PlayStation Meeting 2013 (PS4 unveiling - conference replay in first post) - Page 34 - AVS Forum
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post #991 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

There's absolutely no way in the world any console company can afford to sell a new console for more than $400--considering the state of the industry and of the economy at large. If they do it, they're dooming themselves before they've even started.

If it's really going to be that expensive, they will have to do something to avoid sticker shock (subscription contracts, etc.).

I agree. It will be $399.99. Especially since both the PS4 and Xbox will launch around the same time.

They want to sell to the masses in a down economy, right? I suppose it's possible they might have two sku's and one could be $499.99.

But I think it's more likely that it'll $299 and $399.
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post #992 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 09:06 PM
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I agree. It will be $399.99. Especially since both the PS4 and Xbox will launch around the same time.


If Sony is going with DDR5, I just don't see how they could make a $399.99 price unless there is no optical drive.
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post #993 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 09:10 PM
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$499 for a model with a tiny HD. Should last about 6 months before you fill it up. Cough cough.

$599 for the big HD model.

Dont expect backwards compatibility. Sure they will release "select" PS3 games on the PS4... when they _port_ them.aka recompile the app from working on a Cell to working on the mobile ARM cpu. As long as companies used the PS SDK, it should port pretty easy.

And honestly Im betting they release a $399 model without a Blu-ray. Sony will solve the whole used-games problem by going that route. The whole "full games zero day releases" are already happening on PSN.
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post #994 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

Backwards compatibility matters more and more as we move into the digital age. If all those purchases suddenly don't work on the new hardware, people will be livid. Apple has set the standard as has Steam, people expect their digital content to move with them to new hardware.
I hope it's as simple as retaining the license for as long as "PSN" exists. We'll see.
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Even Nintendo did it right with both the 3DS and Wii U.
I don't know about "right," but they did okay. They're charging for "Wii U" versions of VC games that we already own.

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post #995 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 09:51 PM
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The Wii U upgrade fee is basically a discount on a upgraded version of the game. You don't have to rebuy anything if you don't want to, it will still work just fine in Wii mode. The upgraded emulator allows for off screen play and save states for a discounted price for existing owners. It is a much better option than paying full price for an upgraded version.

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post #996 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 10:04 PM
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post #997 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 10:12 PM
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The war, begun, it has.

That is going in my collection for sure.

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post #998 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 11:19 PM
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Game of Thrones Season 3, Sunday March 31st on HBO tongue.gif
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post #999 of 1994 Old 02-02-2013, 11:30 PM
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post #1000 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 04:08 AM
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If it launched without BC it'd be the first disc based system ever to do so. Even portables have BC. Not having some form of it is unthinkable, its an industry standard.

Hardware is a neat solution but its not the only one. If they can emulate a PS2 on a PS3, a Xbox 1 on a 360, then they can emulate a PS3 on a PS4. I'll be shocked if the support isn't there.

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post #1001 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 06:28 AM
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There's no chance they can do a full software emulation of a Cell processor that runs fast enough. It has too many strange hardware features, plus it's still really fast at certain things where all the SPEs are fully utilized (too fast for software emulation today).
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post #1002 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by kriktsemaj99 View Post

There's no chance they can do a full software emulation of a Cell processor that runs fast enough. It has too many strange hardware features, plus it's still really fast at certain things where all the SPEs are fully utilized (too fast for software emulation today).
And then they're faced with one of the big problems they had with the PS3 launch. Add extra hardware, extra production expense, higher retail cost, and still sell at a loss. Not good.

For that and other reasons, I think we're more likely to see title-by-title BC, similar to the 360's BC for old Xbox games. We may see a hefty chunk of PSN titles make the jump, since hardware is less of an issue for most of those. But then if these are all being done on a title-by-title basis, that gives the license holders (i.e. publishers) an opportunity to say "yes" or "no." Hopefully, more will say "yes" than "no," but who knows?
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If it launched without BC it'd be the first disc based system ever to do so. Even portables have BC. Not having some form of it is unthinkable, its an industry standard.
The new standard is partial BC. And considering there was only one console generation prior to the current one that had legacy disc-based titles (PS2 -> PS1), that isn't much of a precedent. The current gen is the first one that really tried it in any comprehensive way, and both MS and Sony backed off from it in a big way over the course of the cycle. Surprisingly, it's been Nintendo that's had the most open, fair, and consistent approach to BC. But even they are far from perfect (see above).

