One of the main reasons Blu-ray will succeed over HD DVD - AVS Forum
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Blu-ray Players > One of the main reasons Blu-ray will succeed over HD DVD
Timwit's Avatar Timwit 06:45 PM 02-27-2006
US. You and I. The tech-savvy early adopters are virtually the only ones who will buy either player at first - the vast majority of whom will choose Blu-ray. News reports will tout BD as the projected winner of this format war! The masses will begin to feel it's safe to jump into the Blu-ray waters. Then, as BD player prices come down and the public's DVD players break down, necessitating replacements, BD players will grow; much slower than DVD, but it will be a future-proof status-symbol, resulting in a long steady growth.

This wasn't the case in the old days of VHS and Beta. There was no waiting until the early adopters decided who would win the war. There was just porn, and both formats had it. Also, it was a brand new concept. In contrast, today people already have their DVD players & DVRs. They're in no hurry to buy, as they were when video tape machines first came out. Who IS in a hurry to buy? Those of us who are really excited about HD PQ!

Polls show that a large percentage of people are going to wait to buy until there's a clear winner. Most of this large percentage are J6pk, while most of the small percentage who will not wait are videophiles. It's kind of nice! So many inferior products, in CE and computers, have become standards in the past for reasons other than quality.

This time, it's up to US. :cool:
-Tim

SurfingMatt27's Avatar SurfingMatt27 08:14 PM 02-27-2006
PRICE!!!

Unless i see a $500 or less blu-ray player then i'm sticking with a PS3 and HD-DVD player to cover my bases.
HorrorScope's Avatar HorrorScope 09:07 PM 02-27-2006
I was surprised that in a gamers site who put this to a vote would have HD DVD in the lead when asked which would they prefer. It's been a roller coaster.

http://ve3d.ign.com/ (Right column)
DJSloan's Avatar DJSloan 11:42 AM 02-28-2006
I think the other half of the Blu-Ray camp selected 8-track.
PhdWho's Avatar PhdWho 11:53 AM 02-28-2006
Or just enjoy the HD that is steadily growing and available now over Sats and OTA.

You are still stuck pretty much with 'just movies' when it comes to BR and HDDVD.
The switch over is going to be pretty slow.
Earz's Avatar Earz 03:06 PM 02-28-2006
People that visit boards like this usually have no problem with the differences between hd dvd and up scaled sd dvd ect.

But I believe that name as a new format...is just begging for trouble with the general public, and that Blu Ray will be an easier to market name without the identity problems.

Just think about your average consumer and a BB sales person for many examples. ;)
AV_Integrated's Avatar AV_Integrated 03:12 PM 02-28-2006
HD-DVD has a definite issue with the name. The name they tout non-stop as being a marketing advantage tool actually leads them to the issue that if you type in 'HD-DVD' on ebay you get 1,000 responses or more currently - almost all of which revolve around upconverting DVD players. You can't find decent info on any search engine unless you have a unique identifying brand name.

People are going to be going through the roof when they buy their HD DVD player only to find out it is a upconverting DVD player, not a HD-DVD player.

US? No, not us... I think it will be the news reports in a year or so that have 1 million PS3s sold and only 100K HD-DVD players. A 10:1 market share will spur more purchasing of stand alone Blu-Ray Disc players.

Am I sure? Nah, just confident. But, I will be one of those PS3 owners for sure and I'm not gambling on HD-DVD to win out for sure.
xb1032's Avatar xb1032 03:17 PM 02-28-2006
No one is a clear winner yet since the real war hasn't really started. However, blu-ray has a lot more backing than HD-DVD. The only advantage I see for HD-DVD is the prices of the players. With more storage on blu-ray it makes more sense for the consumer for blu-ray to win out. You can never have enough storage on a disc. I'll be jumping on blu-ray because of the PS3.
RScottyL's Avatar RScottyL 06:18 PM 02-28-2006
I have "planned" to start buying Blu-Ray discs as soon as they come out to start my collection, but will wait to buy the player.
Forest Fan's Avatar Forest Fan 01:56 PM 03-01-2006
You might find the blu-ray discs cheaper if you wait until you have a player
rabident's Avatar rabident 04:59 PM 03-01-2006
Or at least better value in terms of what you get out of each disc.
Deja Vu's Avatar Deja Vu 05:10 PM 03-01-2006
DVD is going to be the winner. With the format war, problems with HD over component and higher costs for both hardware and movies the general public will hug DVD tighter than ever and HD-DVD and/or BR will become the new D-VHS or LD. If HD-DVD puts the DVD on one side and the HD version on the other and doesn't set the flag to prevent full HD over component for all new releases and sells the disc for DVD prices plus a couple of dollars then things will get interesting.

