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post #91 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:13 AM
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The PS3 is going to be Sony's "Nintendo 64". Wildly popular, but ultimately the beginning of the end of their undisputed reign at the top of the industry.
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post #92 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeavyC
The PS3 is going to be Sony's "Nintendo 64". Wildly popular, but ultimately the beginning of the end of their undisputed reign at the top of the industry.
How so?

This is another one of those "amazing posts" where I either wonder if I'm addressing a time traveler from the future or a person with mind reading and clairvoyant abilities.

Since the PS3 isn't even out yet, I'd really be interested to see how you come to an authoritative conclusion such as this.

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post #93 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
How so?

This is another one of those "amazing posts" where I either wonder if I'm addressing a time traveler from the future or a person with mind reading and clairvoyant abilities.

Since the PS3 isn't even out yet, I'd really be interested to see how you come to an authoritative conclusion such as this.
It's just an opinion on a message board.

It's based on nothing more then what I think are some interesting parallels.

1. Hard to develop for. From everything I've read so far (interviews with John Carmack and the recent stories on the Octopiler) it seems that development on the Cell is going to be pretty tough. This is troubling for a few reasons. If the Xbox 360 turns out to be much easier to develop for, we may see 3rd parties develop games from scratch on the 360 and port them to the PS3 for monetary reasons. Even if the PS3 is slightly more powerful, you'd only ever see the different on stuff built from the ground up for it.

2. They're breaking from the pack on the storage media. This is kind of similar to Nintendo's decision to stick with cartridges back on the N64. The rest of the industry had already moved ahead to CD's. At this point in time the rest of the industry (PC, Nintendo...kind of, and MS) are going to be sticking with the DVD format for the foreseeable future. And yes, I do understand it doesn't provide Sony with any of the same storage problems that Nintendo faced with the N64, it is an interesting parallel worth mentioning and we don't know what issues could arise.

3. It's their 3rd major home console, just like the N64. Another parallel. I don't think we've seen a company stay unamiously on top for longer then 3 generations yet.

4. They seem to be getting complacent, and this is just my opinion. When I look at the PS3 and Sony's current state of affairs, I just get the feeling that they think they can do no wrong right now. That every decision they make is going to work because they are Sony. How could they possibly be wrong? To me, it just feels an awful lot like how Nintendo used to be.

I didn't intend for my statement to turn into an point by point essay on how I formed my opinions, but there it is.
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post #94 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:44 AM
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You can find parallels with anything if you look hard enough. Huge problems arise with this method here though. Sony is a vast empire of consumer electronics. Nintendo has always been a gaming company. They just don't do anything else and aren't that big. So Sony decided they wanted to do a console and did it. They wiped out Sega and took the lead from Nintendo. MS is doing the same, but it's very different now. Sony has much bigger reserves, and much more at stake: sales of displays, players, content, and licensing.
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post #95 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
You can find parallels with anything if you look hard enough. Huge problems arise with this method here though. Sony is a vast empire of consumer electronics. Nintendo has always been a gaming company. They just don't do anything else and aren't that big. So Sony decided they wanted to do a console and did it. They wiped out Sega and took the lead from Nintendo. MS is doing the same, but it's very different now. Sony has much bigger reserves, and much more at stake: sales of displays, players, content, and licensing.
I don't think anyone has to look that hard to see those similarities. They're pretty blatantly obvious. However, I agree it is not the same situation. Only time is going to tell. I stand by my opinion. The PS3 will likely sell extremely well, but when the dust clears the 360 and the Rev are going to have taken a huge chunk of the market.
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post #96 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 11:06 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeavyC
It's just an opinion on a message board.
Some people have trouble with that, unfortunately.
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post #97 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by PhdWho
Some people have trouble with that, unfortunately.

Only when people like you try to pass their opinions off as facts.

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post #98 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 11:13 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
Only when people like you try to pass their opinions off as facts.
shhhhhhhhhh........it's ok
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post #99 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 11:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
Only when people like you try to pass their opinions off as facts.
Everything would be a whole lot easier if people just assumed what everyone put on a message board was their opinion. It's also a great deal less frusturating.

