Adoptation rate is different for HD-DVD because of the effect of Chinese HD-DVD players. It is hard to predict what the actual curve will be like, as format war tend to depress sales curve but cheap Chinese HD-DVD players inflate the sales curve, so the final result is unpredictable.
I am betting that when the Chinese HD-DVD player price level drops below $200 some time in 2007, HD-DVD would truely have become a mass consumer item.
Basically, whoever reaches that magical $200 price level wins this format war.
|Now how many PS3 do you think will be sold and manufactured by Jan1 2007?
In the US? 600K tops. You are asking for a US PSX3 sales projection for the first 40 days. SCEI will attempt a launch with 300K units and have another 300k units just before Xmas, but that's about it, no more.
If you think the current Xbox 360 shortage is bad, you haven't seen nothing yet.
|so even using your own equation the PS3 will put a BR player in twice as many homes as HD-DVD stand alone players.
Sorry to disprove you.
|We also did not add the rest (stand alone BR players)
Do you really expect people to buy $1000 players, be it HD-DVD or BR-ROM?
You won't see any kind of significant sales figure until the price level drops below $500.