Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 93 - AVS Forum
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post #2761 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Looks like a lot of us were right on the money with the 2014-2016 call. .

How so?

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post #2762 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 12:34 PM
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I've always thought 2014 was going to be the year.

But I think Microsoft will keep the 360 going well past that. They want a set top box to tie Microsoft into your home from the desktop to mobile space to the living room. And for mass acceptance, it needs to go much cheaper than $200. For it to replace your cable box, it needs to be cheaper. Have the 360 compete with the Roku, AppleTV, etc. It offers far more functionality than those devices so if you can match on price, it's a win.

While the new console will occupy the $399 price points, they can reduce the 360 to $99-149.
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post #2763 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 01:29 PM
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Who's "US"???

If you read back on this monster thread (just read page 2&3!!!), you will see that I am the only person who consistently said from the beginning that 2012 was a pipe dream and 2013 was highly unlikely. I said 2015 was most likely with 2014 being possibility.

There are a slew of posts here where people thought I was nuts.

They are not going to announce and ship the Nexbox all in one year. Only reason they did that with Xbox360 was because they were in a time cruch to replace Xbox before PS3 came along. No such market pressure exists anymore as Xbox is the market leader.

I said from the beginning, you will know when something is afoot, because you will start to hear leaks from developers. The major developers are going to get their early dev kits at least 2 years before the launch. The lesser developers will be filled in on the SDK efforts 1 year out. You will hear some leaks when these things happen. Almost everything out there about Nexbox are complete fabrications. When better sourced leaks starts to come out (from multiple sources), you will know things are getting close.
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post #2764 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbyrnes View Post

Well it looks like there will be no 720 announcement this year. Several sources are reporting MS came out and said they will not be announcing at E3 or "anytime soon". Makes sense to me (and others as this was discussed before).

WHAAAATTT???!!!!

This is from you in page three, responding to me predicting no Nexbox in 2012 or 2013:

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbyrnes View Post

...I strongly believe we will have a console by 2013. I am actually thinking 2012 is the year. 2012 is 7 years from the 360 launch. That is a VERY long time between consoles. If they were planning a 10 year life cycle of the 360 that would also make sense. 3 years to support an older console seems about right.

Yes, I am settling some old scores...
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post #2765 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:17 PM
 
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Fall/Winter 2014. Sony will possibly ramp up to take on MS head strong, but my guess is they'll most likely aim for fall 2015. Both are probably finalizing target specs and architecture this summer.

12/early 13 was always a pipe dream. Like a lot of the other suggestions/ rumors in this thread.
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post #2766 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:29 PM
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Sorry, I had to.

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post #2767 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

WHAAAATTT???!!!!

This is from you in page three, responding to me predicting no Nexbox in 2012 or 2013:



Yes, I am settling some old scores...

Come back and post when they announce it has a blu-ray drive.

Read. Think. Post. In that order, preferably

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post #2768 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:41 PM
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I could have sworn I kept saying 2014 myself(goes to check history before getting called out lol)

The 5.0 is here
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post #2769 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

WHAAAATTT???!!!!

This is from you in page three, responding to me predicting no Nexbox in 2012 or 2013:

Yes, I am settling some old scores...

LOL. if you're going to play that game...

I was pretty firm in saying 2014 way back when as well as mboojigga and others. I didn't jump into the thread until very late because people were getting all hot and bothered just fantasizing about the specs and release of the new console. I think it was when some guys went orgasmic and touted the 2012 year that made me jump in on the thread.

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post #2770 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by bbexperience View Post

Come back and post when they announce it has a blu-ray drive.

Yup, that is the next domino to fall. And fall it will...
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post #2771 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 04:12 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Yup, that is the next domino to fall. And fall it will...

It's either that, or they'll go some sort of tiny flash cartridge/mem stick. Thats the only way the rumor of "Disc-less" would be true.

Still, printing discs is cheap and I don't think the savings on shipping and royalties is gonna be worth a move to a different media format. Also, the imaginary fanboy war is just that. Like all companies they'll happily license the IP and pay royalties on patents as long as it works in their long term vision and strategy. Just cause someone else is also going to make a buck doesn't stop corps for adopting the uses and tech for their products. After all MS pays royalties to Sony on each DVD disc printed as it is (and toshiba, ect.). No one ever seems to mention that.

