Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 22 - AVS Forum
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post #631 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ballen420 View Post

Out of curiosity then, if there's been no change for you, no change for me and my friends, and no change for BB, where are all these changes taking place? Is there something going on that we don't know about?

why would something change, for someone who doesn't need it? the fact that things aren't changing for us (me, you, your friends), means we've come along way the past 5 years or more. the change is occurring for those that are less fortunate. I would image these are people you don't know, and wouldn't notice the change because it's not applicable to you. as time goes on, there are fewer and fewer less fortunate. and as everyone is approaching that position, we get to a point where MS could potentially go optical drive-less

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post #632 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 12:52 PM
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No offense to BB, but I look at 3 mbps down/512 kbps up to be part of the less fortunate crowd, and he probably is part of the average to most fortunate crowd.

Again, I'm not disagreeing with you over time, I just don't think 2-3 years is adequate enough. Also, there may be some giant initiative in place that's goal is to have broadband access of 3 mbps down/512 kbps up in 80% of the country by 2015, but I'm just not aware of that. That type of information goes further than me just believing that it's going to happen.

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post #633 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

actually no, there has been no change for me also

but there didn't need to be.

see here's the thing, I'm not talking/worried about me, I'm thinking about the whole picture (everyone else). all your posts are me me me

HA! You're a funny, if terribly misinformed, person. I've spoken in generalities and sometimes used my situation(s) as examples.

Here's the reality: The average download speed for the nation as of December 2010 was 3 mbps (http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...net_speed.html). At that rate it would take 22.25 HOURS to download a 30 GB game. And that's with no overhead figured in. Even if that speed were to somehow double over the next 3 or so years, it would still take a little over 11 hours to download the same game.

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post #634 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by bbexperience View Post

HA! You're a funny, if terribly misinformed, person. I've spoken in generalities and sometimes used my situation(s) as examples.

Here's the reality: The average download speed for the nation as of December 2010 was 3 mbps (http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...net_speed.html). At that rate it would take 22.25 HOURS to download a 30 GB game. And that's with no overhead figured in. Even if that speed were to somehow double over the next 3 or so years, it would still take a little over 11 hours to download the same game.

hmm, I wonder how many hours it takes for amazon to ship me a game

I'm too terribly misinformed to figure it out

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post #635 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

If your comment is in reaction to mine directly above yours. Then you sir are being quite hypocritical. Because if nothing else, you have filled these pages with your wants, wishes, preference, opinions and biases about MS nexgen system.

I have yet to put a single comment here about what "I want". If you can find a single quote from this thread from me that starts with anything remotely like "I like this and I want MS to do that", go right ahead. You won't find any. You and others have done that plenty, I have not.

What I have done from the beginning is to state what MS is going to do. Not based on what I want, but based on what they have done so far and what they have announced, planned, rumored, etc.

I am a collector like many here. I still have all my game discs and cartridges going decades back. I personally prefer an optical disk for archiving purposes, but it does not matter what I want, because MS does not care what I personally want.

Microsoft goes by classic 80/20 rule. Go for the 80% case scenario, don't worry about the 20. If you have to make a call, always make the call for 80%.

Microsoft is planning to feature DD as THE preferred method (80% scenario) of obtaining games. That is a fact. Whether or not how much they want to accommodate those without high speed Internet is still in flux. But based on Microsoft's past actions, if they have to make a call, they will make a call on where things are heading and not where things are today, which is why I think it is more likely than not that there won't be an optical drive. Would it surprise me if the next gen included an optical drive? Probably not, but I am betting that it won't.

BR is still not happening no matter what.
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post #636 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 01:09 PM
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I guess we can end this thread now. Gameboy has all the answers.

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post #637 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ballen420 View Post

I guess we can end this thread now. Gameboy has all the answers.

well, not if that's sarcasm we can't

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post #638 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post


Microsoft is planning to feature DD as THE preferred method (80% scenario) of obtaining games. That is a fact.

Credible link please.

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post #639 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:08 PM
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Online access will be a requirement for next generation. The 720 will have nothing more than a DVD player. Microsoft will snail mail you the majority of the game content which you must send back to them by snail mail. You then get a code to download the game engine and code, kinda sorta like steam. They will have to do this because of caps and all that jazz rearing it's fugly head in the near future.
Oh and no more waiting in line for a launch 720. No store will carry it. Microsoft will ship it too you.
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post #640 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

hmm, I wonder how many hours it takes for amazon to ship me a game

I'm too terribly misinformed to figure it out

I get your point, but I wonder how long it takes me to go to Best Buy and pick up a game on release day? Oh wait, it's 30 minutes, round trip!

