HDM Rumor thread! Put all rumors here. - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 09:28 AM - Thread Starter
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After a good amount of discussion and input from AVS members, we thought it best to start a catch-all thread for rumors. NOTE: We expect intelligent posts of honest rumblings in the industry. The more credible sources you can cite, the better.

Moderators have the right to question sources. Information supplied as a result of said requests will be kept confidential. If we're not satisfied, your post may be deleted. If it appears you're just posting to stir up flame, you may be suspended.

Anyone posting, "I hEarD rOOmer uR foRmaT iz 2 DIE by XMAS, fanBoiS" is going to be banned immediately.

Walking the fine line between jaw-dropping and a plain ol' yawn.
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post #2 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 10:14 AM
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Great sticky thread Doc. !
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post #3 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 10:43 AM
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post #4 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 10:43 AM
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this is good if it keeps threads from closing.

I think there are good insiders and semi insiders that try to get info out before it is finalized or just at the water cooler stage. A lot of these never pan out, but can give some good clues about what is going on behind the scenes.

Others have no real info, but because their threads disappear we have no way to track how accurate their predictions are.
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post #5 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 11:31 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lomax View Post

Others have no real info, but because their threads disappear we have no way to track how accurate their predictions are.

Exactly. And, 9 times out of 10, it's not the rumor that closes the thread, it's the bickering, bashing, etc. Anyone does that here, and we'll restrict their accounts so that the HD Radio section is the only one they can get to. And nobody wants that.

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post #6 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 11:53 AM
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Great job, this will help the boards alot, might want to announce this thread in the other software forums.


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post #7 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 12:48 PM
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I will start one here:

Third generation Toshiba players will be TL51 compatible.
This is expected as both are supposed to be in the works for quite some time now.

Source: See post #7
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post #8 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 02:07 PM
 
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RUMOR: Chinese HD Players:

Still no sign of Chinese HD players
24 August 2007 22:40 by vurbal

With much fanfare, the HD DVD Promotional Group announced at the Consumer Electronics Show in January that Chinese manufacturers would begin selling low-price HD DVD players in the U.S. this year

But as of mid-August, no manufacturer or retailer has announced a firm date for the players, although HD DVD backers say they still believe players will arrive this year.

Wal-Mart, which had been rumored to be considering bringing in low-cost HD DVD players from a Chinese manufacturer, isn’t talking about its plans.

In an e-mail response to a question about the mass merchant’s fourth-quarter high-definition plans and whether it will bring in players from Chinese manufacturers this year, a spokeswoman said, “We are still evaluating the situation and not making a decision to go solely with one over the other right now."

It remains to be seen what difference less expensive Chinese players would make in the market, although it's fair to say that the real landslide of regular DVD player sales didn't happen until the Chinese made it affordable.

Of course that was also when they weren't paying any DVD royalties, which isn't something they'd be likely to get away with again.

Source: Video Business

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/10833.cfm

Hey . . TWO RUMORS AT ONCE! The Chinese players and "what will Wal-Mart do . . .who will they support?"
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post #9 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 02:19 PM
 
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RUMOR: HD DVD Using The Twin & Combo Format INSTEAD of seperate SD and HD versions

Ending the HDTV DVD War -- By Joseph Whip

It has been an amazing week in the world of High Definition media (HDM) on the Internet forums starting with the Paramount/Dreamworks HD-DVD exclusivity announcement. Fanboys or both red and blu persuasions have been working overdrive spinning the announcement this way and that, proclaiming that their side would be victorious. While some of the postings on sites have been amusing, some have been downright deceitful or libelous, uncalled for and beneath us as HT enthusiasts. To calls of payoffs, the Microsoft behind it all and wanting to rule the world, to Michael Bay being a savior to then being a villain to Steven Spielberg releasing only on BD and not HD, not ever and Sony being the root of all evil. People posting claiming big news which will end the war, only to disappear when nothing happens as they said it would. Ok, nevermind! All very sad really.

