PlayStation 3 may be delayed a year - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 121 Old 02-19-2006, 11:14 PM - Thread Starter
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PlayStation 3 may be delayed a year

By Reuters
http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+ma...3-6041327.html

Story last modified Sun Feb 19 17:29:45 PST 2006

Sony's next-generation PlayStation 3 video game console might not appear in key markets this year and could cost the company $900 per unit to produce initially, according to Merrill Lynch analysts quoted in the Financial Times on Sunday.
Sony has indicated a spring launch for its console in Japan and the industry is not expecting a North American launch until November, the FT said.

But Hitoshi Kuriyama of Merrill Lynch in Japan said there are reports that the PS3 could be delayed by between six and 12 months, meaning an autumn launch in Japan and a late 2006 or early 2007 launch in the United States, the FT said.

Merrill Lynch analysts in San Francisco have estimated that the initial bill of materials for PS3 could approach $900, falling to $320 by three years after launch, the FT said.

The implications are that Sony could have to take a substantial loss on the PS3 through subsidies or risk low sales at the higher price and hand the advantage to Microsoft to be first to market with its Xbox 360 next-generation console, the FT said.

Sony is likely to reveal more on its plans for the console at the Game Developers Conference in San Jose, Calif., in March and the E3 video games show in Los Angeles in May, the FT said.



Story Copyright © 2006 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

Here is the link!

http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+ma...l?tag=nefd.top
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post #2 of 121 Old 02-19-2006, 11:57 PM
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If HD-DVD can keep on schedule with their strategy of staying cheaper and simpler, and ability to best integrate into the existing DVD supply chain - they could have a nice head start

Of course Toshiba has to meet the March deadline, which may or may not be feasable
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post #3 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 03:18 AM
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How would late 2006 in the US be a year delay?

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post #4 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:56 AM
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If sony wants to win this blu-ray/HD DVD format war...they better get that PS3 out ASAP. I am not going to believe anything about the PS3 right now until the gaming conferance this March direct from Sony. (Price,release dates ect..)
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post #5 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 08:24 AM
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Thanksgiving/Christmas in Japan with a Spring 2007 US Launch. That's my guess.
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post #6 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 09:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gai
How would late 2006 in the US be a year delay?
I'm not saying I believe it, as it's all from one source, but it is spelled out right there in the article. Sony has been saying 'spring 2006'. If it's spring 2007 for the US that's a year, which they imply is worst case.

The industry and most of us have expectations set for late this year. For the US market January-February doesn't make much sense at all.
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post #7 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 10:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
I'm not saying I believe it, as it's all from one source, but it is spelled out right there in the article. Sony has been saying 'spring 2006'. If it's spring 2007 for the US that's a year, which they imply is worst case.

The industry and most of us have expectations set for late this year. For the US market January-February doesn't make much sense at all.

What doesn't make sense is Sony allowing MS to have that much free, lead time with the 360 out in the marketplace, unchallenged.

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post #8 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 10:22 AM
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Once again Sony still says spring.

"We're aiming for spring, but we haven't announced specific regions," a spokeswoman for Sony Computer Entertainment said, adding that it was waiting for the final specifications on some of the technology it is using in the PS3, such as that related to the Blu-ray DVD drive and to input and output video and sound.

The specifications are decided by industry consortiums.

"We're waiting for them until the last possible minute, but the launch could be pushed back if they're not decided soon," the spokeswoman said. If the PS3 is not ready in time, the company will choose the next best timing for the launch, she said.
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post #9 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 10:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinca1
Once again Sony still says spring.

"We're aiming for spring, but we haven't announced specific regions," a spokeswoman for Sony Computer Entertainment said, adding that it was waiting for the final specifications on some of the technology it is using in the PS3, such as that related to the Blu-ray DVD drive and to input and output video and sound.

The specifications are decided by industry consortiums.

"We're waiting for them until the last possible minute, but the launch could be pushed back if they're not decided soon," the spokeswoman said. If the PS3 is not ready in time, the company will choose the next best timing for the launch, she said.

