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post #271 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 09:46 PM
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People will be paying for PS+ at PS4 purchase time.

Software will be $70 so Sony will get more $$$ per game (plus extra shares when the games are sold day-1 online taking box-stores portions).

SixAxis controllers arent compatible, so expect a portion of people to pick up a 2nd controller on Day -1.

Maybe those expectations will keep the costs down.

$399.

But people will be walking out the store with $600 of stuff after tax.

I don't see people picking up Vita's on Day-1.
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post #272 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 09:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130304PD221.html

Sony wants to ship 16 million PS4s by the end of 2013...

If true then Sony may be launching sooner than we thought and at a lower price point than most people were expecting.

16 million??!! That's got to be FY 2013 which is March 31 2014. Even so that's a dramatic number if they start shipping some time in November this year. That number, if official, will probably be lowered.

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post #273 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by defdog99 View Post


I don't see people picking up Vita's on Day-1.

Buy a PS4, get a Vita for only $99 more!


Although, they probably would only start that promotion in January or February 2014 after the initial launch hype has died down and sales have slowed.
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post #274 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 10:03 PM
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I hope they won't go with 2 versions of PS4, PS3 had that and people only considered the console as a $600 machine without counting the $500 alternative.

I'd happily pay $500 for PS4, but I know many won't, so I feel like Sony will launch the console with a $449.99 price tag. Also, unlike PS3 & Xbox360 that had a whole year gap between them, PS4 and the next Xbox console will probably be released with only a tiny gap (if any) between them, so this time around the price of the console will be more crucial than Ever for a successful launch, when people see a $399.99 Microsoft console on shelves and the Sony going for $499.99, the answer for casual players (who happen to be the majority) will be Very easy, buying 2 consoles isn't even an option for most people.

As for the possible $70 video game price increase, as I said before, PS2 didn't milk games with DLC unlike the current gen, so another increase to $70 price tag + paying for DLC is RIDICULOUS and absurd. I hope they won't be stupid enough to do it.

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post #275 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by joeblow View Post

$400 for bare bones and $500 for PSEye2, PS+ and other goodies would be amazing

If the PS4 eye is going to have any significance at all, it has to come with each and every single PS4. Including it in one sku, and not in another would just be beyond dumb. I also believe that a Move wand should come in every single PS4 package. They only need to include one of them.


This way, every publisher knows that every PS4 owner has a PS4 eye and a Move wand, so they can get more ambitious with that stuff, knowing they have the entire PS4 ownership base as an addressable market. Fragmentation is the worst thing possible. Not that I'm really into the motion games or anything, but if they are going to do it, might as well do it right. I still think there could be an amazing Tennis game on the PS4 (using a move wand along with the PS4 eye)

If you think about it, that move wand could really be the difference. If Microsoft sticks with the whole "You are the Controller" thing, then we know they aren't going to have anything you can hold in your hand. The move wand is better imo, because I like physically having something in my hand, and I like the rumble feedback. If you also included all the tracking that the Kinect can do, but even more advanced with a better camera, then I can get the first person Tennis game I've always wanted. With Microsoft and Xbox Infinity, I have to pretend that I'm holding a tennis racket in my empty hand, with no rumble feedback. Sony has a huge advantage imo with having that physical thing that you can hold, that rumbles, that can be a sword handle, or a baseball bat handle,or a tennis racket handle, etc,etc.
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post #276 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 10:20 PM
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I did a price breakdown on another forum, $399 with a very minimal loss is doable. (talking one to two first party games sold depending on retailer wholesale) and $299 is also within reason with a sizeable loss to quickly gain marketshare. Nothing in the PS4 is expensive, even the GDDR5 can be had cheaply, and this is factoring in a Move Camera in every box.

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post #277 of 18589 Old 03-05-2013, 10:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

Buy a PS4, get a Vita for only $99 more!