An example of how things can get out of hand is the announcement that Steve Nickerson a SVP at Warner Brothers was resigning. Given claims that WB was about to make some big announcement, the fanboys were all a twitter, claiming that this meant that WB was going BD exclusive as Mr. Nickerson was pro HD to no he was pro BD and this meant HD exclusivity. In reality, no one posting had a clue who Mr. Nickerson is and whether it meant anything. Maybe he just wanted to spend more time with his family? Guys, get a life! We will find out soon enough whether it means anything at all. Most likely, it does not.

The other main issue posted on the boards is how to end the war. Swanni has even chimed in on three ways that BD can win the war. Maybe so, but at this point, it seems to me that there is only one side that can end the war quickly, and that is HD not BD. The best that BD can hope is to win a war of attrition that will last a couple more years and hope to gain such an edge on software sales to force the hands of the HD exclusive or neutral studios to give up the ghost. On the other hand, HD has the combo and dual disc hand to play, one which BD has not. The combo disc is a flipper, having HD on one side and SD on the other. The dual disc does the same but does not require flipping the disc over. Some HD owners hate the idea of combos, mostly due to the added cost, making, in the case of WB, the BD discs being $5 cheaper than the combo, which in and of itself may explain some of the sales figures of 300 in favor of BD. I like them.

However, with Paramount now HD exclusive, it is possible that Universal, Paramount and Warners can get together and abandon DVD only releases for their films and release HD/DVD combos only. They would, of course, have to price them more like DVDs and give up their
insane HDM price points. I would suggest a $19.99 msrp. The almost immediate result will be sales of millions upon millions of HD DVD discs almost overnight. What will the Nielsen rankings look like then?
Consumers could buy the discs in confidence knowing that they will always have the DVD side. With numerous discs in the house, they would be more inclined to buy an HD player to take advantage of the much better picture and sound on the other side of the disc. With HD player approaching $199 and lower soon, HD players will reach the point of impulse buys, further fueling sales of the HD discs. The combos would also be travel friendly, as they will play on portable DVD player, laptops and car players as well. Combos are impossible for BD as the DVD Forum will not permit them. I just can't imagine families buying a BD for the house and a separate DVD of the same film for travel purposes. All of this, of course, hinges on the price of the discs. It would be impossible for Fox and Disney to resist entering such a market were it to come to pass. With Fox and Disney becoming neutral, the war would be as good as over.


I acknowledge that what I am proposing would be a bold move by the studios. However, if they want to end the war and do so quickly, it is the most logical alternative.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/2007/08...v-dvd-war.html
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post #10 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 02:33 PM
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I don't have any specific information but I would not be surprised if we see a few Blockbuster announcements soon. Pardon the Pun. The industry realizes that the format war must end very soon if HDDVD is to take off. This holiday season is critical and everyone knows it. In todays NY times there is an interesting quote in an article on HDTV's "Retailers would also like to see them buy a new high-definition DVD player that makes movies on an HDTV especially vibrant — though the format war between companies making Blu-ray and HD DVD players has stymied sales, said James L. McQuivey, principal analyst at Forrester Research.

“The high-definition DVD format war must end by 2008 if retailers are going to sell movie discs and players,” Mr. McQuivey said."

I would not be surprised to see Walmart and the other Big Box stores take sides and I expect more anouncements from the film companies. Everyone realizes that the time to act is now.
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post #11 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 03:02 PM
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The combo/Dual disc strategy can be very strong, but it requires extra funding to the studios to work. First, because they are forced to sell using DVD release prices, which is lower than any current HD-DVD or BD new release prices. If it was only a HD-DVD disc being sold at DVD prices, they would already be making less money per disc sold that what they do now.
Second, the combo/Dual discs actually cost more to manufacture than either HD-DVD only or DVD only discs, so even less profit per unit sold. And the return rates will be bigger since the yields would be slightly worse.

