Poll:Coexistence between HD DVD & Blu-ray, YES or NO? - AVS Forum
View Poll Results: Coexistence between HD DVD & Blu-ray, YES or NO?
YES 256 53.00%
NO 227 47.00%
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post #1 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 08:06 AM - Thread Starter
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Ok simple question, no matter who's gonna win, thats not important for me, i just want to know,do you think coexistence will happen ?
Or do you guys think, "nahh only 1 format can survive"

YES or NO ?

I'm Captain Jack Sparrow...Savvy?
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post #2 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 08:09 AM
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If dual players drop under the price of two individual players, then yes. Otherwise no.

At no point in your rambling, incoherent post were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it.

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post #3 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 08:15 AM
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Is it possible?

Of course it is, why the poll?

Better question would be 'is it probable' or 'do you think coexistence will happen'
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post #4 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 08:20 AM
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In the short term it's possible but I've my doubts that peaceful coexistence will suffice over the long term.
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post #5 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 08:51 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiffylush View Post

Is it possible?

Of course it is, why the poll?

Better question would be 'is it probable' or 'do you think coexistence will happen'


EDITED

I'm Captain Jack Sparrow...Savvy?
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post #6 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:07 AM
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Why isn't this a public poll?
J
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post #7 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:09 AM
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Nice to know the majority are realistic. Both formats will coexist - the critical mass for each has been acheived, IMO.
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post #8 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:13 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big J View Post

Why isn't this a public poll?
J

it aint? can i change it?

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post #9 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:15 AM
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Yeah, I think co-existence could possibly happen, though I'd prefer HD DVD to come out with a decisive win.

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post #10 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:21 AM
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Frankly, I believe that co-existence for some period of time eventually ends up favoring HD DVD over BRD. Why? Well, with improved codecs, space required ought to drop, making BRD's 20 GB space advantage less meaningful. Also, as online content proliferates (and more and more 'wired' homes have their HD DVD player connected to the web) space becomes less relevant. Last thought, if HD DVDs are truly less expensive to author and press, if you're a studio and you don't need the extra 20GB of space for a title, why would you willingly choose a more expensive format to publish in (BRD) when you can earn $x more per disc with HD DVD? In two or three years, assuming both formats co-exist and dual format player proliferate, I could see studios publishing on both formats depending upon the needs of the title in question -- need a lot of space for a long movie, publish on BRD; shorter film selling to a smaller volume market with lots of opportunity for internet connected extras, publish on HD DVD.
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post #11 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:21 AM
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Coexistence for upto 3 years but with HD-DVD only having 10%-15% of the market.
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post #12 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:30 AM
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If they co-exist it will mean the same fate as DVD-A/SACD.

Mass market will see it as too complicated and not a big enough advantage over DVDs.

HD disc based formats all have a limited time to replace DVDs as the standard. The existance of two formats wastes that time.

By the time one eventually "wins" there will be a newer content delivery technology that will make discs obsolete.

The studios will always win as they own the content.
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post #13 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:31 AM
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Coexistence between the two formats, possible but not likely so I voted "no."
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post #14 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:35 AM
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Coexistence is very unlikely. Retailers don't want it. Studios don't want it. Only a tiny minority of informed but deluded early adopters want it; the rest of the buying public just wants something that works every time.

If coexistence happens, both formats become permanently niche and never hit mainstream.
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post #15 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aydu View Post

If they co-exist it will mean the same fate as DVD-A/SACD.

Mass market will see it as too complicated and not a big enough advantage over DVDs.

HD disc based formats all have a limited time to replace DVDs as the standard. The existance of two formats wastes that time.

By the time one eventually "wins" there will be a newer content delivery technology that will make discs obsolete.

The studios will always win as they own the content.

Good post, totally agree. 2 formats served their purpose, now 1 needs to go away so that adoption speeds up. Many people are not getting into the "war" because they don't want to be wrong and lose money.

I actually am one of them.

The difference between DVD and HDM isn't so great that people can't just wait out a winner. DVD was light years beyond VHS and had no competition. That is why it is now the dominant standard.

