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post #61 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 01:40 PM
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I'm not sure a game publisher needs a kit at this point - at least not for the XBOX. They can code their games against an established set of APIs (DirectX 11 or some third party engine like Unreal) and when the XBOX SDK for the new console is available - a little porting and a recompile should get them going.

While they can't count on any particular feature being available it's a fair assumption that alot of the new features not currently available on the XBOX will be made available. If it's not they can choose to not ship the game on that platform, or gimp it so it looks crappier

As for a 2012 to 2013 release date for a new console - I think it's totally possible - Especially for Microsoft. They sign non disclosure agreements with other companies all the time - usually enforced with huge financial penalties - its in everyone's best interest to keep things tight lipped


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post #62 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 01:56 PM
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I am all for faster dashboard. Current one makes me want to slash my wrist everytime I have to pull it up to accept game invites or send game invites. Messaging got better since I use the computer to get on xbox.com/live and send/receive messages.

The PS3 is quite efficient at doing this.

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post #63 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 04:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dragonyeuw View Post

4-5 years may be pushing it. I'd say 2-3 is more likely.

Not when shipping Kinect was about as much time and money wise equivalent to shipping a new console.

The game that take advantage of Kinect's true capability won't even hit the market for another year or two.

Microsoft will milk Kinect for all its worth.
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post #64 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by darthjames View Post

As for a 2012 to 2013 release date for a new console - I think it's totally possible - Especially for Microsoft. They sign non disclosure agreements with other companies all the time - usually enforced with huge financial penalties - its in everyone's best interest to keep things tight lipped

Anything is possible.

But a new console in 2013 is not likely and 2012 is out of the question. The earliest possible is 2014 and 2015 is more likely.
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post #65 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Anything is possible.

But a new console in 2013 is not likely and 2012 is out of the question. The earliest possible is 2014 and 2015 is more likely.

Be careful. Notice Darthjames is from Redmond WA and may know a thing or 2 about this one. My be slipping us an inside straight here. Anyway, i hope he is.
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post #66 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Not when shipping Kinect was about as much time and money wise equivalent to shipping a new console.

The game that take advantage of Kinect's true capability won't even hit the market for another year or two.

Microsoft will milk Kinect for all its worth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Anything is possible.

But a new console in 2013 is not likely and 2012 is out of the question. The earliest possible is 2014 and 2015 is more likely.

First off they made a profit just selling the Kinect, unlike the 360 which took a few years. It may have been as large as a console launch, but it was making money right from the start. You are also assuming the Kinect is a 360 only peripheral. If it works on the new Xbox with complete 360 backwards compatibility, you piss off no one. In fact you may make a lot of people happy that their new Kinect works with the new Xbox. A Kinect 2 could come out in a few years to replace the original and bump New Xbox sales. Whatever great games come out in the future would work on both consoles. This would be the best way to milk the Kinect.

It sounds like you are assuming most people buy the new console the second it comes out. Not even close to true. The vast majority of sales will come after the new console comes out. Once the 360 hits the $99 mark the sales will go through the roof. I assume you come to this forum because you are a tech guy and are in the early adopter crowd. Nothing wrong with that, but most people do not think like us.

I bought a 360 at launch and I was the only person I knew who had one for an entire year. A few more people got them during the second full year, and by the third year most of my gamer friends had one. Early on the value of a new console just isn't there. Top price for the console and a trickle of games for at least a year. I love it but most don't. They would rather wait until there are a bunch of games out, especially old games they can buy cheap.

I strongly believe we will have a console by 2013. I am actually thinking 2012 is the year. 2012 is 7 years from the 360 launch. That is a VERY long time between consoles. If they were planning a 10 year life cycle of the 360 that would also make sense. 3 years to support an older console seems about right.

I am at the point now where I am getting tired of the same old, same old. This happens to me every generation and my longing for a new console gen kills my desire to play the current gen. I can easily see by this time next year having no desire to play games. A few games like Skyrim and Battlefield 3 have my interest, but many of the other games just seem like rehashes of games I have played a hundred times. Time to move on to the next systems IMO.

