Sony Pushes Blu-Ray Adoption With PS3 - Page 8 - AVS Forum
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Old 11-15-2005, 06:12 PM
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just to be a pain we are talking tens of millions. 1M is the first week or month, 1st year will be easily 5-10M by Nov 2007 (the date mentioned by nataraj) I hope for the 360s sake and having a choice in the generation after this and pushing the boundaries that no one is thinking of the 360 base as “over a millionâ€
Understood.

Since the point of the discussion is how much impact an Xbox 360 HD DVD option could have I'm just going super conservative based on the launch sales and the fact that IF the system were to change in regards to the optical drive they could do it as early as 1st Qtr '06.

Analysts predict MS would produce maybe 1.5 mill or so for the holidays or I've heard as many as 3 Million sold in the 1st several months. Don't know what they can produce and don't know if and when they would implement this fictional HD DVD option.

The real point is that the early adopters of 360's BEFORE an HD DVD model came out would be in the millions and thus the impact of leaving that many consumers behind with a 'new model only' type 360 offering is a substantial impact.

Not to mention the fact that us early adopters likely have a higher percentage of interest in a new toy like HD DVD anyway ;-)

BTW : "we are talking tens of millions" is still "well over a million" lol

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Old 11-15-2005, 06:36 PM
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like I said, jus fealt like being picky. I guess part of it came from Mike saying in the main thread that the PS2 sold around 1M in the first year and so 1-3M will be a lot for the first year of the PS3. Then I came here and read 1M 360 owners and the discussion was mostly around 2 years later and fealt I needed to point it out that it would be double and not single digit.
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Old 11-15-2005, 10:33 PM
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I don't think Xbox360 will have a HD-DVD drive. Ever.
The movie watching part is supposed to be acomplished by the 360 being a Media Extender.
I think this is the root of the stand-off between MS and the BD camp: BD+ has the potential to take this away -
additional encryption that could interfere with the 360's ability to be a network player.
If we imagine the impossible and BD drops BD+ and adopts MMC, I think Vista will play BD disks within months of introduction.

PS3 is suppose to dramaticaly accelerate the price drop of BD drives and disks by sheer volume of expected PS3's sold.
I don't think the PS3 has any other role.
HD-DVD is planning to accomplish that - being cheap - by using cheaper technology and being first out of the gate.

Everything will be up to the studios.

If HD-DVD fails, MS will go VOD (I think Amir mentioned something like that).

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Old 11-15-2005, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by diogen
I don't think Xbox360 will have a HD-DVD drive. Ever.
The movie watching part is supposed to be acomplished by the 360 being a Media Extender.
I think this is the root of the stand-off between MS and the BD camp: BD+ has the potential to take this away -
additional encryption that could interfere with the 360's ability to be a network player.
If we imagine the impossible and BD drops BD+ and adopts MMC, I think Vista will play BD disks within months of introduction.

PS3 is suppose to dramaticaly accelerate the price drop of BD drives and disks by sheer volume of expected PS3's sold.
I don't think the PS3 has any other role.
HD-DVD is planning to accomplish that - being cheap - by using cheaper technology and being first out of the gate.

Everything will be up to the studios.

If HD-DVD fails, MS will go VOD (I think Amir mentioned something like that).

Diogen.
Good summary
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Old 11-16-2005, 01:10 AM
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I don't think Xbox360 will have a HD-DVD drive. Ever.
The movie watching part is supposed to be acomplished by the 360 being a Media Extender.
Clearly it would be in MS best interest to get the mass market streaming everything. That will likely continue to grow among the moderately tech savvy that can afford it, but do they really imagine that network based video streaming is ready now to replace 'pop in a disk' collections of movies?

Bill Gates has made statements to the effect that neither HD format would win while at the same time coming out in public support of Toshiba and HD DVD so the net intent there is unintelligible.

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If HD-DVD fails, MS will go VOD (I think Amir mentioned something like that).
MS will "go VOD" anyway but is it mutually exclusive? The question is how much weight they're willing to throw into this battle. They may well let PS3 own HD optical and just play wait and see with the 360 but there's still a lot to indicate they have more than a passing interest in how HD optical plays out.

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Old 11-16-2005, 07:36 AM
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I don't think Xbox360 will have a HD-DVD drive. Ever.
The movie watching part is supposed to be acomplished by the 360 being a Media Extender.
I think this is the root of the stand-off between MS and the BD camp: BD+ has the potential to take this away -
additional encryption that could interfere with the 360's ability to be a network player.
If we imagine the impossible and BD drops BD+ and adopts MMC, I think Vista will play BD disks within months of introduction.