Not only is HDM less of an upgrade over DVD than DVD was over VHS, you have 2 HDM formats that do the same thing to further confuse j6p.
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post #16 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aydu View Post

If they co-exist it will mean the same fate as DVD-A/SACD.

Mass market will see it as too complicated and not a big enough advantage over DVDs.

HD disc based formats all have a limited time to replace DVDs as the standard. The existance of two formats wastes that time.

Co-existence hasn't hurt video games. DVD-A and SACD were a product with an extremely small audience being audiophiles. Look at what lower quality MP3s are doing to the CD for the general public. HDMs have plenty of time to replace DVD as only ~30% of the US has an HDTV to use HDM.
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post #17 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:42 AM
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yes,
imo they will both coexist for quite some time, maybe until some sort of next-gen format comes to market. I think, with time we will see many dual-format players as well. There might even come a point, when a combined "HD-Media" marketing approach could come into effect, giving the covers for both formats a similar look and the term 'hd dvd' or 'bluray' would only appear as a logo, just as 'dvd' is now.

This way, studios could still choose on what media they would like to publish. But it would reduce confusion for non-videophiles as well, who just want to get 'a HD player'.

just my 2ct

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post #18 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dhodory View Post

Frankly, I believe that co-existence for some period of time eventually ends up favoring HD DVD over BRD. Why? Well, with improved codecs, space required ought to drop, making BRD's 20 GB space advantage less meaningful. Also, as online content proliferates (and more and more 'wired' homes have their HD DVD player connected to the web) space becomes less relevant. Last thought, if HD DVDs are truly less expensive to author and press, if you're a studio and you don't need the extra 20GB of space for a title, why would you willingly choose a more expensive format to publish in (BRD) when you can earn $x more per disc with HD DVD? In two or three years, assuming both formats co-exist and dual format player proliferate, I could see studios publishing on both formats depending upon the needs of the title in question -- need a lot of space for a long movie, publish on BRD; shorter film selling to a smaller volume market with lots of opportunity for internet connected extras, publish on HD DVD.

Why do you anticipate there will be any discernible difference in cost of media or players further down the line? Mass production will most likely eliminate or very close to eliminate those factors.

If they get so good at utilizing codecs, do you really think that HDDVD 30GB will be cheaper than BR 25GB?
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post #19 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:52 AM
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They will co-exist for a while. Long term I think BR will take over, due to the support they have with Studios, CE manufacturers, Retail and Rental.

That said, they need to get player prices down, because HDDVD is getting quite a few adopters due to cheaper players.
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post #20 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 09:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomes View Post

Why do you anticipate there will be any discernible difference in cost of media or players further down the line? Mass production will most likely eliminate or very close to eliminate those factors.

Well I guess we're just on opposite sides of the "assumption fence". My first thought is that authoring is not likely to get easier given the platforms provided (HDi and BD-J). While BD-J is far more flexible, it comes at the cost of complexity and subject matter expertise/capability. While I suspect you can do quite few "really cool" things with BD-J that you cannot do with HDi, doing those things will require lots of extra time and capability, both of which require money. Second, BRD has replication problems, and at this point they've obviously not solved them (if they had, based on Sony's track record, they'd be screaming it from the top of every mountain with a press release every five minutes). I guess I don't make the assumption that any manufacturing issue can be solved and scaled -- I've seen too many that couldn't be solved/scaled to believe in BRD at this point. Also, keep in mind that BRD has been around (in some form) for something like 6 to 8 years already, I think (started in Japan as a storage medium, I believe) -- my time frame could be off. In any case, to not have solved a manufacturing problem in even 3 years, or 2 years is a problem. So, again, I think the jury is still out on the feasibility of large scale, high yield, economic production of BRD. As with all things, YMMV.
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post #21 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 10:39 AM
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don't we have about two-three polls asking the same thing running at the same time?
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post #22 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 10:51 AM
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I think that coexistence is possible in the scope of both formats failing spectacularly. If HD media is to ever overtake DVD, one will have to prevail.
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post #23 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

don't we have about two-three polls asking the same thing running at the same time?

