Sony Pushes Blu-Ray Adoption With PS3 - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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Old 11-14-2005, 03:20 AM
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People that underestimate the influence of PS3 on this format war do not understand the market correctly. Those who use comparisons to past consoles are erroneous because its a whole new world out there. The average age of a gamer is now 29, where it used to be 18. This 29 (or 20-something) year old is what psychologists and marketing gurus are referring to as a "kidult", "adultescent", or a "twixter". This new type of consumer will make up a sizable proportion of PS3 buyers, and would also definitely own a HDTV, surround sound system, and has lots of disposable income to buy loads of Bluray movies. These Kidults are estimated to make up 25% of 18-35 year olds, live with their parents, and have no other adult responsibilities. The all own iPods, also own the new iTunes cell phone by motorola, frequent pubs, buy designer clothing etc....Basically spend all their money on cool electronics, travel, and booze. I know this because I am one of them :) Sony's best move was to realize this and incorporate BD support in the PS3. Theres a whole generation thats growing rapidly with lots of money that doesn't want to grow up, and they want this cool stuff NOW! :D
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Old 11-14-2005, 07:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlickVik
This 29 (or 20-something) year old is what psychologists and marketing gurus are referring to as a "kidult", "adultescent", or a "twixter". would also definitely own a HDTV, surround sound system, and has lots of disposable income to buy loads of Bluray movies.
...
live with their parents,
Why would a 29 year old HDTV owning person with lots of disposable income live with parents (unless they are Asian) ? ;)
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Old 11-14-2005, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj
Why would a 29 year old HDTV owning person with lots of disposable income live with parents (unless they are Asian) ? ;)
It is easier to have relatively more disposable income if you live with parents, provided that 1. they are feeding you 2. your alternative would be to rent elsewhere.
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:26 AM
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onanie: yes and I was in that category a few years back. On the other hand I am single and I am buying the PS3 for myself, the only difference is I have responsibilities because I own the house :)
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
onanie: yes and I was in that category a few years back. On the other hand I am single and I am buying the PS3 for myself, the only difference is I have responsibilities because I own the house :)
it's all good :)
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:59 AM
 
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25% of 18-35 year olds live with their parents?

Very, very sad.
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Old 11-14-2005, 10:24 AM
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There is going to be a massive shortage(caused by BR-ROM OPU shortage) where people are put on a 5-month long waiting list to even get one; this is essentially what's happening right now with Xbox 360 and I doubt non-gaming video viewer would go through such a frustrating experience to get one.
There's no way to say exactly what the duration of a shortage would be, but it is quite reasonable to expect delays for any "successful" console launch. The consoles are usually launched for the Christmas holiday season which of course = High Demand. The production of many new parts which are dependant on different entities inevitably means that supply cannot match the demand for a holiday season.

The real hope for the console launch has to be that holiday demand carries momentum into the post holiday buying when supply can actually meet demand. 360 hopes to carry momentum into 2006 buying and PS3 IF they make the 2006 fall target will hope to carry it's momentum into 2007.

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Old 11-14-2005, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound
25% of 18-35 year olds live with their parents?

Very, very sad.
Here is an interesting paper on twixters.

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"Most of their needs are taken care of by Mom and Dad, so their income is largely discretionary. [Many twentysomethings] are living at home, but if you look, you'll see flat-screen TVs in their bedrooms and brand-new cars in the driveway." Some twixters may want to grow up, but corporations and advertisers have a real stake in keeping them in a tractable, exploitable, pre-adult state—living at home, spending their money on toys.
Shame on you sony ;)
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Old 11-14-2005, 10:36 AM
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People that underestimate the influence of PS3 on this format war do not understand the market correctly.
If HD DVD doesn't get some sort of solid boost into the gaming market, i.e. help from the 360 to at least offset the PS3 I'd say the road looks bleak. The unknowns I'm looking for:

1) When does HD DVD arrive and when does the PS3 arrive? We knew spring 2006 was a fairy tale and it's pretty much being confirmed that Sony's real target is Fall 2006. Will they make that? How many units?
In other words exactly how long will HD DVD have the market to itself?

