiscal year 2007 also.
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post #4 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:03 PM
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11 million by the end of the year? I seriously doubt it. PS3 will stay in 3rd place among the consoles for some time to come.

Format Neutral
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post #5 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

That volume, given the poor attach rate, should make things about even for another 6 months.

Exactly

11 million X 10 percent attach rate (if that) = 1.1 million = Status quo
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post #6 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaivo View Post

I think they are over ambitious by quite some margin. Nintendo to this point has only sold 6 million or so worldwide, and that has been considered a complete smash success. At 499, and soon to move back to 599, it's not going to move nearly as fast. This is also considering the negative view that has been placed upon the PS3 in general.

11 Million by the end of 2007 is an impossibility in my eyes, it probably isn't even possible for the end of fiscal year 2007 also.


I think your 'negative view' is probably AVS biased.

Every gamer I know of wants a PS3 after the E3 demos. Granted they will be waiting till those games hit market, but they will be getting one. I think E3 changed a lot of opinions this year.

Abysmal attach rates or not, they'll sell for games. Which is what they should be selling for.

59 Blu-rays and counting...
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post #7 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:20 PM
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11 million consoles sitting in warehouses and collecting dust sitting on store shelves. THis is not the first made up number Sony has pushed.

HD-DVD: 115 Blu: 6
Latest HD-DVD: All of them at Frys for under $10.

Latest BD: No incentive to pick up discs now that the format war is over. Netflix via xbox and mail is more that sufficient.
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post #8 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:21 PM
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It's Sony. It's all talk. I think they will be lucky to sell half of that. I am sure by now a lot of the $500 60gig units are almost out of stock and with the new system going to cost $600 why would anyone buy one?

You can get a blu-ray player for cheaper now and you can get a 360 for less to play games on.
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post #9 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:24 PM
 
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Update: PS3 hits 1 million sold milestone in Japan

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/10421.cfm

There is a thread that claims over 5 million sold but that is more Sony FUD - it is over 5 million SHIPPED with about 2 million in warehouses that they hope to clear out with the $100 price cut.

Sure - they can ship 11 million PS3's total for 2007 - but in consumers hands? Not unless they are willing to price it at $299
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post #10 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

That volume, given the poor attach rate, should make things about even for another 6 months.

I guess when you say "make things about even for another 6 months", you mean HD-DVD will continue to lag 2:1 in media sales?
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post #11 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Update: PS3 hits 1 million sold milestone in Japan

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/10421.cfm

There is a thread that claims over 5 million sold but that is more Sony FUD - it is over 5 million SHIPPED with about 2 million in warehouses that they hope to clear out with the $100 price cut.

Sure - they can ship 11 million PS3's total for 2007 - but in consumers hands? Not unless they are willing to price it at $299

Units shipped is the standard metric for all game consoles.

It was something like 4 - 5 months between Microsoft's announcement about hitting the 10 million 360 target and when they actually managed to sell them.

Format Apathetic
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post #12 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian1212 View Post

I guess when you say "make things about even for another 6 months", you mean HD-DVD will continue to lag 2:1 in media sales?

Toshiba has the price point HD player at $399, I would expect HD sales to rise steadily..

200 +++ BD discs and counting...still enjoying 60+ HD-DVD's too!!
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post #13 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian1212 View Post

I guess when you say "make things about even for another 6 months", you mean HD-DVD will continue to lag 2:1 in media sales?

If they are absolutely incredibly lucky.
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post #14 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaivo View Post

I think they are over ambitious by quite some margin. Nintendo to this point has only sold 6 million or so worldwide, and that has been considered a complete smash success. At 499, and soon to move back to 599, it's not going to move nearly as fast. This is also considering the negative view that has been placed upon the PS3 in general.

11 Million by the end of 2007 is an impossibility in my eyes, it probably isn't even possible for the end of fiscal year 2007 also.

Have you checked the figures recently? The Wii is at 9.19M, the 360 is at 10.13M and the PS3 3.76M (Source VGChartz). So the Wii is only 1M behind the 360, in 2-3 months it'll surpass the 360. Especially with the media drubbing of the 360 hardware failures in the press recently and the Wii showing no signs of letting up, where there are still some place which it is hard to find stock.

As far the PS3 is concerned, due to them easily having the best showing at E3, they're going to have alot of big exclusives out by the end of the year. I'd put money them definitely reaching 10M by the end of this year, 11M by the end of the fiscal year no problem. Look at the growth charts for other consoles just before the end of their first year
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post #15 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HB GAMER View Post

11 million consoles sitting in whorehouses and collecting dust sitting on store shelves....

I'd like to know where the whorehouses with all the PS3s are. Is that part of the price? Do you have to negotiate for PS3 time seperately? Do the... uh, employees... play PS3 between 'dates'?

Sony could be on to something brilliant here!
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post #16 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:02 PM
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The PS3 honestly has been lacking in "great" titles. The recently released Ninja Gaiden Sigma is the first game I was excited to pick up. With games like Metal Gear Solid 4 and Disgaea 3 on the horizon, I expect plenty of gamers will actually have a reason to pick up PS3s this holiday season.
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post #17 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by morgan1112 View Post

I'd like to know where the whorehouses with all the PS3s are. Is that part of the price? Do you have to negotiate for PS3 time seperately? Do the... uh, employees... play PS3 between 'dates'?