Linkage, for the sake of completion? ;)

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post #10 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 10:27 AM
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http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,185387,00.html
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post #11 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
What doesn't make sense is Sony allowing MS to have that much free, lead time with the 360 out in the marketplace, unchallenged.
Well, they may not have much choice. Or rather, the only other choice may be launch earler and take a huge hit in $$ (or have an unacceptable price). At the very best, worldwide, MS will sell $10 million 360s by the end of 2006, most of which will not have HD drives. Within a year from launch - unless they really choke hard - PS3 will easily surpass that number, and it's still presumed that they will all have BD drives.

Even if it makes them late, I think Sony is better off launching with the supply chain full and with the bugs shaken out. Unlike... Another... Um. Console that I could mention.
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post #12 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
Well, they may not have much choice. Or rather, the only other choice may be launch earler and take a huge hit in $$ (or have an unacceptable price). At the very best, worldwide, MS will sell $10 million 360s by the end of 2006, most of which will not have HD drives. Within a year from launch - unless they really choke hard - PS3 will easily surpass that number, and it's still presumed that they will all have BD drives.

Even if it makes them late, I think Sony is better off launching with the supply chain full and with the bugs shaken out. Unlike... Another... Um. Console that I could mention.
Agreed 100 percent.

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post #13 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 12:11 PM
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Well, they may not have much choice. Or rather, the only other choice may be launch earler and take a huge hit in $$ (or have an unacceptable price). At the very best, worldwide, MS will sell $10 million 360s by the end of 2006, most of which will not have HD drives. Within a year from launch - unless they really choke hard - PS3 will easily surpass that number, and it's still presumed that they will all have BD drives.
The implications of a launch that late would go beyond the actual numbers of 360 units (and don't forget Revolution units) sold. You have to keep in mind the impact on Developers and the momentum mindshare gain for the competition.

Playstations biggest asset by far is the Brand power built up from PS1 and PS2. Not only the PS brand but also the brand of the main exclusive franchises. As new brands emerge the previous brands begin to fade some in terms of the momentum / "hot" factor. Hard to measure how much impact it has if another Christmas goes by with no Next-Gen GT, GTA, MGS, DMC, Tekken etc. while other Next-Gen franchises get the mindshare, but there is definitely some impact.

Add in the fact that developers planning their development schedules have to budget resources while planning for no 2006 income from PS3 sales. It would not be as simple as catching up up in sales units.

Sony will avoid that scenario if at all possible, even if it means launching before conditions are ideal for the launch (i.e. limited supply or less QA).

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Analysts generally agree that Sony will do whatever it can to avoid missing the key year-end holiday season this year, but many believe it will be unable to make the PS3 in great volumes.

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post #14 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 12:31 PM
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Think about it folks: There is no way that Sony is going to let Microsoft have two uncontested holiday shopping seasons and HD-DVD have one uncontested shopping season. The PS3 WILL be here by the end of November one way or another (even if this means shortages). I tend to think that they will roll out a VERY limited number of PS3's this year, say there are production shortages, and then wait until next year (while parts / production prices fall) to do a "blitz". Sony has to have something in the stores to keep people from going for the 360.
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post #15 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 03:46 PM
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The main two problems are, the unit cost way too much to make, at $900.00 to $1000.00, maybe sell it for $500.00, at least a $500.00 bath and more based on marketing costs and other such things.

Problem two, places like EA have come out and said that the first titles are at least 6-9 months away, add in any delays, you are up to at least a year.

If there is not enough software, cannot make any money back based on license fees.

And when folks say, PS2 sold 100 million units, at what price range did they sell the most, when it dropped to the $199.00 range.

A lot of folks do not have that kind of $$$$ right now, gas, energy, food is taking up most folk's money right now.