The real test IMO will be with digital content. That's the big change this gen, and it's tailor made for backwards compatibility. If that doesn't make the jump, it won't be for technical reasons (though that's the excuse we'd be most likely to hear). The botched digital BC for Vita (from PSP) has made me incredibly skeptical.

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post #1003 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

The real test IMO will be with digital content. That's the big change this gen, and it's tailor made for backwards compatibility. If that doesn't make the jump, it won't be for technical reasons (though that's the excuse we'd be most likely to hear).

Is that because PSN titles are rarely written to maximize use of the Cell?
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post #1004 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 01:39 PM - Thread Starter
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Whether disc or digital, native PS3 titles are exactly the same. Any BC solution works for both or neither.

If we get any form of built-in BC at launch it will be for PSOne and maybe PS2 because it would be purely software based. The Cell is too unique and quirky to emulate on the PS4 through software alone, so either some PS3 games will get targeted next-gen upgrades like God of War HD did from the PS2 and PSP, or there will be some type of hardware answer put into play.

If hardware is the answer, forget about it being included in PS4s. They simply will not increase the price of the new console for this purpose. Not only is non-PS4 hardware an extra cost in itself, but Sony would also have to add more supporting hardware for it, including a larger more expensive board to fit it on as well as address any increase in heat from the extra components. $600 PS4 anyone?

If PS3 BC gets a hardware solution, I believe it will likely be some add-on device that people can choose to purchase on their own if they wish. Maybe $100 initially for a snap-on unit that plays 98% of all PS3 games whether they are disc or digital.

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post #1005 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 02:02 PM - Thread Starter
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And back to the $400 wishful thinking of the PS3 price, keep this in mind. The production cost to make launch PS3s back in 2006 was $840 according to iSuppli. Sony took at least a $240 hit per unit and people still said it was expensive at $600.

Now, making sure that they keep costs under control this time, let's say they miraculously can make each PS4 for only $650 in production costs. That would be huge, because inflation has made stuff in general more expensive than they were seven years ago. They will not then turn around and lop off $250 of the retail price and sell it for $400!

Adjusted for inflation, if they sold the PS4 this fall for the same price as the launch PS3, it would cost just shy of $700. That won't happen. If they instead sold this unit for $600, it would be the same as if they sold the deluxe PS3 for $510 at launch because of inflation over the last number of years.

Still, I can see them going to $500, which would be the same as if they sold the deluxe PS3 for around $425 at launch when adjusted for inflation. So if you wouldn't have complained about a $425 price tag for the launch 60GB PS3 in 2006, a $500 launch PS4 in 2013 is the same thing. They still take a loss per unit, but not as bad as they did when the PS3 came out. If they were able to drive production costs even further down, they could lose only $50 -$100 this time. This is why hoping a $400 PS4 makes no sense.

Another thing to consider is that Sony seems to prefer "added value" solutions over outright price reductions. So again, they may find it more beneficial to offer PS3s for a cheap price (like $300) if people sign up for a monthly payment plan of some sort over the course of a few years. Maybe even $500 a year of PS+, I dunno. It is impossible to see them just sell it so cheaply on day one, especially with some of the cool tech features it is rumored to have.

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post #1006 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 02:19 PM
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The best backwards compatibility is just to keep the old console along side the new for as long as you want to play the old games.

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post #1007 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 02:20 PM
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Joe ,you could be right. But what about the new Xbox? Rumors suggest that the PS4 and next Xbox share similar specs. The Xbox 360 launched at $299 - $399. Do you think the new Xbox will be over $500?
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post #1008 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 04:03 PM
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I hope it's a beast. And if there's a couple good games at launch, I might grab one at the beginning even if it is 600 bucks just because I'm so ready to move on to something new. As far as the Xbox, they just don't have the exclusives anymore. Seems Microsoft is more about making a media system than a game system. Halo and Gears only get you so far. And Halo doesn't even count anymore simply because the FPS genre has been completely whored out over the past few years. Sick of those games at this point. I'm back into single player games with a great story. The Last of Us looks promising and who know what companies like Sucker Punch are up to. Gotta be something good.