Sony could be on to something brilliant here!

Big finish?
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post #18 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

That volume, given the poor attach rate, should make things about even for another 6 months.

Waht poor attach rate? Are you talking about the US, or do you have some indications for elsewhere you are talking about? And are you claiming that the attach rates are poor currently, or that they will be? I see you that you voted 4 to 9% for the PS3 next year compared to standalones. Do you think it is low like that now in the US or North America?

For anybody who does think it is that low (and not more like 20% or higher), I would like to see an explanation for HD DVD losing recent weeks close to 2:1 for software sales when there are probably about 1.6 million PS3s and however many Blu-ray standalones there are against probably 340k or more HD DVD standalones plus XBOX360s with add-ons. For Blu-ray standalones I figure it is probably between 110k and 150k in the US or NA (sometimes it is hard to know what the numbers are for). Even if it was 150k and the PS3 was effectively 20%, that would give Blu-ray 470k effective vs 340k+ (if we count the XBOX360 add-ons as whole). That is a ratio of 1.38:1, but HD DVD has been losing recent weeks for software sales by more than that, even that week where the new releases were way in their favor.

Amiable-Akuma,

A couple of things to be careful of. Sony often refers to how many they will ship or sell to distributors or stores and not how many consumers will buy. Also, they also use their fiscal year (ending at the end of March I believe) many times, depending on context. I haven't looked at the context for this one, but just things to look out for in general.

--Darin

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post #19 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:28 PM
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So this approximately doubles the number of PS3's sold (and essentially Blu-ray players overall) from today (relying on another thread which claims 5.62 million as of today)

Toshiba has predicted going from about 150K today to 1 million at the end of the year (and I have no idea what the 360 drive is supposed to do).

BD players double, HD DVD players go up 6+ times. It seems to me there is going to be a real horse race going on at the end of year and HD DVD has a realistic chance of taking back the sofware lead where they are currently trailing about 1.5 or 2 to 1.
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post #20 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnu View Post

So this approximately doubles the number of PS3's sold (and essentially Blu-ray players overall) from today (relying on another thread which claims 5.62 million as of today)

If that is shipped and not sold to consumers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnu View Post

Toshiba has predicted going from about 150K today to 1 million at the end of the year (and I have no idea what the 360 drive is supposed to do).

I'm not sure if that 1 million included the XBOX360 add-on or not (Toshiba has been making it). I put some numbers in another thread, but it looks like including the add-on HD DVD has been selling hardware at about 60% of the pace of DVD. That would put them around 840k total by the end of 2007. Maybe they will turn it around and all of a sudden start selling hardware as fast or faster than DVD did, but so far I haven't seen signs of that even with the price drop on the A2.

With the add-on I believe things are in the 340k-370k range or so for HD DVD now in NA. Blu-ray is more like 1.6 million PS3s and maybe 110k-150k standalones (I'm not sure how well they've sold the last month or so).

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post #21 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 05:54 PM
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Ps3 would be lucky with 9 million and Toshiba would be lucky with 500,000 by january, imo.
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post #22 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverhcp02 View Post

Ps3 would be lucky with 9 million and Toshiba would be lucky with 500,000 by january, imo.

3 million in the US will be a miracle at this point.
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post #23 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian1212 View Post

I guess when you say "make things about even for another 6 months", you mean HD-DVD will continue to lag 2:1 in media sales?

If they do sell 11 million and BR still only has a 2:1 lead then thats NOT a good thing for BR..

I dont see them selling 11 million worldwide but you never know
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post #24 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:15 PM
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Also everyone is saying that once the good games start coming out then PS3's will sell. Thats fine and all but how will that help BR disc sales if people are buying the good games and playing them? They sure wont be buying BR movies to watch. To busy gaming
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post #25 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

3 million in the US will be a miracle at this point.

Seriously? They are around 1.6 million now from what I've seen (although that might be North America) and game systems tend to be pretty loaded for sales in November and December. There are over 5 months left in the year. The following would get them to 3 million if it is 1.6 million now and not even counting the rest of July:

August: 150k
September: 150k
October: 200k
November: 400k
December: 500k

The XBOX360 sold about 1.1 million last December by NPD count and the PS2 sold about 1.4 million (the PS3 was about 490k).

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post #26 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Waht poor attach rate? Are you talking about the US, or do you have some indications for elsewhere you are talking about? And are you claiming that the attach rates are poor currently, or that they will be? I see you that you voted 4 to 9% for the PS3 next year compared to standalones. Do you think it is low like that now in the US or North America?

