Now that today's Fox/Paramount news is clear - what's your personal take/plans? - Page 3 - AVS Forum
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post #61 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 06:23 AM
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Replace Paramount titles with other BD titles. There is no shortage in the medium-term of movies to buy, for me.

Long-term, I expect paramount to get back to BD, latest after the 18 months are up (more likely earlier). No hurry, I can wait either way.

I was going to wait for BU anyways
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post #62 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 06:36 AM
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Originally Posted by kowhite View Post

I think this will now drag this war out longer...and not in a good way. I don't think it's doomed to niche status, but it makes it murkier as to which will win. Yesterday, assuming all studio support stays constant through the end of the year...I had no doubt BD would've killed HD-DVD.

Now I think you'll see the sales rate stay a bit more constant with what we see today. I think adoption won't increase by a lot...at the very least making the PS3 continue to be more relevant.

As for my plans...I plan to stick with BD. I won't go HD-DVD until it's clear it's winning, which ultimately I don't expect to happen anyway, even with this news. This cuts into BD's content advantage...but when it comes down to it, they still have the content advantage in terms of studio supports, they still have the PS3 advantage, and they still have the sales momentum. If I see a shift in those things continue, that's when I'll reconsider. This is a hit, and makes me think this won't be over in January...but not enough to get me to buy another format.

I'm quoting the above because I pretty much feel the same way.


This format war has me starting to wear pretty thin and I'm about ready to reduce my expose to it. I won't buy into HD-DVD unless it becomes very clear that is the direction the market is going. On the other hand, I'm going to dramatically reduce the frivolous impulse BR buying I've done up to this point. I'll still pick up the titles I really want on BR, but those will be much more limited. I'm also going to sell off many of my BR titles that I've only watch one time and will likely not watch again anytime some.

Overall, I think this was very bad for optical HDM in general. I suspect this might have dramatically increased the likelihood of either/both formats remaining in niche status (before yesterday I felt it was very possible BR would make it mainstream).
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post #63 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 07:40 AM
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Originally Posted by am1001 View Post

I've a question - the press release mentions Dreamworks animation specfically. Why didn't it mention the whole of Dreamworks and not just the animation part?

Are we sure that that covers all the Dreamworks studios? Ie that is distributed by dreamworks SVG.

So is it just the animated titles of dreamworks animation that are HD-DVD exclusive, or are all titles of dreamworks HD-DVD exclusive.

There's a big difference in the titles of each.

Dreamworks animation:

http://www.imdb.com/company/co0129164/

Whole of Dreamworks:

http://www.imdb.com/company/co0027541/

Dreamworks was recently bought out and is part of Paramount. Dreamworks Animation is a separate entity and not part of Paramount, but Paramount has the rights to distribute their movies. This agreement covers both Dreamworks and Dreamworks Animation. The only exception made was for Spielberg directed films which may or may not be exclusive to HD DVD.

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post #64 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 08:39 AM
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As I posted in a different thread, we need total studio neutrality, cheap dual-format players, or a clear format winner within the next 6-18 months. I don't see this as possible now. Bad news for HD media. People bought HDTVs because they are small flat monitors that they can hang on their wall and look cool in their home, not really for HD content. Neither HD-DVD or BD look that much better on a 42" screen vs upconverted DVD for the average person to justify buying TWO players to replace their ONE DVD player. This hurts HD media as a whole and is not good news, unless you believe Sony and Blu-Ray will be crushed in a year which I doubt.

What does it mean for me? Well, I'll probably stick to Netflix and stop buying. If dual format is the future and there is mass adoption of both formats, fine. I don't think it will happen but I could be wrong. Maybe with a $200 dual format player by next summer. And if dual format was the future we should have more studios going neutral, not exclusive. Either way right now I don't see a point in spending my hard earned $$ building a catalog of discs in either format.
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post #65 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 08:55 AM
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I think the Blu-Ray decision makers must have been caught off guard by the Paramount offensive. Now it all comes down to the holiday season sales - and the outcome is up for grabs. We're definitely seeing some clear battle lines.

If holiday sales of players and media are weak - it means the format war drags on - with the public likely losing interest and relegating both formats to niche status for another year. We might even see late night talk show hosts making jokes about it.

If there is a breakout by either side - or more turncoat maneuvers by the studios - then the victor could be anointed by early '08.

If sales are strong, but evenly divided, then we have a stalemate - and likely both formats survive for at least another year.

Personally, I'm in the Blu-Ray camp, but if HD DVD does well over the holiday season - then I'll pick up a player in early '08. I'm not so invested in BD that I can't switch - or adopt both formats - but I don't relish the idea of having two niche players on my already over-crowded AV equipment rack.

My strategy is to simply wait until after the holidays - and then reevaluate whether or not to buy into the alternative format.

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post #66 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 09:13 AM
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I always thought HD-DVD would win this thing based on cost issues. Perhaps this Paramount move has something to do with that. Everyone knows that Sony has been subsidizing disc production. Maybe they (Paramount) are looking at what happens when this replication cost goes to normal levels? Also, is it possible that Sony caused this move by Paramount? Could they have made it clear that subsidies would be going away for non-exclusive studios and this made Paramount act since they were originally HD exclusive? If this is the case, could Warner be next?

Warner seems more of a natural for this kind of move than Paramount. Warner actually has a stake in the royalties from HD-DVD as co-developer of the format with Toshiba.

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post #67 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by larrimore View Post

Warner seems more of a natural for this kind of move than Paramount. Warner actually has a stake in the royalties from HD-DVD as co-developer of the format with Toshiba.