In fact, I'd say that Paramount is going to try the single sku release for Transformers, and that's a good reason to understand why 150mill in incentives were required. It is not necessarily a bribe to stay HD-DVD exclusive, but it might be extra money to fund getting their biggest profile release and selling on a much more expensive medium that they normally would with a SD release.

The real bad thing about combos/Dual discs is that figuring out what is the real adoption rate of both formats will be totally impossible. Today, because of the PS3 effect, we can't use number of players sold to figure out what customers are buying on either format. Once the discs for HD-DVD get totally mixed up with the DVD release, then we will have no means to figure out how many users understand or know that the heck is a HD-DVD, if it is any different from other DVDs they own, nor if it will ever be played on a HD-DVD deck. So both players sold and discs sold will mean absolutely nothing(sure, marketing departments for HD-DVD will have a blast saying HD-DVD is outselling BD 10:1...)

And before any HD-DVD fan comes saying I am a BD fanboy, let me just remind them of their often used argument that most of the PS3 sold are not used to play BDs, and at least 50% of those consumers don't even knew it had such capacity.(which kinda proves Sony's point that you can sell a $600 video game...)

Allan
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post #12 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 03:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDon View Post

Anyone posting, "I hEarD rOOmer uR foRmaT iz 2 DIE by XMAS, fanBoiS" is going to be banned immediately.

Ohh man!!! I was gonna post the most whacked out thing in the world
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post #13 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 03:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ninjanki View Post

The combo/Dual disc strategy can be very strong, but it requires extra funding to the studios to work. First, because they are forced to sell using DVD release prices, which is lower than any current HD-DVD or BD new release prices. If it was only a HD-DVD disc being sold at DVD prices, they would already be making less money per disc sold that what they do now.
Second, the combo/Dual discs actually cost more to manufacture than either HD-DVD only or DVD only discs, so even less profit per unit sold. And the return rates will be bigger since the yields would be slightly worse.

In fact, I'd say that Paramount is going to try the single sku release for Transformers, and that's a good reason to understand why 150mill in incentives were required. It is not necessarily a bribe to stay HD-DVD exclusive, but it might be extra money to fund getting their biggest profile release and selling on a much more expensive medium that they normally would with a SD release.

The real bad thing about combos/Dual discs is that figuring out what is the real adoption rate of both formats will be totally impossible. Today, because of the PS3 effect, we can't use number of players sold to figure out what customers are buying on either format. Once the discs for HD-DVD get totally mixed up with the DVD release, then we will have no means to figure out how many users understand or know that the heck is a HD-DVD, if it is any different from other DVDs they own, nor if it will ever be played on a HD-DVD deck. So both players sold and discs sold will mean absolutely nothing(sure, marketing departments for HD-DVD will have a blast saying HD-DVD is outselling BD 10:1...)

And before any HD-DVD fan comes saying I am a BD fanboy, let me just remind them of their often used argument that most of the PS3 sold are not used to play BDs, and at least 50% of those consumers don't even knew it had such capacity.(which kinda proves Sony's point that you can sell a $600 video game...)

Allan

Link that shows the manufacturing cost of a Twin Format HD DVD?

As far as Videoscan - good ridance! (And the day Wal-Mart seriously enters the HDM market - Videoscan is worthless - they don't get sales data from WM)The studios get the expanded report for the fees that they pay. Just like if the CEA makes available HD player sales via retailers POS systems.
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post #14 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

RUMOR: HD DVD Using The Twin & Combo Format INSTEAD of seperate SD and HD versions

Ending the HDTV DVD War -- By Joseph Whip

.

