Will anybody "win" ??? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 01:53 AM - Thread Starter
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We already have two satellite radio companies, two satellite TV companies, multiple CD audio formats.

What is the chance that nobody will "win" the next generation DVD format, and both formats will simply co-exist for an extended period of time ???

I'm guessing this will be a niche market anyway for a very long time, with limited releases of primarily blockbusters and new releases.

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post #2 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 06:59 AM
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You don't need a crystal ball to see who the loser is in all of this......the early adopter :D

I believe both formats to be long term niche products with absolutely no participation from Joe 6 pack at all for a few years.

You have your HD early adopters that are going for the cheap player from Toshiba that has no 1080p and is limited to two channels of lossless audio, and only 50% studio support.

Some of these adopters seem to think that the masses will be involved from the get go.....but thats not likely to happen because 500.00 is a lot to the masses who have no hdtv, and will never pay 30.00 -40.00 dollars for a movie regardless.

You have your more expensive B/R player early adopters that are going for the 1080p, 7.1 channels of lossless audio at up to 192/24, and 90% studio support.
Most B/R owners seem more realistic about no participation by Joe 6 pack for years...and also have the majority studio support , as well as the PS3 trojan horse theory which will more than offset any cheap player pricing...probably several times over.
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post #3 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 07:30 AM - Thread Starter
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I agree EARZ. I think many folks are thinking that the next generation HD Disc will have the amazing acceptance that DVD had, and the incredible number of titles, movies, TV Shows, Specials, etc. that we now have on DVD will also be available in a few years on the next generation Disc. In all likelihood they will not.

I was a Laser Disc owner, and I dreamed of having the titles that were available only on VHS.

I simply do not see widespread acceptance of either of these new discs for many many years .. maybe never, since there may be something else lurking out there that will surpass anything we know of now.

Folks had very high hopes for Laser Discs, and some for Super VHS, and what we all got was DVD. We got a very limited number of LD titles, mainly blockbusters and new movies.

Too bad they did not make the technical requirements and resolution for DVD a little bit higher, because I think it will be with us for quite a while longer.

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post #4 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 07:33 AM
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I actually agree with both of you, and think both formats may very well survive since I see 2 very different long-term markets: BR for those who want the best specs and are willing to pay for them, and HD for those who are more price sensitive and don't understand or need or care about the better specs (and even many of the early adopters are price sensitive, judging by the early Tosh preorders). I suspect the latter is actually the larger market. Earz, considering most surround systems are pretty crappy, I just don't see lossless audio to be an important deal breaker for most people (you would need a top receiver and top speakers to hear the difference in audio between the surround sound capabilities of BR versus HD). And I do not understand the 1080p argument. Although it is true that only BR will have 1080p at the start (with an $1800 Pioneer), HD players will eventually come out with 1080p output, so I do not see this as a significant difference between the 2 formats. And who has a 1080p set that accepts a 1080p signal over HDMI anyway? The PS3 is certainly a wildcard in the format war, and is a great marketing plan on the part of Sony. On the one hand, it puts BR technology out there. But, on the other hand, how many people really watch DVDs with their PS2? Those who want the best and are willing to pay for it will certainly not be happy with the PS3 as their BR player, IMO. By the way, my kids' PS2 is in the basement with an old 35" analog tube TV, and when they upgrade to the PS3, it will also be in the basement, and will not be hooked up to my HDTV in my family room, so what will I care about it having BR (and I'm sure I'm not alone in this regard)? The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that both formats may very well survive long-term. And in the end, neither may survive (HD VOD or some technology we don't even know about may supplant them both).
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post #5 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 07:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Earz
You don't need a crystal ball to see who the loser is in all of this......the early adopter :D
They always are, although most of them have enough money, they don't care.

Quote:
I believe both formats to be long term niche products with absolutely no participation from Joe 6 pack at all for a few years.
Exactly. Years away from being in the picture.


Quote:
You have your HD early adopters that are going for the cheap player from Toshiba that has no 1080p and is limited to two channels of lossless audio, and only 50% studio support.
And it's a dubious 50 percent, even at that.


Quote:

Some of these adopters seem to think that the masses will be involved from the get go.....but thats not likely to happen because 500.00 is a lot to the masses who have no hdtv, and will never pay 30.00 -40.00 dollars for a movie regardless.
Exactly. Masses are a complete non-factor for years to come for either format.


Quote:

You have your more expensive B/R player early adopters that are going for the 1080p, 7.1 channels of lossless audio at up to 192/24, and 90% studio support.
Most B/R owners seem more realistic about no participation by Joe 6 pack for years...and also have the majority studio support , as well as the PS3 trojan horse theory which will more than offset any cheap player pricing...probably several times over.
Again, perfectly stated.

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Originally Posted by BillP
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that both formats may very well survive long-term. And in the end, neither may survive (HD VOD or some technology we don't even know about may supplant them both).
That would be ironic and hilarious were it to happen. But you never know...

