PS3 expected to "win" console war with 75M by 2010 - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 07:14 AM - Thread Starter
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http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...85&newsLang=en

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Research and Markets: The Sony Playstation 3 Is Expected To Win The Console War In The Long Term With An Install Base Of Around 75 Million Globally By 2010

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c47765

Transforming Global Video Games Market: The Emergence of Next Generation Gaming to their offering.

This brief considers the impact of next-generation consoles on the online games sector, assessing whether online services will reach their mass market potential.

Scope of this title:

* Provides an analysis of primary drivers for online games use as well as for the adoption of the next-generation of video game consoles.
* Highlights game types and principle players within the evolving video games market.
* Addresses current growth trends in the console and handheld markets across major geographic sectors.

Highlights of this title:

Key drivers are spurring the adoption of video games both online and offline. Broadband penetration is prompting the consumption of online material and the use of online social media. Demographics are also shifting with the average gamer being around 33 years old.

The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.

The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360.

Can we trust the Irish?

Being serious here, I don't think they can do it. I mean, if MS couldn't sell 10 million 360s, then what makes these people think Sony can sell 25 million units each year?

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post #2 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 09:30 AM
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I wish I could be an analyst, you get paid just to write pure BS. There is no way Sony will sell 25 million units a year for the next three years. Just ridiculous.

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post #3 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 09:56 AM
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sounds like pure bull to me.... cost of living and the price for the ps3 wont go down for another 2 years

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post #4 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by RAVEN56706 View Post

sounds like pure bull to me.... cost of living and the price for the ps3 wont go down for another 2 years

At least 50 percent of the current PS2 owners will migrate to the PS3 in the next 2 years. The PS3 will drop in price by $100 by end of 2007. The PSP dropped in price by $100 in one year. They will probably add wireless and memory card reader to the 20 gb PS3, and drop the price down to $399 for Christmas 2007.

Remember the PS3 is only $100 more than the premium Xbox 360 but includes the bluray player...Sony is right there...

$299 is the magic number to blow it wide open...this will happen in christmas 2008. $100 a year drop.

The magic number for the PSP is $150..but to really sale the PSP will be a redesign verison with 8 gigs of Flash memory built in and dual analog sticks for $150 price and a 30 GB harddrive version for $199.

Also lower the slimsline PS2 to $99 this summer...

Sony will then dominate no doubt....even if there are PS3 sitting at best buy right now...it will only make sony drop the price of the PS3 faster.

The next wave of software will come out in feb and march 07..that is only 2 months!

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post #5 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:25 AM
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makes sense. I think the emergence of blu-ray movies will alos be a factor in the PS3s succes over the 360. The concept of an all-in-one system should keep the PS3 going strong until microsoft develops a replacement for the 360 that can top it.

I think Sony did the smart thing by going with Blu-ray from a gaming perspective too.. The increased capacity will give the PS3 "room to grow" over the next few years while Microsoft will be stuck with their current abilities.
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post #6 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:42 AM
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"The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360."

So the study says the PS3 will dominate, but will still lose market share to the Xbox360. Sounds like wishful thinking. If they lose too much market share, they will not dominate. The fact that their predicting that loss of market share is a bad sign. And since they're increasing the launch price by 50% over the last unit, you must assume that they will sell fewer.

If Blueray is anything less then the giant success that they are hoping for, the PS3 will be in trouble. They were relying on exclusive games, but they are few and far between. I have a feeling that Blueray will either make or break the PS3.

IMO The Xbox 360 will dominate unless Bluray becomes the next big thing. Seems risky for a company like Sony.
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post #7 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:45 AM
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Well, Sony started real slow with the PS2, and it still owns the market today. And the first Xbox sold better in Japan than the 360 has been selling.

I think the real spoiler is not the 360, but the Wii. It sold 4 million units in 3 months. That shames everyone. Now just imagine if they were able to ship more units... one could argue the demand is a result of limited supply, but THIS kind of demand!?!?

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post #8 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tripjammer View Post

At least 50 percent of the current PS2 owners will migrate to the PS3 in the next 2 years..

You realize there are over 100 million ps2s out there? So you're saying, 50% of them will buy ps2s in the next two years? 25 million ps3s this year and next?

Please pass whatever you are smoking.
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post #9 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 11:09 AM
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By 2010, it will be time for a new XBOX... consoles refresh every 5 years give/take, right?
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post #10 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 11:18 AM - Thread Starter
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You mean 2009, right?

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post #11 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 11:22 AM
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The magic number for the PS2 was $199. I would expect that the magic number for the PS3 will be $299. Until that point its not going to gain the mass market acceptance that the PS2 enjoyed.