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

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post #641 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcadia88 View Post

Online access will be a requirement for next generation. The 720 will have nothing more than a DVD player. Microsoft will snail mail you the majority of the game content which you must send back to them by snail mail. You then get a code to download the game engine and code, kinda sorta like steam. They will have to do this because of caps and all that jazz rearing it's fugly head in the near future.
Oh and no more waiting in line for a launch 720. No store will carry it. Microsoft will ship it too you.

The really funny part about that is that if they did do download only, that could happen.

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post #642 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by coyote_5 View Post

Credible link please.

Haven't you heard? If gameboy says it, that makes it fact! Do not question the great and mighty wizard!

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

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post #643 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by bbexperience View Post

I get your point, but I wonder how long it takes me to go to Best Buy and pick up a game on release day? Oh wait, it's 30 minutes, round trip!

I get your point, but I wonder how many people have jobs or school, and can't go to Best Buy and pick up the game on release day until after that

meanwhile, with DD
the game is either ready to go already downloaded on release day, or worse case scenerio it's downloading while you are at work/school unable to play anyways.

that's why I used amazon as an example instead of Best Buy

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post #644 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:41 PM
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BR could very easily happen. Microsoft is going to launch a next gen system with Blu Ray or without it. If they go with it, they get the advantage of a defacto standard and the ability to produce BD discs at lots and lots of places around the world. Sony would be retarded not to take the deal, since every system Microsoft sells would put $$$ in Sonys pocket. By the time the next system ships, BD will just be the "high def standard".

If Microsoft opts out of doing BD, they can go with an HDDVD-like structure, but then they have to tool up fabrication plants to print the discs, unless the DVD places are still capable of producing HDDVD's......even so, that is a lot less capacity to get discs created, and since the next Microsoft system will indeed be popular, they'll need the ability to crank out games to get them into stores.

Or offer them as DD.

Either way, we'll get our games.

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post #645 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:43 PM
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If you have attended any talk given by Microsoft in this subject over last several years, you would know that the commitment to DD is real and has been very consistent.
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post #646 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by HeadRusch View Post

BR could very easily happen.

Haven't you read anything. No matter what happens, Blu-ray is not happening.

It's a FACT. Our time traveling friend has told us so.

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post #647 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

I get your point, but I wonder how many people have jobs or school, and can't go to Best Buy and pick up the game on release day until after that

meanwhile, with DD
the game is either ready to go already downloaded on release day, or worse case scenerio it's downloading while you are at work/school unable to play anyways.

that's why I used amazon as an example instead of Best Buy

I'd think most people (even those with jobs or school or kids or whatever else) can make it to the store if they wanted to pick a game up.

The real point is that you're taking away that instant gratification purchase. It's the psychology of a lot of people. They want to go and have it right now, even though they could start downloading it the day before. In the end, they'd have it at the same time, but in one scenario they wait a day and in the other they have it now.

It would be interesting if some group did a study to see what percentage of people chose each method of delivery. There's currently not any good examples of this in the marketplace that I can think of. Netflix and Hulu are obvious choices against buying at a store, but it isn't an exact match because the pricing is different (subscription vs per unit).

I think you could do a study using blu-ray sized movies as your content though. You'd start with a large and technologically diverse group of movie lovers. You'd then offer them two options with the understanding that the quality would be exactly the same regardless of which option they chose:
  • Option 1: Buy the movie on Monday, with the knowledge that they'd get it in an electronic format and they would have to wait until Tuesday to be able to watch it.
  • Option 2: Buy the movie on Tuesday, with the knowledge that they'd get it in a disc format and be able to watch it that day.

I don't really consider myself a 'need it now' type of person. Thinking of new releases, if I'm buying on or near release day, I normally buy my games from Amazon or Newegg. The exceptions would be if I have Best Buy or Target gift cards or if someplace has a good sale. And keep in mind that Amazon is nice because they usually provide release day shipping if you preorder. So for me, given the two options above I think I'd pick option 2 but my reasons would have more to do with the download clogging my internet connection and me wanting a physical disc. Maybe the reasons would be different but I don't think I'd be alone in choosing that, but I could be wrong.

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post #648 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

If you have attended any talk given by Microsoft in this subject over last several years, you would know that the commitment to DD is real and has been very consistent.