They will go bluray happily for it's use, if it's beneficial. Last time cost ($150 a 1st gen drive), timing (wanted that yr head start) and MS hand in the HDDVD format stopped them. Not this time though.


One needs to remember they still need to sell systems in retail stores and need to keep that relationship strong. Retailers won't be happy if there's no games sales going on in their stores to facilitate other purchases. Hell, it would put the gamestop model out of business, who are also the largest distributors of console sales. Ain't gonna happen..... yet.
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post #2772 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by bd2003 View Post

Don't forget the 360 was announced in may of 2005, the same year it came out. Just cause they're not talking about it this year doesn't push anything to 2014-2016. My money is still on 2013. It's now pretty much established that devs are working on games for next gen consoles. That much was obvious from this year's GDC.

The absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence.

That is technically a very valid point. But those of us who have argued the latter timelines of 2014-beyond have already written a blizzard of points to support equally valid assumptions. It just seems like events and the economy are conspiring in ways which make the 2014-out assumptions more realistic. MS seems to have a portfolio of priorities that are more important on an imminent basis. XBox 360 is becoming a huge cash cow for them. The launch of Windows 8 and all of its "convergence" potential with XBox-S/Kinect/phones/tablets/Windows Live and etc seem to be of paramount importance to them in the 2012-2013 timeframe.

I for one think that makes great business sense. XBox may be a cash cow. But Windows is the business. They must get that launch right...with no risky distractions...such as a potential RROD catastrophe on NexBox. And they do have to get the Windows 8 architecture right to seamlessly integrate the worlds of Windows Live...XBox Live and the Cloud perfectly. It reads like they have decided that it best be done through the XBox 360 first. They can always blow us away later with an "Uber" NexGen console that "nails it".

I bought and beefed up an uber NexGen Asus gaming PC in 2011 that should be able to mate real well with whatever MS does with Windows 8, XBox 360-S w/Kinect and accessories. I can't wait for the Win-8 launch to see how it all comes together. I'm actually good to go in 2012-2013. I really don't need or want an XBox 720 console during that timeframe. Win 8 may be the real game changer here. It will be interesting if MS actually launches a proprietary XBox compatible/PC Spec Standard/OS addon application for Windows 8, to disrupt the rumored Valve SteamBox and Apple systems. That could re-energize the PC gaming industry and accelerate the XBox 360-S business. Sort of the MS version of THX for Windows based gaming.

Anyways...that's how I played my hand with my gaming dollars. Since I don't have Kinect for my Jaspar...I will likely buy a new XBox 360-S w/Kinect this year (after the Windows 8 launch) in anticipation of some kind of convergence between Win-8 & XBox.
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post #2773 of 7006 Old 03-16-2012, 10:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

Still, printing discs is cheap and I don't think the savings on shipping and royalties is gonna be worth a move to a different media format. Also, the imaginary fanboy war is just that. Like all companies they'll happily license the IP and pay royalties on patents as long as it works in their long term vision and strategy. Just cause someone else is also going to make a buck doesn't stop corps for adopting the uses and tech for their products. After all MS pays royalties to Sony on each DVD disc printed as it is (and toshiba, ect.). No one ever seems to mention that.


I've mentioned it, probably in this thread somewhere. I still believe they'll put blu ray in the next xbox. I just don't see it being viable without it. And it's not because they will be paying some money to sony that it wouldn't be in there. That's probably not even an issue at this point in blu ray life-cycle.

They've said they won't have blu ray in xbox 360, never said anything about the next system.


What I find funny is the relationship between samsung and apple. They sue each other back and forth on all these device patents. But that super display on the new ipad is made by samsung.




Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

I bought and beefed up an uber NexGen Asus gaming PC in 2011 that should be able to mate real well with whatever MS does with Windows 8, XBox 360-S w/Kinect and accessories. I can't wait for the Win-8 launch to see how it all comes together. I'm actually good to go in 2012-2013. I really don't need or want an XBox 720 console during that timeframe. Win 8 may be the real game changer here. It will be interesting if MS actually launches a proprietary XBox compatible/PC Spec Standard/OS addon application for Windows 8, to disrupt the rumored Valve SteamBox and Apple systems. That could re-energize the PC gaming industry and accelerate the XBox 360-S business. Sort of the MS version of THX for Windows based gaming.

There is no steambox, gabe debunked that rumor. Apple, I doubt there's any game system coming from them...ever. I don't think there's anything special planned for windows8 xboxlive. It's probably the same stuff you get on windows phone, which is basically nothing.