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post #6 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:16 AM
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There is a poll at Home Theater Forum

Early adopter of either/or/both formats 21%
Those that say they will wait for either a winner...or universal player 79%.

When you consider Joe 6 pack does not visit these boards....and the actual A/V nuts do.....this is a very telling poll.
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post #7 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Earz
There is a poll at Home Theater Forum

Early adopter of either/or/both formats 21%
Those that say they will wait for either a winner...or universal player 79%.

When you consider Joe 6 pack does not visit these boards....and the actual A/V nuts do.....this is a very telling poll.
Indeed it is. Past the PS3 and things like that, I'm firmly with that 79 percent.

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post #8 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:22 AM
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I thought the lack of 1080p output and only 2 channel lossless audio on the Toshiba were limitations of the first generation Toshiba players, not the format. What's to stop future HD DVD players from supporting those features?
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post #9 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:24 AM
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I agree with this idea - both will survive for a while. In addition to the above examples, there are three competing game consoles too, none of whom are on the brink of 'losing'. Both HD formats will be at least paralleled by a lot of people getting content by VOD or some form of download.
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post #10 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy2000
I thought the lack of 1080p output and only 2 channel lossless audio on the Toshiba were limitations of the first generation Toshiba players, not the format. What's to stop future HD DVD players from supporting those features?
Maybe so....but I don't believe 192/24 7.1 audio is in the hd dvd specs....and even if it were....you could not fit one of the many long popular movies out there on hd with both...unless of course you use two disks or extra compression.
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post #11 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Earz
There is a poll at Home Theater Forum

Early adopter of either/or/both formats 21%
Those that say they will wait for either a winner...or universal player 79%.

When you consider Joe 6 pack does not visit these boards....and the actual A/V nuts do.....this is a very telling poll.
IMO, that's a very worrisome poll, and could be foretelling the demise of both formats. If only 21% of people who read visit that board and click on that topic are thinking of buying a new player, that's does not speak for many sales for years to come. There were also quite a large # of people here on AVS claiming they will be waiting for a while (including me).
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post #12 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:57 AM
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I thought the lack of 1080p output and only 2 channel lossless audio on the Toshiba were limitations of the first generation Toshiba players, not the format. What's to stop future HD DVD players from supporting those features?
Nothing.

I don't believe HD-DVD titles will be mass market for awhile, but I think we'll see mass adoption of these players a lot sooner than people think.

First-generation HD-DVD players will debut at $500, closer to $400-450 online; second-generation players should hit $300 online, with more features, in time for Christmas '06. HD-DVD ROM (and/or Blu-ray) drives will be a standard feature of most $999 PCs by Spring '07, and we'll see a lot of people upgrading and buying new computers for Windows Vista. Third-generation players should hit $200 by Christmas '07. When players hit $149-$199, people will buy them just for the potential future-proofing, regardless of whether they intend to spend more on HD-DVD disks. Every year, some percentage of the public will buy new DVD players, and there will come a point at which you can't buy a mid-range DVD player without HD-DVD support.
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post #13 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 08:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillP
IMO, that's a very worrisome poll, and could be foretelling the demise of both formats. If only 21% of people who read visit that board and click on that topic are thinking of buying a new player, that's does not speak for many sales for years to come. There were also auite a large # of people here on AVS claiming they will be waiting for a while (including me).
It's worrisome, but honestly...does it REALLY surprise anyone?

I can't say I'm surprised by it.

The overwhelming feeling, for the most part, has been loathing, resistance, mockery, and dread about a so-called "format war."

Ideally, everyone wanted to see "DVD II" happen and now it's not going to.

It's going to be a LOOONG and arduous process, even longer than DVD's was. Most people are not thrilled at this prospect.

Great ISF Job by Chad B.
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post #14 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 09:48 AM
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I agree that if left to market forces, this looks like a long drawn out stalemate with both formats in a niche market.

However, the studios want HD adopted since the copy protection on DVDs is broken. So there are many things Hollywood can do to force one or both HD formats. One thing, and I'm speculating here, is that they could release the HD DVD or BD day and date release of new movies a month or so before the SD DVD. This would motivate many ordinary people to go out and get a new DVD. Once most people have the new format, they will phase out SD DVD into a niche market for back catalog releases.
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post #15 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakPoint
I agree that if left to market forces, this looks like a long drawn out stalemate with both formats in a niche market.

However, the studios want HD adopted since the copy protection on DVDs is broken. So there are many things Hollywood can do to force one or both HD formats. One thing, and I'm speculating here, is that they could release the HD DVD or BD day and date release of new movies a month or so before the SD DVD. This would motivate many ordinary people to go out and get a new DVD. Once most people have the new format, they will phase out SD DVD into a niche market for back catalog releases.

