Things that make you go Hmmm. Laserdisc Versus HDM - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Over the last year I've read endless posts from both sides declaring that two formats were significantly holding back HD adoption. Your presuming I expect Blu-ray to take on DVD, I do not. I simply expect some evidence in market-share that the Warner decision has spurred BD disk sales, even to the degree of one-half a point in the broader market. There are surely enough drives (via the PS3) out there, that it's reasonable to expect some sort of tangible increase in disk sales if the WB decision has instilled confidence in the format. No?

Dropping the bottom out of the HD DVD market isn't a win, unless blu-ray at least has the momentum to displace it. Otherwise all we have is a decrease in HDM sales.

Don't you think you should give it a little time first and correct for the normal after christmas lull? Not everyone on the sidelines installed a firepole in their house waiting for that fatefull day when warner brothers decided.
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post #92 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:16 PM
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Me like. How much did that bad boy sell for?
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post #93 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:20 PM
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This post attempts an analogy, but the analogy is wrong. The real analogy goes like this:

DVD = VHS
Blu-ray = Laserdisc
HD DVD = ???

If there were 2 competing laserdisc formats then maybe you'd have a point, but as it stands there is no precedent for the scenario you describe. This of course assumes that Blu-ray "wins" HD DVD, which in itself is a debatable proposition (as are the terms of "winning").
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post #94 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HuntzHD View Post

Don't you think you should give it a little time first and correct for the normal after christmas lull? Not everyone on the sidelines installed a firepole in their house waiting for that fatefull day when warner brothers decided.

I've bought close close to 30-some BDs in the last couple weeks, given the size of the market, that alone should have registered.
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post #95 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

I've bought close close to 30-some BDs in the last couple weeks, given the size of the market, that alone should have registered.

Well, no matter how you talk. Nobody can claim you aren't pulling your weight
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post #96 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Over the last year I've read endless posts from both sides declaring that two formats were significantly holding back HD adoption. Your presuming I expect Blu-ray to take on DVD, I do not. I simply expect some evidence in market-share that the Warner decision has spurred BD disk sales, even to the degree of one-half a point in the broader market. There are surely enough drives (via the PS3) out there, that it's reasonable to expect some sort of tangible increase in disk sales if the WB decision has instilled confidence in the format. No?

Dropping the bottom out of the HD DVD market isn't a win, unless blu-ray at least has the momentum to displace it. Otherwise all we have is a decrease in HDM sales.

Temporary* decrease.

Once on the industry starts promoting one standard, and everyone (Toshiba and former HD-DVD supporters included) starts singing the chorus, the momentum towards HDM adoption will be far, far greater than a split market would have ever allowed.
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post #97 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 08:16 PM
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HD-DVD=Selectavision/Videodisc

Blu Ray= Laserdisc
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post #98 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 08:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by William View Post

How about a 85/15 sales ratio last week (the biggest difference so far) and over 52 straight weeks of higher sales. Maybe that would help you see that BD is IN FACT winning.

The REAL war is HDM vs DVD. As far as that goes, HD DVD is currently winning on Amazon.com outselling ALL DVD players of any kind.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...***pd_ts_e_nav

If they keep that up for the next 6 months, Warner and others will take notice.
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post #99 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 08:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z07VETTE View Post

The REAL war is HDM vs DVD. As far as that goes, HD DVD is currently winning on Amazon.com outselling ALL DVD players of any kind.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...***pd_ts_e_nav

If they keep that up for the next 6 months, Warner and others will take notice.

I would have thought that, but HD DVD players have always done very well on Amazon, and they continued to during the holiday season. However, those sales never did translate into significant sales increase compared to Blu-ray, likely because they were just keeping up with the rising PS3 tide.

I do believe the tide was turning toward HD DVD a bit after November, and I believe HD DVD would have made more inroads in Q1 2008 if Warner hadn't pulled the plug when they did. Now that such a cataclysmic event has happened, it may take longer than Universal, Paramount, and Dreamworks will allow for a recovery to occur.

From the beginning, I thought it would have been prudent for the studios, the ones who want to sell CONTENT not formats (other than Sony), to release their content on any format that could move. A level playing field as far as content would have told us what the consumer would have chosen. With limited content, the consumer really never did have a real choice other than to choose both or to choose neither. To this point, most have chosen neither.
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post #100 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 08:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z07VETTE View Post

The REAL war is HDM vs DVD.