Although, they probably would only start that promotion in January or February 2014 after the initial launch hype has died down and sales have slowed.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony does try to heavily promote the PS Vita during the launch of the PS4 because of Remote play and that's if it'll really work with most games this time. I really don't think it'll be that long until Sony lowers the retail price of the PS Vita to $200 in the US so I can imagine saving $50 if you buy the PS4 together with the PS Vita which would essentially be like buying the PS Vita for $150.
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post #278 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 01:25 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

I did a price breakdown on another forum, $399 with a very minimal loss is doable. (talking one to two first party games sold depending on retailer wholesale) and $299 is also within reason with a sizeable loss to quickly gain marketshare. Nothing in the PS4 is expensive, even the GDDR5 can be had cheaply, and this is factoring in a Move Camera in every box.

How are you factoring the extra costs involved in the customized GPU, especially since it hasn't been fully exposed for reasonable estimates? The same is true for the customized CPU. Customization always adds to the costs.

Also, the 4GB GDDR5 RAM chips are brand spanking new (2GB was the previous max). They only started mass producing them this quarter and aren't available to the general public, so how are you pricing those? Plus there is the secondary customized chip that Sony mentioned in the reveal... how are you factoring in its costs when we know next to nothing about it? And then you throw in Move, which also means you throw in the new PSEye2 camera as well?

Even though more and more details have come out in the last month, your addition still seems to be stuck on $400 or less in production costs. I just don't see that as being realistic.
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post #279 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 02:30 AM
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Originally Posted by joeblow View Post

How are you factoring the extra costs involved in the customized GPU, especially since it hasn't been fully exposed for reasonable estimates? The same is true for the customized CPU. Customization always adds to the costs.

Also, the 4GB GDDR5 RAM chips are brand spanking new (2GB was the previous max). They only started mass producing them this quarter and aren't available to the general public, so how are you pricing those? Plus there is the secondary customized chip that Sony mentioned in the reveal... how are you factoring in its costs when we know next to nothing about it? And then you throw in Move, which also means you throw in the new PSEye2 camera as well?

Even though more and more details have come out in the last month, your addition still seems to be stuck on $400 or less in production costs. I just don't see that as being realistic.

Yes, I took that all into consideration. 1GB GDDR5 can be had for $7 now and production continues to ramp up, which means prices come down. (and they are 4Gbit chips, not GByte) The custom GPU and CPU are wrapped into a APU and are based on existing designs, so costs are brought down considerably. (add in a die shrink to 22nm and costs come down even further) The new Move camera isn't that impressive and not that expensive to build. The secondary chip is also nothing special, the Wii U has one as well built right into the GPU.

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post #280 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 02:59 AM
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Dude, this new APU AFAIK is the most powerful ever built (at least for consumers), so it's not exactly easy to estimate how much a custom thing like that will cost.

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post #281 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 06:04 AM
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Originally Posted by metallicaband View Post

Dude, this new APU AFAIK is the most powerful ever built (at least for consumers), so it's not exactly easy to estimate how much a custom thing like that will cost.

It shouldn't be that difficult to estimate based on what's already out there. It's only slightly customized, most of it is pretty well known. All these modern CPU designs are modular - pick any number of CPU and GPU cores and they just build it.

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post #282 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 07:51 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

Yes, I took that all into consideration. 1GB GDDR5 can be had for $7 now and production continues to ramp up, which means prices come down. (and they are 4Gbit chips, not GByte).
Then write a letter to Sony and tell them their official PS4 spec sheet is wrong.
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The custom GPU and CPU are wrapped into a APU and are based on existing designs, so costs are brought down considerably. (add in a die shrink to 22nm and costs come down even further) The new Move camera isn't that impressive and not that expensive to build. The secondary chip is also nothing special, the Wii U has one as well built right into the GPU.

The point is, when we knew less about the PS4 before the conference you were still estimating these rock bottom production costs. I mean, to not even raise estimates when you suggest the Move and PSEye2 are included is completely unrealistic. They don't cost pennies to make. And of course, you can't even build a PC with a lot of the PS4's innards because the parts don't exist on the retail market (the advanced APU design, the customized 8-core CPU, and customized GPU, 8GB of GDDR5 RAM), yet you keep preaching that this thing will cost $400 or less to make. It defies logic.