For all we know both of them just got a "V8 smack"

We're helping to sell units for & buy media from a company with a competing studio..........what the heck were we thinking

It's just my opinion & it's worth exactly what you paid for it.
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post #68 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 09:29 AM
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I was on the fence, hoping to see blu-ray players crash in price. But now I'm gonna dip my toe in the HD DVD water soon as players drop to the £90ish range.
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post #69 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 09:32 AM
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dount count on BD players to sell cheaper then they are.... it will affect sony ps3 sales.... i think the price drop on the players lands on the empire SONY....

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post #70 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 09:46 AM
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I am just waiting to see what happens in the Christmas Shopping season of 2008 when the big push to get HDTVs starts happening. Until then, I will stick with my HD DVD add on drive.

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post #71 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 10:34 AM
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I love how the HD-DVD supporters think that the PS3 crowd is not important or that they don't have the attach rates as normal stand alone players. What they fail to see is that HD-DVD and their exclusive studios are forgetting a huge chunk of the optimal purchasing demographic for the next decade. Think about it, say most PS3 owners are age 15-40ish; when the young ones starts making money, guess what they will be purchasing, thats right Blu-ray stuff.

This whole announcement is purely a money grab from Paramount, you can forget about the BS spew about caring for the customers and what the market demands. The market already chose a format. Pure greed and I hope it comes back to bite them.

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post #72 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAVEN56706 View Post

dount count on BD players to sell cheaper then they are.... it will affect sony ps3 sales.... i think the price drop on the players lands on the empire SONY....

Kjack (Insider Sigma SOC) mentioned new designs based on a new chip they will be demoing which will do profile 1.1, and will only need a drive to manufacture the BD player.
Also I do not believe that the PS3 was anything more than a beachhead. To continue to depend on it as a major player would be very business foolish. It is a very capable Blu-Ray player, however eventually its multitasking requirements cannot keep it as the cheapest on the market.

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post #73 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma View Post

1) What your general, personal reaction to the news is/was

Generally positive, with some apprehension about what else may be coming.

Quote:


2) How you, personally, see or predict this affecting the outcome of the entire high-def war (does it doom it to niche status, does this mean more studios go neutral soon, etc, or what)

I think that it will drive adoption of HD DVD at the low end. Think about a Wal-Mart display with Transformers, Shrek 3, etc right next to a <$200 HD DVD player - during the 2007 & 2008 holiday seasons. If BDA can respond, it will have to be with lower-priced players, which will help drive mass-market adoption even faster. I think that competition in this arena is a good thing, and will help us get better, more cost-effective products faster.

Quote:


3) What your personal plans are now going forward in the war (are you still as hardcore to one side as ever, more hardcore, thinking about going neutral, or what)

I have assumed that I would need to buy a BD player eventually to go alongside my XA2; I was waiting until they hit $149. Now I will wait until they hit $99, or maybe not bother.
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post #74 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 11:43 AM
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Unlike J6P who most likely will never buy into any of these formats to a larger degree, due to the added confusion with Paramount/Viacom choosing HDDVD - I love movies too much to only own playback capabilities for one of the formats. That said, the negative effect is now that I will buy less movies. Up until yesterday I was content to buy any Warner/Paramount BR versions of a release, and stock up on fox(well ahem..), disney, sony for BR, and the occasional Universal release on HDDVD. My reasoning was that BR looked like they would win and I would have a minimal amount of "coasters" (it can take me years and years to watch a movie after buying it, since I always have about 50 titles I did not watch yet, so I'm worried about having movies in a dead format).

Now, both will probably remain niche, and I'm not sure how much I want to spend on formats that may die in the next 5 years or so.
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post #75 of 75 Old 08-21-2007, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma View Post

1) What your general, personal reaction to the news is/was

As someone who has followed this generation of technology day to day, I was surprised. I would have expected a studio to go neutral prior to something like this, I certainly didn't expect HD DVD to pick up any exclusives given the way the market has been moving.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma View Post

2) How you, personally, see or predict this affecting the outcome of the entire high-def war (does it doom it to niche status, does this mean more studios go neutral soon, etc, or what)

I'd hope that one of Disney or Lionsgate would go neutral, though I don't expect it to happen this year or at least in time to see any of their titles on HD DVD before '08. Warner seems to take pride in supporting both formats so I don't see that moving.

Overall, I think this keeps some balance and will keep HD DVD alive through the holidays and allow less expensive players to reach market. Also, the scale and economics to use the combo as a trojan horse rather than a handicap may come into play, if releases are made combo-only (prices need to go way down on these) and released instead of DVDs by Universal/Paramount. That's just my amateurish view of the situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma View Post

3) What your personal plans are now going forward in the war (are you still as hardcore to one side as ever, more hardcore, thinking about going neutral, or what)

I bought a HD DVD addon for my 360 last year because it was cheap and I just wanted to demo it. If there were only a few more titles I liked, I still wouldn't have felt too bad as it wasn't that expensive (got it on a special for less than $200) and it was an amusing diversion. As the year went on, there were more and more releases I've been interested in, and I've purchased some and rented some from Netflix. Eventually I had enough, and I got a 1080p/HDMI television, so I upgraded to a XA2 (needed the analogs), which I've been very happy with and expect to keep going forward.

As for BD players, the whole incomplete spec thing has really scared me out of buying one yet. I also don't like that the PS3 doesn't have IR remote capability (small annoyance), and that the 1.1/Live profile update hasn't been announced 2 months before it becomes mandatory. The Denon is the only player to be announced as not soon-to-be-crippled and I don't really have $2000 to spare for the few exclusives released so far that I'm interested in. I don't think it's fanboyish to not buy something when a new spec is announced with a firm and soon release date, I do think Sony has put some FUD on themself (in the original old-school IBM sense of the term) by announcing the spec and not announcing which players will support it.

I expect more announcements from both sides at Cedia. If the studio/release situation remains as is I expect to buy a dual player of some sort next year and put my XA2 on my other TV.
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