There is no "war" against DVD. DVD did not "war" against VHS. The new supercedes the old when it was has more capability. Blu-ray undoubtedly has more capability than DVD, in the ways consumers care about (high definition most notably) and in the way the content owners care about: DRM, as sad as it is. CSS is irrevocably broken. There has yet to be an effective BD+ exploit available in the wild, and AACS was built to adapt to the issues (new keys and the revocation of the keys of compromised players, especially the software kind). If for no other reason than that, the studios could be tempted switch from DVD prematurely once Blu-ray player penetration is higher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Z07vette View Post

As far as that goes, HD DVD is currently winning on Amazon.com outselling ALL DVD players of any kind.

To bring an ironic argument of the HDDVD side on the PS3 and Blu-ray, how does anyone know they're being used for HDDVD? Especially given that the software sales are as lopsided as they are.

Either one of two possibilities: 1) Being used only for upconversion, etc. or 2) Lots of repurchases from owners of the older gen players upgrading, with a much smaller growth in "new" owners.

Maybe a third option that's a combo of the two?

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post #101 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 08:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by William View Post

How do you justify that statement. BD has sold more STB's (Toshiba's CES numbers), game players, and has blown HD DVD out for over a year now in software sales each week (53-0). The last weeks ratio was 85% BD and 15% HD DVD. Hardly winning by any stretch. The facts across the board say BD is winning by a large margin.

Also if the consumers are buying 85% BD and only 15% HD DVD's (last week) aren't they (we) choosing?

A 2003 survey commissioned by the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of America) found that when it asked respondents what formats they purchased music in, 2.7% of respondents named DVD-A, while only 0.5% chose SACD. However, when the actual sales figures were examined for the same year, DVD-A only sold about 400,000 discs compared to 1.3 million SACDs. Vicotory you say? Hmmm...
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post #102 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 09:11 PM
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...kudos to those that did some digging and brought forth some formats that I didn't know about - I had considered myself pretty savvy, but Video on DAT? That's just crazy talk....

I figure the odds of HD-DVD being sustainable into 2009 about the same as D-VHS making a comeback (I may have missed it, but I didn't notice that format listed above).

I know lots of people on AVS had players, and some probably still use them, but I for one looked at the players at my local retailer and just shook my head - one manufacturer that I could see (JVC), spotty studio support at best, and a clear indication that the future HD formats would be on shiny disc.

Now, god love HD-DVD, it certainly had the nicest people championing it, and I benefited greatly by jumping in when I did. Heck, I got a T-Shirt from Amir, and a free lunch from Tosh (alas, BD has gifted me little). However, to ignore the writing on the wall with the Warner announcement would indeed be quite silly.

The first post brings up something I had mentioned earlier when it was first being asked about a year ago whether or not HDM would be better than LD - I stated at the time that it'd be a hard slog to get anywhere -near- the (relatively minimal compared to VHS/DVD) success of LD.

Much has been made of DVD-A/SACD, and whether or not they hold an analogy to this HDM format fun - for me, the clear connection is that for both audio formats I simply gobbled up as many titles as I can while they were still being spat out, and bemoan to this day those that never left the clutches of the studios/labels (Graceland, the rest of the Dylan/Miles Catalogue, Floyd, Beatles, etc., etc.) Hell, there are 5.1 mixes sitting on tape, artist authorized, lying dormant.

So, if there are still BD discs being pressed a decade from now I'll be completely shocked. If there are still SD discs it'll be surprising, but less so (upconverting will only get better, of course, and there will still be a humungous number of players/applications). If there are HD-DVD discs 2 years from now it'll be surprising. As will a 5th generation of HD-DVD only players (with the odds for 4th gen 50/50).

Can BD beat SD before the downloads kick in? Why is MSFT pissed on regularly regarding nefarious plans for downloading with Apple's TV solution and current laptop proudly eschew optical entirely?

The future is hard to predict, but what's extremely easy to do is to be pessimistic about the future of HDM. If you only had a few years to live, wouldn't you want to make the best of it, to check out everything that you could while the time was allotted? If so, be happy you're on the HDM marry-go-'round, may we continue to live in interesting times...

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post #103 of 430 Old 01-20-2008, 11:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z07VETTE View Post
As far as that goes, HD DVD is currently winning on Amazon.com outselling ALL DVD players of any kind.
There seems to be at least two lists with differing info...

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...***pd_ts_e_nav

http://www.amazon.com/b******amb_lin...f_rd_i=1065836

arg. links don't work like they should. But the listing, and what products are on the list, are dependent on how you get there for some reason...

OK, I give up, PDF of the other bestselling page is attached...

 

bestselling_2.pdf 175.4296875k . file

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BD, IPTV, HDTV decoder supplier
Blog: http://www.keithjack.net
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post #104 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 12:14 AM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v-kWAUYbZE

If only Blu Ray had such AWESOME marketing!

