i personally think consumers will still go for hd-dvd in the end simply because of the acronyms it uses, which are now permanently etched into our brains. people will see 'dvd' and 'hd' and they will automatically come to the conclusion that it is the dvd that will play on their hdtv. if anyone has an uphill battle, it's sony - early lead or not.
Toshiba is loosing support for their format, that’s why they are pushing back there date, they have no choice. They are ready to release the hardware this fall but without software, no one is going to buy it. The TV and Movie industry does not want this war; they do not want to sink a ton’s of money in a format that might not make it. Blu-ray has 4 studios too HD-DVD’s 2, Universal pictures said they would exclusively support HD-DVD and last week they joined Blu-Rays Disk association, they have not jumped ship from HD-DVD yet but it means there looking.
Originally Posted by Big John Thomas
i personally think consumers will still go for hd-dvd in the end simply because of the acronyms it uses, which are now permanently etched into our brains. people will see 'dvd' and 'hd' and they will automatically come to the conclusion that it is the dvd that will play on their hdtv. if anyone has an uphill battle, it's sony - early lead or not.
just my 2 cents.
You know HD-DVD could win because of the nature of the American public...
H. L. Mencken once said "No one ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American public" (published about 80 years ago and still applies to those who like to buy inferior formats like VHS, HD-DVD, etc. )
I wish College was mandatory in this country - That would ensure the superior formats would win on their own merits, not because of a name like HD - DVD from a marketing department. Also explains the proliferation of Windows PCs in this world, but thats for another forum
2) Even though I have said for he better part of this year (if not from last year) that I did not think Toshiba and HD-DVD will come out this year in a real way, I have read too many BS articles like "PS3 drops router", "Toshiba ready to give in to BR", "PS3 6x BR drive"..... so i will wait for something more official
3) I think it is nuts to think that if there are no players or movies on the shelves that the American public is dumb enough to still go HD-DVD.
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
3) I think it is nuts to think that if there are no players or movies on the shelves that the American public is dumb enough to still go HD-DVD.
you're assuming people will actually want to change to an hd format in the next year. i don't think the general public cares. the real value of the dvd format vs tape was almost all in the functionality, not image quality (size, durability, extra content, interactivity, longevity, etc.). i personally believe it will take a few years before hd discs of any kind take off, and by then hd-dvd will be out. i think to assume most people want to start re-buying everything again and spending more on a movie solely for a jump in image quality is, as you say, nuts.
i personally believe it will take a few years before hd discs of any kind take off, and by then hd-dvd will be out
by then the war will be over and there will just be one victor, hopefully BR. We must look at early adaptors, they are the ones that decide the formats not the people waiting for 30$ players
As quoted from the news release on the main page of the AVSForum;
"Last month, representatives from the Blu-ray camp said they hoped that any delay in the launch of HD DVD could be used for further efforts to agree on a single, unified format."
I agree with Big John that the market will be slow to embrace BR or HD-DVD if/when it comes to market. Sure the enthusiasts will be scrambling, but they are a small percent of the total picture. The unfortunate reality is that launching either of these formats with the current economic conditions in this country will mean very slow growth after the initial rush is over. When most consumers are looking at $4/gallon for gasoline and when this winter's heating bills start rolling in, upgrading from standard DVD will not be high on the list of priorities.
Originally Posted by SlickVik
I wish College was mandatory in this country - That would ensure the superior formats would win on their own merits, not because of a name like HD - DVD from a marketing department. Also explains the proliferation of Windows PCs in this world, but thats for another forum
Two comments:
-Just because someone has a college education, even from a great school, doesn't mean they will understand the difference between two formats and have the basic knowledge to choose which is better. I'm sure my mother, who has her degree in education, will never be able to understand anything about either one of these formats. Heck, my dad, with his MSEE, might have a hard time deciphering what information is BS-marketing and what actually matters. Let's focus on getting rid of 1000W HTiBs first
-Windows has a much large following because of its user friendliness (well, as long as Windows is working as MS intended) along with its huge library of software. I love the speed and efficiency of linux and Mac OSs, but linux is severely lacking user friendliness and doesn't have a great library of software that I need, and Mac is lacking the software I need.
-Just because someone has a college education, even from a great school, doesn't mean they will understand the difference between two formats and have the basic knowledge to choose which is better. I'm sure my mother, who has her degree in education, will never be able to understand anything about either one of these formats. Heck, my dad, with his MSEE, might have a hard time deciphering what information is BS-marketing and what actually matters. Let's focus on getting rid of 1000W HTiBs first
Originally Posted by bknauss
Just because someone has a college education, even from a great school, doesn't mean they will understand the difference between two formats and have the basic knowledge to choose which is better.
agreed. add that to the fact that many people, college educated or not, just don't care yet. we're assuming everyone is interested, or will soon be interested, in hd. despite hd programming already being available and highly advertised, not a single person i know is interested in paying for it, tech geeks or not. again, hd-dvd will be out for a long time before that market takes off. i honestly think hd video will become standard only because the industry will force it the be the new standard - definitely not due to consumer demand. if that's the case, expect a very slow adoption rate.
also, i don't think the rate of hdtv consumption is directly indicative of the number of people that will embrace hd content. i believe a large number of hdtv owners bought hd sets to have large tv's (and hd support in them is pretty well standard now). they are not necessarily going to pay more for hd content, despite having the ability to view it. i don't buy dvd-audio discs simply because i have a surround sound system. i buy the regular, stereo cd since i can use it on all the cd players i own. plus, it still sounds great on my stereo system anyway.