And before someone suggests it, no, I am not saying that each component is necessarily more powerful than top tier PC components - just that you can't buy the PS4 parts which are currently unique to this product.

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post #283 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Paulo Teixeira View Post

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony does try to heavily promote the PS Vita during the launch of the PS4 because of Remote play and that's if it'll really work with most games this time. I really don't think it'll be that long until Sony lowers the retail price of the PS Vita to $200 in the US so I can imagine saving $50 if you buy the PS4 together with the PS Vita which would essentially be like buying the PS Vita for $150.

Perhaps a $599 package with Ps4+Vita....not sure how feasible that is but by the time the PS4 launches, Vita manufacturing costs may have dropped a fair bit to make such a package at that price-point possible.

Too many systems and games....not enough time or money!

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post #284 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 08:38 AM
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Joe, where did I contradict the PS4 spec sheet? There is no sperate GPU/CPU in this design, it will be on a single APU, which will cost about the same as an A10 to build ($60-$110 depending on how many they build and if they go with 22nm)

The latest GDDR5 chips as I said are 4Gbit, not GByte, meaning they are still quite small. Two major companies have already started mass production of these chips, others will soon follow. The whole reason my price did not go up is because I actually looked into the wholesale costs of GDDR5, which I assumed was $100 for 4GB, but I was quite wrong on that. This price comes from looking up every component I could. If you want to read it, here it is.

http://gamefaqs.com/boards/691087-playstation-4/65536233

After talking with several people about the PS4 APU and learning it was based on mobile designs, not desktop I reduced my estimate on the APU to entertain the possibility.