However, with Paramount now HD exclusive, it is possible that Universal, Paramount and Warners can get together and abandon DVD only releases for their films and release HD/DVD combos only. They would, of course, have to price them more like DVDs and give up their
insane HDM price points. I would suggest a $19.99 msrp. The almost immediate result will be sales of millions upon millions of HD DVD discs almost overnight. What will the Nielsen rankings look like then?
Consumers could buy the discs in confidence knowing that they will always have the DVD side. With numerous discs in the house, they would be more inclined to buy an HD player to take advantage of the much better picture and sound on the other side of the disc. With HD player approaching $199 and lower soon, HD players will reach the point of impulse buys, further fueling sales of the HD discs. The combos would also be travel friendly, as they will play on portable DVD player, laptops and car players as well. Combos are impossible for BD as the DVD Forum will not permit them. I just can't imagine families buying a BD for the house and a separate DVD of the same film for travel purposes. All of this, of course, hinges on the price of the discs. It would be impossible for Fox and Disney to resist entering such a market were it to come to pass. With Fox and Disney becoming neutral, the war would be as good as over.


I acknowledge that what I am proposing would be a bold move by the studios. However, if they want to end the war and do so quickly, it is the most logical alternative.]

Ok, I just don't get it. My advice to Fox, Disney and Sony is to sell their product on the cheaper to produce DVD format, and develope a HI DEF format that they can release day and date with the DVD. They then can charge a premiem for the new disk to people who want them. I know it sounds crazy, bit it just might work.


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post #15 of 1560 Old 08-25-2007, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDon View Post

Anyone posting, "I hEarD rOOmer uR foRmaT iz 2 DIE by XMAS, fanBoiS" is going to be banned immediately.

I will hold you to that Doc.


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post #16 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 07:04 AM
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I predict this thread will spiral out of control...




Kudos on a rational place to put ideas!
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post #17 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 07:16 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nakedeye View Post

I predict this thread will spiral out of control...




Kudos on a rational place to put ideas!

That is totally dependent on the people posting to it. If the posts are articles and blogs with the rumor embedded in them then it becomes . . . interesting.

If all members do is post their one liners then yes it might
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post #18 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 08:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

That is totally dependent on the people posting to it. If the posts are articles and blogs with the rumor embedded in them then it becomes . . . interesting.

If all members do is post their one liners then yes it might


I think the OP/Mod shold make it madatory that all post be followed with a link to the story unless its an insider.


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ray is the best Blah, blah, blah.
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post #19 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 09:07 AM
 
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Originally Posted by hd nOOb View Post

I think the OP/Mod shold make it madatory that all post be followed with a link to the story unless its an insider.

Agree

Disagree - ALL OP rumor posts should require a link. - no made up stuff or "agenda following" as it will dilute the value of the thread. IMO - the idea is to see how many of these rumors prove out, versus how many were just rumors.
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post #20 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 09:20 AM - Thread Starter
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As I pointed out, the less verification given, the more likely we are to PM and ask for it. Which we will. And if the verification is not to our satisfaction, the rumor comes off. Posters can feel free to PM us with sources/verification without being asked. It will still be held in confidence.

ALSO NOTE: Insiders who have not been identified as such, or lurkers or who do not wish to post under their own IDs are welcome to send whatever they have to one of us for anonymous posting. As long as one of us knows who you are, we'll put up the info.

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post #21 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 09:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

RUMOR: HD DVD Using The Twin & Combo Format INSTEAD of seperate SD and HD versions

Ending the HDTV DVD War -- By Joseph Whip
.
.
.
However, with Paramount now HD exclusive, it is possible that Universal, Paramount and Warners can get together and abandon DVD only releases for their films and release HD/DVD combos only. They would, of course, have to price them more like DVDs and give up their
insane HDM price points. I would suggest a $19.99 msrp. The almost immediate result will be sales of millions upon millions of HD DVD discs almost overnight. What will the Nielsen rankings look like then?
Consumers could buy the discs in confidence knowing that they will always have the DVD side. With numerous discs in the house, they would be more inclined to buy an HD player to take advantage of the much better picture and sound on the other side of the disc. With HD player approaching $199 and lower soon, HD players will reach the point of impulse buys, further fueling sales of the HD discs. The combos would also be travel friendly, as they will play on portable DVD player, laptops and car players as well. Combos are impossible for BD as the DVD Forum will not permit them. I just can't imagine families buying a BD for the house and a separate DVD of the same film for travel purposes. All of this, of course, hinges on the price of the discs. It would be impossible for Fox and Disney to resist entering such a market were it to come to pass. With Fox and Disney becoming neutral, the war would be as good as over.


