Blu-ray - The Emperor's New Clothes? - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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post #181 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 02:14 PM
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Exactly, meaning all of those users are guaranteed to be content buyers, likely with High Def displays and likely with high attach rates to HD DVD movies. If PS3 comes in the backdoor a lot of Blu Ray users won't even have a high def TV to play the movies on.
agree, but the point still remains that you don't get anyone else. In other words let's assume the fans are evenly split. They should buy the same way (i.e. should not be different) on the other hand you have all the people that don't care (maybe that don't have HDTV) and go to the rental place and think .50$ more for the BR version is worth it to see what BR can do. Or that go to the store and think 2$ more for the movie is worth seeing what this BR is all about. These guys might not buy as much as the HD fan, but will add a lot because they are so many. I doubt anyone has bought the PSP for movies but movies are outselling games.
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post #182 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by srohde
Which is the entire point of the question I'm asking. Are the computer companies going to switch sides? From their press release they seem to believe certain things that MS is says just aren't true. If those computer companies come to the conclusion that MS is right, are they going to switch sides?

After all, either MS is right or they are wrong. The things the computer companies believe contradict the things that MS believe. Someone is right and it is just a matter of time before one or the other figure out they were wrong. If MS is right, and the computer companies figure it out, are they going to change sides?
Computer companies did not pick BD to play movies....They picked it for 50GB recordable disks.
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post #183 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 02:24 PM
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A. Is it safe to assume that 30g hd-dvd-r discs will be available in the springtime?

don't know if it is in the specs yet, Toshiba just announced not that long ago they managed to get it working. On the other hand there is time to get it in the specs. At this time I don't think anyone can give an answer

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B. I read that the spec for hd-dvd recorder spead can go up to 6x - 8x speed, how fast will these initial recorders be?
I think Toshiba said they managed to get a 2x working. Due to the deeper depth HD-DVD needs a stronger laser then BD.
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post #184 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 02:48 PM
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That may be but this is NOT a replacement for hybrid. If studios put SD on one disc and HD on the other, then folks will sell the SD version to a friend which makes the situation non-workable.
agree, but it does show that HD-DVD supporters are talking from both sides of the mouth. Yes SL HD-DVD is most likely cheaper then BR and there is a chance that the same is true for BR, but I think there is no chance that HD-DVD hybrid is cheaper. Like you admitted here 30GB is more capacity and studios have that available but nothing forces them to go that high.

the thing is even if we assume there is no 50GB BR the scenarios are

15GB HD-DVD -cheaper then BR but inadequate
30GBHD-DVD -roughly the same in both ways (cost/capacity) with slight advantage to HD-DVD
2x2 HD-DVD - way more expensive then BR


so pick a poison and run with it.

----------------------------


also you are telling us a replicator told you 50GB is a pipe dream.

now like I said before, I tend to believe what you say and will take your word that someone told you that.

1) when, always important when we are talking a forming tech. If it was in Jan, I would call it irrelevant, if today it is different

2) according to you there are no lines for any BR, so how would he have info on the availability of BR. If Sony, Pany and the rest have not yet perfected the lines are they necessarily giving a day to day report on the subject.

3) I might trust you, I think you are biased and you might downplay BR and up play HD-DVD but I still don't have any reason to think you would lie. On the other hand without knowing who it is, I hope you can understand that I will not take it as a fact. For all I know he was trying to get people to go HD-DVD as a safer bet
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post #185 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ToddD
Computer companies did not pick BD to play movies....They picked it for 50GB recordable disks.
But that is a very simplistic answer and doesn't take into account media center at all.

I agree that blu-ray has advantages as a recordable format. 50 > 30 and someday transfer speeds might be faster.

However, if I want to buy a media center pc I want one with hd-dvd in it. I think 1mc and native support is going to provide for a better experience. MS will undoubtalbly advertise the heck out of this too.

Do you think that means nothing to computer companies?
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post #186 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by srohde
But that is a very simplistic answer and doesn't take into account media center at all.