The argument has never been that they don't have a commitment to a download model. The argument has been that that method, by itself, won't be feasible by the next generation.

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post #649 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 03:25 PM
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No one, including me, has said DD would be the only method. DD will be the MAIN (i.e. preferred) delivery medium. If you are arguing about that, I am afraid you are arguing by yourself. There will be another method for those not connected, but that does not require an optical disk.

BR is still not happening.
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post #650 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 03:30 PM
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Of course DD is preferred, they get to cut out the middle man and rape you with a monopoly. I'll stick to physical media for as long as possible. Stores get to compete and lower prices very aggressively. Then I can gift, sell or trade in my purchase. But some of you are so eager to give MS your cash, it's like a cult sometimes.

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post #651 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 03:44 PM
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tga, that ship has already sailed with iPhone, Android, and Windows Phone. They have proven that you can be very very successful selling DD only.

Which is why I don't think optical disk will be in the next gen. They are going to make the physical medium fairly painful (experience/price) compared to DD so that vast majority will choose DD over a physical copy on the shelves.

Again, no one is saying that this is what people around here wants. But this is what MS is going to do.
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post #652 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

If you have attended any talk given by Microsoft in this subject over last several years, you would know that the commitment to DD is real and has been very consistent.

Of course, commitment to DD is real.....everyone does it now. Microsoft would be stupid not to do it. Giving your market the ability to download games is a huge plus, as Steam can attest to.

But limiting your market by ONLY offering games as downloads, especially when we are talking about Next Generation games that may take up 10+ gigabytes compressed, that would be fiscal suicide. Microsoft would be eliminating a huge, huge portion of installed user base as there are many, many, many users on slow broadband where a download of that size could take a Day or more of full bandwidth....

Here's an example of why it wont be DD only: Many, many many games are sold "on sale"....EB Games, Gamestop, BestBuy all advertise sales, and plaster the names of manufacturers on their flyers or in their ads...

Do you really think that Microsoft is going to give UP the ability to plaster their name all over those Sunday Flyers or online advertising? If Sony and Nintendo are there, but Microsoft isn't......well guess what, Microsoft is going to slowly be forgotten about.

Next scenario: Do you think Grandma and Grampa are going to know how to "GIFT" a $50 game to little Junior's NextBox? Hells no! They are going to go to Best Buy, pick up a box, ask "Is this the one he wants? Are you sure?" and slip it under the xmas tree.

DD is going to be an option, sure. But it wont be the only distribution method. And if it is, the 720 or Nextbox is going to be Microsofts PS3
(Or Nintendos VirtualBoy).

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post #653 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 03:58 PM
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Exactly who is arguing that it will be DD only??????? Why do people keep quoting things that no one has actually said?
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post #654 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 04:02 PM
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Since everyone on this thread has said "yeah DD is going to be there" and you keep driving home the fact that Microsoft is "DD COMMITTED!", you seem to be the guy who thinks it will be DD only

Optical Discs or the unit will fail utterly. Go into store, get virtually indestructible disc that costs about 2 cents to manufacture in volume, and send home a happy customer.

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post #655 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 04:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Exactly who is arguing that it will be DD only??????? Why do people keep quoting things that no one has actually said?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Which is why I don't think optical disk will be in the next gen. They are going to make the physical medium fairly painful (experience/price) compared to DD so that vast majority will choose DD over a physical copy on the shelves.

Please let us know what medium they will be using for physical distribution. I'd like to see if I can get some insider information on this so I can invest accordingly.

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post #656 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

I have yet to put a single comment here about what "I want". If you can find a single quote from this thread from me that starts with anything remotely like "I like this and I want MS to do that", go right ahead. You won't find any. You and others have done that plenty, I have not.

What I have done from the beginning is to state what MS is going to do. Not based on what I want, but based on what they have done so far and what they have announced, planned, rumored, etc.

I am a collector like many here. I still have all my game discs and cartridges going decades back. I personally prefer an optical disk for archiving purposes, but it does not matter what I want, because MS does not care what I personally want.

Microsoft goes by classic 80/20 rule. Go for the 80% case scenario, don't worry about the 20. If you have to make a call, always make the call for 80%.

Microsoft is planning to feature DD as THE preferred method (80% scenario) of obtaining games. That is a fact. Whether or not how much they want to accommodate those without high speed Internet is still in flux. But based on Microsoft's past actions, if they have to make a call, they will make a call on where things are heading and not where things are today, which is why I think it is more likely than not that there won't be an optical drive. Would it surprise me if the next gen included an optical drive? Probably not, but I am betting that it won't.

