Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 19 - AVS Forum
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post #541 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 10:14 AM
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Ok, time to bring Sony back into the picture, I'm Wii'ed out

Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #542 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 11:06 AM
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The Wii is not even relevant to the discussion unless MS is going to sell their next Console for $250 or less. It is just not the same is what Sony and Microsoft are doing.
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post #543 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 11:13 AM
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Nobody bit, so I'll take a stab at the game developement side of this conversation. I would love to see MS really lock up some incomplete or poorly executed titles from their first gen XBox and really do them right, to support the lauch of Nexgen. What comes immediately to mind is a sleeper game, "Advent Rising". I loved it! THat game had the very best storyline of any game I've played on XBox or the 360. I still remember its compelling story and characters. And I want more of them. I want to know what ultimately happened to them all. The story was a cross between Halo and Mass Effect. It had a better story than both. But it was so poorly constructed, rushed to market with so many glitches by Majesco, that it failed in the marketplace. It was supposed to be a 3 part story, and was written by a great sci-fi writer, Orson Scott Card. Even with all of the bugs. It is a classic! And I played it on PC and theXBox. The gamespy review on this link accurately describes the mess Majesco tossed in the marketplace.

http://pc.gamespy.com/pc/advent-rising/646808p1.html

Since all of the 3 parts have already been written, MS should lock up the IP for it and key games like it. Completely redo them in the format of Nexgen. And launch 1 massive retro game with all 3 segments included on 1 HD-DVD51, CHBDVD or Blu-Ray disc. Add exciting new story bridging content. Launch the same disc for the PC and build scalability into it. So XBox Live users can play against Windows Live users on All World MAPs and AI simulations (forges & etc). That way a user can always find some internet action to participate in (be it XBox Live or Windows Live). The same can be done for Halo 1 & 2, Halo 3 and ODST. Halo Wars and Reach. The Halo Wars and Reach game would be neat because it would feature 2 different gameplay formats (ala Nier), that could be converged in a very interesting way in a bridged story.

Kameo would be another good target. It was a surprisingly delightful game that was supposed to be a 3 parter. ANd I think MS still has creative control over RARE studios and the IP ( I may be wrong on that one).

My point is, there may be a lot of gold still left in those old titles if they are redone properly for the new system. And exciting new bridge ideas are added to the content. I would certainly buy them. And then MS could either extend the story telling in the new system or leave those versions as the landmark titles. New 1080p graphics. Faster framerates. Much longer games. More XBox Live options. It could be a big win for MS with Nexgen. I'd rather see that development more than backward compatibility.
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post #544 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 11:24 AM
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I really think backward compatibility becomes less and less important the further you go into the next generation. I could be completely wrong though.....me personally, I've got a ton of gamecube, xbox, and PS2 backlog that I can't even be bothered to clear at this point.

Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #545 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dragonyeuw View Post

I really think backward compatibility becomes less and less important the further you go into the next generation. I could be completely wrong though.....me personally, I've got a ton of gamecube, xbox, and PS2 backlog that I can't even be bothered to clear at this point.

BC is always hilarious to me. Everyone freaks out if a new console doesn't have it, but when it does they hardly ever play the old consoles titles anyway. I can see in the first 6 months the need for BC, but I can always keep the old console out for that short period of time.

Give me one great MP game at launch and I can pack up the 360 immediately. Hoping that we get a decent COD or Battlefield at launch so I won't be tempted to buy anymore 360/PS3 games. I would think it would be a priority for those franchises to get a game out around launch. If MS can get 5 million consoles into the market the first few months, I would think most would pick up one of those two series if available.

The next Xbox is too far away for me. I want it NOW!

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post #546 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 12:30 PM
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Do where have you guys been hiding all the corporate underground pics and videos? There's got to be schematics somewhere. Or at least a Microsoft letterhead with TOP SECRET on it.
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post #547 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbyrnes View Post

BC is always hilarious to me. Everyone freaks out if a new console doesn't have it, but when it does they hardly ever play the old consoles titles anyway. I can see in the first 6 months the need for BC, but I can always keep the old console out for that short period of time.