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post #67 of 7006 Old 03-15-2011, 05:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Be careful. Notice Darthjames is from Redmond WA and may know a thing or 2 about this one. My be slipping us an inside straight here. Anyway, i hope he is.

There are other places to work in Redmond, WA. Like Whole Foods, Target, Bill the Butcher, Nintendo, 7-11, Safeway.. etc


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post #68 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Not when shipping Kinect was about as much time and money wise equivalent to shipping a new console.

The game that take advantage of Kinect's true capability won't even hit the market for another year or two.

Assuming they make Kinect compatible with xbox 720, I don't see that being an issue. 4-5 years from now is 2015-16. No way we're going to have an 11 year old xbox 360 still running around without it's successor out long before that. Hell xbox still utilizes dvd storage, by 2015 I want to see games that maximize blu-ray capacity, and I'm sure the developers are keen to move past the limits of dvd like yesterday.

My money is on xmas 2013, 2014 at the absolute latest.

Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #69 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 09:16 AM
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I completely agree with you Dragonyeuw. With this caveat. To utilize that added Blu-Ray game capacity, I not only want to see new game ideas. I also want to see many of the older games redone from a totally fresh new perspective. By that I mean, enhanced story detail, Hidden plot twists, unforseen circumstances and possibilities, new character introductions. new technology utilization with superior game engines. Zero glitches. Bigger and much longer stories. This would work very well for games done in 2-3 part series like Mass Effect, Halo, Ninja Gaiden, Fable and others. With Blu-Ray, a developer could redo Halo 1-3, Wars, ODST and Reach all on 1 disc and in the proper sequence. Thay could add exciting bridging story/gameplay content. And they could creatively exploit the different gameplay styles of all 4 games across all of the platforms with new content. And as an added benefit, you would get to replay key aspects of the older games in a totally new system with new modern graphics/content.

It just appears to me that with the new system, the game developers don't necessarily have to reinvent the storytelling wheel. They have vast libraries of IP that worked or was poorly executed. Give us and a new audience of gamers, those stories in a much better way. One that is free of the tech & commercial restrictions of the prior releases. Filmmakers do movies like this very successfully. True Grit, Tron, The Thomas Crown Affair are a few examples of this. I suspect this approach would be much more successful with games. Fable 1,2,3 would be awesome if redone like that along with a final reincarnation/full explanation of Jack of Blades (was he the Devil?). That is the main reason I support all commenters who say put a Blu-Ray or equivalent drive in the new XBox.
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post #70 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 09:52 AM
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Who said next Xbox will have a drive, Blu-Ray or otherwise?

Anybody who is expecting the next Xbox in 2012 will be severely disapointed. Far as MS is concerened, they have shipped a new console already. It is called Kinect. It will have a 4 to 5 year life-span before the next generation console.

You can go back and check my other Xbox related predictions from years past. I stand by my record.
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post #71 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Who said next Xbox will have a drive, Blu-Ray or otherwise?

Anybody who is expecting the next Xbox in 2012 will be severely disapointed. Far as MS is concerened, they have shipped a new console already. It is called Kinect. It will have a 4 to 5 year life-span before the next generation console.

You can go back and check my other Xbox related predictions from years past. I stand by my record.

No offense, but you are absolutely insane if you think 2014 or 2015 is the EARLIEST they would release a console. No way they wait TEN YEARS between consoles.

I guess you didn't read anyones posts on Kinect. If you believe Kinect is a "Console" launch you are sadly mistaken and I don't know what to tell you. Lets be real here. They have sold roughly 50 million consoles. What percentage of them do you think is on a second purchased console? Most of the 360 owners I know have bought at least two, if not more. Let us say 20% have bought more than one. That means there are 38 million homes with a 360. 10 million Kinects have been sold. That is already over 25% attach rate. Just how high do you think it will go? 50%? No way. I would bet MS is hoping to sell 20 million over the next few years. They can sell even more if the NeXbox is compatible with it. Kinect 2 would come out about 3 years into the NeXbox's life to reinvigorate sales at a new price point. If they play this smart they can essentially get people to double dip on hardware twice a console generation. It is pure genius and something I can see them doing. If every three years we got a boost with a new console or super peripheral, gaming wouldn't get stale and they could get 6-7 years a cycle.