Cheers,

Grant
Charlie_Phogg's Avatar Charlie_Phogg 05:16 PM 03-01-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timwit
The masses will begin to feel it's safe to jump into the Blu-ray waters.
The masses don't even have displays that will support HD from either format (no HDMI, many without component which will only be 480p anyway). What makes you think they are going to jump in big time to either of these? Hell, half the people that purchase new displays don't even bother to upgrade their cable or satellite to HD service because they are perfectly happy watching SD on their new sets. And these same masses are going to flock to BR or HD-DVD?
Timwit's Avatar Timwit 10:21 PM 03-01-2006
Quote:
What makes you think they are going to jump in big time to either of these?
As I made clear in my post, I do not think the masses will "jump in big time." Quite the opposite. Now go back to the top of this thread and read the context of that sentence. In fact, I know it's a lot to read, but how about reading the whole post this time? Do you know what a strawman argument is, Charlie?

Quote:
And these same masses are going to flock to BR or HD-DVD?
I actually wrote, "...BD players will grow; much slower than DVD, but it will be a future-proof status-symbol, resulting in a long steady growth." Charlie, the next time you respond to a post, read it and understand it, lest you look foolish.

-Tim
rlindo's Avatar rlindo 07:23 AM 03-02-2006
You guys are funny.

The only way it will succeed over HD-DVD is if the prices of the BR players come down to HD-DVD level. You're smoking some serious junk if you think the avg consumer (and please, could people here cut the fuggin "Joe 6 Pack" description ****. Chances are the avg "J6P" is far more intelligent and stuff than most of the posters here but they simply do not focus their life around HT) is going to fork out double for a BR player because it is supposedly technologically superior. And don't think your supposed "J6Ps" simply can't afford it because I know of people both family and non-family who would fall under the "J6P" description here and I am confident they make more money in a year than 99% of the forum members.

To think HD-DVD players will just magically not sell while BR players drop in price is asinine. Unless BR players drop in price within a few months HD-DVD players will be in a good deal of homes of those people who plan to get into this hd stuff which no doubt is prolly a small %. The avg person who may want high def movies isn't going to just bam, not get HD-DVD if it is out there first and cheaper. My goodness. If I didnt know about all this and went into a store and saw a HD-DVD display and thought it looked nice I'd get it. Why do you people think in a store with BR and HD-DVD side by side with prolly identical or close to identical PQ people will choose the player that is double the price? That makes NO SENSE and I doubt sales people at those stores will convince them otherwise. If I were the avg consumer and a sales person was trying to sell me on the player costing twice as much and appeared to have the same PQ I'd think they were doing it to increase their commission and would grab the HD-DVD player.

Oh and to think the tiny % of people here will decide this "war" is silly too. So is relying on the PS3 to be the BR holy grail which may fail if it comes at one of the higher prices that have been estimated.

I am with those who think both formats will prolly struggle because as stated, the avg person doesn't have the displays needed for this nor do they CARE about having the display. My folks have a HD TV and got a HD cable dvr a year or so ago and they hardly watch HD on it. The only way they'd get a new BR or HD-dvd player is if I got one so they could borrow movies off me like they do with dvd right now. They could EASILY afford either player but they wouldn't do it simply because they do not care enough about this stuff to rush out and get one and that mentality (ie not caring enough) is what you will find with most people. Also, the avg person has prolly just got into dvd within the last few years and does not really feel the need to upgrade so quickly.

I'm hoping either format succeeds because I want HD movies on disc but I will not be surprised if they outright fail, become a niche product like LD or take off super slow and won't become mainstream for many, many years.
HorrorScope's Avatar HorrorScope 09:05 AM 03-02-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timwit
US. You and I. The tech-savvy early adopters are virtually the only ones who will buy either player at first - the vast majority of whom will choose Blu-ray. News reports will tout BD as the projected winner of this format war!
I agree this will have an effect. However I am seeing a resurgence of HD DVD in the minds of many even here for several reasons. I thought BR had a substantial lead in this and late last year the doomsayers were all touting HD DVD dead because they had a delay and BR would beat them to market. Well BR had a delay to and they will come out second and twice the price, those aren't great cards to have. It shouldn't take to long to see how much a player HD DVD will be in this once they are available. Personally I think both will bring the quality I’m satisfied with to my screen.