For anybody who does think it is that low (and not more like 20% or higher), I would like to see an explanation for HD DVD losing recent weeks close to 2:1 for software sales when there are probably about 1.6 million PS3s and however many Blu-ray standalones there are against probably 340k or more HD DVD standalones plus XBOX360s with add-ons. For Blu-ray standalones I figure it is probably between 110k and 150k in the US or NA (sometimes it is hard to know what the numbers are for). Even if it was 150k and the PS3 was effectively 20%, that would give Blu-ray 470k effective vs 340k+ (if we count the XBOX360 add-ons as whole). That is a ratio of 1.38:1, but HD DVD has been losing recent weeks for software sales by more than that, even that week where the new releases were way in their favor.

Amiable-Akuma,

A couple of things to be careful of. Sony often refers to how many they will ship or sell to distributors or stores and not how many consumers will buy. Also, they also use their fiscal year (ending at the end of March I believe) many times, depending on context. I haven't looked at the context for this one, but just things to look out for in general.

--Darin

Apparently there are some BD standalone owners with multiple copies of every blu-ray disc ever released.
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post #27 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by grif32 View Post

If they do sell 11 million and BR still only has a 2:1 lead then thats NOT a good thing for BR..

I dont see them selling 11 million worldwide but you never know

If it even looks like the PS3 starts to gain major sales momentum both Microsoft and Nintendo will drop the price of their consoles (the former much quicker than the latter since its long overdue) to derail Sony's plans for world domination. While this strategy won't affect the PS3 sales much in Europe and Japan (Sony is its own worst enemy at keeping the PS3 priced too high for most folks that want it) it would seriously put the hurt on the PS3 in the States.


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post #28 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Waht poor attach rate? --Darin

Surely you are not here claiming that the PS3 attach rate isn't poor? Of course it's poor - that's to be expected for something that is mainly a video game. You can explain why the attach rate is poor, and you can rightfully argue that it is irrelevant that it is poor. I would agree with that. But I don't think anyone can deny that the attach rate is poor.

(The context here is comparing the HD DVD players with the BD players (PS3's in this case), and you are arguing that the attach rate on the PS3 isn't poor in comparison?!?)


I don't think anyone can claim with any credibility that the the PS3 attach rate isn't poor, and yet, I also can't believe that you would write that long challenge if you in fact agreed with him that the attach rate was poor. So maybe I'm confused, and you can clear it up for me: Do you believe that it is fair to describe the PS3 attach rate as "poor" in comparison to HD DVD standalones? (which was the context the word was used in)
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post #29 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:44 PM
 
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Here is a detailed analysis on the console sales and games for Q2 2007:

http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=402
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post #30 of 234 Old 07-18-2007, 06:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverhcp02 View Post

Ps3 would be lucky with 9 million and Toshiba would be lucky with 500,000 by january, imo.

Never going to happen.

Sony has revised down their numbers are 5 times. So to answer the OP I would say "NO" Sony hasn't learned their lesson and/or they have no grasp of reality.

First let's look at the possibility of selling 10 million units:
1) Sony has sold about 3.7 million units. The 5.5 million unit comes from units shipped not sold. While it is not unusual for CE companies to report units shipped in this case the units on the shelves are not helping the format war. The PS3 has been on the market for 36 weeks so it has averaged about 100K units per week (however recently it has been much worse - about 20K).

2) As a result of the their overcapacity (and lack of demand) they have about 2 million 60GB that will be sold @ $499. Sony has confirmed the 60GB stopped production when price cut was announce. After the 60GB has sold out it the only PS3 sku will be the $599 80GB.

3) Let's say the 60GB increases demand 10x from the current lows and Sony sells 200K units per week (not the Wii is only selling about 200K weekly). Sony would exhaust the remaining supply of 60GB units in about 10 weeks. (2 million units sold).

4) We have 24 weeks left in qtr. Let's say 2 million 60GB units sold plus another 300K 80GB unit sold in next 10 weeks so that would be about 6 million units sold with 14 weeks left to go. 4 million units / 14 weeks = 286K weekly.

For the last 14 weeks of the year Sony would need to sell the $600 80GB units faster than
1) Their own launch
2) Average Wii sales
3) Faster than they sold the 60GB sales priced units

I think under the most optimistic scenario the PS3 will sell (not ship) about 8 million units by 01 JAN 2008. A more realistic window would be 6-7million units. 10 million is simply not possible at point. We haven't even considered the competitor response. If Sony begins to sell 200K+ units weekly Microsoft will cut the price on xbox. A price cut of the 360 down to $199/$299 would make it a more J6P type purchase this holidays. The Will has a build cost of about $150 so that's $100 PROFIT per console sold. The only reason they haven't cut the price. It sells out every week. Why cut the price. If sales lag Nintendo can go to $199 or even $149 and break even on the console. Even if they did something insane like $99 they would lose less per console than Sony.

So this fall
$599 80GB PS3 (60GB sold out).
$299 360 premium
$199 360 core
$199 Wii (or $249 if it continues to sell out, $149 is it doesn't sell)

How many parents are going to get the PS3 with one game $660+ when stores would rather be pushing a 360 or Wii core + 3 games for $480. Stores make essentially nothing after overhead on consoles. They get a nice cut on games. While a Wii or 360 + 3 games may ring up less $$$ then a PS3 with nothing it will results in much higher profit margins.

I am 100% positive that Sony will not sell 10 million units by 01 JAN 2007.
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