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post #12 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 12:08 PM
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$299 Sounds about right for the PS3 in two years, although I doubt that the gap between console leader and second place is going to be as large as it was this previous generation. Still, I think if the Wii goes $150 or even $100 in two years, most anyone that doesn't have one already would pick one up, provided that the library of third party games is more impressive than that of the Gamecube. 360 will definately do better than the clunky Xbox, but it's not going to win just because Nintendo and Sony have a better rep with video games.

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post #13 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 12:55 PM
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299.00 won't be the magic number in two years, nor will the price drop 100.00 per year over the next two years, because Sony is already taking a substantial loss per console. Cost in real dollars in two years will make a 399.00 price tag more realistic, as in 399.00 won't seem to be that much in two years.


Digital cameras have enjoyed the top spot as the most purchased consumer electronic product for a year or so. Not this past year. In 2006, LCD tv's took over as number one.

By the end of this year, 2007, LCD prices are going to drop another 30%

Most LCD tvs are now in the 500.00-800.00 range for a 26-32 inch. 30% off of 600.00 would make an LCD tv sub 500.00 and put it at a 399.00 price point. Watch those suckers fly off the shelves next year and along with them a PS3.
Two things will play into the success of the PS3, but more importantly HDTV. Consumers and the market will dictate when these products are more readily accepted and used.
I called this about LCD tv's 3 years ago downplaying plasmas and going against a knowledgable and strong plasma advocate who is a well known and respected forum member.

I am calling for the same with the PS3, albeit I am a bit biased and optimistic. I am Irish . My parents are from there. I think the PS3 is not only underrated, but the negative sentiment surrounding it will die as any lie should die. The truth and capability of the PS3 will win out.
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post #14 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 10:47 PM
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Sounds feasible. I'm sure the analysts took into account every factor you could possibly think of (household incomes, competition, price drops, blu-ray market, etc..) since that's what analysts do. Of course they could be off. I agree though. I've been saying that Sony will clearly win from the beginning. We'll see.
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post #15 of 25 Old 01-02-2007, 11:34 PM
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Analysts have such nice jobs. They are usually payed to predict things which turn out to be wrong half the time. They never predicted when the original playstation was released that it would allow Sony to overtake Nintendo and Sega in the video game market.

Analysts were also predicting the PSP will vastly outsell the DS by millions of units: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...k=view&id=2118
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post #16 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 12:32 AM
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you'll have another xbox by that time maybe 720X

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post #17 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 12:52 AM
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PS3 will never sell 75 million by 2010 , even if they dropped the price to $299 by Xmas 2008 it still will not happen . My guess is there will not even be 15 million by the end of 07 so that would leave 2 years to sell another 60 million which is only viable in Sony's dreams . So even if the PS3 ends up the market leader it still will not reach those numbers by 2010 IMO . This is not a knock at Sony or the PS3 , just calling BS on the analyst prediction numbers . Let us not forget either that ALL of these companies have been known to use any marketing strategy possible to help sales ( maybe even paying some analysts to say they are going to win the console war in order to relax peoples fear of possibly purchasing the losing console ) .

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post #18 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 01:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecrazykevy View Post

Analysts have such nice jobs. They are usually payed to predict things which turn out to be wrong half the time. They never predicted when the original playstation was released that it would allow Sony to overtake Nintendo and Sega in the video game market.

Analysts were also predicting the PSP will vastly outsell the DS by millions of units: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...k=view&id=2118

In your link they said "in the next 5 years" the psp will outsell DS so we have 4 more years left to find out since the article was written a year ago to this month.
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post #19 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 04:04 AM
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The biggest mistake many are making about the PS3 saying it is not selling or it is going to fail is that they are usually from the US and think of only the US market. Europe, Japan, and Australia are Sony and PS3 markets.

In particular, there is a strong bias in favor of MS and the 360 here in the Northwest, especially in the Seattle area, Washington and Oregon. I live in Oregon, yet I have friends in Japan, and relatives in Europe and Australia. The sentiment in those countries about consoles is different than the US.
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post #20 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 04:32 AM
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http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

According to Sony's own numbers, it took them 4.5 years to sell 75 million PS2's. There is no way the PS3 is going to sell 50% faster than the PS2.
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post #21 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 05:07 AM
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There is also another factor. There are also those who are going to buy the PS3 for Blu Ray and not for gaming. Even some of those who already have bought it for Blu Ray who are not gamers at all are trying their hand at gaming. None of us can predict the future, even based on past trends or product loyalty. Time will tell and if a product is good enough it will generally sell itself.
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post #22 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 05:09 AM
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post #23 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 05:32 AM
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^^ Since we are not in HELL, it doesn't apply.
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post #24 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 05:40 AM
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Quote "They will probably add wireless and memory card reader to the 20 gb PS3"

Wouldn't that be just putting a 20GB hard drive in the 60GB PS3? I wonder why you think they would change the 20GB ps3 by adding a card reader and wireless. Any sources for that info or was that just a hunch?

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post #25 of 25 Old 01-03-2007, 05:51 AM
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