Maybe HD-DVD had the right idea, use the factories that already make SD players and movie disc to keep the costs down so they can afford to release $500.00 players.
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post #16 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 04:02 PM
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Thats makes zero sense. Its ok to buy a toshiba player at 500 but not anything else. Can you be any more biased. There also is ZERO PROOF that it cost that much to make.
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post #17 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 04:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahlsim
The implications of a launch that late would go beyond the actual numbers of 360 units (and don't forget Revolution units) sold. You have to keep in mind the impact on Developers and the momentum mindshare gain for the competition.
..
Add in the fact that developers planning their development schedules have to budget resources while planning for no 2006 income from PS3 sales. It would not be as simple as catching up up in sales units.
Those are fair points. I guess my bet is that (1) the developers are late enough on PS3 work anyway and have enough existing cashflow that they can afford to suck it up, and (2) Sony has tons of market share to burn. They had 5x the sales of Xbox or GameCube, after all. Depending on how it plays out it will probably be painful for them in the short term, but I'm thinking Sony will be sitting pretty by early 2008, if the product is any good.
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post #18 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 04:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinca1
Thats makes zero sense. Its ok to buy a toshiba player at 500 but not anything else. Can you be any more biased. There also is ZERO PROOF that it cost that much to make.
I assume you are talking about the $900 estimated cost at the beginning of this thread. Were you one of those who thought the original ML report was a hoax? I suppose it still could be, but that appears to be a lot slimmer chance today. You are right that there isn't any "PROOF", but by the same reasoning, there is no "PROOF" that the actual costs are $600, or $500, or whatever other numbers you want to make up. You do have a report that some industry analysts think the price is going to around $900. If "you" want credibility, go out and find a current report by industry analysts that estimate a much lower cost and post a link.
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post #19 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 04:35 PM
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Oh and now it is more true?? give me a break sony says its not true so that dont matter does it?? wheres the proof it is more?? NONE!!
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post #20 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 04:45 PM
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post #21 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnu
I assume you are talking about the $900 estimated cost at the beginning of this thread. Were you one of those who thought the original ML report was a hoax? I suppose it still could be, but that appears to be a lot slimmer chance today. You are right that there isn't any "PROOF", but by the same reasoning, there is no "PROOF" that the actual costs are $600, or $500, or whatever other numbers you want to make up. You do have a report that some industry analysts think the price is going to around $900. If "you" want credibility, go out and find a current report by industry analysts that estimate a much lower cost and post a link.


Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinca1

Oh and now it is more true?? give me a break sony says its not true so that dont matter does it?? wheres the proof it is more?? NONE!!

this same person from ml said to sell amd and buy intel.

http://sharikou.blogspot.com/2006/01...ing-intel.html

http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/07/tech...wrap/index.htm
You're probably wasting your time, Kevin.

It never ceases to amaze me in these threads when I see people outright refuse to look at the concrete facts and willingly embrace contrary and already debunked rumor, FUD, and misinformation instead, simply because the facts aren't to their liking.

It couldn't be more obvious.

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post #22 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ
It never ceases to amaze me in these threads when I see people outright refuse to look at the concrete facts and willingly embrace contrary and already debunked rumor, FUD, and misinformation instead, simply because the facts aren't to their liking.
LOL,
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post #23 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:25 PM
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The funny thing is when toshiba announced the 499 player it was my god what a deal but if sony does its the world is going to end. Price maters when it fits there needs.
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post #24 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:47 PM
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OK. The ML report says $350 for just the BD drive? What happened to the Merrill Lynch Japan report from last June where they stated the whole device cost just under $500 with each core component (RSX graphics synthesizer, CELL processor, and BD-ROM drive demanding $100 a piece. Now the price is 3.5 times that for the drive alone?

How about the CELL processor being $230/chip, even though IBM was getting 65 chips per 200 slot wafer in a 90nm process at a price of about $150 per chip back in November of 2005, and they've stated repeatedly that the process is getting smaller (IBM just announced 32nm!) and chip yield is increasing at a rate faster than they've seen for any other processor? If IBM is getting yields greather than 50% per wafer, which is conservative given the , then the cost per processor is down to $100/processor and Sony won't be paying OEM pricing due to their $1+ billion dollar investment in IBM chip fabrication facilities.

Sorry, but you replace the figures for the BD-ROM drive and the Cell and keep the rest of their figures, and the price comes down to right under $500 to manufacture. If they sell for $499 they break even as soon as you buy an extra controller or 1GB MS Pro Duo card since their profit margin on peripherals is much larger, though they will also be double dipping when it comes to licensing fees this time around: once for PS3 publishing and once for BD-ROM format. And once you factor in the yen to dollar conversion, provided the US dollar is strong to the Yen, then Sony will do OK. Sony may see a short term loss, but nowhere near $400 per console at a $900 cost to manufacture and a $500 US retail price. They'll take a $100 per console loss at launch and continue to drive down price by increasing chip yield and maturing technology, just like they did with the PS2.