2013 at the latest. I am believing what one poster put up about a friend working on the NeXbox. They are much further along than any of us think in development. I also think that if you don't want a new gen to start soon you aren't much of a gamer. As I have said I am very tired of the games we are getting. It is the same over and over again. My game purchases per year a falling fast. I may only buy 2 games this year compared to 10-15 in a given year. I am not alone with this either. A few gamers I know who buy tons of games have skipped many titles due to "been there, done that" feelings. Bioshock 3? Not interested after playing BioShock 2. Even some major releases recently like Deadspace 2, Assassins Creed Brotherhood, Fallout NV are just more of the same. I am done with the COD series until they use a new game engine. That probably won't happen until the next console. This generation is getting stale to people who have played close to 100 games to date.

If it takes until 2014 I won't be a console gamer anymore.

It has to have a Blu-Ray or other drive. Millions and millions of gamers do not have great internet or have caps. The next gen will introduce new game downloads though.

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post #72 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Who said next Xbox will have a drive, Blu-Ray or otherwise?

Anybody who is expecting the next Xbox in 2012 will be severely disapointed. Far as MS is concerened, they have shipped a new console already. It is called Kinect. It will have a 4 to 5 year life-span before the next generation console.

You can go back and check my other Xbox related predictions from years past. I stand by my record.

Because neither the gaming nor movie distributing industries are ready to commit to 100% non-physical media in the next 4-5 years. That is a HUGE leap. I'd guess the next gen will move it along that path and then the following gen could perhaps make that leap.

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post #73 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 10:49 AM
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MaxPower, frankly MS doesn't care much about you any more. They already have your money.

MS is going after the bigger share of the pie that Nintendo currently holds. Xbox is just starting to take over the sales lead from Nintendo and it will take at least abonther 2 years before MS gets to the market penetration that Nintendo has today. Even Nintendo does not have a replacement ready to go right now, why should Xbox?

Microsoft doesn't need 50% attachment rate for existing Xbox users. They want 50%+ attachment rate for future Xbox purchasers.

While it is true that there are a building full of people working on the next generation console, that does not mean that the replacement is imminent.
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post #74 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by coyote_5 View Post

Because neither the gaming nor movie distributing industries are ready to commit to 100% non-physical media in the next 4-5 years. That is a HUGE leap. I'd guess the next gen will move it along that path and then the following gen could perhaps make that leap.

I would say that is patently not true. Microsoft would be happy to distribute all games on-line right now and would even sacrifice DVD player for Netflix streaming.
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post #75 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 10:59 AM
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I would say that is patently not true. Microsoft would be happy to distribute all games on-line right now and would even sacrifice DVD player for Netflix streaming.

Wow really? Now I know just to avoid your posts. If you think that, you don't understand any of this at all. How old are you? You sound very young.

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post #76 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:00 AM
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I would say that is patently not true. Microsoft would be happy to distribute all games on-line right now and would even sacrifice DVD player for Netflix streaming.

Opinions vary I suppose. My opinion is that the general public won't be ready for this shift to be included in the next gen. People have lots of physical media. Blu-rays aren't going away in the next 4-5 years. MS isn't going to completely isolate their potential customers from an entire segment of media by ignoring some sort of media player.

Netflix streaming has a LONG way to go to replace blu-ray.

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post #77 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:02 AM
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MaxPower, frankly MS doesn't care much about you any more. They already have your money.

MS is going after the bigger share of the pie that Nintendo currently holds. Xbox is just starting to take over the sales lead from Nintendo and it will take at least abonther 2 years before MS gets to the market penetration that Nintendo has today. Even Nintendo does not have a replacement ready to go right now, why should Xbox?

Microsoft doesn't need 50% attachment rate for existing Xbox users. They want 50%+ attachment rate for future Xbox purchasers.