BR is still not happening no matter what.

Gameboy:
I'm not remotely interested in proving you wrong just to make a point. I'm not even taking your bait to scour this thread looking for a mistake just to embarrass you. All I am suggesting is that you can communicate your opinion very clearly. But can't seem to receive mine and some others without scarcasm and insult. I try hard not to retaliate, because this is such a wonderful conversation with everybody (including you), who obviously have passion about this wonderful system called XBox. But I highly recommend we keep all of this speculation friendly and tolerant of everyone's pov. Argue the points of difference without name calling and anyone will accept that. Regardless whether we think someone is correct or not.

I actually agree with you that DD is going to be a big part of the NEXBox. It is a big part of the XBox 360 right now. But I believe MS will leverage that service along with many others that will create a lot of profit and revenue streams for them off the new platform. I predict DD will just be one of many like it is now.
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post #657 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 05:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

tga, that ship has already sailed with iPhone, Android, and Windows Phone. They have proven that you can be very very successful selling DD only.

Which is why I don't think optical disk will be in the next gen. They are going to make the physical medium fairly painful (experience/price) compared to DD so that vast majority will choose DD over a physical copy on the shelves.

Again, no one is saying that this is what people around here wants. But this is what MS is going to do.

Are you really trying to compare the Nexbox DD system to smart phones? EVERY smartphone is connected to the internet and the files are small enough to download them in seconds to minutes. A 10 GB game will take much longer to download (plus the other 100 reasons that have been stated multiple times).

I would be completely shocked if the Nexbox didn't have an optical drive. I strongly believe it will be 100% backwards compatible with Xbox (emulation) and 360 (hardware). Whether the Nexbox games are delivered that way, who knows. BC is a large enough reason to include at least a DVD drive.

I cannot see how MS can ship a console without a physical disc. Sony will continue with BR in the PS4 and not having physical games will hurt MS business. Electric cars are the future, but if GM stopped making internal combustion engines they would fail miserably. The infrastructure for electric cars is not there yet. Until everyone can pull into an electric charge station to "fill up", all car makers will trickle out electric cars until the world can handle them. Hell the power grid couldn't put out enough power to fill that huge need. It will be a gradual change with electric cars, just like it will be gradual during the next console gen. I think it will start out with physical media and MS will give incentive to DD titles.

Gameboy you keep making statements, push many off as FACT, and then never follow up with actual credible info or even expand on your ideas to give them a chance to make sense. Please explain how MS will pull off the DD only model. You can't just say that and not have a system of how it can be pulled off. That is just one example of the many things you have said in this thread that you never try to sell to us. Many statements make no sense from any perspective (MS, business, customer, etc.). I am willing to listen, but give me something to think about and dissect. Many posters give you reasons why they don't think your ideas can happen and you ignore them.

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post #658 of 7006 Old 04-06-2011, 10:58 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by HeadRusch View Post
virtually indestructible disc
What? Are you kidding me?

The Xbox 360 CD's are horrible in the fact of them always getting scratched up. That is one thing that I really dislike about Xbox. At least with the PS3, the games have that protective coating on them, and they don't get scratched as much.


No, we do not need any optical disks in the next 360. I say they package a media stick in the box, (32 gigs flash memory), and you give it to a retailer along with your money, any time you are buying a game, the game comes with an identical flash card that already has the game pre-installed on it. You take the flash card, plug it into the 720, and copy the game to the internal hard drive. The media stick is then automatically erased during the transfer process, and you set it aside for the next time you need to buy the game.
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post #659 of 7006 Old 04-07-2011, 03:47 AM
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Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #660 of 7006 Old 04-07-2011, 06:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post
What? Are you kidding me?

The Xbox 360 CD's are horrible in the fact of them always getting scratched up. That is one thing that I really dislike about Xbox. At least with the PS3, the games have that protective coating on them, and they don't get scratched as much.


No, we do not need any optical disks in the next 360. I say they package a media stick in the box, (32 gigs flash memory), and you give it to a retailer along with your money, any time you are buying a game, the game comes with an identical flash card that already has the game pre-installed on it. You take the flash card, plug it into the 720, and copy the game to the internal hard drive. The media stick is then automatically erased during the transfer process, and you set it aside for the next time you need to buy the game.
So I can only buy one game at a time, or I have to own several Flash cards?
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