Nielsen Prediction Thread for 11/30 (Predictions due Wednesday 11/28) - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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post #181 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 12:47 PM
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65:35
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post #182 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 01:48 PM
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I predict 63:37.
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post #183 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 02:21 PM
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47:53

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Film Collection -------- DVD: 181 ------------------ HD DVD: 19
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post #184 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 03:31 PM
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I'm going to let my prediction from last week ride . . .

30:70 in favor of HD DVD.
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post #185 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 03:48 PM
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First time to do this here, so I'l go the wishy-washy "stalemate" route

50:50

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post #186 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 03:57 PM
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I'm not expecting much from Star Trek, but with deals including 3 extra free discs (not in the box) with some Toshiba players and everything else going on (like Black Friday), I'm going to guess:

53:47

--Darin

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post #187 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:08 PM
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53 : 47

Dissapointing Shrek III last week but am still gunning to join the elusive trondmm at the top
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post #188 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:45 PM
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Numbers were leaked by Hollywood Reporter. Are those accurate? Won't post here as not to muck the thread up.

!
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post #189 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:46 PM
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From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...36c0078ef4de4a
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post #190 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:47 PM
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Hollywood reporter from today.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...36c0078ef4de4a

Quote:


20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's "Live Free or Die Hard," released the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, generated first-week sales that were 20% ahead of projections, in addition to nearly 100,000 Blu-ray Disc copies, said Steve Feldstein, the division's senior vp corporate and marketing communications.


Quote:


The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD.

Wow.
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post #191 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:48 PM
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Whoah, since the cat's already out of the bag, I'm going to abstain from voting this week. Surprising numbers nonetheless - I was going to guess 68:32.
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post #192 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RUR View Post

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...36c0078ef4de4a

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post #193 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:49 PM
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Just goes to prove that Amazon salesrank and DVD Empire are not accurate prediction tools (at all).

!
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post #194 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris NYC View Post

Just goes to prove that Amazon salesrank and DVD Empire are not accurate prediction tools (at all).

Yep.

The Big chains still hold all the cards when it comes to HDM sales.
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post #195 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:06 PM
 
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Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.

Fantastic week, and that doesn't even include all those blu-rays rung up at Walmart!
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post #196 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RUR View Post

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...36c0078ef4de4a

I saw that just a little after putting in my guess of 53:47. Now I wish I hadn't voted. I'm guessing that technically I could change my vote, but I think that would be cheating and if those numbers are right, I figure I should take it like a man for my worst week yet as far as guesses (off by 20). I figured if 20k Toshiba players sold with 3 extra free discs that would be 60k counted on the HD DVD side (not even counting what those people would buy on their own) and more if more players sold with those extra discs.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #197 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:09 PM
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74:26

Silence is Golden. Duct Tape is Silver.
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post #198 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:09 PM
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I give up on guessing. Lately I havent even been close. This has been all over the map. One week I over guess Blu-ray the next HD-DVD. I think Ill just go watch some movies.

It just looks expensive!

My Theater
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post #199 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:11 PM
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FWIW, my guess (two posts up) was posted via quick reply from the first page. I only read the info on this page after making it. But if Winn wants to toss me out because I was too late, I'll take it like a man.

Silence is Golden. Duct Tape is Silver.
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post #200 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:12 PM - Thread Starter
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For the first week, we are done early. It had been a long time since there was an early leak. Since the official end is my posting my prediction, I am going with 73-27.
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post #201 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.

I've been checking some stores and it seems to be selling very slowly. One Costco has had 11 of them each time I or a friend checked over a few days (starting on the Tuesday it came out). Another looked like they might have sold 3 copies by Sunday (out of 11). A local Best Buy had one copy on the new release shelf each time I checked, although maybe they were restocking it. It wouldn't surprise me if it didn't even get into the top 5 for HD DVD. Not sure if HMM has stopped giving us weekly top 10 overall and top 5 for the formats though (since they didn't last week).

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #202 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:19 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geko29 View Post

FWIW, my guess (two posts up) was posted via quick reply from the first page. I only read the info on this page after making it. But if Winn wants to toss me out because I was too late, I'll take it like a man.

I'm going to take it.

I had included warnings about early number leaks in the first weeks of the contest ending things. I stopped including them. Obviously, I need to put them back in the first post.

It is rare that there are any new posts after 8PM Eastern anyway. last week was an exception. Something like this has always been a risk when it comes to posting late.

Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I've been checking some stores and it seems to be selling very slowly. One Costco has had 11 of them each time I or a friend checked over a few days (starting on the Tuesday it came out). Another looked like they might have sold 3 copies by Sunday (out of 11). A local Best Buy had one copy on the new release shelf each time I checked, although maybe they were restocking it. It wouldn't surprise me if it didn't even get into the top 5 for HD DVD. Not sure if HMM has stopped giving us weekly top 10 overall and top 5 for the formats though (since they didn't last week).