I acknowledge that what I am proposing would be a bold move by the studios. However, if they want to end the war and do so quickly, it is the most logical alternative.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/2007/08...v-dvd-war.html

Interesting article/post, but I don't see any rumor in here. It is one person (clearly rooting for HDDVD) that is putting a proposition out there. If some insider from the HDDVD consortium alluded to this actually being in the works, that is what I would consider a rumor. What Mr. Whip is saying is simply an idea he has and hopes can help "his side" win the war.
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RUMOR: Profile 1.1 Becomes An Issue With Consumers:

Two kinds of lies in the format war- lies and damn lies.

Posted Fri Aug 10, 2007, 8:19 PM ET — By Shane Buettner

Week in and week out the CE press is inundated with propaganda and counter-propaganda from both sides in the format war. Most of this stuff falls under the category of all being fair in love, war and marketing. But sometimes these things go a little too far.
Blu-ray has now got its own propaganda web site, and I wouldn't expect anything that appears on this site (or Toshiba's Look and Sound of Perfect website for that matter) to be remotely non-partisan. But this Blog recently posted at this site goes rather far beyond simple partisanship.

The call out at the top of this page screams "Universal's Kornblau Wants Format War To Continue." Wow. When he's not trying to screw consumers with a lousy format war, does he strangle kittens for fun too?

While there are several direct quotes in this article attributed to Universal's President regarding the format war, I did not read a single one that comes close to supporting the hyperbolic call out at the top of the page.

Kornblau is quoted as saying something that a number of non-partisan industry pundits have said many times, and is probably correct. That the format was has been good for consumers in the sense that prices have come down farther and faster than they would have otherwise. Which is not the same as being in favor of a format war for the sake of a format war.

I'll go farther than that- the format war has been good for quality. Take a look at the first batches of Blu-ray titles we saw last summer (Fifth Element was so bad Sony has fixed it for free!). It's entirely possible that we'd have been stuck with that kind of crap for a good while had HD DVD not set the bar higher in terms of picture and sound quality right out of the gate.

But where this Blog is far more disingenuous is in its discussion of interactivity. The Blog states that "with the notable exception of the "U-Control" interactive feature that Universal introduced on several titles last year, the studio hasn't exactly been blazing many trails of innovation with content that couldn't be delivered on Blu-ray Discs and even DVDs in many cases."

This is overtly dishonest on a number of levels. Not the least of which is a gross exaggeration of DVD's interactivity prowess. (C'mon man, you can't even view a chapter list on a DVD without stopping the movie!)

And while it's possible that PIP features like U-Control could be delivered on Blu-ray, and certainly will one day, the simple fact is that as of right now they aren't. And why is that, you ask? There isn't a single standalone Blu-ray Disc player on the market that can support even the simplest Picture-In Picture functionality, nor can they be updated because hardware is at issue. A secondary video decoder is required for PIP and not a single standalone Blu-ray player in the market is so equipped. This is why Warner and others are putting PIP features similar to U-Control on their HD DVDs and not on their BDs. While it's possible, if not likely, that the PlayStation3 supports PIP features as it's already spec'd with a secondary video decoder, there is no guarantee. And certainly it's significant if, as is likely, the PS3 supports PIP as it is far and way the most prevalent HD player in the market for either format.


But that's still apparently not enough for the studios to start putting these features on their discs because they haven't done so thus far, even though Warner already has the material created and put to use on many of its HD DVD titles.

And Warner has good reason to be cautious. The attempts so far to push the BD-J interactivity envelope haven't been trouble free. Those ridiculous BD-Java games that are encoded on the Pirates of the Caribbean BDs throw current standalone players into fits. Don't believe me? Watch this video.