AJG
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post #105 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 01:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James R. Geib View Post

So HD-DVD is dead? Well, maybe not....

When was this phrase first uttered for the venerable Laserdisc? Care to guess how long Laserdisc titles were released, and just how many players sold?
......................................

How many total releases were there for the low-volume sales device? Over 47,000!

Based on these numbers, and the sales of HD-DVD players and software, I'd say HD-DVD will be around long after 2008 comes to an end despite Warner's decision.

Any takers? Do you think HDM via Blu-Ray will still be available new in even 15 years?

http://laserdiscplanet.com/museum2.html

Well, I got that beat.

Quote:


9.5 mm film is an amateur film format introduced by Pathé Frères in 1922 as part of the Pathé Baby amateur film system. It was conceived initially as an inexpensive format to provide copies of commercially-made films to home users, although a simple camera was released shortly afterwards.

It became very popular in Europe over the next few decades and is still used by a small number of enthusiasts today. Over 300,000 projectors were produced and sold mainly in France and England, and many commercial features were available in the format.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9.5_mm_film

It's easy to get confused between something that exists because enthusiasts continue to support it and something that is a viable commercial product.

LD is often brought up as some kind of comparitor for HDM, but LD had a total lifespan of more than 20 years! It had a period of 10 years (1988 - 1998) where it enjoyed a unique and popular niche position as a platform for delivering superior picture and sound along with special features such as audio commentaries - not to mention almost all releases in their original aspect ratio. I'm not sure that the studios were ever big fans of LD but home theatre enthusiasts and film-makers loved it and it was profitable.

LD was (and is) a unique product that was quickly superceded by DVD because it did all the things LD did, only better (if we don't count the compressed audio and digital artefacts).

So, whither HD DVD? HD DVD will not cease to exist, but I do not expect it to be a product offered to general consumers by the time we reach Q4 2008.

I suspect that the very best that HD DVD fans can hope for is that it will dwindle to an enthusiasts niche with a degree of online support. There will be plenty of spare Toshiba players to go around and a modest library of software (remaining new stocks + second hand). How long it might continue in its reduced form is anyones guess. That's up to the enthusiasts who want to keep it alive.

But to estimate HD DVD's future based on the legacy market for LD is not a vaild argument. The LD library was vast compared to HD DVD and the market for LD product continues to be fuelled by those looking for rare titles and supplementary material that has never appeared on DVD. I just don't see any equivalence there with HD DVD atall.

On your final point, I doubt Blu-ray will last 15 years. VHS had 25 years, Laserdisc had 20 years, DVD has had 10 years and will probably be the most popular way of watching home video for another 3 - 5 years.

Anyway, one year from now we will all know what happened to HD DVD. We should also have a much better idea of whether Blu-ray is likely to become a mass market product and take a serious slice of market share from DVD.
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post #106 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 04:17 AM
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If were going to compare formats based on their popularity and run time then:
Having nothing to do with PQ/AQ

HD-DVD=CED
BLU-RAY=laserdisc
DVD=VHS
Divx=betamax
MUSE LD=DVHS
VCD=SVCD
TIVO=PVR
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post #107 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 04:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerx View Post

If were going to compare formats based on their popularity and run time then:
Having nothing to do with PQ/AQ

HD-DVD=CED
BLU-RAY=laserdisc
DVD=VHS
Divx=betamax
MUSE LD=DVHS
VCD=SVCD
TIVO=PVR

The ones in bold are still 'live' formats with unknown 'run times' and cannot be compared with a dead format until they too have snuffed it.
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post #108 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 04:43 AM
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Do rental stores still have new VHS.? I've not been to one in a few years now. I thought VHS still was around in rental form only. But prehapps its fully gone now
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post #109 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 05:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kjack View Post

There seems to be at least two lists with differing info...

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...***pd_ts_e_nav

http://www.amazon.com/b******amb_lin...f_rd_i=1065836

arg. links don't work like they should. But the listing, and what products are on the list, are dependent on how you get there for some reason...

OK, I give up, PDF of the other bestselling page is attached...