Give me one great MP game at launch and I can pack up the 360 immediately. Hoping that we get a decent COD or Battlefield at launch so I won't be tempted to buy anymore 360/PS3 games. I would think it would be a priority for those franchises to get a game out around launch. If MS can get 5 million consoles into the market the first few months, I would think most would pick up one of those two series if available.

The next Xbox is too far away for me. I want it NOW!

That's sort of my long winded point. I'd rather see them relaunch great titles from the archives with added content and twists, and move on with the new system. That should be very easy to do since they would not be developing from a blank canvass. And their Landmark titles would be available in the best possible light for their landmark console. It would also insure a lot of games availability at the start of the launch that are not very risky.
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post #548 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 12:57 PM
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I would bet the 720 (I am using this name because it is short and everyone knows what I am talking about, no matter how dumb the name) will be fully BC. MS and Nvidia ended on bad terms with the first Xbox so ATI should be the GPU maker. I would also think the architecture will be similar so it shouldn't be hard for the hardware to accomplish BC. If Sony moves away from Cell, they may a problem with BC (I think they will have no BC with PS3, PS2 & PSone will).

MS invested a lot of money in BC for Xbox and if they can avoid that they will.

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post #549 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 01:32 PM
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I agree it will be 100% BC.

Which is why I believe it will have an optical disc drive. But it wont be BR..

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post #550 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbexperience View Post

I agree but the average age could be getting thrown off by a lot of "older" gamers picking up the Wii. I know a lot of 50+ Wii users that may be throwing off the curve.

cant find any recent data... but these are from older articles.

"According to Nintendo of America, 79 percent of Wii gamers are males over the age of 18 and with an average income of $50,000 USD. More than half of that number game for more than five hours a week too.

Around half of the other household members who play on the Wii are almost the exact opposite of the previous audence; women over the age of 25, 65 percent of whom play for only two hours a week. "


and


"Contrary to popular belief, according to the man of kicking ass and taking names, the average age of Nintendo Wii owners is not below 13 or above 60. In a conference call, Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime said Wii owners are still mostly core gamers. (average age 29). "



Every person i've ever known with a wii was at least 24 years old, and I don't know any families with young children and the wii (but I do know families with young children and a 360, or a ps3, or both)... Most are party gamers, Wii sports and just dance, or Wii fit users.... Wife and I are late 20's, and our friends are similarly aged.

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post #551 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 02:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

no, it doesn't
all you did was twist each point (about the wii's ability to sell extremely well) to your agenda.

I don't have an agenda and I'm getting really sick of people saying that those of us that believe Microsoft will use or at least consider using blu-ray do. How many times do I have to say it before it's gonna sink in? Personally, I don't care. I'm buying a next Xbox regardless. I'd probably still buy one if it had DVD, even though that would be retarded. BUT I want the Xbox to be well supported by developers AND the userbase so that it can continue to be successful. I happen to think a small part of the way to do that is by using the blu-ray format.

Quote:


you actually never really made any arguments against the ability of the wii to sell extremely well, but rather why you want it included, even though it can be done without it

You can't argue a fact, and I'm not trying to. The Wii sold extremely well. That's in the past and is a fact. No doubt.

BUT, of those things, the first three have nothing to do with the Wii's success. The other reason it was successful was because of people who were suckered into the notion of motion gaming.

A system can be built that will lack HD graphics, won't play movies, doesn't try to be the entertainment hub, and is a low price. That's not the system Microsoft is trying to build.


Quote:


I don't follow how your points have anything to do with the wii, except for the argument that "it's not the wii".

so again, what is the point of the wii talk?

is it to prove that graphics aren't important?
is it to prove that playing physical disc movie media isn't important?
is it to prove that all-in-one entertainment (hub) isn't important?
is it to prove that price matters?
is it to prove that brand loyality matters?

all of this would point to MS foregoing BD

I don't think the intent of the Wii discussion was to prove anything. The Wii really isn't comparable to the Xbox.

My points didn't have anything to do with the Wii. The point of my post was that the exact opposite of all of those points is true (except for brand loyalty) for Microsoft (and Sony). If Microsoft was trying to build a Wii clone, then yeah, those points would be relevant and would point to skipping blu-ray. They've made it pretty clear that that isn't the system they're shooting for. Therefore, if you look at them from the perspective of the system Microsoft is trying to build, you can see why blu-ray is a viable option.