I agree that blu-ray has advantages as a recordable format. 50 > 30 and someday transfer speeds might be faster.

However, if I want to buy a media center pc I want one with hd-dvd in it. I think 1mc and native support is going to provide for a better experience. MS will undoubtalbly advertise the heck out of this too.

Do you think that means nothing to computer companies?
Not as much as traditional computer operations....thats were they make their living from the Ford's and GM's and other LARGE customers....their consumer lines are almost ( and yes that was almost) a loss leader kind of product with margins in the low single digits.....it's the corporate $$ that we all make our living on in the computer business.
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post #187 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ToddD
Not as much as traditional computer operations....thats were they make their living from the Ford's and GM's and other LARGE customers....their consumer lines are almost ( and yes that was almost) a loss leader kind of product with margins in the low single digits.....it's the corporate $$ that we all make our living on in the computer business.
Those customers are demanding blu-ray?

EDIT: ok, my remark here was overly simplistic too. Sorry. I admit that anyone who requires doing archival or storage on optical disc would prefer blu-ray.
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post #188 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 05:33 PM
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Beta ,I mean bluray(sorry) is having alot of problems with protective coating on the discs among other issues.If you want to believe the hype go ahead but Intel and microsoft would not side with HD-DVD just for grins.They have to believe that this is the best technology for the medium that can be easily advanced and built apon or they would not go with it.
Think about it!
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post #189 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 06:20 PM
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no they sided with them because HD-DVD was desperate for some positive publicity and are willing to give in to anything.
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post #190 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by steviec
Beta ,I mean bluray(sorry) is having alot of problems with protective coating on the discs among other issues.If you want to believe the hype go ahead but Intel and microsoft would not side with HD-DVD just for grins.They have to believe that this is the best technology for the medium that can be easily advanced and built apon or they would not go with it.
Think about it!
I have seen you post this here on two or so threads...and I just can't stand it any more :) Microsoft and Intel did not pick a format for your interests....they picked one for their interests. Best does not enter into the equation....one that meets their needs is what they decided on....make your own conclusion on your needs not on theirs!
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post #191 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by ToddD
I have seen you post this here on two or so threads...and I just can't stand it any more :) Microsoft and Intel did not pick a format for your interests....they picked one for their interests. Best does not enter into the equation....one that meets their needs is what they decided on....make your own conclusion on your needs not on theirs!
Please read my post from yesterday where I explained the logic between our choice and that of BD companies. Net summary: neither Microsoft or Intel care about patent royalties when it comes to selecting one of these formats. So while you are correct in saying that we do look out for the interest of our business, I would say our motives for the most part more "pure" than that of BD companies. As a way of example, neither Intel or Microsoft would care if BD came to us and offered cash/IP royalties to support them. I assure you that the same can not be said of some of the BD companies.

The above lets us make our choices for the best format much easier.

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post #192 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by amirm
Please read my post from yesterday where I explained the logic between our choice and that of BD companies. Net summary: neither Microsoft or Intel care about patent royalties when it comes to selecting one of these formats. So while you are correct in saying that we do look out for the interest of our business, I would say our motives for the most part more "pure" than that of BD companies. As a way of example, neither Intel or Microsoft would care if BD came to us and offered cash/IP royalties to support them. I assure you that the same can not be said of some of the BD companies.

The above lets us make our choices for the best format much easier.

Amir
Please don't think that my comments do not reflect what you said. I understand that your purity is not related to IP income. I'm only pointing out that your choice is made to reflect the directions that you see for product possibility. They are made for your internal reasons and that they may not be the same as someone here or elsewhere...

Like you I wish you had never had to make a choice....but as there is one some of us will go one way and some another.....
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post #193 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 07:43 PM
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How impure of the BD companies which have spent millions and years to develop a new technology to want to get returns on that investment. :confused:
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post #194 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81
How impure of the BD companies which have spent millions and years to develop a new technology to want to get returns on that investment. :confused:
Is this a shot at my comment? If so, it is out of line because you missed the point. I didn't say they don't deserve to make money. I said that they use their money (really future revenues) to buy support of others. But I didn't even object to this. I simply said because of their history here, they are less likely to make decisions purely for the sake of the consumer.