This is the main reason why the PS3's use of blu-ray technology will be so significant. If lots of people buy a PS3 to play PS3 games (which will happen), they will then also have a blu-ray player to play blu-ray movies. That's significant.
A lot of people were intersted in DVD's, but somewhat ambivalent to adopting the media until the PS2 came out. I know many people who aren't as A/V interested as I am who's sole DVD player is a PS2. There were others who bought a PS2 simply to get a "cheap" (for the time) DVD player.
My bet is that the PS3 will have a similar (perhaps a little less pronounced) effect on the next gen disc format war.
Originally Posted by eawil
This is the main reason why the PS3's use of blu-ray technology will be so significant. If lots of people buy a PS3 to play PS3 games (which will happen), they will then also have a blu-ray player to play blu-ray movies. That's significant.
agreed. that will be a much larger factor than the "late arrival" of hd-dvd.
First imagine we are "average" consumers, and not A/V lovers. Next, imagine that HD-DVD, and Blu-Ray are out in the market right now. You go to the store, and you purchase a PS3 to play games for yourself, or your kids, or your husband / wife, or whatever. For (hypothetically) $450.
You then hook that up to your HD set (which are becoming more popular). You can then go out and pay an additional $500 for a HD-DVD player, or you can use your PS3 to play Blu-Ray movies which are basically the same....
The most likely choice will be to stick with the Blu-Ray format. Why pay an extra $500 when I have just-as-good if not better with my PS3 that I already have?
Good concurrent thread that goes with this one. By happenstance, I've already posted my thoughts on this subject more in depth over there, but hopefully we can get some cross pollination on these two very good threads.
Dont forget the countless number of early HD buyers are locked out of both formats because its HDMI only for actual HD playback. I still say over 80% of HD owners cant even play back either format. Its insane you ask me, slow going for either format you ask me.
I think a lot of speculation of it's death is premature. Is there really going to be any penetration of Blue-Ray on '05? No. So basically it is delayed to '06 as well. It's not like this is a huge delay since they weren't planning release until end of '05.
Originally Posted by eawil
This is the main reason why the PS3's use of blu-ray technology will be so significant. If lots of people buy a PS3 to play PS3 games (which will happen), they will then also have a blu-ray player to play blu-ray movies. That's significant.
It's a solid number but I don't think it's enough to determine the standard. Doesn't the PS3 sound like a late '06 release?
Originally Posted by HorrorScope
It's a solid number but I don't think it's enough to determine the standard. Doesn't the PS3 sound like a late '06 release?
Last word was mid '06.
Why would 500,000 Blu-Ray units sold on the first day not be enough to determine a standard?
I doubt the PS3 will have as much of an effect on Blu-Ray adoption as the PS2 did on DVD.
I just can't see many people who aren't into Home Theatre as a hobby caring about Blu-Ray in the short term.
A lot of people have HDTVs but they still haven't figured out they need to set their $25 Nova DVD player to 16:9 to get all of the resolution of current DVDs. DVD was adopted based on convenience more than quality. My feeling is next gen formats will be much slower to catch on than DVD was.
Originally Posted by Version
I doubt the PS3 will have as much of an effect on Blu-Ray adoption as the PS2 did on DVD.
I think it will have a much stronger effect. DVD was already a standard when the PS2 came out. There wasn't really any competing disc based movie formats (Laserdisc doesn't really count in this case)
Let us examine it this way:
Say Sony releases their PS3 in July of `06. Say that in February of `06 Toshiba and Sony both release their next generation disc formats.
As you said, the average person won't really see the need to go out and buy a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player. So they don't buy either one.
Now, the PS3 is released in the middle of `06. Suddenly 500,000 US households own a Blu-Ray player (conservative estimate on launch size). Before the number might have been 20,000 total owners of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Now 25 times that amount own Blu-Ray players in just one day.....
On top of that, the numbers would grow every month. Everyone could then go out and purchase a HD-DVD player for an additional $500, but as we both agree, the average consumer won't do that.
That's a huge benefit, and effectively ends the format war.
Now I do see a way that Toshiba could counter this: and that's by having Microsoft adopt the HD-DVD standard for the third Xbox 360 sku. That way the format could live on through the later adopters of the 360 product line. But Microsoft has indicated that they'll go with a more popular format, even if that format is Sony's.
Blah, there is plenty to keep blu-ray from dominating the market...
1) cost.... 800+ dollar players? not going to dominate anything...dvd players are like 80 bucks now... dvd is the format that needs to be dethroned not HD-DVD.
2)the cheapest blu-ray player you'll see will be in the ps3 and that wont hit until 2006 anyways...and that will STILL be too expensive to make it replace dvd players.
3)HDTV still isn't that big yet...most people have no reason to upgrade.
4)The movie houses are STILL split between the tech....what happens when people what a movie for blu-ray....but that studio only makes it for HD-DVD??? the masses notice and say yooo ...its to early.
My take... the technology doesn't matter...they both do the same thing...doesn't matter who's first to market with it either....
It's all about the studios agreeing on ONE format. and until that happens neither will dominate...and if they can never agree??? some buy-outs need to happen...something i don't see too far fetched since the industry is struggling right now. And when one side has a significant majority...the minority will have to fold.
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