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post #2774 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 10:43 AM
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It isn't that there no new Xbox for 2013, but that announcing it on June 2012 will most likely impact there 360 business. And if business remains strong despite the Wii U, then they can wait.
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post #2775 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 10:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

Who's "US"???



They are not going to announce and ship the Nexbox all in one year. Only reason they did that with Xbox360 was because they were in a time cruch to replace Xbox before PS3 came along. No such market pressure exists anymore as Xbox is the market leader.

.



Your views on MS market position sure is much better than it really is. They are the market leader in two markets (NA & UK) and that can change at any moment considering they are riding a dying Kinect fad right now. The Wii U comes out this year, that put pressure on Sony and MS. I expect a 2013 E3 announcement and 2012 Fall release for the next Xbox (hope they drop that dude-bro name). Sony will be around the same time, maybe the next Spring.

Sony and MS can continue to sell their current consoles just the way the PS2 sold when the PS3 came out. They can occupy two markets, low end and high end consoles.

MS and Sony both have multiple developers working on games for next gen, they would not be doing that unless the specs were close to final and the horizon was not years out, otherwise it would be very expensive to have people working on games for 2014 right now.

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post #2776 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 11:52 AM
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Just read the last MS quarterly report and tell me how unhappy MS is with Xbox sales.

Xbox is selling strong and MS has doubled down on Kinect with the launch of Kinect for Windows. Does that sound like they are going to change their strategy any time soon?

MS is not going to jeopardize the Xbox360 sale until they have to. That is not going to happen in 2013. You may start to see sales dip in 2013, but until you see that dip, MS is not going to introduce the replacement.

Most big titles take 3 to 4 years to develop. Getting game developers the initial views on specs needs to happen 3 to 4 years before the machine. The big developers just started getting some info middle of last year. They still do not have any real hardware kits or SDK. That will happen within 2 years of the ship.

If you start hearing about the hardware kits middle of this year, 2014 is looking good. 2013 is not happening.

But keep saying it is going to be next year. You will be right within next 3 years...
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post #2777 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 04:54 PM - Thread Starter
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Yeah, I'll admit to being wrong. I really thought that November 2012 was a good bet. I'd say that November 2013 is the most likely release, but honestly, I'm not sure.


The biggest indicator that a new console isn't coming, is the price of the current console. I'm absolutely amazed that the Xbox can still sell console packages for $299.99 (Sure, it may come with Kinect and a bigger HDD or whatever, but still). 300 bucks is quite a bit of money, and people are still paying it. When that Kinect bundle is selling for $199, and a core 360 is selling for $149.99, then I think the next Xbox would be on the horizon, until then, nada.
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post #2778 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 05:29 PM
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A $99 "Arcade" model shouldn't be too far off. (which is what the PS2 still sells for right now amazingly) E3 should bring about price drops, but it may just bring about larger storage and a few free games. This gen has been milked so much already, we can't really predict how it will go anymore...

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post #2779 of 7006 Old 03-17-2012, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

Yeah, I'll admit to being wrong. I really thought that November 2012 was a good bet. I'd say that November 2013 is the most likely release, but honestly, I'm not sure.

The biggest indicator that a new console isn't coming, is the price of the current console. I'm absolutely amazed that the Xbox can still sell console packages for $299.99 (Sure, it may come with Kinect and a bigger HDD or whatever, but still). 300 bucks is quite a bit of money, and people are still paying it. When that Kinect bundle is selling for $199, and a core 360 is selling for $149.99, then I think the next Xbox would be on the horizon, until then, nada.

I have been saying it for the longest time. They created a perception that the IPad/IPhone enjoy. Why give that up just for an announcement over potential money? Some of us saw that even back when the prices were where they were at that the possibility was high for this gen to go longer.

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post #2780 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

The biggest indicator that a new console isn't coming, is the price of the current console. I'm absolutely amazed that the Xbox can still sell console packages for $299.99 (Sure, it may come with Kinect and a bigger HDD or whatever, but still).

The 250GB Kinect bundle is actually $399.99 and still selling...amazing!
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post #2781 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

If you read back on this monster thread (just read page 2&3!!!), you will see that I am the only person who consistently said from the beginning that 2012 was a pipe dream and 2013 was highly unlikely. I said 2015 was most likely with 2014 being possibility.