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post #552 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formulanerd View Post

cant find any recent data... but these are from older articles.

"According to Nintendo of America, 79 percent of Wii gamers are males over the age of 18 and with an average income of $50,000 USD. More than half of that number game for more than five hours a week too.

Around half of the other household members who play on the Wii are almost the exact opposite of the previous audence; women over the age of 25, 65 percent of whom play for only two hours a week. "


and


"Contrary to popular belief, according to the man of kicking ass and taking names, the average age of Nintendo Wii owners is not below 13 or above 60. In a conference call, Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime said Wii owners are still mostly core gamers. (average age 29). "



Every person i've ever known with a wii was at least 24 years old, and I don't know any families with young children and the wii (but I do know families with young children and a 360, or a ps3, or both)... Most are party gamers, Wii sports and just dance, or Wii fit users.... Wife and I are late 20's, and our friends are similarly aged.

I guess I'd just question how they gathered those numbers. Were they from Wii registrations?

I'd also argue the use of the term "core" gamers here. That term is normally not used as just an age bracket, but rather a way of thinking or a lifestyle. Gaming geeks, if you will. I'd bet that if someone got a collection of true core gamers and interviewed them you'd find that most either didn't have a Wii or didn't use it much.

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

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post #553 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbexperience View Post

I guess I'd just question how they gathered those numbers. Were they from Wii registrations?

I'd also argue the use of the term "core" gamers here. That term is normally not used as just an age bracket, but rather a way of thinking or a lifestyle. Gaming geeks, if you will. I'd bet that if someone got a collection of true core gamers and interviewed them you'd find that most either didn't have a Wii or didn't use it much.


right, and i agree, and i also have no idea where to get current or accurate data... but i dont think the assumption that little kids are all playing zelda and mario are very accurate.... a majority of the fans/players of those specific games are still nintendo era kids... just grown up... i'd say born between 75 and 88

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post #554 of 7006 Old 03-31-2011, 03:39 PM
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I know several people of varying ages (up to 60) that have a wii. I don't know any that have played it more than a few times total. From what I saw in my circles, I guess it was kind of like a fad. Someone saw it at a party or something, thought it was cool/novel, decided it was cheap enough to get one to show some of their other friends or whatever, and then quickly realized the only time it would be played is at parties, and really, not even then. It's like the face altering apps in the app store. You get it, show your friends, it's alright, and then you never use it again. That sort of thing.

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post #555 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 10:03 AM
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Sorry to take the talk back to Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD51 in the new XBox. But it appears Blu-Ray has a growing capacity problem. http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu032111.htm. This could be a very big deal if it projects into 2012-2014. The big Sony DADC facility in Terre Haute Indiana is stretched to the Max on Blu-Ray Capacity. Obviously 1080p Blu-Ray games (except for Sony's) will get the short end of the stick on this deal because of priority rights with the movie studios. On the other side. DVD producers can easily add capacity to produce HD-DVD lines for 1080p HD games for XBox nexgen and the PC, while still adding new revenue stream capacity in their existing DVD 720p-1080p game lines. I respect the opinion of those who see Blu-Ray as the best option for MS. Even though I profoundly disagree with them. I just think HD-DVD is by far the better choice for MS from a technical, commercial, brand, and profit standpoint. They would literally have their own dedicated HD production capacity with all of the DVD producers (who far outnumber Blu-Ray). Even though, admittedly, I will buy the nexgenBox regardless of what drive is in it.

Addition:
Those Blu-Ray producers will be reluctant to invest in big capacity bumps with the uncertainty in the economy along with potential technology shifts that many of the supporters of Blu-Ray have stated in this thread (DD, Streaming & etc). The only way they would do it right now would be if the retail market decided to close out DVD sales and sell only Blu-Ray. Obviously this is not going to happen with DVD being 70% plus of their Movie disc sales. They and the studios would be commiting suicide doing that. So Blu-Ray will continue on its healthy growth curve. But as a niche market platform for HD Movies and (perhaps) Sony PS3 games.
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post #556 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:02 PM
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What that tells me is demand for BluRay is higher than everyone is estimating.


Edit:
Here's the same story from a different source with a little more research:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...tfall-q4-23380


You seem sold on HDDVD, but I'm not. I think both techs are about equal in chances of making it into the xbox. Low.