What they are doing is reducing the level of consensus building in the industry based on proper merits of each technology. Indeed, this has been the most frustrating part of going through this process for us. We could have a great discussion, showing a BD company why HD DVD is better, then they say, “you are right, but we make a few bucks more with BD so we are going to stay with it.†This, I would say is wrong. Not illegal. Not even improper when it comes to business ethics. But wrong if the interest of the consumer is your priority.

Amir
P.S. I would love to see you be this generous if Microsoft was involved. I am sure you would be calling us every name in the book if we had practiced what you are defending here :).

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post #195 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by amirm
I would say our motives for the most part more "pure" than that of BD companies. As a way of example, neither Intel or Microsoft would care if BD came to us and offered cash/IP royalties to support them......

The above lets us make our choices for the best format much easier.
gag.....choke.....sputter.

Sorry. Laughing so hard and unexpectedly from reading this, that I almost regurgitated my dinner.

"What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god."

William Shakespeare

I've decided to change my mind and support the HD-DVD group. Because I too, would like to transcend and share their higher plane of existence. Ommmmmmm. :rolleyes:

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post #196 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by amirm
What they are doing is reducing the level of consensus building in the industry based on proper merits of each technology. Indeed, this has been the most frustrating part of going through this process for us. We could have a great discussion, showing a BD company why HD DVD is better, then they say, “you are right, but we make a few bucks more with BD so we are going to stay with it.†This, I would say is wrong. Not illegal. Not even improper when it comes to business ethics. But wrong if the interest of the consumer is your priority.

Amir
P.S. I would love to see you be this generous if Microsoft was involved. I am sure you would be calling us every name in the book if we had practiced what you are defending here :).
So you're implying that Blu-Ray products will be priced much higher than HD-DVD products in order to provide bigger margins for the BD companies?

We shall see.

As for consensus building, if I'm not mistaken, there are more companies behind Blu-Ray than HD-DVD.

And seriously, this is one of the rare times I've heard an executive at a for-profit company suggest the consumer is a higher priority than the shareholders. If the BD companies really think they can make more money from Blu-Ray than HD-DVD, shouldn't they be pursuing profit maximization?

Or is Microsoft going to take pennies on the dollar for Office 12 and Vista because of their concern for the consumer? ;) I'll take my Xbox 360 for $50 now. :p
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post #197 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81
So you're implying that Blu-Ray products will be priced much higher than HD-DVD products in order to provide bigger margins for the BD companies?
No I didn’t say this. Why are you saying things I didn't? You do more of this below.

For all I know, Sony will go out of business bankrolling BD. Or they may choose to pass on the cost to consumers. The Jury is out.

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As for consensus building, if I'm not mistaken, there are more companies behind Blu-Ray than HD-DVD.
Well, you are mistaken. ~250 companies are in DVD Forum, many of whom participate in creating the HD DVD standard. Some of the companies are even BD members! Take Disney. They are super active in the iHD/interactivity working group. Same is true of others such as Samsung, Thomson, etc. Sony/Philips and MEI are the only three that sit it out.

Let’s look at this in more detail. The DVD Forum process is so open that the opposing camp gets to not only influence it, they get to approve or disapprove its features!

You see how preposterous your statement is now?

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And seriously, this is one of the rare times I've heard an executive at a for-profit company suggest the consumer is a higher priority than the shareholders.
Where do you get this stuff? I didn't say this. I was VERY clear that what we did was in the interest of our business. I also said what BD companies did was not wrong or unethical wrt to their business. I simply made a statement that in this situation, they are more likely to sacrifice consumer interest for the benefit of their own whereas we are less motivated to do so, on a relative basis.

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If the BD companies really think they can make more money from Blu-Ray than HD-DVD, shouldn't they be pursuing profit maximization?
Of course they can. Now are you ready to admit then that their choices are not always in your best interest? And if so, why defend them at all cost?