I don't know why, but the link you used does not seem to include Toshiba HD DVD players at all. At 8:43 a.m. Eastern Time, if you go to the players themselves, you will see the following rankings in Electronics:

Bestsellers in Electronics
Any Category > Electronics > DVD Players & Recorders

# 1- Toshiba A3 (12 in overall Electronics)
# 4- Toshiba A30 (NR)
# 7- Toshiba A35 (45)
# 8- Panasonic DMP-BD30K (75)
#15- Samsung BD-P1400 (173)
#18- Sony BDP-S300/SM (NR)
#20- Sharp Aquos BDHP20U (249)

NR=No Ranking listed for overall Electronics

Of course, we have no way of knowing what the sales or gaps are, but ranking #12 in overall Electronics compared to #75 for the nearest Blu-ray player seems rather significant, although none of this matters if more software isn't sold.
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post #110 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 06:00 AM
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Originally Posted by jpco View Post

Of course, we have no way of knowing what the sales or gaps are, but ranking #12 in overall Electronics compared to #75 for the nearest Blu-ray player seems rather significant, although none of this matters if more software isn't sold.

Todays all exclusives are paid and this reflect in actual sales software position; and after that ?

I think nobody needs to sign a contract to launch DVDs, for example.
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post #111 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 06:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fpconvert View Post

Me like. How much did that bad boy sell for?

It's list was around $700 when it was launched - by X-Mas '83 it was selling for $399 at Silo Electronics in Albuquerque, NM, where my dad bought it for me - and it came with 2 discs - one called "Interface" with weird 'jazz' versions of songs like "Just the way you are" - that sounded like bad porno music! The other CD was a CBS/Sony demo that was half classical tracks and half pop - it had Lipps Inc's FUNKYTOWN on it!

On X-Mas day, the door of the player broke - it was motor driven and it snapped a gear and just fell open - took 3 weeks for The Audio Clinic to fix because Silo had no more in stock to exchange. The time display LED's on the front panel maxed out at 60 minutes! And there was no 'scan' function - you could skip in 30 second increments, but that was it - oh, and searching from track 1 to the last track on a disc could take up to 30 seconds. And the CD had better be manufactured PERFECTLY or the DA-1000 would mute randomly... I had to go through 3 copies of ABBA's Greatest Hits Vol. 2 before I found one that would play all the way without muting. That was back in the day when we could rent LP's and CD's from VideoVision's Rent-A-Record-Rent-A-Disc video/audio store.

My next player was a Sony D-5 DiscMan, which actually had better sound than the Hitachi. I used the Hitachi so much that the tracking mech died and I ended up 'selling' it to The Audio Clinic and taking a Sansui QRX-6500 QS Vario-Matrix Quadraphonic receiver in exchange from their refurbed equipment room. That quad receiver provided me with my first experience in Logic-Decoded motion picture sound from LaserDisc's.

Ty C. :-)
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post #112 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 07:42 AM
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Quote:

Thanks for the link! I had no idea the DA-1000 was OEM'd so extensively in Europe. I think it was Hitachi-only here in the USA. I always loved the vertical loading with viewing window - I'd like to have a DVD or HD-DVD player like that - or, better yet, an HD-DVD player that was a top loader and looked like the Magnavision 8000 VLP disc player.

Ty C. :-)
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post #113 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 07:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crassp View Post

Todays all exclusives are paid and this reflect in actual sales software position; and after that ?

I think nobody needs to sign a contract to launch DVDs, for example.

You have to sign a contract to release pre-recorded Blu-ray discs or HD-DVD's?

Ty C. :-)
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post #114 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron Garman View Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v-kWAUYbZE

If only Blu Ray had such AWESOME marketing!

AJG

Obviously my post above was too large to actually read and comment on, but I had to say, this is one of the bestest links to Youtube in forever...

"You can even hook it up using the computer interface!"

Brilliant. The more things change...

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post #115 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 08:21 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:


But to estimate HD DVD's future based on the legacy market for LD is not a vaild argument.

I wasn't trying to make a valid argument. I was just trying to create a thread that would top 100 posts, and it worked!

The only real point I was trying to make is that no one really knows how long HD-DVD or Bluray will last. It's all guessing at this point, because the market is a larger, more complicated beast than it was 25 years ago. There are more variables today than when laserdisc was released, not including more potential customers.
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post #116 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 08:45 AM
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good point no one knows how the consumer will react.
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post #117 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Disclord View Post

You have to sign a contract to release pre-recorded Blu-ray discs or HD-DVD's?

I'd hope not, but it sure does seem that way. If not, why wouldn't every studio be releasing content for willing consumer on each side of the fence?
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post #118 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 09:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerx View Post

If were going to compare formats based on their popularity and run time then:
Having nothing to do with PQ/AQ

HD-DVD=CED
BLU-RAY=laserdisc
DVD=VHS
Divx=betamax
MUSE LD=DVHS
VCD=SVCD
TIVO=PVR

More accurately, you should equate Blu-ray with CED - and, of course, I am not talking about relative picture quality. Consumer LaserDisc was the HD-DVD of its day and Blu-ray was the CED VideoDisc.