2) How much is PS3? Most inidications now from Sony & Studios point to a low price range for the Blu Ray PS3 in the $299-$399 range. Pretty much giving the drive away, but still this price is not official. If it's much over that and it get's out of mass market range for console gamers.

3) What if anything will 360 do with HD DVD?

Will gamers have any alternative to PS3/Blu Ray if they want High Def movies? HTPC is great but it'll be a good while before it's a "mass market" alternative to popping in a disk.

Is MS relative silence (and downright ambiguity) on the 360's future regards HDMI and HD DVD or even upscaling of SD DVD because they have a plan or because they don't have plan? :rolleyes:

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Old 11-14-2005, 11:08 AM
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In other words exactly how long will HD DVD have the market to itself?
don't know, we have had big fairy tales from HD-DVD for some time, while BR has always maintained spring 2006 and has not changed, HSD-DVD was supposed to be early fall 2005, late fall 2005, Dec 2005 Q1 2006, at this time I am hoping for before 2010 :)

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If it's much over that and it get's out of mass market range for console gamers.
what ever the price will be, the question is will gamers buy it? My guess even at 500$ or 600$ Sony will still be hard pressed to keep up with demand and millions of units sold in the few first months.


Quote:
Is MS relative silence (and downright ambiguity) on the 360's future regards HDMI and HD DVD or even upscaling of SD DVD because they have a plan or because they don't have plan?
my guess wither no plan or not a good one :), this is the time to speak up before it is too late.
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Old 11-14-2005, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Dahlsim
1) When does HD DVD arrive and when does the PS3 arrive? We knew spring 2006 was a fairy tale and it's pretty much being confirmed that Sony's real target is Fall 2006. Will they make that? How many units?
In other words exactly how long will HD DVD have the market to itself?
Not much. Putting PS3 aside for the moment, assuming HD DVD can get their units out the door by Q1 2006 (which I still seriously doubt, despite Amir's claims), they will not be the cheap Chinese boxes, but the 1K variety. OTOH, I expect BD to get out at least 1, if not more, units/drives in the same approximate time frame at competitive prices. So the whole FTM issue seems of little consequence, and may actually favor BD.


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Old 11-14-2005, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
this is the time to speak up before it is too late.
Ofcourse not ... you don't want to talk about future plan close to the launch of 360. The correct time is just before PS3 launch. I wonder what would happen if they announce an upgrade for 2007 Nov timeframe with next gen dvd rom (either hd-dvd or blu-ray depending on how winds are blowing) with updated video and cpu.
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Old 11-14-2005, 01:42 PM
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I wonder what would happen if they announce an upgrade for 2007 Nov timeframe with next gen dvd rom (either hd-dvd or blu-ray depending on how winds are blowing) with updated video and cpu.
I think MS will have a lot of PO customers :)

think about it, let's say someone was trying to buy the 360, finally gets one 6M later (can't get one in 2005, Jan 2006 pockets are empty due to credit cards, Feb still a bit empty due to Valentines and stuff and buys it in March. Now what happens, in Sept he hears that a new incompatible (better video, better CPU, HD-DVD...) will come out. What happens? will the machines be 100% compatible (games will play the same on both) why will he buy a new console so close after? games that only play on the new one and use the advanced features? why will he run out and buy a new 360? the guy waiting for 1 year to buy one is the guy looking for a discount.


So the choices are PO users or a small market.

I think it is reasonable to talk about an expensive 360 media edition with built in PVR functionality and a HD-DVD burner. But who would buy the 360 ME? the gamer? no, the guy looking for a HD-DVD PVR? yes. It is a new market for MS but the numbers can't compete with every PS3 having a BR drive.
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Old 11-14-2005, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
I think MS will have a lot of PO customers :)

think about it, let's say someone was trying to buy the 360, finally gets one 6M later (can't get one in 2005, Jan 2006 pockets are empty due to credit cards, Feb still a bit empty due to Valentines and stuff and buys it in March. Now what happens, in Sept he hears that a new incompatible (better video, better CPU, HD-DVD...) will come out. What happens? will the machines be 100% compatible (games will play the same on both) why will he buy a new console so close after? games that only play on the new one and use the advanced features? why will he run out and buy a new 360? the guy waiting for 1 year to buy one is the guy looking for a discount.