--Darin

I think last week was only because of the holiday and the desire to get out of the office as quickly as possible.
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post #203 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.

Fantastic week, and that doesn't even include all those blu-rays rung up at Walmart!

I haven't been following HDM sales or voted lately. So can anyone tell me if BR had a more buy one get one free sales that would be reflected in those totals?
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post #204 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:22 PM
 
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Guess i was pretty close. I predicted that Star Trek would be a HUGE disapointment, and the 3 free that count per hd dvd player has slowed down considerably. Not to mention that during black friday, frys had 4 free blu-ray movies with every 40 gig ps3 sold, and i saw an ENTIRE pallet of them sold. Thats just 1 frys. So again, BD outsells HD DVD nearly 3:1 when it counts, the holiday season.
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post #205 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JackBee View Post

Guess i was pretty close. I predicted that Star Trek would be a HUGE disapointment, and the 3 free that count per hd dvd player has slowed down considerably. Not to mention that during black friday, frys had 4 free blu-ray movies with every 40 gig ps3 sold, and i saw an ENTIRE pallet of them sold. Thats just 1 frys. So again, BD outsells HD DVD nearly 3:1 when it counts, the holiday season.

well the star trek set cost MORE than the player, so it was pretty much dead in the water to begin with.

More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.
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post #206 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winn View Post

For the first week, we are done early. It had been a long time since there was an early leak. Since the official end is my posting my prediction, I am going with 73-27.

winn, that is pretty darn funny.

Didn't see this big of a win for Blu Ray after the wal mart hd dvd fire sale......
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post #207 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reginald Trent View Post

I haven't been following HDM sales or voted lately. So can anyone tell me if BR had a more buy one get one free sales that would be reflected in those totals?

They did have some on Fox titles at Frys. They also had the deal with free discs at Frys with 40GB PS3s mentioned. HD DVD had deals for $199 for an HD-A3 with 10 free discs on Amazon (3 of which would have counted) which shot the HD-A3 up into the top 3 in electronics on Amazon. They also had 10 free discs with the HD-A30 and HD-A35 on Amazon (3 of which would have counted here again). I may be missing some other deals, like some on Amazon. HD DVD was doing much better pretty much the whole week on Amazon for disc rankings, so we can see that it didn't really correlate with Nielsen (if these numbers are right), even though it is included in the Nielsen numbers (according to everything reliable I've read).
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcgarnagle View Post

More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.

Without seeing the actual numbers and going by estimates of what almost 100k of Live Free or Die Hard might mean for how much Nielsen would count as well as Dave Vaughn's comment about Shrek the Third doing about half of Ratatouille (1st week to 1st week), it looks to me like LFoDH may have done about 3x Shrek the Third and 1.5x Ratatouille, despite the box office takes in the US being:

Shrek the Third: $321 million
Ratatouille: $206 million
Live Free or Die Hard: $135 million

Should probably tell us some things.

BTW: I just realized that they probably counted the box sets for LFoDH, but even so, it is interesting.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #208 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:41 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcgarnagle View Post

well the star trek set cost MORE than the player, so it was pretty much dead in the water to begin with.

More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.

How does Star Trek cost MORE then the player? Isnt the A3 299 MSRP? Star Trek is 199 MSRP. The A2 isnt being made anymore and discontinued, so please don't refer to its close out price as what you can get one for. Thanks.
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post #209 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 05:47 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phansson View Post

winn, that is pretty darn funny.

Didn't see this big of a win for Blu Ray after the wal mart hd dvd fire sale......

I was planning on a serious prediction of 71:29. I was going to to tweak it up or down 2 points based on the usual Hollywood Reporter article and which titles lead each format.

Obviously, I decided to tweak it up 2 points.

This is why I am not seriously playing. Going last and being unable to post too late is a huge advantage.

If these are the numbers, and I cannot think of a reason to doubt them, this is our worst week ever as a group. Only 3 people guessed too high.
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post #210 of 451 Old 11-28-2007, 06:23 PM
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73:27 (And yes, I came in, was about to put down 68:32 and saw that number above). This ruins the usual antici.......pation that happens on friday. I should have checked back earlier, but there's so much stuff to do here... ...

---

Edit : I was really looking for Fox to make some announcement about DieHard sales. If they did and claim > 100k sold, I was going to go 75:25, but since they didn't, there's no way to know for sure. If they sold a lot more than 100k, obviously 80:20 would be a high watermark, but it would be very difficult to move from 75:25 to 80:20 even if that happened. So obviously DieHard did not sell 100k (even though they came close, but no cigar --- very close to 100k is still not 100k). (combined with the box set, of course).
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