Originally Posted by DaveGee
Things that I'd bank on:
Cable/Broadcast TV Support
- No HDTV (QAM) Tuner
- No TIVOish Feature
- More than likely no TV Tuner at all
I'd agree with you here, but for different reasons. I think that Apple will try to disrupt the current model of content distribution of video in all forms. The era of the channel is dead. No need for tuners or time-shifted content. All content will be available 24/7. No commercials. PPV, buy to own, or subscription models and/or a new model will take over. All delivered over IP.
This would be the true undoing of the current model where the networks control content, the cable companies and satellite companies and advertisers deliver revenue and in conjunction with networks control viewing schedules, access to content, and even the content creation itself. Throw out the middlemen (tiered programming monopolists and their "bundled services" telecom partners), the advertisers, the networks, and work directly with the studios, producers, and alternative IP-based content aggregators (i.e. Google Video). Let good, creative content rise to the surface, as the rest of the network/cable channel produced, ad-supported pablum sinks in mediocrity.
Has anyone else wondered why the other major studios than Jobs-affiliated ones have yet to throw their content into the iTunes Store? It has nothing to do with DRM, and everything to do with who controls the direction of a new model of delivering content in the 21st century. The battles for control are starting to rage. But Apple has the technology, experience and vision to drive this beast. Jobs' experience with Pixar and now Disney combined with his leadership at Apple uniquely qualifies him as an individual quite capable of a total market disruption here. Watch the studios, networks and indy producers get on the bus when they see it start to leave town. They will all love Apple on one hand, as they did with the iPod and iTunes Music Store, and may loathe them on the other, as they don't like change from the tightly controlled media world they once owned, and are suspect of a future in which they don't ultimately control or create. Apple will hand over the reins to the consumers, who will choose what they want to see, and how they want to pay for it, opening the way for a new model.
And Apple has all of the pieces to put together such a scenario. It is just starting to unvei them and put them together. And it won't be totally obvious from the outset, and people will be confused by what they will perceive as the apparent misdirection of Apple. But I think that 2007, starting with Jobs' keynote, will set the stage for this disruption.
The era of the channel is over. Nielsen is dead.