So the choices are PO users or a small market.

I think it is reasonable to talk about an expensive 360 media edition with built in PVR functionality and a HD-DVD burner. But who would buy the 360 ME? the gamer? no, the guy looking for a HD-DVD PVR? yes. It is a new market for MS but the numbers can't compete with every PS3 having a BR drive.
Umm....Anthony. I think you skipped a year. November 2007 was the suggested date for that imaginary launch.

So just edit your answer to include: "Too little, too late, to matter anymore". :)

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Old 11-14-2005, 02:11 PM
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Palladin: Lol, I don't need to play on technicalities. I think from "The correct time is just before PS3 launch." it can be inferred it was a typo. Now if he meant announce it in 2006 and come out in 2007, then it is even more worthless like you said (not to mention that 1/2 through MS will need to say it will be BR)
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Old 11-14-2005, 02:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Palladin: Lol, I don't need to play on technicalities. I think from "The correct time is just before PS3 launch." it can be inferred it was a typo. Now if he meant announce it in 2006 and come out in 2007, then it is even more worthless like you said (not to mention that 1/2 through MS will need to say it will be BR)
I definitely meant 2007 and announcement before ps3 launch.

Yes, it will be a smaller market. The games have to compatible. But, that can stop some people from buying ps3 (and who also have a 360) ...

In any case, there is no point talking about future plans (as in hd-dvd etc) now with days left for the 360 launch.
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Old 11-14-2005, 02:28 PM
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Either way I think an update of the 360 with new processor and video is unlikely at best and certainly would pis off a lot of customers.

I also agree with AnthonyP that a full Media Center version of the 360 with a PVR and either an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray drive is a strong possibility. (though no update of process or etc.)

But AnthonyP I think you may have misread nataraj's comment. I don't think he was suggesting the 360 would help HD-DVD prevail over Blu-Ray. I think he was simply suggesting that MS may be waiting to see which format wins before dropping it in their 360. Which may be a legitmate way of competing aaginst the PS3.
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Old 11-14-2005, 02:48 PM
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I definitely meant 2007 and announcement before ps3 launch.
then I take my last couple of posts back and my answer is

Too little, too late, to matter anymore (that was na easy answer :) )

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Yes, it will be a smaller market. The games have to compatible. But, that can stop some people from buying ps3 (and who also have a 360) ...
so you think someone with a 360 planning to buy PS3 so they can play games on either consol will go "the 360 that will come out in over a year will have HD-DVD, can't get a PS3"

or how about the guy that bought neither? was he waiting for the PS3 because he wanted the PS3 games? well then he wants PS3 games.

Did he want a 2G player? and wanted a PS3 to make it more affordable? why wait for a 360 for one more year?

Did he want to wait and see the difference between 360 and PS3? well now he knows, why wait for the 360 ME?
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Old 11-14-2005, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
then I take my last couple of posts back and my answer is

Too little, too late, to matter anymore (that was na easy answer :) )
We will see if that is just an easy answer or the right one as well ;)

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so you think someone with a 360 planning to buy PS3 so they can play games on either consol will go "the 360 that will come out in over a year will have HD-DVD, can't get a PS3"
No ... its only for thos who might be tempted by all the "better specs". Also, if they have to wait for months for ps3, they may decide to wait a few more months ...

It will be interesting to see what the xbox team will actually do. I can't imagine them just watching silently when ps3 launches ...
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Old 11-14-2005, 03:44 PM
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so you think someone with a 360 planning to buy PS3 so they can play games on either consol will go "the 360 that will come out in over a year will have HD-DVD, can't get a PS3"
No. My position (I'll be that guy you describe) would be interest for an upgrade to the 360 to allow it to play HD DVD. To me that would be the best play. This would be say an external drive to enable 360 to play HD DVD movies.