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post #285 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 09:13 AM - Thread Starter
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As I said, I copied "GB" reference for the GDDR5 RAM from Sony's official PS4 spec sheet:
Quote:
"PS4 is equipped with 8 GB of unified system memory, easing game creation and increasing the richness of content achievable on the platform. GDDR5 is used for this memory, giving the system 176 GB/second of bandwidth and providing a further boost to graphics performance."

~~~

Part of the fun of forum discussions on topics like this is the speculation. I've made my own predictions in other areas that are probably unlikely to work out. We'll know what the production costs are for the PS4 when iSuppli takes a unit apart and makes its report, but I'll join you and make a prediciton now.

Because it is a bit tough to estimate some of the customised stuff not knowing to what full extent they are unique, I'll approach it another way: how much do I think it will be sold for, and how much $$$ Sony willing to lose with each sale?

Sony indicates that they will be more aware of the launch price (no $600 PS4), and that was taken into account when they went with so many cost cutting decisions with the PS4's design (when compared to the PS3).

The Japanese newspaper article quoted here earlier says that it will be sold for "more than" $430 in Japanese yen. When you deduct an estimate of the mandatory Japanese tax mark up and then read that in U.S. dollars, it translates to "more than" $400, meaning that it won't be sold for $400.

So factoring all of that with retailer mark-up, that puts it at a $425 - $550 sale price. Realistically, I expect the PS4 to be sold at $450 - $500.

Now comes the question of how much they are willing to lose per unit. The 60 GB PS3 lost $240 per unit at launch, and I don't expect them to accept that much red ink this time around.

I don't know if that report above is true (when fixed) that Sony wants to ship 16 million PS4s by the end of their fiscal year in March, but if so, a $100 loss per unit means $1.6 billion in losses for the first 4-5 months. In the big scheme of things, that's not too bad I suppose, and then maybe manufacturing costs will start to slide down.

Every extra $50 in losses per unit is another $800 million loss to absorb using these figures. Maybe a -$150 hit per unit is the max they are willing to take (or a $2.4 billon loss for 16 million PS4s prodduced).

With all that said, my guess is that the production costs for the PS4 will be betwween $575 -$625 per unit, with Sony accepting a $125 loss per unit shipped (-$2 billion for 16 million units).

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post #286 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 09:28 AM
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Also, the 4GB GDDR5 RAM chips are brand spanking new (2GB was the previous max).

This is the part I was targeting. There are no 4GByte GDDR5 chips, only 4Gbit chips, which are much smaller. Sony will need 16 of these for the PS4 or 32 of the 2Gbit chips, which is unlikely as it would cost more in the long run as the 4Gb chips come down in price. My guess is they got a real good offer on pricing on the 4Gb which is why the RAM doubled, 16 GDDR5 chips is probably the limit on what they can fit in the system design they are working on.


And you can't take a Newspaper's price estimate in Yen and convert it to USD, it doesn't work like that. Pricing is always set independantly in each region. (they based that off of a price estimate like I am making)


I covered all my predictions for pricing and losses based on various price targets in that Gamefaqs topic I posted above.

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post #287 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 10:03 AM - Thread Starter
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The PS4 will have 8 GB of DDR5 RAM, which will be two 4 GB modules that are only now being put into mass production for the first time (2 GB was the previous max). I don't know what you are going on about, but it's not worth fussing over. 4Gb it is.

Also, pricing of a launch product is based in large part on manufacturing costs which affects every region. Sony will use their loss-per-unit formula estimate when determining each region's price, but that loss figure is a grand total - all regions are tied together in that respect.

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post #288 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 10:21 AM
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4Gbit = 512Mbyte. They need 16 separate chips, they're going to solder onto the MB, not use DIMMs or anything like that. Maybe a reason why they didnt show the PS4 - they had to go back and make it bigger.

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post #289 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 10:35 AM - Thread Starter
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OK, now I see. Thanks for the clarification.

Wouldn't 16 chips physically take up the same room, whether they were 2Gb x 16 = 4GB or 4Gb x 16 = 8GB? That's assuming the density is shrunk to keep it the same size if that makes any sense.

Wht I'm getting at is that it seems unlikely that the entire APU has to be redesigned to accomodate what many are saying is a relatively recent switch from 4GB to 8GB of RAM. I would think that the current design accomodates it now that the chips have doubled earlier this year.

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post #290 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by joeblow View Post

OK, now I see. Thanks for the clarification.

Wouldn't 16 chips physically take up the same room, whether they were 2Gb x 16 = 4GB or 4Gb x 16 = 8GB? That's assuming the density are shrunk to keep it the same size if that makes any sense.

Most likely, but they could have been planning to use 4Gb x 8, and now have to redesign and make room. Each chip is about the size of a thumbnail, so they're small, but not insignificant.
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Wht I'm getting at is that it seems unlikely that the entire APU has to be redesigned to accomodate what many are saying is a relatively recent switch from 4GB to 8GB of RAM. I would think that the current design accomodates it now that the chips have doubled earlier this year.

The APU absolutely doesn't, but the motherboard might.

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post #291 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 11:16 AM
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The 4Gb chips started production sooner than expected. My guess is that is what led to the upgrade more than anything, most devs didn't even know about the upgrade until the Sony event, and those at the show found out shortly before the show.

Prior to that the dev kit Killzone was running on had 2.2GB of RAM, the newest devkits going out may not have the full RAM either, at least not until the production ramps up. Final devkits will hit anywhere from May to August.