The video is obviously a worse case scenario, but in our own tests it's typical for standalone players to take two to three minutes just to boot to the menus on the Pirates discs, and if you actually engage the games it's common for them not to work and/or the player to lock up.

So, if you've invested in a more expensive standalone Blu-ray player, and Blu-ray Discs do come out with PIP features like U-Control, you're SOL. You'll allegedly be able to play the movie, but take a look at the YouTube video to see what kind of experience you might have while your player figures out how to navigate a disc with BD-J features your player doesn't support.

Blu-ray's inconvenient truth is this: standalone BD players introduced after October 31st of this year will be required to support Java profile 1.1, which supports PIP features. Players introduced before then do not. And guess what? Samsung (and probably other manufacturers) are popping out third-gen BD players for September and October that beat the deadline and thus will not offer support for PIP features.

As far as web connectivity goes, Hettrick says wait 'til BD Live comes along. I think we will be waiting- probably until at least the 4th-generation of BD players next year. Few Blu-ray standalone players even have Ethernet ports, but that's irrelevant anyway. BD Live requires the player to support Java Profile 2.0, which has different hardware requirements than previous Java implementations. Not a single Java Profile 2.0 Blu-ray player has been announced to date, and so far only Denon's BD players are announced as supporting Java 1.1.

Blu-ray has a great story to tell. But interactivity isn't part of that story yet, and Blu-ray honks just shouldn't go there in touting their format. And really, Blu-ray is winning the format war so far. So, why not show a little class and act like it?

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post #23 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 10:30 AM
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I work at bestbuy and a toshiba rep and i were talking about the new paramount deal etc. He mentioned to me some interesting things hes heard. He told me toshiba is planning to market Transformers with their new players. He said most likely they will be thrown in the box for free and have a huge marketing campain. Also mentioned that it is a very high chance that warner will go HD exclusive.
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post #24 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 10:37 AM
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If it is true that WB is going to HD-DVD exclusive, that will be great us HD-DVD owners and shocking news to blu-ray owners, but I read at hidefdigest.com that WB is denying this rumor.
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post #25 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 10:40 AM
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All possible.

It would be stupid for Toshiba NOT to market Transformers with HD-DVD players
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post #26 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 10:48 AM
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If it is true that WB is going to HD-DVD exclusive, that will be great us HD-DVD owners and shocking news to blu-ray owners, but I read at hidefdigest.com that WB is denying this rumor.

I wouldn't take much from that High Def Digest news post. They slanted the original Video Business article, in which there wasn't really a denial and just a statement that Nickerson's departure wasn't due to a shift in strategy. They also tacked on the line that Dorinda will continue to support both formats which they pulled out of thin air.

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post #27 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shordy999 View Post

I work at bestbuy and a toshiba rep and i were talking about the new paramount deal etc. He mentioned to me some interesting things hes heard. He told me toshiba is planning to market Transformers with their new players. He said most likely they will be thrown in the box for free and have a huge marketing campain. Also mentioned that it is a very high chance that warner will go HD exclusive.

Now thats a quality rumor ....

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post #28 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 11:09 AM
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Just a quick question that I wondered. When you get these promotions like 5 free movies or lets say free Transformer movie with your HD DVD player. Do they count these movies as being sold?
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post #29 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shordy999 View Post

I work at bestbuy and a toshiba rep and i were talking about the new paramount deal etc. He mentioned to me some interesting things hes heard. He told me toshiba is planning to market Transformers with their new players. He said most likely they will be thrown in the box for free and have a huge marketing campain. Also mentioned that it is a very high chance that warner will go HD exclusive.

Finally, an honest-to-goodness rumor in the rumor thread. Thanks. Sales reps aren't necessarily reliable sources, but they are generous sources of rumors.
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post #30 of 1560 Old 08-26-2007, 11:23 AM
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Just a quick question that I wondered. When you get these promotions like 5 free movies or lets say free Transformer movie with your HD DVD player. Do they count these movies as being sold?

No.

The measure of a man's character is what he would do if he knew he never would be found out.
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