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Or is Microsoft going to take pennies on the dollar for Office 12 and Vista because of their concern for the consumer? ;) I'll take my Xbox 360 for $50 now. :p
Actually, you are getting a damn good bargain in any console. Any more than that and we would have to pay your electric bills to run it!

Amir

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post #198 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 09:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Dahlsim
Exactly, meaning all of those users are guaranteed to be content buyers, likely with High Def displays and likely with high attach rates to HD DVD movies. If PS3 comes in the backdoor a lot of Blu Ray users won't even have a high def TV to play the movies on.

Not saying this isn't a plan with merit, to flood the market with cheap Blu Ray, but again a smaller # of 360 HD DVD users could potentially offset a larger # of Blu Ray users as far as the amount of content purchased.
Well, no more than the number of people buying the PS/3 specifically for BD movies. I think that situation becomes a push with a hypothetical HD DVD Xbox360.

And, if you are of the mind that hybrid HD DVDs are great idea, then the PS/3 is a format hybridizing piece of hardware. Users can buy BD movies and play them on their normal TV.

So, how many PS/3 purchasers will future proof their movie disc purchases and pick up the BD version instead of the DVD?

HD set owners + future proofers from an installed 10,000,000 unit base. How many discs is that?

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post #199 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
The hybrid is also based on DVD-18. that is what i find so funny. no one makes DVD-18 because it is not cost effective, it is cheaper to put twodisks in the box.
So this brings me back to my original question...are the flipper hybrids very expensive? Does this do anything to dull the cost benefits of HD-DVD.
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post #200 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Palladin
I think reliance on those figures could prove misleading, as they were the result of a notable price cut for this product, which obviously became necessitated because they were not selling that well. Let's see what the percentages are for Q1 2006, so they won't be artificially inflated by the holiday season either.
Those numbers are also misleading because people buy what's in front of them. If I go into Circuit City or Best by and look at the systems there, almost every single one is a Media Center PC. Sure sales are going to up when that's the choice you get. When I go to Dell.com to chose a PC, it default to XP media edition, with my other option being a $99 upgrade to XP Pro.
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post #201 of 255 Old 10-01-2005, 10:54 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81
And seriously, this is one of the rare times I've heard an executive at a for-profit company suggest the consumer is a higher priority than the shareholders.
Companies almost always give lip service to their customers. It's their actions that are shareholder motivated. It's also important to note that legally, a publicly traded company MUST do what it believe is in the best interest of its shareholders. Nothing Amir has said here contradicts this. There's some spin that makes Microsoft seem a bit more altruistic than it really is, but he's obviously stated that Microsoft has every intention of turning a profit. Regardless of what the perceived motivations, the end goal is exactly the same for every HD-DVD and BDA company: long term profit. MS can play (and pontificate about) its role as the consumer friendly company because what looks consumer friendly also meshes perfectly with their long term goals. Let me point out that Dell and HP probably feel they are being consumer friendly by offering a solution with greater capacity for burning.

If Blu-Ray discs were extremely inexpensive to replicate, but the BDA was unfriendly to the concept of 1MC and streaming the contents of the video, I bet Microsoft would (probably) still side with HD-DVD. It is in their best interest. If the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD replication numbers were the same as they are right now, but the 1MC and streaming tables were turned, Microsoft would give significantly more consideration to Blu-Ray. Obviously I'm simplifying things, and using two metrics rather than a whole slew that companies must consider to choose sides (in other words, I do not know all of Microsoft's motivations), but in the end it all comes down to what best for me and my shareholders. I don't think anyone should fault any of the players (Microsoft, Sony, Intel, Toshiba, etc...) for this.
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post #202 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Bluescale
Companies almost always give lip service to their customers. It's their actions that are shareholder motivated. It's also important to note that legally, a publicly traded company MUST do what it believe is in the best interest of its shareholders. Nothing Amir has said here contradicts this. There's some spin that makes Microsoft seem a bit more altruistic than it really is, but he's obviously stated that Microsoft has every intention of turning a profit. Regardless of what the perceived motivations, the end goal is exactly the same for every HD-DVD and BDA company: long term profit. MS can play (and pontificate about) its role as the consumer friendly company because what looks consumer friendly also meshes perfectly with their long term goals. Let me point out that Dell and HP probably feel they are being consumer friendly by offering a solution with greater capacity for burning.