Yes, can I start a poll to see if these polls can co-exists at the same time and give similar results

Co-exist to me means that there are no overlap of titles, some are on one format, some another. No duplicate titles between BD and HD DVD.

At no point in your rambling, incoherent post were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it.

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post #24 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theflux View Post

I think that coexistence is possible in the scope of both formats failing spectacularly. If HD media is to ever overtake DVD, one will have to prevail.

Hybrids
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post #25 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 01:36 PM
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Short term I think YES.

Long term I think YES.

I am sure that combos and hybrids and dual format players will smooth out this little tiff. I honestly hope that both do well.
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post #26 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 01:41 PM
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If both formats are still with us in a year or two it will likely be because both have pretty much failed.

1. The use cases are almost completely identical, making no clear differentiation in the consumer's mind
2. Customers are waiting for a resolution to the format war before they buy.
3. Once there is a resolution, the winning format will jump forward quickly, and the losing format will be forgotten about. There will be no "legacy".
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post #27 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dhodory View Post

Well I guess we're just on opposite sides of the "assumption fence". My first thought is that authoring is not likely to get easier given the platforms provided (HDi and BD-J). While BD-J is far more flexible, it comes at the cost of complexity and subject matter expertise/capability. While I suspect you can do quite few "really cool" things with BD-J that you cannot do with HDi, doing those things will require lots of extra time and capability, both of which require money. Second, BRD has replication problems, and at this point they've obviously not solved them (if they had, based on Sony's track record, they'd be screaming it from the top of every mountain with a press release every five minutes). I guess I don't make the assumption that any manufacturing issue can be solved and scaled -- I've seen too many that couldn't be solved/scaled to believe in BRD at this point. Also, keep in mind that BRD has been around (in some form) for something like 6 to 8 years already, I think (started in Japan as a storage medium, I believe) -- my time frame could be off. In any case, to not have solved a manufacturing problem in even 3 years, or 2 years is a problem. So, again, I think the jury is still out on the feasibility of large scale, high yield, economic production of BRD. As with all things, YMMV.

Ok, to take a couple of examples, 1 Gig (which I believe is a requirement in profile 1.1) would probably have cost about 100 dollars a couple of years back. Now you can get it for 11 at Newegg. Same goes for cpu's and other similar devices. They get cheaper to produce. Hence why you can buy a ps2 for 80 now, and it probably cost 400 or so when it came out originally.

Dvd production costs obviously must have gone down quite a bit too, from the beginning. (look at dvd-r prices). Also, you can buy movies for a buck at walmart. That means that the cost of making those discs are extremely low. There is no reason why it should be anything different with BluRay (or hddvd). It's about the same amount of plastic and other materials going into it, so at some point it will cost next to nothing.

Hddvd also has some costs like ethernet port and necessary chips to handle networking. (probably doesn't amount to much in terms of cost already, but will get even cheaper down the line)
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post #28 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

If both formats are still with us in a year or two it will likely be because both have pretty much failed.

1. The use cases are almost completely identical, making no clear differentiation in the consumer's mind
2. Customers are waiting for a resolution to the format war before they buy.
3. Once there is a resolution, the winning format will jump forward quickly, and the losing format will be forgotten about. There will be no "legacy".

Hybrids
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post #29 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 05:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

If both formats are still with us in a year or two it will likely be because both have pretty much failed.

1. The use cases are almost completely identical, making no clear differentiation in the consumer's mind
2. Customers are waiting for a resolution to the format war before they buy.
3. Once there is a resolution, the winning format will jump forward quickly, and the losing format will be forgotten about. There will be no "legacy".

My list of BD Myths is at No.30 now
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post #30 of 191 Old 08-08-2007, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

Coexistence is very unlikely. Retailers don't want it. Studios don't want it. Only a tiny minority of informed but deluded early adopters want it; the rest of the buying public just wants something that works every time.

If coexistence happens, both formats become permanently niche and never hit mainstream.

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