Diogen: even though I mostly agree, I can picture MS coming out with an expensive game console/media server/PVR with 2G drive

the max in convergence, add a slot for different tuners (from sat/cable/ota) and who needs anything else in their HT/media centre.

Let's say comes with 1Tb but can be increased, you can tape your shows, MC the disks, play your games and stream them to the other 360s in the home.

come on, you would pay 1k$+ for that :)


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PS3 is suppose to dramaticaly accelerate the price drop of BD drives and disks by sheer volume of expected PS3's sold.
agree, there is an advantage of making millions of one thing over thousands.

Quote:
I don't think the PS3 has any other role.
I think it's biggest advantage is a free sampling. Let's say your rental place rents BR and DVD at the same price, let's say you have a PS3 but no other 2G player, what do you pick? my guess many will go BR, that means the rental place starts holding more BR titles. You also now saw a BR movie, and it looked good, if you go to buy a titles what happens? you decide to buy BR because it looks better .....

now you will tell me it is not free, you need a PS3. the point is that a million or more will buy a PS3 when it comes out and if it does like the PS2 in its first year it will be over 10M. That is a lot of possible customers.

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If HD-DVD fails, MS will go VOD (I think Amir mentioned something like that).
my guess MS wants to go VOD what ever happens with HD-DVD. I think VOD is plan A
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Old 11-16-2005, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
...my guess MS wants to go VOD what ever happens with HD-DVD. I think VOD is plan A
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahlsim
...MS will "go VOD" anyway but is it mutually exclusive?
The time isn't right.
MS is a PC company. That's their area of expertise.
I think around 2002 MS anounced to be working towards making the PC the center of the living room.
Another company that declared the same was Apple. Sony obviously didn't share that point of view.
For VOD to take off home networks and fast internet has to be as common as TVs today. We ain't there yet.
MS wants this last optical format as an interim solution until we get there. And not for a day longer.
Just imagine - a movie in MS' DRM envelope. No middle-man. No profit sharing.
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Originally Posted by AnthonyP
I think it's biggest advantage is a free sampling.
I don't believe in PS3 as a BD player. Same as PS2 as a DVD player.
Remember, PS2 was even able to run Linux (Sony was even selling a kit, if I'm not mistaken).
Was this anything but proof of concept? Xbox modding was orders of magnitude above it.
Yes, it will play BD. You can use a screwdriver as a hammer, too. Once, may be.

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Old 11-16-2005, 09:19 AM
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We ain't there yet.
MS wants this last optical format as an interim solution until we get there. And not for a day longer.
Just imagine - a movie in MS' DRM envelope. No middle-man. No profit sharing.
wasn't that both our point. No one said go VOD today. But the idea is to get studios comfortable with MS tech and prove that MC works so that then MS can use it to push a diskless network based home entertainment system.


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I don't believe in PS3 as a BD player. Same as PS2 as a DVD player.
Remember, PS2 was even able to run Linux (Sony was even selling a kit, if I'm not mistaken).
Was this anything but proof of concept? Xbox modding was orders of magnitude above it.
Yes, it will play BD. You can use a screwdriver as a hammer, too. Once, may be.
again, I think you are missing the point. let me try it a different way, it is a gateway drug. I don't think it is everyone will watch BR movies on the PS3, I think the PS3 is what will hook up many people to BR and then as the prices drop people will move to stand alone players and other devices that use BR.
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Old 11-16-2005, 02:32 PM
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Not VOD, but an alternative to the current optical nextgen DVD mess:
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/p...bleLabsPR.mspx

"...allow consumers to enjoy one-way cable programming, including premium high-definition cable content, on their personal computer and throughout the home on compliant network-connected devices, such as Xbox 360™, while protecting cable operators’ investments in high-value content in a digital environment."

In one year time.
By the time BD/HD have a chance to start thinking about market share, we'll have an alternative.
This can't be bad. As long as it offers some sort of managed copy and archiving.

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Old 11-27-2005, 01:19 PM
 
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The main thing is that the Playstation 3 can't record. The market for High Definition recording is what will give all of Blu-Rays other supporters something to do. The first Blu-Ray recorders that can read ROM as well should probably retail $2,000 in late 2006. My plan is for Playstation 3 to be my first Blu-Ray player and then move to a recorder in a few years time.
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