Interesting idea, but there is one caveat: SD DVD is a HUGE cash cow they would not want to shortchange until the last possible moment. ;)

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post #16 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
Interesting idea, but there is one caveat: SD DVD is a HUGE cash cow they would not want to shortchange until the last possible moment. ;)
I agree with you. Let's face it - the only thing the studios are interested in is $$. They will absolutely not jeapardize sales (more of their profit comes from DVD sales nowadays, and less from theaters).
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post #17 of 41 Old 01-22-2006, 01:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillP
I agree with you. Let's face it - the only thing the studios are interested in is $$. They will absolutely not jeapardize sales (more of their profit comes from DVD sales nowadays, and less from theaters).
If anyone has doubts about anything else, this is one constant EVERYONE can count on and agree on: Max greed. ;)

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post #18 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 12:35 PM
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music videos in hd with loseless audio would not hurt and maybe spur things along.
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post #19 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 02:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech
music videos in hd with loseless audio would not hurt and maybe spur things along.
There are some announced for B/R....check in the B/R software section.
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post #20 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bfdtv
... and there will come a point at which you can't buy a mid-range DVD player without HD-DVD support.
I totally agree with this. This will be one way for studios and manufacturers to get people to more readliy adopt the HD format.

(Not the same, but just reminds me of how you can't buy a non-progressive DVD player these days...I mean it's standard.)

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post #21 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 07:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidHir
I totally agree with this. This will be one way for studios and manufacturers to get people to more readliy adopt the HD format.

(Not the same, but just reminds me of how you can't buy a non-progressive DVD player these days...I mean it's standard.)
With only 50% studio support...don't count on it.
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post #22 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech
music videos in hd with loseless audio would not hurt and maybe spur things along.
I can't wait to hear Britney Spears in (over processed) lossless audio :D
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post #23 of 41 Old 01-23-2006, 10:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
I can't wait to hear Britney Spears in (over processed) lossless audio :D
actually i was thinking more of live8 with the reunited pinkfloyd
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post #24 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 02:32 PM
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:rolleyes: You know -- this reminds me a bit of DVD-Audio....that amazing format that the market just ignored....I don't think the market will be able to ignore HD-DVD and Blu-ray but I guarantee that we will want to...I think there will be some fantastic opportunities for rouge formats here. The consumer is not going to pay more for a new format that isn't remotely unified. Its just a stupid proposition. I remember the ole MMCD, SuperDisc days when we were all waiting with baited breath to get a disc and a player....I don't see that happening here....Way too many issues at hand at the release. I will pay to get that fantastic picture on my HDTV but my DVD's are lookin pretty good......I can wait quite a while....

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post #25 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 02:45 PM
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Maybe the new Holographic Technology will win? I doubt it but you never know.
I am waiting for the Sony HD-DVD player and the Toshiba Blu-Ray players. I am not going to buy either format until then.
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post #26 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 02:50 PM
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Unfortuneately,


The new Holographic Technology is pretty KEWL and it does work. However, no one has figured out a way to replicate this format in a cost effective fashion (off to the USPTO I say)...It is resolved to the Archival storage and recordable community for the time being.

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post #27 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 02:56 PM
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Who cares who wins (at this point)...Give us the software and players and we'll muddle through it til it all gets sorted out. It has been too long not to have HD titles. D-VHS was a nice hold over but I am hoping these formats will give us more titles.

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post #28 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy2000
I thought the lack of 1080p output and only 2 channel lossless audio on the Toshiba were limitations of the first generation Toshiba players, not the format. What's to stop future HD DVD players from supporting those features?
GB will stop this from happening on a bunch of longer movies.

192/24 is just an option thats not in the HD spec...and your likely never going to see it.
Why would any forward thinker buy a 1080i player when the 1080p B/R players are good to go for now, and in the future.

I see Pixar was just bought by Disney...so HD's studio support has gotten smaller yet with these studios both in the B/R camp.....but there first player is cheap right?
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post #29 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 07:54 PM
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At this years International Recording Media Association’s (IRMA) annual management summit one presentation gave estimates on the market penetration of the next generation of DVD disks (Blue-ray and HD-DVD). Best estimates are that the next-generation discs will total 60 to 70 million units in 2006, but even by 2009, the 750 million next-generation disc estimate will still only account for 14 to 15 percent of all DVD discs manufactured.

So, the guys that supply the raw materials and own the manufacturing plants aren't expecting an avalanche of acceptance either.

Human perception is not a direct consequence of reality, but rather an act of imagination. - Michael Faraday
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post #30 of 41 Old 01-24-2006, 08:16 PM
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I think it comes down to this. I asked everyone of my friends which one they would pick (mostly Joe 6 pack non-hd philes) Not only do they not have any ideal what I am talking about but they already think $100 is alot of money for a DVD player. Even toshiba's $500 budget HD DVD player is way outside the league of average Joe. Lets not even mention higher movie cost. I like the HD VOD ideal but we still need acceptance of a "media player' type device. Maybe Microsoft will offer HD VOD over xbox live soon :)
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