Assuming a price significantly lower than that of a new PS3 then it becomes an alternative for 360 owners wanting wanting high def DVD.

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Either way I think an update of the 360 with new processor and video is unlikely at best and certainly would pis off a lot of customers.
Consoles do not update processors or GPU, that's out. They could update the drive itself to an HD DVD however and that would only PO current owners IF there were no upgrade path for the original 360's

Even updating the drives however could a bit problematic because HD DVD or Blu Ray drives are likely to be slower than the 12x dual DVD drive they have now. If I were MS I'd hedge my bets and go external add on all the way but then who knows what's in the mind of the beast?

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Old 11-14-2005, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj
Ofcourse not ... you don't want to talk about future plan close to the launch of 360. The correct time is just before PS3 launch. I wonder what would happen if they announce an upgrade for 2007 Nov timeframe with next gen dvd rom (either hd-dvd or blu-ray depending on how winds are blowing) with updated video and cpu.
This just gives me such a wonderful oppurtunity to offer the BD equivalent of a typical "Amir", that I can't resist.

This would be posted over in some gaming forum prior to the 360's release:

[Palladin]

I have recently learned from one of my well-placed Microsoft sources that he expects MSFT to release an XBOX 360 with a BD drive sometime in late 2007. One must wonder how much effort the software developers will put into any titles when their product will be incompatible with the next gen unit?

Looks like we'll end up with only "B" list material for the first couple years with the 360.

Oh, and I've also heard that MS is so concerned about the obvious superiority of the PS3, they intend to announce the next gen 360's arrival a year ahead of its release, and just prior to PS3's launch, as they believe this will be their only chance to divert attention from the PS3's runaway success. [/Palladin] :)

Ahhhh! So that's how it's done. Now if only I could stop washing my hands and muttering "Out, damned spot! Out I say!" :D

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Old 11-14-2005, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
We will see if that is just an easy answer or the right one as well ;)
Its both! How convenient.

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It will be interesting to see what the xbox team will actually do. I can't imagine them just watching silently when ps3 launches ...
Me neither. I'm guessing they will just take Amir out of the storage room, re-activate him, and make some minor revisions to his text-posting software. :D

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Old 11-14-2005, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Palladin
I have recently learned from one of my well-placed Microsoft sources that he expects MSFT to release an XBOX 360 with a BD drive sometime in late 2007. One must wonder how much effort the software developers will put into any titles when their product will be incompatible with the next gen unit?

Looks like we'll end up with only "B" list material for the first couple years with the 360.

Oh, and I've also heard that MS is so concerned about the obvious superiority of the PS3, they intend to announce the next gen 360's arrival a year ahead of its release, and just prior to PS3's launch, as they believe this will be their only chance to divert attention from the PS3's runaway success.
Putting out an HD model is a probability, but the rest is PS3 fanboyism at its finest.
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Old 11-14-2005, 10:26 PM
 
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I have recently learned from one of my well-placed Microsoft sources that he expects MSFT to release an XBOX 360 with a BD drive sometime in late 2007.
Amir the Microsoft employee denies this.
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Old 11-15-2005, 06:25 AM
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Originally Posted by tsb
Putting out an HD model is a probability, but the rest is PS3 fanboyism at its finest.
Apparently, you didn't read that post or the preceding ones carefully, or you would have gotten the joke/point.

I took a rather innocuous statement by nataraj, who is an MS employee, and amplified/distorted it by my choice of language to create the most negative impression/interpretation humanly possible about both the product and its manufacturer, without commiting to outright lying. It was intended as an 'homage' ;) to someone else at this forum, as I specifically indicated.

How did you miss that? :rolleyes:

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Old 11-15-2005, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by PSound
25% of 18-35 year olds live with their parents?

Very, very sad.