Unless someone references an actual fact, it's an opinion.
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post #100 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by PhdWho
shhhhhhhhhh........it's ok
As usual, you don't even bother to deny it.

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post #101 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by price3
Each sale of a 360 doesn't hurt Sony at all, since many people will be buying both systems just like they did this time.
A larger percentage of people buying both Next-Gen systems (or all 3 systems) doesn't necessarily bode the best for Sony either. If a lot of people that previously only bought a Playstation decide to buy 2 or 3 systems for the next generation that would likely represent an erosion in the dedicated Playstation user's base.

Generally that could likely equate to less games/software per Playstation which you have to keep in mind it's the "attach rate" of software to units that Sony would be relying on to recoup any possible losses on PS3 hardware.


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In my opinion the PS3 will have the most exclusive content because most developers are in Japan, and the 360 launch was pretty much a failure there, even selling less than the original xbox did at launch (according to Play magazine).
That attachment rate will also factor into how much resources developers devote to a console. For instance I have all 3 current gen consoles but I bought many more titles for Xbox, 2nd for PS and 3rd for GC. Evidently a lot of people actually bought only a few GC titles which resulted in a major amount of developers publishing titles only for PS2 and Xbox.

In a similar way the longer a viable alternative to BR might stay alive in the form of HD DVD it would accentuate any cost disadvantages if there are indeed such disadvantages for BR companies.

Basically, IF there is a lot of loss in the PS3 pricing, the more loss that Sony would take the more important it also becomes that they win BR and the Console race decisively and quickly.

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post #102 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 02:46 PM
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And the other important thing to note about the possible price of the PS3 is that Sony cannot afford to take $300-400 losses on each console [as rumored lately]. Why ? It is a given that Sony will sell at least a couple million consoles during the first quarter of launch. I am willing to give credit to Sony's assertion that MS made a blunder in launching their console without making sure that they had enough consoles available at retail - implying that Sony would infact produce enough consoles to satisfy [arguably 2-3x] greater demand for the PS3.

So, selling just 2-3 million PS3s in the first year of production [a reasonable expectation, given the history] will put Sony in the red by almost a billion dollars. Can Sony take that kinds of losses?
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post #103 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 03:38 PM
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Sony's revenues in 2004 were over $70 billion. A company that size can take a big hit. The question is, will they ever catch up enough to profit from the PS3, or show enough of a "win" with Blu-ray to make it worthwhile? If not their stock could take a big hit (maybe by 2008) since it speaks to poor strategy and management and a bad growth outlook.

Edit: Also, they better sell WAY more than 2-3 million units in the first year or they truly are screwed. Even just in North America. IIRC Sony sold 1 million PS2s in ONE DAY (first day of sales) in Japan and half that in the US.
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post #104 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 04:20 PM
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Sony's revenues in 2004 were over $70 billion. A company that size can take a big hit. The question is, will they ever catch up enough to profit from the PS3, or show enough of a "win" with Blu-ray to make it worthwhile? If not their stock could take a big hit (maybe by 2008) since it speaks to poor strategy and management and a bad growth outlook.
Exactly, companies generally don't run with a plan that pencils them in for that much loss. Take for instance, MS which could theoretically afford to take an even bigger hit than Sony. After eating $4bill+ in rumored losses on Xbox one due to the expense of the hardware they made major adjustments in the next-gen and penciled in a plan that doesn't involve those kind of losses. Removal of the built-in harddrive for instance was designed to be sure 360 costs are more fiscally responsible.

MS could 'take a hit' and give away HD DVD drives with every Xbox if it meant that much to them but that's not likely, even if Toshiba gave away massive incentive. Most public companies still have to answer to shareholders whether they can afford to 'take a hit' or not.

The wild card is no one really knows what the 'the hit' would be to Sony but it's certainly reasonable to assume that they'd want to get return on investment as soon as possible by strong game and movie software sales on the PS3.

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post #105 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 05:15 PM
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How much profit does each Blu-Ray disc potentially net Sony? What percentage of PS3's potential customers will buy it for Blu-Ray and will own a HDTV? Considering that the console costs $700 (conservative estimate) and it sells for $450 (a pricing sweet spot that Sony should aim for if it wants to 'sell a million PS3s' on day one in Japan and half that in US), that would mean at least a $250 loss per console sold. If the PS3 sells millions upon millions of consoles during the first quarter or two of its production life (when the loss per console is the highest), that would mean a loss of up to a billion dollars in half year.