While it is true that there are a building full of people working on the next generation console, that does not mean that the replacement is imminent.

360 will never catch the Wii. The PS3 is going to pass the 360 sometime this year. That will put the 360 in dead last again. Nintendo wouldn't even talk about a console launch for THIS year until E3. They try to wait until the last minute to release details. Nintendo will have a console out by 2012 holiday. More reason for a new Xbox.

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post #78 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:03 AM
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I would say that is patently not true. Microsoft would be happy to distribute all games on-line right now and would even sacrifice DVD player for Netflix streaming.

As one of the very last people in the world who cares about the picture and audio quality of what they're watching, I'll happily tell you that coyote is right. America's broadband network is nowhere near ready to move to a streaming world, and with the broadband providers doing things like placing caps on usage, there's no way we'll be ready in 4-5 years either. Frankly, that's good for me. Even if I could stream HD Netflix (which I can't), it's a compressed mess anyway, and the other services aren't any better. It's unfortunate that less and less people care and will settle for "good enough".

Anyway, back to the point, just because Microsoft (or whichever company you want to choose) would like to go to a download-only service, they won't because they know there isn't going to be enough consumer support yet.

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post #79 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by coyote_5 View Post

Opinions vary I suppose. My opinion is that the general public won't be ready for this shift to be included in the next gen. People have lots of physical media. Blu-rays aren't going away in the next 4-5 years. MS isn't going to completely isolate their potential customers from an entire segment of media by ignoring some sort of media player.

Netflix streaming has a LONG way to go to replace blu-ray.

I think he is forgetting about the millions of people in this country who only have access to dialup. Let us not even mention the rest of the world. Far too many customers would be left out. I am with you on a transition. I hope to get downloaded games before the stores and at a discount. I would be all over that. Millions of people will not because they can't afford to buy all of their games brand new. They buy and sell in the used game market to get access to games. Cut that off and you have many millions more who will not buy the NeXbox.

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post #80 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:05 AM
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Add my vote.. as one who doesnt think you will see a BluRay drive in a MS console.

You havent ever seen a BR product on a Apple computer have you?
Just like you damn sure wont see a BR product on a MS branded "computer" (aka Xbox).

Mainly because both of these companies want to get away from physical discs and move towards digital downloads and distribution.

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post #81 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:07 AM
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Add my vote.. as one who doesnt think you will see a BluRay drive in a MS console.

You havent ever seen a BR product on a Apple computer have you?
Just like you damn sure wont see a BR product on a MS branded "computer" (aka Xbox).

Mainly because both of these companies want to get away from physical discs and move towards digital downloads and distribution.

They don't have to use BR. Gameboy is saying NO DRIVE AT ALL. That will not happen, period.

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post #82 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:09 AM
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I think he is forgetting about the millions of people in this country who only have access to dialup. Let us not even mention the rest of the world. Far too many customers would be left out. I am with you on a transition. I hope to get downloaded games before the stores and at a discount. I would be all over that. Millions of people will not because they can't afford to buy all of their games brand new. They buy and sell in the used game market to get access to games. Cut that off and you have many millions more who will not buy the NeXbox.

It's more than just dial-up though. I can only get a 3MB down DSL connection and that's not even close to enough to stream HD. I've got a friend that's got a 6MB down connection and he can't reliably stream HD either. You have to get a 10MB down or better to even start to see any consistency and that's assuming nothing else is happening on your network. So, when you start to look at the bigger picture like that you see that we're nowhere even close to this "digital world" he's referring to.

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post #83 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:11 AM
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It's more than just dial-up though. I can only get a 3MB down DSL connection and that's not even close to enough to stream HD. I've got a friend that's got a 6MB down connection and he can't reliably stream HD either. You have to get a 10MB down or better to even start to see any consistency and that's assuming nothing else is happening on your network. So, when you start to look at the bigger picture like that you see that we're nowhere even close to this "digital world" he's referring to.

I feel for you man. DSL sucked badly when I had it years ago. We all know that all console makers would love to lose disc based games. It is just too early to make that happen.

