Originally Posted by xenon2000
That link proves nothing to me. Maybe you can post a link to something specific.
I quoted/paraphrased the relevant parts.
The numbers there jive relatively closely with a report posted a few weeks/months ago that stated Epson said the market was 60,000. Perhaps that's just from the Taiwanese MFGs.
But many of the same chips are used in all 3 of those types.
That's exactly the problem. HT piggybacks on the heels of the corporate projection and large venue markets, the the high volume markets.
I think it is silly at this stage in the projector market to claim that the numbers for demand are too low to warrant manufacturing. Especially when a CIH chip could easily replace the current 16:9 1080p chips if they really wanted. Like when Intel just cripples a fast cpu to sell the same die to several markets.
As Bob points out, it's nothing like what Intel does.
So I still think a CIH native chip WILL come out. And honestly, who here wouldn't want and support such an idea? Trying to
Don't get me wrong, I would love to see 2.35:1 native projectors, especially 2560x1080 ones. Further, I do believe people would buy them, potentially a large portion of the HT market.
But I just don't think that's enough for TI, Epson, Sony, or JVC to retool a fab for such a limited-market product. I think our best hope is maybe 4k native panel machines that are masked to 2.35:1.
Originally Posted by adude
I agree, just 10000 units as HT projector market does not seem right. If we take LCD and DLP share half each, then 5000 DLP HT projectors. TI would have left this market long time back.
That's why a lot of members here have been very pessimistic about the the future of DLP in the HT market. HT projectors lived on the development of chips for the rear projection, corporate, and large venue market.
With the erosion of the high volume rear projection market, things have been very quiet from TI. No new chips since the DC4 DMD, and still very few machines using it.
The only noise from TI has been in the D Cinema market.
The number has to be bigger, else we would not have seen so many manufacturers in PJ market.
You notice most HT projectors are still
little more than slight tweaks on business/corporate/large venue models. Or to put it another way. The panels/chips used inside are the same ones that go into the high-volume products.
Originally Posted by xenon2000
And I completely disagree that a new CIH projector would cost more than an HE lens setup. When the lens alone can be $2k to $6k, then the motorized sled. And then the projector... very spendy. I am not spending that much money on sled and lens on top of my sub $3k projector.
It's not that they'd "cost" more, it's that they'd have to charge more to recoup the massive investment in fabrication facilities, and the HT market is a very small market to spread that cost over.
Just look at LED machines. LEDs are relatively cheap, and they can fit into relatively standard machines. Yet the R&D and fabrication changes have resulted in them only appearing in ~$15k+ machines (save the BenQ).
I see no reason to expect any different with a 2.35:1 native paneled projector.
Other than the electronic scaler for the extra resolution of 2540x1080, the projector would be practically the same. So I don't see how there is much extra cost to releasing a CIH native chip projector in this market of so many new models each year. I bet if Optoma and TI wanted, they could release a CIH projector within 1 year for under $3k. If they wanted to. And still make money.
No way TI would be able to retool for a 2.35:1 DMD and be able to make money in just the HT market at the <$3k price point.
Argue all you want. But why argue? Just 5 years ago I would never have thought a 1080p DLP projector would be less than $1000. And yet it is.
They'll probably come, but I'd be surprised if we see one in the next two years, and I'd be utterly shocked if it's <$10k.