Sony will definitely make some money back on the games, peripherals and Blu-Ray movie sales, but they will bleed money out the wazoo. PS3 is not that big of a Blu-Ray market if they want to make their lost money back.
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post #106 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj
How much profit does each Blu-Ray disc potentially net Sony? What percentage of PS3's potential customers will buy it for Blu-Ray and will own a HDTV? Considering that the console costs $700 (conservative estimate) and it sells for $450 (a pricing sweet spot that Sony should aim for if it wants to 'sell a million PS3s' on day one in Japan and half that in US), that would mean at least a $250 loss per console sold. If the PS3 sells millions upon millions of consoles during the first quarter or two of its production life (when the loss per console is the highest), that would mean a loss of up to a billion dollars in half year.

Sony will definitely make some money back on the games, peripherals and Blu-Ray movie sales, but they will bleed money out the wazoo. PS3 is not that big of a Blu-Ray market if they want to make their lost money back.

At a conservative 1 million units sold in the first year at $300 loss on each unit....you are talking a cool $300 million in losses. Since the bottom line at Sony these past few years has been anything but spectacular ($1.6 billion last year) a loss like this will hurt a great deal. Now, take the estimate that 3-4 million of these babies are gonna sell in the first year and you have a recipe for a serious loss. :eek:

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post #107 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 06:00 PM
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Is there anyone posting here currently attending or plan to attend Destination PlayStation 2006 at Loews Miami Beach Hotel which continues on until Friday, I believe ?

And to my Premier League supporters, anyone attending DevStation in London on Wed. or Thurs.?

We would appreciate some news ! :)
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post #108 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 06:23 PM
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Hello? Testing 1, 2, 3... Is this thing on?

1 million, 3-4 million, etc. are ridiculous estimates for the first year of PS3 sales. If that is all Sony sells they will make news as a huge corporate failure. It has been anticipated for a long time that they will lose well over a $ billion in the first year, and several times that wouldn't be a terrible shock.
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post #109 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 07:04 PM
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Major shareholders (think Dodge & Cox) actually are MORE interested in the future use of the Cell chip in applications other than PS3 ……rather than a slight delay in the launch on PS3 from what was initially expected.

Getting the Cell into PS3 gives it a high-profile start and after a few years (due to the economies of scale) production costs should decline and get it into broader use.
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post #110 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 07:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
Hello? Testing 1, 2, 3... Is this thing on?

1 million, 3-4 million, etc. are ridiculous estimates for the first year of PS3 sales. If that is all Sony sells they will make news as a huge corporate failure. It has been anticipated for a long time that they will lose well over a $ billion in the first year, and several times that wouldn't be a terrible shock.
3-4 million sales in the first year is a conservative estimate assuming that the PS3 will have the same kind of production problems as xbox360, especially with much more complex technology. So, may be PS3 sells 10 million in the first year. What would that cost Sony? 2-3 billion?

Yeah, losing a couple billion in the first year isn't a terrible shock, at all. They'll make it back on blu-ray sales to the PS3 userbase. :rolleyes:

There are two possible choices open to Sony. Delay the launch of the PS3 till the technology becomes more economical, but that doesn't make sense in light of Sony's repeated insistence that the PS3 will launch in Spring '06. The other choice is to launch multiple SKUs of the PS3 a la Xbox360. But Sony also denied that possibility.

There is something missing from this picture. Who is lying? The analysts making these pricing predictions or Sony? :confused: :rolleyes:
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post #111 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 08:35 PM
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The analysts dont have to be lying, they can just be wrong, as they often are, and as they were with the PS2. I dont see what the difficulty is with this. Every console maker loses money the first year, Sony can afford to lose a lot, they get more than just game systems in peoples homes.

If Sony only sells 4 million units one year from launch, they are a long way from reaching the point where they CAN profit by increasing production enough, plus they will apparently have lost huge market share and the gamble on Blu-ray, which means the market will punish them hard. Anyway, frankly I think its an absurd scenario.