You have apparantly not seen realestate or rent in Boston. Astronomical. 2400 SF, 4 BR for ~$500k ( I know, I've been looking at upgrading my house!) If you move over 30 miles out. Inside 30 miles, it's worse. My brother is looking at $600k homes North of the city. $2500 and higer monthly mortgage payments are common here.

You can get a nice postwar ranch in some towns for a cool $1M- maybe 1300 sf :) (really, I'm not kidding!)

And don't forget the property taxes.... my inlaws own a 2800 SF colonial in suburban Boston that they pay over $8k/yr in taxes on. My parents have a 4000 SF house in Kentucky (Suburban Lexington, if you can call it that) that they pay less than $1400/yr on.

My house has more than tripled in value in the 5 years that I've owned it. Even with those profits, I was looking at a monthy mortgage in excess of $2k for the type of house that I wanted. I'm staying put. I can afford stuff now that I would not be able to afford at that point. I'm 32, my wife is 30.
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Old 11-15-2005, 08:09 AM
 
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A bombshell has been just dropped in Japan. Square president says Final Fintasy 13 and Dragon Quest 9 might come out on both PSX3 and Xbox 360. PSX3 just lost the exclusivity to its most powerful system sellers and this further cast doubt on market success and viability of PSX3.
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Old 11-15-2005, 08:29 AM
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No. My position (I'll be that guy you describe) would be interest for an upgrade to the 360 to allow it to play HD DVD. To me that would be the best play. This would be say an external drive to enable 360 to play HD DVD movies.

Assuming a price significantly lower than that of a new PS3 then it becomes an alternative for 360 owners wanting wanting high def DVD.

But are you looking at buying a PS3 now? what if the only choice is a new full priced 360? Now if you say you are looking for the cheapest HD disk solution and MS says that a year after the PS3 (to keep nataraj dates) that MS might have a 150$ external HD-DVD drive and so you will go that way because it is cheaper then a 400$ PS3. that is a different story.
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Old 11-15-2005, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
But are you looking at buying a PS3 now? what if the only choice is a new full priced 360? Now if you say you are looking for the cheapest HD disk solution and MS says that a year after the PS3 (to keep nataraj dates) that MS might have a 150$ external HD-DVD drive and so you will go that way because it is cheaper then a 400$ PS3. that is a different story.
Personally I intend to have a PS3 and a 360 for gaming purposes but the discussion surrounds choices for playing high def movies.

If MS actually adds an HD optical option to the 360 and doesn't provide a way for early 360 adopters to get in on it then IMO they will have dropped the ball as far as helping the HD DVD format and certainly as far as customer service goes.

Well, actually, they could still help the HD DVD format somewhat because on the shelf when the PS3 arrived consumers could choose a) PS3 + Blu Ray or b) 360 + HD DVD and have a real choice. The problem is likely well over a million 360 early adopters would be left out (read "backlash") in that scenario which does not bode well for 360 HD IMHO.

Given how long MS has no doubt known and discussed all the possibilities and scenarios for HD on 360 I can't imagine they didn't plan a battle strategy. So if they don't provide an upgrade then they just decided that it they'd leave the early adopters out (likely a cost issue) which for lack of a better word just sucks as a policy.

In that case I'd say the PS3 and Blu Ray would make a lot more sense for gamers,
esp. if Sony is indeed practically giving away the BR players.

Ideally I'd like to see a 360 add-on along with hybrid offerings from hd dvd. As this point (mainly based on PS3 commitment + studio positioning) it looks more likely that we'll see Blu Ray with no hybrid (and maybe not even stellar PQ :-(

The fat lady has not sung yet though...

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Old 11-15-2005, 04:43 PM
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good post, but just one thing

Quote:
The problem is likely well over a million 360 early adopters would be left out
just to be a pain we are talking tens of millions. 1M is the first week or month, 1st year will be easily 5-10M by Nov 2007 (the date mentioned by nataraj) I hope for the 360s sake and having a choice in the generation after this and pushing the boundaries that no one is thinking of the 360 base as “over a millionâ€
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