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post #557 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:21 PM
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equal chance?

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post #558 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yrd View Post

What that tells me is demand for BluRay is higher than everyone is estimating.


Edit:
Here's the same story from a different source with a little more research:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...tfall-q4-23380


You seem sold on HDDVD, but I'm not. I think both techs are about equal in chances of making it into the xbox. Low.

So what do you think the more likely solution is to either of those? If I had to guess I'd say 60% chance blu-ray, 35% chance HD-DVD, and 5% no disc drive.

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post #559 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:32 PM
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I'd say (and remember, HD DVD is not the HD DVD you're thinking of, where it's meant as a movie format to compete with BD)

65% HD DVD (a form of; something very near to; a proprietary format)
25% No Drive
10% BD

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post #560 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:34 PM
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60% something else
30% hddvd based disc, games only, dvd video compatible
5% blu
5% download only

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post #561 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:39 PM
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I thought this was pretty fun to read.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...onsole-rumours

Hopefully the devs can pressure them into releasing new systems.

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post #562 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yrd View Post

What that tells me is demand for BluRay is higher than everyone is estimating.


Edit:
Here's the same story from a different source with a little more research:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...tfall-q4-23380


You seem sold on HDDVD, but I'm not. I think both techs are about equal in chances of making it into the xbox. Low.

I am very much sold on HD-DVD. It is just as excellent as Blu-Ray to me. I own 2 awesome Toshiba HD-A135 HDDVD players and at least 100 HD-DVD movies. But here is the truth. I equally love Blu-Ray DVD. I have 2 awesome Blu-Ray players. The Pannasonic BD85 and Sony PS3. I have at least 100 Blu-Ray movies. I own the MS XBox 360. I prefer it overwhelmingly to my PS3 for games and XBox Live. It is the one I play 90% of the time. I could care less if MS did not include Blu-Ray in the NexBox. Frankly I would prefer HD-DVd for the games and compatibility with my old HDDVD movies, if my toshiba's go kaplooey. I just think it is a much smarter business decision for MS to go with their own system that has much more native production capacity and cheaper build rate without sacrificing any technical advantages.

I really don't know why anyone would be cheering for a capacity constrained system to win in the gaming disc format market. Limited capacity always equal Higher commercial prices. Are people who are cheering for Blu-Ray also cheering for $80-$90 games? And DVD itself isn't going anywhere soon.
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post #563 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 01:13 PM
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It may be capacity strained right now. But no one is releasing a new system this year. If there are issues with production they will meet it. That means more people are buying BluRay.

Here's the extra research from the article I posted:

Quote:


Andy Parsons, SVP of corporate communications and new product planning for Pioneer and chair of the Blu-ray Disc Association, said he couldn’t agree or disagree with Bottoms’ findings.

“However, I remember very similar concerns being raised about three years ago once it became clear we would have a single high-def format in the market,” he noted. “If these latest concerns pan out, I expect that the industry would rise to the challenge just as it did then.”

Paula Tait, EVP of sales and marketing for replication and packaging company Precise/Full Service Media, agreed that current Blu-ray capacity concerns sound similar to the early days of DVD.

“I will say that I haven’t heard any rumors during the past 12 months where content owners couldn’t get their Blu-ray titles manufactured in a timely manner,” she said. “We have not experienced such a demand for Blu-ray that we weren’t able to meet commitments for delivery.”


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post #564 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 01:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

I really don't know why anyone would be cheering for a capacity constrained system to win in the gaming disc format market. Limited capacity always equal Higher commercial prices. Are people who are cheering for Blu-Ray also cheering for $80-$90 games? And DVD itself isn't going anywhere soon.



Also, how on earth do you come up with a $30 price increase to games? Because they can't meet demand? That doesn't make sense at all. They didn't increase the price on the Wii because they couldn't supply enough of them. That's second hand sales capitalizing on it.

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post #565 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Yrd View Post

Also, how on earth do you come up with a $30 price increase to games? Because they can't meet demand? That doesn't make sense at all. They didn't increase the price on the Wii because they couldn't supply enough of them. That's second hand sales capitalizing on it.