I agree with RLindo, what we are reading is many think they will need to have both. So they will start with the cheaper HD DVD and wait for BR to come down then jump on that via a standalone player or try to couple that with a PS3. However by that time, minds may have changed and they might say to themselves, HD DVD is satisfying all my needs now, so there is no reason to get BR. That imo is a strong possibility on how this can play out. If I buy into this early that will be close to my line of thinking. HD DVD wins upfront and that is a huge place to win.
tony17's Avatar tony17 10:00 AM 03-02-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlindo
You guys are funny.

The only way it will succeed over HD-DVD is if the prices of the BR players come down to HD-DVD level. You're smoking some serious junk if you think the avg consumer (and please, could people here cut the fuggin "Joe 6 Pack" description ****. Chances are the avg "J6P" is far more intelligent and stuff than most of the posters here but they simply do not focus their life around HT) is going to fork out double for a BR player because it is supposedly technologically superior. And don't think your supposed "J6Ps" simply can't afford it because I know of people both family and non-family who would fall under the "J6P" description here and I am confident they make more money in a year than 99% of the forum members.

To think HD-DVD players will just magically not sell while BR players drop in price is asinine. Unless BR players drop in price within a few months HD-DVD players will be in a good deal of homes of those people who plan to get into this hd stuff which no doubt is prolly a small %. The avg person who may want high def movies isn't going to just bam, not get HD-DVD if it is out there first and cheaper. My goodness. If I didnt know about all this and went into a store and saw a HD-DVD display and thought it looked nice I'd get it. Why do you people think in a store with BR and HD-DVD side by side with prolly identical or close to identical PQ people will choose the player that is double the price? That makes NO SENSE and I doubt sales people at those stores will convince them otherwise. If I were the avg consumer and a sales person was trying to sell me on the player costing twice as much and appeared to have the same PQ I'd think they were doing it to increase their commission and would grab the HD-DVD player.

Oh and to think the tiny % of people here will decide this "war" is silly too. So is relying on the PS3 to be the BR holy grail which may fail if it comes at one of the higher prices that have been estimated.

I am with those who think both formats will prolly struggle because as stated, the avg person doesn't have the displays needed for this nor do they CARE about having the display. My folks have a HD TV and got a HD cable dvr a year or so ago and they hardly watch HD on it. The only way they'd get a new BR or HD-dvd player is if I got one so they could borrow movies off me like they do with dvd right now. They could EASILY afford either player but they wouldn't do it simply because they do not care enough about this stuff to rush out and get one and that mentality (ie not caring enough) is what you will find with most people. Also, the avg person has prolly just got into dvd within the last few years and does not really feel the need to upgrade so quickly.

I'm hoping either format succeeds because I want HD movies on disc but I will not be surprised if they outright fail, become a niche product like LD or take off super slow and won't become mainstream for many, many years.
Well said Rob, I can't argue with that logic...
Ilka's Avatar Ilka 10:22 AM 03-02-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlindo
The only way it will succeed over HD-DVD is if the prices of the BR players come down to HD-DVD level. You're smoking some serious junk if you think the avg consumer (and please, could people here cut the fuggin "Joe 6 Pack" description **** ...
I would agree that eventually for a format to succeed it needs to be cost competitive. But since we will still be in the early adopter/mid-adopter stage for the next year or so, cost is not as important as you might think. For most of the early adopters, $$$ is not the issue.
PerHT's Avatar PerHT 11:06 AM 03-02-2006
Well, as stated above early adoper isn't really that price sensitive. If J6P are the target group right from the start then Tosh. is going to face reality pretty soon. You people mentioning J6P: I have a bridge not far from the Russian border to sell to you guys. Not very densely populated, but it sure is f****** cold there ;)

Yeah, price matters for J6P.. But by the time he/she's ready to buy HD stuff, prices will have dropped to meet J6P's demand. Oh, yeah HD might end up as niche products, but there's a lot more fuzz in the media about HD than for example SA-CD & DVD-A.