We'll see what MS comes up with as far as new games. But right now, they're not doing anything to get my money. I'd like to own both. But not if it's only for a couple games.

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post #1009 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 04:07 PM
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We'll see what MS comes up with as far as new games. But right now, they're not doing anything to get my money. I'd like to own both. But not if it's only for a couple games.

That's my exact situation, other than getting a few of Playstation exclusives like DMC, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear..etc they pretty much have nothing original to offer, Lost Odyssey is the only exclusive that interested during this Gen and one game just isn't good enough to own both consoles.

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post #1010 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 04:10 PM
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Everything I have seen on the estimated specs, even on the high end, point to it being profitable for under $500 easily. The low end specs could be profitable at $300. The most expensive components would be the GPU and C/APU, unless the DDR5 rumor pans out, that would add another $100 easily, but they will be nowhere near the cost of the PS3 at launch. (GPU $129, Cell $89, BRD $125) odds are the entire PS4 will cost as much as those three did back then. (again, not counting the DDR5 rumor)

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post #1011 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 04:14 PM
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That's my exact situation, other than getting a few of Playstation exclusives like DMC, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear..etc they pretty much have nothing original to offer, Lost Odyssey is the only exclusive that interested during this Gen and one game just isn't good enough to own both consoles.

Yeah and they wasted that one.
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post #1012 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 07:48 PM
 
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Everything I have seen on the estimated specs, even on the high end, point to it being profitable for under $500 easily. The low end specs could be profitable at $300. The most expensive components would be the GPU and C/APU, unless the DDR5 rumor pans out, that would add another $100 easily, but they will be nowhere near the cost of the PS3 at launch. (GPU $129, Cell $89, BRD $125) odds are the entire PS4 will cost as much as those three did back then. (again, not counting the DDR5 rumor)

Yup, and while the GPU/CPU will be custom implementations, they're pretty much standard AMD designs of current hardware. Multiply an order of 100's of millions of units, and Sony will be getting them for a much cheaper than the R&D and productions costs of the cell.
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post #1013 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 08:41 PM
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The latest rumors do suggest some sort of coprocessor...what if its just a cell on a modern process? It can't be that expensive, they can use the extra power for games, and it solves the BC issue.

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post #1014 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 09:45 PM - Thread Starter
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While getting a great deal with AMD is awesome, does anyone seriously think that the production costs would come down from $840 for the launch PS3 to below $400 for the launch PS4? Let's be real. If they got it down to $600 it would be a respectable achievement (again, because of inflation it means they actually cut costs even more in adjusted dollars). but that is still a $100 loss on each launch sale if they price it at $500.

Sony publicly said they sold a million during the 2006 PS3 launch after six weeks. If they do similar numbers this time with the PS4 while losing $100 per unit, that's a hundred million dollars hole they will have dug and counting. Again, there seems to be no way they are launching at $400 or less without some kind of forced subscription model. I can see them inching towards profitability as soon as possible rather than a massive price cut from the launch PS4.

And the same rumors that say Sony are using an APU and GPU from AMD (which indeed cuts costs as it consolidates the CPU and GPU) are the same ones that say they are going with a high-end solution for the RAM (which costs $$$). It is more likely than not that if the rumor about this arrangement is partially correct, it is also likely to be altogether correct because it all comes from the same sources.
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Joe ,you could be right. But what about the new Xbox? Rumors suggest that the PS4 and next Xbox share similar specs. The Xbox 360 launched at $299 - $399. Do you think the new Xbox will be over $500?

Rather than go off topic in this forum, please ask over here instead.