Price Increase?! Wellll, to not make sense, they sure are having fun doing it already.
1. Halo Reach Launch price=$59.99-$69.99
2. Addons, Map Packs, new campaigns etc=$9.99-$19.99 each
3. Total new game costs with all of the whooza's=$70-$90

You can duplicate this model for just about every single new game launched that is successful in the marketplace. I'm talking about capacity constraints. Not price increases. Erstwhile known as locking in that high cost model that you seem to think will magically go away when the whole world is Blu_Ray only. Don't let inconvenient facts get in the way of my bias please, seem to be what you are implying here. In the MS HDDVD model they could even have the option to lower game prices (not keep them at the current high rates). And be just as profitable. They certainly wouldn't be capital or profit constrained. Have you bought gasoline for your car recently? Are the prices much higher than they were a year ago. That's capacity constaint. Albeit brought on by war and speculation in this case. But it works pretty much the same in every market. And you are just guesstimating with your increased production assumption yourself. You or I don't know the nature of their capacity constraint. Nor how long it is anticipated to endure. You just assume they'll fix it. Well, if I was MS and I didn't need it whatsoever for my next system. I wouldn't plan on it or count on it.
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post #566 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 01:57 PM
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It is my opinion that the chance the next gen console does not have a physical media drive is comfortably under 1%, and that is a fact!

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post #567 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 02:14 PM
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Here's another tidbit YRD. I worked on the initial development team that brought the Food & Beverage ingredient, NutraSweet to market in the 1980's. We planned Capacity Constraints into our business & profit model to keep our selling prices artificially high for the 17 year life of the patents. Any company anywhere in the world will do this if they think they have a competitive stranglehold on a market. You seem to think Sony and the Blu-Ray Group love us consumers so much, they won't. Maybe they are already doing it. And that may be what this canard is all about. Maybe it is not demand driven as you suggest. But business model driven like my NutraSweet gang. You or I don't know. But I do know this. The silver bullet for capacity constraint is always healthy competition. And on that basis I'M cheering robustly for MS to chose something other than Blu-Ray Disc. My preference has already been stated several times on this thread.
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post #568 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 02:25 PM
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I 100% felt more comfortable with the DVD Forum continuing on as the physical media leader (with HD DVD). they had been together for years, were proven, and we'd be in good hands.

god help us if Sony controls it all

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post #569 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Here's another tidbit YRD. I worked on the initial development team that brought the Food & Beverage ingredient, NutraSweet to market in the 1980's. We planned Capacity Constraints into our business & profit model to keep our selling prices artificially high for the 17 year life of the patents. Any company anywhere in the world will do this if they think they have a competitive stranglehold on a market. You seem to think Sony and the Blu-Ray Group love us consumers so much, they won't. Maybe they are already doing it. And that may be what this canard is all about. Maybe it is not demand driven as you suggest. But business model driven like my NutraSweet gang. You or I don't know. But I do know this. The silver bullet for capacity constraint is always healthy competition. And on that basis I'M cheering robustly for MS to chose something other than Blu-Ray Disc. My preference has already been stated several times on this thread.

As you said, EVERY company does that. Microsoft will probably do it even if they choose to go HD-DVD. Secondly, a revived HD-DVD format from Microsoft for the next Xbox would not be a competitor to blu-ray. Blu-ray's main market is still movies. You're not anticipating that they'd try to use HD-DVD as a movie format, right?

I also wanted to point out that the price of games will only go up until the market demands it to come down. They could sell games for $49.99 now like they did last generation, but they don't because we're apparently ok paying $59.99. I wouldn't be surprised if the standard for new games (regardless of format) next generation was $69.99.

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

"If the Playstation and Xbox are like the Bloods and the Crips, then the Wii is whatever gang Sha Na Na was in" - Christian Finnegan
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post #570 of 7006 Old 04-01-2011, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

I 100% felt more comfortable with the DVD Forum continuing on as the physical media leader (with HD DVD). they had been together for years, were proven, and we'd be in good hands.

god help us if Sony controls it all

Don't worry, Sony's not even close to controlling the whole of the Blu-ray Disc Association: Membership

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

"If the Playstation and Xbox are like the Bloods and the Crips, then the Wii is whatever gang Sha Na Na was in" - Christian Finnegan
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