Per
Ken Ross's Avatar Ken Ross 01:16 PM 03-02-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by AV_Integrated
People are going to be going through the roof when they buy their HD DVD player only to find out it is a upconverting DVD player, not a HD-DVD player.
I doubt it. When people actually buy these things, it will be very clear that if they're buying an HD DVD player, it will play HD DVDs. Stores will have prominent signage, ads will make it clear etc etc.
tfelker's Avatar tfelker 04:03 PM 03-02-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timwit
US. You and I. The tech-savvy early adopters are virtually the only ones who will buy either player at first - the vast majority of whom will choose Blu-ray. News reports will tout BD as the projected winner of this format war! The masses will begin to feel it's safe to jump into the Blu-ray waters. Then, as BD player prices come down and the public's DVD players break down, necessitating replacements, BD players will grow; much slower than DVD, but it will be a future-proof status-symbol, resulting in a long steady growth.

This wasn't the case in the old days of VHS and Beta. There was no waiting until the early adopters decided who would win the war. There was just porn, and both formats had it. Also, it was a brand new concept. In contrast, today people already have their DVD players & DVRs. They're in no hurry to buy, as they were when video tape machines first came out. Who IS in a hurry to buy? Those of us who are really excited about HD PQ!

Polls show that a large percentage of people are going to wait to buy until there's a clear winner. Most of this large percentage are J6pk, while most of the small percentage who will not wait are videophiles. It's kind of nice! So many inferior products, in CE and computers, have become standards in the past for reasons other than quality.

This time, it's up to US. :cool:
-Tim
If only it were that simple. Unfortunately it isn't. While we (enthusiasts, early adopters) have some impact, there are to many other variables to say we will ultimately influence which way the table turns. Supply, demand, content, cost are just a few of the things that will determine the winner. I just think it is to early to tell, or even venture a good guess. Course part of the fun at this point is throwing opinions out there and letting us all take a shot at it. :)
seandudley's Avatar seandudley 12:04 PM 03-03-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Earz
Just think about your average consumer and a BB sales person for many examples. ;)
Case and point.. my father and I went by the local Best Buy hoping to find a HD-DVD player on display since I had read that there were displays set up at certain Best Buy stores already. My dad and I went seperate ways in the store for a minute, and while he was by himself he asked a BB sales person if they had any HD-DVD players on display. The BB sales person said they did, and pointing him to a player displaying an image. The player he showed my dad was an upscaling DVD player.
johnu's Avatar johnu 12:25 PM 03-03-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by seandudley
Case and point.. my father and I went by the local Best Buy hoping to find a HD-DVD player on display since I had read that there were displays set up at certain Best Buy stores already. My dad and I went seperate ways in the store for a minute, and while he was by himself he asked a BB sales person if they had any HD-DVD players on display. The BB sales person said they did, and pointing him to a player displaying an image. The player he showed my dad was an upscaling DVD player.
And what do you think would have happened if you asked that salesman about Blu-ray? I'm guessing the response would have been quite humorous. Presumably once they actually start selling players the sales people will at least know enough to point you in the right direction.
Clepto's Avatar Clepto 12:50 PM 03-03-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnu
And what do you think would have happened if you asked that salesman about Blu-ray? I'm guessing the response would have been quite humorous. Presumably once they actually start selling players the sales people will at least know enough to point you in the right direction.
I think he was illustrating the fact that there are currently 'HD DVD' players on the market, or marketed as 'High Definition DVD Players' while anything referred to as a 'Blu-ray player ' would likely be met with a blank stare, but probably won't be confused with an upconverting DVD player...
SingleAction's Avatar SingleAction 07:38 PM 03-03-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Earz
People that visit boards like this usually have no problem with the differences between hd dvd and up scaled sd dvd ect.

But I believe that name as a new format...is just begging for trouble with the general public, and that Blu Ray will be an easier to market name without the identity problems.

Just think about your average consumer and a BB sales person for many examples. ;)

Earz!

Is Blu Ray related to Blu tooth? Inquiring minds want to know :eek:
Patrick McGuire's Avatar Patrick McGuire 09:18 PM 03-08-2006
One thing must be considered is that the average consumer has absolutely no clue as to the benefits or superiority of the technology they are buying. They go by what their equally ignorant friends and neighbors think is best. Think VHS vs Beta. VHS was superior because it had more capital letters in it's name. Think RCA, JVC, IBM, etc. HD-DVD is self explanatory, Blu-Ray is what, a laser gun? Gee, Martha, I want a high definition DVD player not a laser gun!