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post #1015 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 10:49 PM
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The PS3 was seriously bloated cost wise, the 360 20gb cost $540 to make at launch and only $330 a year later. The PS3 cost $330 to build after 3 years (after the move to the slim)

By using more mature and cheaper hardware from the start instead of overpriced custom tech, the price to build that hardware comes way down. Even the DDR5 will probably only cost Sony $25 per gig at most, $20 is more realistic. (based on the cost of a cheap gpu with 1gb of the stuff plus wholesale discounts)

No way will the PS4 cost Sony anywhere near what the PS3 cost them, and no way they will sell it for a loss, they just don't have the cash reserves to do it anymore.

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post #1016 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 10:57 PM - Thread Starter
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I agree it won't cost $840 to make (the production cost of the PS3 launch unit). And if you think they won't sell for a loss, then you can't believe they will sell as low as $400. That's the only point I'm making. It won't cost that low to make and they won't sell it that low either.

Keep in mind that you have to factor in inflation with your analysis of prices then and now - something that cost $540 to make in 2005 would cost around $650 at the end of 2013. So if a PS4 can be made for $650 when it is released, who here thinks it will sell for $400? Not me.

No one is even mentioning the new tech involved with the controllers and how that will affect costs as well, especially if new Move functionality and the rumored dual lens camera is included.

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post #1017 of 1994 Old 02-03-2013, 11:05 PM
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I have yet to see a single rumored spec sheet that would cost more than $400 to build wholesale. (aside from the insane 8gb ddr5 rumor) Given the reaction to the Wii U price ($350 is too much for a lot of people, demands for a price drop started before launch) as well as the low sales of the Vita, the PS4 needs to be priced to move and needs to make them money from day one. Anything over $400 is pushing it in this economy.

The GPU and APU combo chip will probably run Sony less than $80 together based on the average rumors. Bluray drives are dirt cheap now, as are HDDs. The DDR5 rumors are the only expensive ones, and even they are nothing compared to the overpriced PS3 parts.

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post #1018 of 1994 Old 02-04-2013, 12:42 AM
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Aren't there any talks about the possibility of using SSDs which aren't exactly cheap instead of HDD? IMO such thing should exist in a "Next Gen" console, HDDs are so slow in comparison and in 3-4 years they'll be ancient . At least hybrid designs if full SSD would be too expensive.

Man it must suck to be in the shoes of Sony, Microsoft..etc to be forced to create a console that will last a 5-7 year cycle and yet price it at $400 or so because the mainstream thinks anything more is expensive, too damn difficult.

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post #1019 of 1994 Old 02-04-2013, 12:44 AM - Thread Starter
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SSD, 4-8 GB of GDDR5, Move with dual camera lens PSEye, biometric touch controller, hardware BC tech... there is talk on forums of all kinds of extras that would drive up the production cost if included. That's another reason to be cautious with expectations of cheapness before knowing everything that is included in the package.

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I have yet to see a single rumored spec sheet that would cost more than $400 to build wholesale. (aside from the insane 8gb ddr5 rumor) Given the reaction to the Wii U price ($350 is too much for a lot of people, demands for a price drop started before launch) as well as the low sales of the Vita, the PS4 needs to be priced to move and needs to make them money from day one. Anything over $400 is pushing it in this economy.

The GPU and APU combo chip will probably run Sony less than $80 together based on the average rumors. Bluray drives are dirt cheap now, as are HDDs. The DDR5 rumors are the only expensive ones, and even they are nothing compared to the overpriced PS3 parts.
Point me to these price breakdown rumors. I've read many articles and haven't come across one of those.

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post #1020 of 1994 Old 02-04-2013, 04:26 AM
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Aren't there any talks about the possibility of using SSDs which aren't exactly cheap instead of HDD? IMO such thing should exist in a "Next Gen" console, HDDs are so slow in comparison and in 3-4 years they'll be ancient . At least hybrid designs if full SSD would be too expensive.

Man it must suck to be in the shoes of Sony, Microsoft..etc to be forced to create a console that will last a 5-7 year cycle and yet price it at $400 or so because the mainstream thinks anything more is expensive, too damn difficult.

There aren't any solid rumors that they'll be using SSDs, and any rumor that says they are makes the whole thing suspect.

They might have a small cache on the motherboard (4-8gb), but as long as Sony doesnt close it off, you'll be able to add your own SSD. I know I will.

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