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post #84 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Daekwan View Post

Add my vote.. as one who doesnt think you will see a BluRay drive in a MS console.

You havent ever seen a BR product on a Apple computer have you?
Just like you damn sure wont see a BR product on a MS branded "computer" (aka Xbox).

Mainly because both of these companies want to get away from physical discs and move towards digital downloads and distribution.

I don't know, blu-ray is soooo dominant right now, I just don't see how MS can come out and market a new product as the center of your media entertainment system and not include it in some fashion... I know there are obstacles with Java, (being discussed in the other thread, which by the way it is really silly to have 2 threads on this since they are nearly identical in content), but still, they have to find a way to do it somehow, right?

Apple computers isn't a good comparison because they are not trying to sell one of those as the one stop shop for your family room entertainment.

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post #85 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Who said next Xbox will have a drive, Blu-Ray or otherwise?

Whether it will or it won't, the main point is developers have already gone on record about the limitations of DVD, so I really don't see how MS can continue on another 5 years with a storage medium that was old back in 2005, and simply archaic in 4 years time( if not now).

Kinect is probably going to feature prominently in their next system, so them releasing it at this point doesn't mean they're going to ride it for the next 5 years. It just means those who bought it now will likely be able to connect it up to the 720, and continue kinect gameplay on the next system( along with whatever else MS comes up with).

And to piggyback on the above statements, we're not at a point yet of an all DD future. And frankly I hope we never get to that point. Physical AND DD releases on all software? Sure. DD only? No thanks....

Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #86 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by coyote_5 View Post

I don't know, blu-ray is soooo dominant right now.

it is?

"that makes me sad in pants" (Not Another Teen Movie reference)

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post #87 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:18 AM
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it is?

"that makes me sad in pants" (Not Another Teen Movie reference)

I think he was being sarcastic. Blu-Ray sales have picked up a good bit the past year or so. It is still to expensive for the masses IMO. Another year or two and most who care about movies at home will have one.

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post #88 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:21 AM
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I think he was being sarcastic. Blu-Ray sales have picked up a good bit the past year or so. It is still to expensive for the masses IMO. Another year or two and most who care about movies at home will have one.

hopefully the nexgen will include a sarcasm meter for me

I care about movies, and will never own a BD player
but hey, I'm just a "sour-grapes HD DVD fanboy"

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post #89 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:26 AM
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While BR sales may be doing 'okay'. I personally dont know anybody buying into the technology. I dont know anybody with a standalone BR player. And all of my friends with PS3's use it for gaming. They may own 1 or 2 BR discs.. but that purchase was pretty much out of curiousity for the whole BR experience that was promised or some sort of movie/trilogy/etc that they abosolutely had to own in the format with the absolute best quality & sound. The BR market is definitely nowhere near the same as a decade ago where people were going to Best Buy on their lunch break, every week, to get the latest released movie on DVD.

BR won format war. But in the average household is it popular enough to really warrant it as a "must have" in the next gen MS console? I dont think so. I'll still stick by guns and say MS would much rather you download a $6 HD movie from Xbox Marketplace, than buy that movie on BR and use it in their next console.

Theres also been the argument that next gen games could come on USB drives. While that doesnt make much sense, because the physical format is much more expensive.. its still an option. Dont forget games sold on physical cartridges for years.

I would still MUCH rather prefer to download the full version of any the game at some kind of discounted price. And I geniunely hope that is a digital download game delivery system is the one that is supported best on the next Xbox. I honestly dont want to ever purchase/store/own any additional physical media of any kind (discs, USB thumbdrives, etc). I still have 450+ DVD's sitting in storage. And about 30 game discs gathering dust in my closet. Also sucks when travelling having to bring along disc & cases.. or when changing games to get up and go to the Xbox everytime.. when everything is on the system is wireless.

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post #90 of 7006 Old 03-16-2011, 11:27 AM
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Wow, maybe I overreached on the "Sooooooo dominant" part, but I was not being sarcastic. These aren't the early adoption years when all the players were $300+, Blu-ray players are dirt cheap these days. How is it too expensive for the masses?

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