I think it is 99% likely that the next Microsoft game console will launch in 2013. At this point in time what year do you think is most likely?


Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

The major developers are going to get their early dev kits at least 2 years before the launch.

The rumor from SemiAccurate wasn't just that the development kits based on the SoC were coming out in February/March but that mass production of the SoC for retail consoles is expected to start late this year.
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post #2782 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

I think it is 99% likely that the next Microsoft game console will launch in 2013. At this point in time what year do you think is most likely?


The rumor from SemiAccurate wasn't just that the development kits based on the SoC were coming out in February/March but that mass production of the SoC for retail consoles is expected to start late this year.


Glad you aknowledged that your confidence level (99%) was based on the "bolded" rumor. "Late this year" rumoring in development land equals sometime "next year" or later 99% of the time. It's tantamount to a journalist saying "I don't really have a clue about this". "Semiaccurate" didn't really throw their nuts on the line in that article. My own confidence level is 100% on 2014-2015. Always has been. XBox 360 is still going & growing too strong in too many ways. I actually agree with what another poster said earlier in this thread. Towit; to the mass market that is adopting the XBox 360 right now...it is NexGen to them. I haven't seen any survey or article to suggest this...but I would lay odds that most of those adopters are avid Wii users. Hence the launch of WiiU to stop the bleeding. MS will milk this profitable gravy train as long as it can IMO.
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post #2783 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 04:53 PM
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I'm not going to wade into this too deep since a lot of folks here seemed convinced they know exactly what is going to happen with the huge megalith corporation that often doesn't know what the other side of it is doing, but how many times have we been told something is not coming/will not be announced only to have a "surprise" announcement at the end of some event?

I honestly don't know the answer, but have any other prospective console launch announcements been rumored, denied, then slipped in? Other big tech devices?

I don't think it's coming out this year, but I think 2013 is a real possibility, especially for the holiday season, regardless of what is said at e3 this year.
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post #2784 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yrd View Post

I've mentioned it, probably in this thread somewhere. I still believe they'll put blu ray in the next xbox. I just don't see it being viable without it. And it's not because they will be paying some money to sony that it wouldn't be in there. That's probably not even an issue at this point in blu ray life-cycle.

They've said they won't have blu ray in xbox 360, never said anything about the next system.


What I find funny is the relationship between samsung and apple. They sue each other back and forth on all these device patents. But that super display on the new ipad is made by samsung.


There is no steambox, gabe debunked that rumor. Apple, I doubt there's any game system coming from them...ever. I don't think there's anything special planned for windows8 xboxlive. It's probably the same stuff you get on windows phone, which is basically nothing.

I had not seen the Gabe debunking on SteamBox YRD. But the only thing I really want to hear from Gabe is when HL3 is launching. I just disagree with your absolute certainty on the bolded Apple prediction. Apple is sort of already a huge player in the game system world via the side door...with IPhone...IPad etc. And MS has already announced that they have something special planned between Windows 8 & XBox. We'll just have to wait and see what it is. But one person's "special" is always the next guy's "nothing".

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post #2785 of 7006 Old 03-18-2012, 10:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

I think it is 99% likely that the next Microsoft game console will launch in 2013. At this point in time what year do you think is most likely?

My prediction has not changed from the beginning (you can check it in page 2 &3 of this thread). 2015 ship with 2014 being a possibility. I said from the beginning 2012 was not possible and 2013 was not likely.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

The rumor from SemiAccurate wasn't just that the development kits based on the SoC were coming out in February/March but that mass production of the SoC for retail consoles is expected to start late this year.

I don't give any weight to these one-off "leaks". These guys are fabricating stuff out of thin air which is why we had a lot of people on this board thinking that 2012 was a possibility.

When the dev kits REALLY go out, there will be multiple leaks. It is just too difficult to keep things locked down when so many people will have access to the kits. These "leaks" that we are getting now are not it.
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post #2786 of 7006 Old 03-19-2012, 10:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Glad you aknowledged that your confidence level (99%) was based on the "bolded" rumor.

My prediction is based on more than that but the SemiAccurate website would be the main reason.


Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

My own confidence level is 100% on 2014-2015. Always has been.

100% is a very high level of confidence though that is for two years.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

My prediction has not changed from the beginning (you can check it in page 2 &3 of this thread). 2015 ship with 2014 being a possibility. I said from the beginning 2012 was not possible and 2013 was not likely.