If Blu-Ray discs were extremely inexpensive to replicate, but the BDA was unfriendly to the concept of 1MC and streaming the contents of the video, I bet Microsoft would (probably) still side with HD-DVD. It is in their best interest. If the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD replication numbers were the same as they are right now, but the 1MC and streaming tables were turned, Microsoft would give significantly more consideration to Blu-Ray. Obviously I'm simplifying things, and using two metrics rather than a whole slew that companies must consider to choose sides (in other words, I do not know all of Microsoft's motivations), but in the end it all comes down to what best for me and my shareholders. I don't think anyone should fault any of the players (Microsoft, Sony, Intel, Toshiba, etc...) for this.
Thats right!
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post #203 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Bluescale
Companies almost always give lip service to their customers. It's their actions that are shareholder motivated. It's also important to note that legally, a publicly traded company MUST do what it believe is in the best interest of its shareholders.
Public companies have a fiduciary responsibility to act in the best interests of their shareholders. There are federal LAWS that govern this.

If Sony had thrown away Blu-Ray, would that have been in the best interests of their shareholders?

Don't get me wrong, I doubt there are any laws that govern what choices they make to manufacture things. But the shareholders could theoretically have sued.

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post #204 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
agree, but the point still remains that you don't get anyone else. In other words let's assume the fans are evenly split. They should buy the same way (i.e. should not be different) on the other hand you have all the people that don't care (maybe that don't have HDTV) and go to the rental place and think .50$ more for the BR version is worth it to see what BR can do. Or that go to the store and think 2$ more for the movie is worth seeing what this BR is all about.

These guys might not buy as much as the HD fan, but will add a lot because they are so many. I doubt anyone has bought the PSP for movies but movies are outselling games.
Unless you're saying that the possible arrival of a future, HD DVD 360 option is negligible to the High Def race perhaps we're only debating degree of influence here?

My original statement was that currently PS3 looks to be the best potential kingmaker in the battle between HD DVD and Blu Ray based on the notion that millions of Blu Ray players will be seeded into the Market along with Sony and BD supporters own custom content.

HD DVD at this point, has no counter to PS3, on that much we agree. The point is that now that MS is off of neutral, the potential counter seems likely with the purposefully ambigously positioned Xbox 360.

Could it be equal in numbers to a Blu Ray built-in PS3 in terms of numbers. No. Could 360 HD DVD significantly offset the affect of PS3 Blu Ray on the high def playback market? I'd say the answer is Yes.

The offset would be significant depending on the combination 3 factors I mentioned, price of Blu Ray PS3, arrival time of Blu Ray PS3 and offering of HD DVD 360, or lack thereof.

Keep in mind that IF Sony sticks with built-in Blu Ray for every PS3 and IF it's priced to sell in mass numbers, it will almost certainly cost them big $$$ in the short term. Even if the addition of a 360 HD DVD option on the market simply protracted the format war it could prove *very* costly for Sony.

If 360 doesn't offer a good HD DVD option (and assuming low priced HD DVD's are not selling for ~$200 range), then yes PS3 should tip the scales in this war.

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post #205 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 01:37 PM
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"We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3," Par home entertainment prexyprexy Thomas Lesinski said in a statement. "After more detailed assessment and new data on cost, manufacturability and copy protection solutions, we have now made the decision to move ahead with the Blu-ray format."
Apparently Paramount also sees the Playstation 3 as kingmaker.

Family DVD Collection
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post #206 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 01:40 PM
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So this brings me back to my original question...are the flipper hybrids very expensive?
relatively speaking my guess is yes.

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Does this do anything to dull the cost benefits of HD-DVD.
depends if studios go with them.