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post #25 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 05:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinca1
The funny thing is when toshiba announced the 499 player it was my god what a deal but if sony does its the world is going to end. Price maters when it fits there needs.
Because the facts are, one of the ideas behind HD-DVD was to use exisiting factories, that way, with minor re- tooling, the costs are a lot, lot less then starting from the begining like Blu-Ray is doing, those extra high prices we pay for the first units are those start-up costs.

As more and more are being made, the costs come down, easy as that.

That is about one of the biggest advantages that HD-DVD has, one of few yes, but still a big one.

Look at how the stock market reacted today to the delay and costs of the unit, if they start selling it at $500.00, and lose $400.00 a unit, on every million sold at first they lose $400,000,000 ( millions) that is a lot of license fees to recoup to make it worth it.

Share-holders are going to freak out on a unit that might take 3 years of production to make it cheap enough to produce to make a profit on it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinca1
The funny thing is when toshiba announced the 499 player it was my god what a deal but if sony does its the world is going to end. Price maters when it fits there needs.
When Sony makes a $499 stand alone player I will buy it.

kevinca1, do you know something you not saying?


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post #27 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 06:01 PM
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I wish gasoline companies would make $50,000 cars and sell them for $25,000.

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post #28 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 06:07 PM
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The cost have been debunked already if you read the post about what ml said and this guy specific you will see he has no credability, there also is zero proff of any of his annalysis. read above your post to see what they said lasy year. no i have not said a stand alone player will be out but it is possable. i was referring to what is rumored the ps3 will cost.
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post #29 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 06:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boo
Look at how the stock market reacted today to the delay and costs of the unit, if they start selling it at $500.00, and lose $400.00 a unit, on every million sold at first they lose $40,000,000 ( millions) that is a lot of license fees to recoup to make it worth it.
You're math is off. At the price suggested by Merrill Lynch, they lose $400 million per 1 million units sold, not $40 million. If they ship 5 million worldwide before 12/31/06 like they did with the PS2 launch, and it looks like they're mirroring the timeframe, that's a $2 billion dollar loss to go along with their multi-billion dollar investment in developing the thing. Sorry, but Sony is not that stupid. Remember when analysts were saying the PSP would be anywhere from $300 to $500, and then it was a steal at $250. Sony never once made it a point to discourage people from thinking it would be more expensive than it was.

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Share-holders are going to freak out on a unit that might take 3 years of production to make it cheap enough to produce to make a profit on it.
Shareholders that listen to a guy who rated AMD as sell on the eve of Intel's last earnings report should probably have their heads examined. Having dealt with analysts in the past, many of them don't know much about what they're covering. And as I posted earlier, evidence from other sources, including a previous Merrill Lynch writeup on the PS3, show that the component prices listed on this latest report are a bit overinflated.

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post #30 of 121 Old 02-20-2006, 06:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephShaw
You're math is off. At the price suggested by Merrill Lynch, they lose $400 million per 1 million units sold, not $40 million. If they ship 5 million worldwide before 12/31/06 like they did with the PS2 launch, and it looks like they're mirroring the timeframe, that's a $2 billion dollar loss to go along with their multi-billion dollar investment in developing the thing. Sorry, but Sony is not that stupid. Remember when analysts were saying the PSP would be anywhere from $300 to $500, and then it was a steal at $250. Sony never once made it a point to discourage people from thinking it would be more expensive than it was.

My math was right, I just missed punching a zero :p

And everyone should forget what the PS2 sold at launch, I believe it was $299.00 at first, $499.00 puts it in a different world, buy that, hard drive might be a $100.00 more, HD cables-$40.00, extra controller-$30.00, remote-$30.00, games-$50.00 each, buy four like I did when the 360 came out-$200.00, $900.00 total, which is a lot of money for most folks today to play games.

By the time it comes out, X-Box 360 inventory should be fine, price might be around $199.00 ( no extras ), Nintendo's new unit will be out at around $150.00-200.00.
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