I think a 2015 launch is very, very unlikely but only time will tell what will happen.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

I don't give any weight to these one-off "leaks". These guys are fabricating stuff out of thin air which is why we had a lot of people on this board thinking that 2012 was a possibility.

I am normally skeptical of rumors but SemiAccurate has been fairly reliable when it comes to GPU news. Also they have covered this subject for months and they hinted at the name of the SoC back in August (that it sounded something like Obed but that the "spelling might be a bit off"), they stated that the SoC taped out back in December (and gave the SoC name of "Oban"), and stated that production had started on the SoC for development kits back in January (and that development kits would likely start shipping in March). Also there are other indications that make me think there is something to this rumor such as this Gamespot article on what happened when a Crytek employee mentioned a "Durango developers summit" on Twitter (a few sites have reported that "Durango" is the codename for the next Microsoft game console).


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Originally Posted by gameboy View Post

When the dev kits REALLY go out, there will be multiple leaks. It is just too difficult to keep things locked down when so many people will have access to the kits. These "leaks" that we are getting now are not it.

I can understand that and the amount of evidence that there is for development kits shipping is a legitimate reason. The SemiAccurate estimate made back in January for when development kits would start shipping was March. I don't necessarily think that more evidence will come out the month that development kits start to ship but I would expect that to happen within 3 months of that time.
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post #2787 of 7006 Old 03-19-2012, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

XBox 360 is still going & growing too strong in too many ways.

But one of the weird things about this longer console cycle is that even though the 360 is continuing to grow in sales, software sales aren't growing at the same rate. MS might be pleased with where things are right now, but publishers aren't. That's why many studios have already begun to switch to next gen development, and many more have expanded into social and mobile gaming.

We may not have any confirmation about the next set of consoles, but we do know that a handful of development studios have made the jump already. They might just be guessing, or they may be getting a healthy head start. Probably some of both, but I wouldn't be surprised if even they don't know exactly what MS is planning.

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I just disagree with your absolute certainty on the bolded Apple prediction. Apple is sort of already a huge player in the game system world via the side door...with IPhone...IPad etc.

Yeah. This is a done deal. Regardless of whether people here think it's a "legit" gaming platform or not, Apple is already one of the biggest players in the gaming industry in terms of sales, hardware penetration, attach rates, and mindshare. It's by far the fastest growing gaming market. And it's also where all the fastest technological growth is happening. So much so that in 2-3 years, MS won't be able to afford to compete with Apple in terms of raw horsepower, nor will they be able to compete in terms of total marketshare. MS's greatest hope is in differentiation, not in horsepower. By the time they roll out their next Xbox, they'll need to figure out how to convince people that we need a gaming console and an iPad.

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post #2788 of 7006 Old 03-20-2012, 09:08 AM
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All consoles are growing in sales, install base can only get bigger, they don't measure retired or dead consoles. I bet plenty of 360S sales are replacing old units, how many people in this forum have done the same, most?

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post #2789 of 7006 Old 03-20-2012, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by tgable View Post

All consoles are growing in sales, install base can only get bigger, they don't measure retired or dead consoles. I bet plenty of 360S sales are replacing old units, how many people in this forum have done the same, most?

You can ask the same question about how many PS3s have been purchased due to YLOD or BR not recognizing movies or games. Oh wait they have a thread in that section dedicated for it. How many people have bought more than one PS3 and 360 for multiple rooms? How many people bought 360s for Kinect? Nice try on the troll stomp. You act like u haven't brought this question or comment up multiple times in the last few years. You and many others that like to make this comment actually don't realize you are praising the product. If a person goes out and repurchases a 360/PS3 and it was out of warranty it is another sold unit. Doesn't matter the reasons. Let us know when u do the research and tell us exactly how many people bought new 360s out of their 3 year or standard warranty period.

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post #2790 of 7006 Old 03-20-2012, 09:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgable View Post

All consoles are growing in sales, install base can only get bigger, they don't measure retired or dead consoles. I bet plenty of 360S sales are replacing old units, how many people in this forum have done the same, most?

The other way of looking at this is: people are so committed to their consoles of choice that they'll unflinchingly run out to replace a broken unit. And as I said above, HD console sales continue to rise, but software sales aren't growing as consistently. It's a very weird situation whose only precedent is in the PSP, and we all know how that turned out.

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