My problem is the spin. The PR makes it sound (and some people that have been HD-DVD gullible) like all HD-DVD will be 2x2. If that is true then HD-DVD has no cost benefit and is most likely a more expensive then BR.
Unfortunetly no one has published the cost of the 2x2

PS we are talking in replication cost. So unlike the idiots that think BR is much more expensive so means 20$ to replicate for disk (there was somneone pushing that number) much more is talking nickles and dimes.

my guesses and from where

LG said BR <2$ DVD=.80$
my guess packaging on a DVD is almost 1/2
BR<1.60 DVD .40$ (packaging costs more)
BR needs new infrastructure, so that must be at a much higbher degree in BR

BR replication .80$ (50/50)

DVD=.40 -> HD-DVD SL =.43 (toshiba said it is a few penies more) , HD-DVD DL .60 (I think someone said it is around 50% more then DVD and 40% more then SL)

Onthe other hand all the replicators are building new lines that cost raughly the same

so my guess

SL BR=2$
SL HD-DVD = .43+.80+.40=1.63$
DL HD-DVD = .60+.80+.40=1.80$
2x2 HD-DVD = .60+.40 +.80+.40+ x=2.20+x

why for the 2x2? simply I see at as two DL disks, yes the new HD-DVD lines will be DVD/HD-DVD but they can't produce each 1/2 because it takes a long time to swictch from one to the other. So I imagine (pure guess) that each 1/2 will be done on a different line and then assembled together, so the cost of each 1/2 should be higher then each of the whole (extra inneficiency and all)
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post #207 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 01:55 PM
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Unless you're saying that the possible arrival of a future, HD DVD 360 option is negligible to the High Def race perhaps we're only debating degree of influence here?
I think it can have an effect, is there a word for between negligible and anything worth wile :)

Let me try this a different way. Have you ever been to a grocery store and tasted a free sample and bought the product because it was good and had a 1/2 price coupon? that is PS3. Now if all they had was a 1/2 price coupon you might not have bought it, yes it is 1/2 price but you still don't know if you like it.


How does it apply here? Sony is putting a BR in each house that has a PS3, I am guessing these people will see they have BR drive and see the hoopla about next generation video and a lot of them, even if they have a small TV connected using composite, will decide to try it just to see what all this stuff is about. On the other hand if someone has a 360 with DVD drive he won't spend any money to upgrade to HD-DVD just to be able to try out HD-DVD. Someone that wants HD-DVD might consider it a cheaper solution then a player and buy it (I want/have a 360 and I want HD-DVD) but the I want HD-DVD needs to be there. You can't win the war by going with the niche AV nuts, it can only be done by getting the next level.
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post #208 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 01:59 PM
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Dahlsim: assuming all else equal, I can't see a 100$+ add-on HD-DVD drive to have more then 15%-20% the effect of the PS3.
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post #209 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Let me try this a different way. Have you ever been to a grocery store and tasted a free sample and bought the product because it was good and had a 1/2 price coupon? that is PS3. Now if all they had was a 1/2 price coupon you might not have bought it, yes it is 1/2 price but you still don't know if you like it.
Really? You must be talking about a different machine than PS3 then. Because last I checked, there is no schedule for US introduction of this machine. So what we have in the form of PS3 is no sample, no nothing. On the other hand Xbox 360 comes out this year and folks can sample what it can do at prices they can afford.

So the better analogy is that you go to the supermarket this holiday season, can sample Xbox 360 but see an empty shelf for PS3 with the sign, "Coming in 2006-2007, Price unknow." Care to push your analogy further :)?

You say this is a battle for next holiday season? Then you have no idea what they could be facing then (not hinting at anything -- just making a factual statement that you all don't know our plans or plans of our partners).

Amir

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post #210 of 255 Old 10-02-2005, 02:14 PM
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Hmm, so the PS3 is no more likely to launch in the US than double-layer Blu-Ray discs ("years away")?

How long ago did MS announce the official launch date and price for the X360? Wasn't it in the last month or two? So about 3-4 months from launch.

I don't think anyone was questioning that it was coming this year before MS announced it officially.
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