Before I knew anything about video specs, I thought that VHS was the better format. Once informed otherwize, I chose Beta and had many happy years with my Sony SLHF-900. Sadly, this may happen again with the HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. Don't bury your head in the sand and believe the best format will win out. It doesn't matter what format has the best specs to Mr. and Mrs. Dumbsh_t, it matters what format has the better name.

SPREAD THE WORD BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE! BLU-RAY IS NOT A LASER GUN!
kraigk's Avatar kraigk 07:58 AM 03-09-2006
Lot's of insight here. If we follow various arguments I would be of the thinking that the the format that does the following wins:

1. Most software fastest and cheapest (and this can't just be their lousy titles)
2. Player that is best and cheapest
3. Greatest market penetration fastest - gets software and hardware in stores first.
Earz's Avatar Earz 08:08 AM 03-09-2006
Joe Average had better buy lots of hd dvd...and real quick after launch.
hd dvd is heavily subsidized, has a tiny nitche market, and needs big volume to make up for subsidizing in this tiny nitche initial and near term market.

This is why finnacially, I don't believe hd dvd can hang on long.
Some people here seem to think a few thousand A/V forum members represent the buying public....when nothing could be further from reality.

Blu Ray on the other hand is not as heavily subsidized, will meet the same nitche group of buyers, and should be able to hold out longer.
The PS3 will also help Blu Ray hang in there even though it will be heavily subsidized, it already has a booming market and following to make up for that.....were the two formats do not.....especially hd dvd.

So if we take the studio advantage, and better specs via 1080p and 50gb discs away from Blu Ray....I still see them as the lead horse.

None of this will happen overnight though either.
ckenisell's Avatar ckenisell 08:18 AM 03-09-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlindo
Unless BR players drop in price within a few months HD-DVD players will be in a good deal of homes of those people who plan to get into this hd stuff which no doubt is prolly a small %.
Have you ever heard the phrase, "you get what you pay for"?

Here's what I think will happen in the first year alone:

The people who buy HD-DVD players for $500 will be pissed because they spent $500 and don't have very many titles or their titles are limited to certain studios. Word will get out real fast that HD-DVD is "limiting". They'll also realize that they should have bought the more expensive version to get all of the features they REALLY wanted.

A Blu-Ray player will be released within the first year that costs very close to the same as HD-DVD players. The ONLY reason Pioneer is releasing their Elite player first, is to get as many high-end, "I'll pay anything because I HAVE to have it first" idiot sales. Once those sells have decreased, you'll see less expensive players hit the market. It won't take long because those that DO buy the high-end players, will tell everybody how great it is and how many titles they can get.

The PS3 will hit in Dec. That will be a nice bump for Blu-Ray, but not enough to do any real damage to HD-DVD. There definitely won't be enough of a supply for everybody to get one. These players sold out on the first day when only gamers wanted them. Now gamers AND videophiles want them. They will be hard to come by at any price.

Blu-Ray will beat HD-DVD on sheer content. Prices will drop on Blu-Ray dramatically drastically. Sony won't let HD-DVD beat them on price alone.

If you think about it, Blu-Ray has the best plan: Get as much money out of the early adopters as possible and drop prices once the high-end sales have decreased. They understand that masses aren't going to rush out and buy this at first at any price.

In my mind, I think it's plain stupid to buy any player this year. There need to be a LOT more titles that include DTS-HD and Dolby True-HD. HDMI 1.3 needs to be completed. (I'm not sure if BD-J is fully complete and implemented). Players need to be released that can output descrete 7.1 decoded DTS-HD and Dolby True-HD via analog. It just isn't here yet. Honestly, I don't think those features will even be ready for the second generation players. It looks like the third generation is where it will be.
emdawgz1's Avatar emdawgz1 09:15 AM 03-09-2006
Ummm chet,

If i want it , and i can afford it, why am i a stupid idiot for buying a B/R player this year???

Just because you dont want to buy it now , i wont call you stupid.

personally, when the sony or pioneer player hits the 500.00 price point, and if they roll the software out as announced. I'm in.

If that makes me stupid then.........DUH!!!
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