CED, as a format, had much, much more hardware, software and retail support than LaserDisc did at the time (1981 to 1984). RCA was, of course, the CED format's inventor, but they also had Zenith, Sanyo, Toshiba, Hitachi, Sears, Wards, Penny's, Curtis Mathis, K-Mart, etc... either as licensees or exclusive retailers. Studio-wise, for software, RCA had every major studio on board, even LaserDisc's co-inventor, MCA/Universal Studios! (which infuriated us LD fans!) Plus, CBS/Fox built a CED mastering and pressing plant in Carrollton, GA for their own titles.

The general industry, press and public consensus (at the time) was the the RCA SelectaVision CED VideoDisc was THE VideoDisc format 'standard'. While the MCA/Philios Reflective Optical Videodisc (LaserDisc) was assured a continued place in industrial and government sectors due to its unique capabilities, as a consumer format, it was universally thought to be the flat-out format 'loser' against CED - and it would be just a short matter of time before the LD format was discontinued. Many people thought that day had come when Discovision Associates (IBM & MCA) announced the consumer-market shut-down and Philips didn't even step up to the plate to assure the consumer that they, by themselves, would continue support for the format.

LaserDisc had in its consumer-market hardware corner, Pioneer Video, Magnavox (Philips) and MCA/Universal Studios. That's was all. When IBM and MCA pulled the plug, Philips abandoned all R&D for new Magnavox players (they had an all-new, high-quality, 100% American-designed, player in the pipeline - the player was finished and pre-production units were rolling off the assembly line in Knoxville, TN). They also discontinued the Magnavox 8000 and 8005 VLP units and then licensed the Pioneer LD-1100, selling it under the Magnavox and Sylvania brand-names.

Studio support for LD in 1981 was MCA/Universal Studios, Paramount and a smattering of Columbia titles. The Paramount and Columbia titles were the first group of discs NOT released under the MCA DiscoVision label. LaserDisc first came to consumer market in December 1978 - and the Discovision Associates shut-down was announced in March 1981. At the time, and after 2 years on the market, the ENTIRE "in-print, now available" disc catalog amounted to less than 60 titles. If you count ALL titles released to date, even if discontinued, then the LD catalog was 'around' 200 titles. Even with Paramount, Warner, Columbia and others added, the Fall 1982 catalog had fewer than 300 titles available - and that's after 3(!) years on the market!

Oh, one thing - at the time, it was generally felt that CED and LD were pretty much comparable in picture and sound quality. LD disc quality was so variable that, often times, a CED disc DID look better than the LD counterpart. And RCA made it standard to use an IP for the video transfer and not a theatrical release print like DiscoVision and other studios generally used.

I could go on, but I'm probably boring you all. Still, it should be clear that Blu-ray is NOT like LaserDisc and HD-DVD is NOT like CED. It's the other way around.

Ty C. :-)
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post #119 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 10:24 AM
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VHS was primarily a rental format. Yes, eventually prices came down and people started collecting tapes, but not in great numbers. I think even the mass market understood that tape was fragile.

Laserdisc was primarily a retail format, aimed at collectors. Yes, eventually LD made it into rental bins in many video stores, but it was clearly a product aimed at well-heeled cinemaphiles.

DVD was the first home video format to combine both markets. That's why it's so immensely successful.

The market is getting ready to bifurcate again. The rental segment will move towards VOD, streaming, and other ephemeral distribution methods. It's obvious that such distribution offers enough advantages to the consumer that it will sweep rental of physical media away very quickly. All that's missing is a service that sells digital STB's for under $100 that can stream movies wirelessly over broadcast frequencies, so mass markets in cities can easily do VOD without a cable or satellite subscription.

Meanwhile, the collector segment will go HDM. How could it not? This is the market that wants the highest quality and the most content. This is the market with money to spend on players and large HD screens. This is the 21st century equivalent of the Laserdisc collector, unwilling to accept lower resolution, compression artifacts, compressed audio, etc.

What remains is to determine how big that collector segment will be, and one thing that will influence this is how quickly the industry can unify its product offerings into a single format. That, to me, is why ending the format war is so important. I want to see day-and-date releases of everything in HD, with no price premium, as soon as possible. That won't happen without volume sales, and volume sales won't happen unless the entire industry gets behind one format and pushes fast, hard, and soon.

I look at my LD sets of Wizard of Oz, Star Wars, T2, Abyss, etc., and remember what I paid for them, and shudder. That's something we should all be hoping to prevent from happening again.

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post #120 of 430 Old 01-21-2008, 10:31 AM
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Didn't know CED started off that well.
I've thought about picking up a few discs. Prehapps a player for collectors sake.
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