Yes, my apostrophe key is broken in case anyones wondering.
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post #112 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 09:16 PM
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Possible Playstation 3 delay won’t zap Sony !

Much ado over nothing…………

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post #113 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:31 PM
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Here's some words of wisdom:

"The way you win big in this space is not by charging $5 less for your console. It is by bringing the revolution. By bringing the user experiences they can't get anywhere else."
- Seamus Blackley

Gary


- Don't trust sigs
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post #114 of 121 Old 02-27-2006, 10:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
1 million, 3-4 million, etc. are ridiculous estimates for the first year of PS3 sales.
I think people need to be careful in distinguishing estimates for the first full year vs estimates for sales in the year that it launches. I think some of these lower estimates are for 2006 if it ships late in the year. I agree with you that a full years sales better be a lot higher than those numbers or Sony will be crying and Microsoft (or somebody else) rejoicing.

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post #115 of 121 Old 02-28-2006, 12:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by price3
Each sale of a 360 doesn't hurt Sony at all, since many people will be buying both systems just like they did this time. In my opinion the PS3 will have the most exclusive content because most developers are in Japan, and the 360 launch was pretty much a failure there, even selling less than the original xbox did at launch (according to Play magazine).
Also I know a couple people who had 360's fail and had to be returned, so heat issues are not only Sony's issue.
This time around you aren't talking about $200 or $300...you are talking the northside of $600 per unit, with the accessories...Unless people have a lot of extra cash sitting around I am of the opinion that there will be far fewer duplicate sales this go around. Game console sales are being coupled (in many cases) with flat panel TV sales so there is a lot of cash/credit being spent...last time XBox was going up against PS2 and GC as the "new kid on the block". Now they have an established and decent reputation, they aren't unknown.

At any rate, I was talking about new customers rather than upgraders...I don't think many new customers (defined as those that don't currently own any gaming platform) who choose XBox 360 now or this summer (when PS3 still isn't shipping), will then turn around and buy PS3 next year because they want titles specific to PS3, especially if PS3 comes in higher than estimated $400-$500 range.

Just an opinion from someone who has been both first and second in launching new products...it really sucks being the second guy to launch...
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post #116 of 121 Old 02-28-2006, 07:30 AM
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Sony will sell every PS3 they can build. Don't believe me, just ask any kid in this country whether they want one.
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post #117 of 121 Old 02-28-2006, 09:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulwozniak
Sony will sell every PS3 they can build. Don't believe me, just ask any kid in this country whether they want one.
True. And you'd get the same answer if you asked him if he wanted a Ferrari for a car, a Ducati for a bike and a super model for a girl friend. ;)

It's one thing to want something, but entirely another thing to be able to "afford" it. This is not a Gameboy we are talking about, so who are you kidding with that statement?
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post #118 of 121 Old 02-28-2006, 09:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulwozniak
Sony will sell every PS3 they can build. Don't believe me, just ask any kid in this country whether they want one.
Would I want a PS3 if it was offered to me? Sure. Am I going to buy one? No.

Those are two completely separate questions as pointed out by the other post. I'd also like a toilet made out of soild gold.

I don't think anyone here who's being critical of the PS3 thinks it's going to flop or be unpopular. Most likely it will be the exact opposite. However, Sony is really betting the farm on this sucker and there are a couple of different ways it could blow up in their faces.

Who knows what is going to happen though?
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post #119 of 121 Old 02-28-2006, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeavyC
However, Sony is really betting the farm on this sucker and there are a couple of different ways it could blow up in their faces.

Who knows what is going to happen though?
I totally agree. There was just a bit too much 'OMG a billion dollars Sony is in trouble' kind of rhetoric implied above for my taste. A company that can't risk a loss amounting to 3-5% of it's annual revenue for a new product in a field they are already established in is being too uptight, IMO, and risk-shy companies fade away all the time. Grow or die, the fundamental rule of business. Sometimes you lose hard (Lucent) sometimes you win big (Google), but take no risk and you absolutely guarantee failure.
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post #120 of 121 Old 03-01-2006, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeavyC
Who knows what is going to happen though?
Kutaragi knows.

And since he is back at doing what he does BEST, rest assured come hell or high water, he will get PS3 out by the holiday season.
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