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post #292 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 01:19 PM - Thread Starter
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Let me ask you; how much do you think Sony is willing to bleed per unit during the first round of PS4 sales? Keep in mind that once adjusted for inflation, each 60 GB PS3 launch unit cost Sony $275 in today's dollar ($240 back then). Like I said above, I'm guessing a $125 loss per PS4.

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post #293 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 01:58 PM
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Not including the PSEye with every system will be suicidal, or at least dumb, esp when the next Xbox will have Kinect 2 built in.

 

We really have no way of knowing what kind of deal Sony got on part pricing, how much they had to pay for the custom APU vs guaranteed orders etc. But its also clear Sony can't really expect to sell at anything more than $450, not in this economy and not after the perception from PS3's launch that its an expensive system.

 

They have a pretty good impression and hype built from the announcement. What they need to keep this going and make PS4 a success -

 

1. Bundle in the PSEye with every system

2. Keep online play free, add fancy streaming features from Gaikai to PS+ subscribers

3. Bundle in PS+ with every PS3 at a heavy discount, and a 1-3 months free trial

4. Advertise heavily on the main strength - Sony exclusives and single player focused games

5. Announce a PS Vita price cut, or new version of Vita, and bundle it

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post #294 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 02:15 PM
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Not including the PSEye with every system will be suicidal, or at least dumb, esp when the next Xbox will have Kinect 2 built in.

It is suicide not to copy the competition? What about the tablet controller? Is the lack of that suicide? Sony should play to Sony's stregnths. Let Wii U drive its BOM with a tablet, let the 720 drive up its BOM with a camera. Sony could have the better system, putting resources into the base unit . They could sell it as a peripheral for $50, like they have for two gens.

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1. Bundle in the PSEye with every system
2. Keep online play free, add fancy streaming features from Gaikai to PS+ subscribers
3. Bundle in PS+ with every PS3 at a heavy discount, and a 1-3 months free trial
4. Advertise heavily on the main strength - Sony exclusives and single player focused games
5. Announce a PS Vita price cut, or new version of Vita, and bundle it

There will be nothing to offer with PS+ for the PS4 for some while, the same thing was true for the Vita. So what would bundling it do, highlight the lack of stuff to give away? I'm not sure why they would advertise based on single player gaming either, they are pushing social gaming and the "share" button. The PS4 will have every MP-centric feature the competition will have.

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post #295 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 02:39 PM
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It is suicide not to copy the competition? What about the tablet controller? Is the lack of that suicide? Sony should play to Sony's stregnths. Let Wii U drive its BOM with a tablet, let the 720 drive up its BOM with a camera. Sony could have the better system, putting resources into the base unit . They could sell it as a peripheral for $50, like they have for two gens.

 

It should be bundled so everyone has it and game developers can make use of it. Hardly any game makes use of the Move, and its pretty good tech, certainly better than the Wii. This is the same reasoning MS is using to bundle Kinect.

 

Is it needed for games? Maybe not for every genre. But certainly with all the sharing stuff Sony is planning, having video chat built-in is going to be a huge marketing point. The fact that they have support in the DS4 tells me they will do this.

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post #296 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 02:56 PM - Thread Starter
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I would think that the main PS+ offerings for the PS4 on day one revolve around Gaikai streaming and maybe some good launch discounts for 1st party digital titles.

I'm 50/50 on whether or not I think the PSEye2 will be included. The DS4's light bar suggests that it may, at least in a deluxe PS4 SKU, but if they want to sell the console at a bare minimum price, it would be an easy target to remove.

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post #297 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 05:08 PM
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Sony built the Move into the Dualshock 4, there is no reason to not just include the camera with every unit and ensure it works with every console. They could leave it out of the basic and shave about $35 off the wholesale price...

As for Joe's $125 max loss, you are within the ballpark of a $299 base price...

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post #298 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 05:10 PM
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I hope they still sell the regular Move controllers for the sake of those starting with PS4. I can't imagine swinging around that controller playing Table Tennis. smile.gif
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post #299 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeblow View Post

I would think that the main PS+ offerings for the PS4 on day one revolve around Gaikai streaming and maybe some good launch discounts for 1st party digital titles.

I'm 50/50 on whether or not I think the PSEye2 will be included. The DS4's light bar suggests that it may, at least in a deluxe PS4 SKU, but if they want to sell the console at a bare minimum price, it would be an easy target to remove.

I don't know, the way Sony pushes Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if in lieu of a launch game bundle, they offered 1-3 months of Plus with a launch day first-party title in the Plus IGC along the lines of Knack, inFamous Second Son, or Killzone Shadow Fall.
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post #300 of 18589 Old 03-06-2013, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zookster View Post

I don't know, the way Sony pushes Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if in lieu of a launch game bundle, they offered 1-3 months of Plus with a launch day first-party title in the Plus IGC along the lines of Knack, inFamous Second Son, or Killzone Shadow Fall.

I can totally see that for a higher end bundle. The game isn't physically packed in, but if its a free DL with plus on day one, so it might as well be.

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