Blu-ray not getting any cheaper - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 158 Old 04-15-2006, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj
According to the MR I've seen 50% of console owners use it for DVD playback.

You have to agree that since the price of the Blue Ray player eill be much higher at first thn the actual PS3, I'm quite sure they will use those players a lot more than the Ps2 generation did with DVD's.
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post #92 of 158 Old 04-18-2006, 12:46 AM
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How many HDTV's do you guys think people have in their homes? Most teen-agers I know use their XBox or Playstation in their bedroom. I have one HDTV in my family room, and I even hooked up my son's Xbox360 to it for a couple of weeks just to how great the visuals are. Now the Xbox 360 is connected to a standard def TV in my son's bedroom and I'm feeling bad for not upgrading him to a HDTV. He plays games with his friends and on-line while I'm watching a movie or tv show in HD. So how many Playstation 3s will be connected to standard def TV's?
Price plays a huge part in deciding what the average person buys, and if you can get a HD-DVD player at list price for $500, it doesn't take much of a leap to suggest that they will be available within a year for $300. And as someone mentioned earlier, for me to even tell my mother, or my brother-in-law, or any average person why Blu Ray is so much better, I would be wasting my breath. I'll be buying a Blu Ray player to keep up with the state of the art, but I don't expect the average person to appreciate the extra quality like I do.
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post #93 of 158 Old 04-18-2006, 10:48 AM
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Wait til everyone that walks into a Costco, BB, CC,... sees 1080 film on a big 1080 screen. They may not understand, but they can see.

I figure college students will display movies on their PC monitors. That's what I do on my 19" monitor. It's almost time for me to get a bigger monitor that supports 1920x1080 (16:9 aspect.)

HD-DVD is dead, so now I'm a Gary McCoy fanboy.
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post #94 of 158 Old 04-18-2006, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RADMan2000
Is something not adding up? It seems that, assuming cost of Blu-ray drive component is equal, a PS3 should cost way more to produce than a dedicated Blu-ray player. You got a full-blown microprocessor and various subsystems for I/O that don't exist on the dedicated player. The only way it seems that production costs could be equivalent is if the PS3 is somehow lacking in its Blu-ray implementation, i.e., omissions and inferior components that mean it won't measure up in terms of quality or features with the dedicated player.
That's exactly what most of us are expecting, in fact. Since when has any game system's DVD component been anything but an afterthought?

The First Clarke Law states, 'If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible he is very probably wrong.'
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post #95 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 06:57 AM
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I'm platform agnostic :D.

I bought an HD-DVD player and I plan on getting a Blu-Ray player, but ONLY if the price is $500 or less for the BR player.

I spent $1000 on my first DVD player back in April '97, so spending $500 on an HD player 9 years later is a big improvement.

My concern with BR is that Toshiba threw down the gauntlet with the $500 price point. Ok, the machine has issues, but it also has the ability to get firmware upgrades. If the cheapest BR player is $1000 on 5/23, I'm going to pass....and it's going to hurt because I'd love to see some of those BR films in HD.

My other concern is that people will be waiting for the PS3. If a reasonably priced BR player doesn't come out between now and the PS3 launch, it could be bad news for BR.

Lastly, Sony doesn't have a stellar track record when it comes to proprietary formats (Betamax, Memory Stick, UMD, Mindisc).

In the meantime, I'm putting money aside for May 23, but if there's no $500 player, then I won't buy one.
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post #96 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 08:44 AM
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Problem I see is that most people who are planning to buy the PS3 do not know what Blu-Ray is, if the system comes in over $500, the people that are not in the know(majority most likely), will wonder why they're paying so much money for a gaming system. I also really don't see a good reason why so many hardware companies are staying in the BR camp, pretty much the only device that'll be driving this format will be the PS3, if anything that could sway manufacturers away from the format, this is gonna be a long war.
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post #97 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 09:40 AM
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Click on Blu Ray players...on the left at http://www.newyorkwholesaleaudiovideo.com for proof that BD players are indeed already getting cheaper. ;)
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post #98 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by StarmanTHX
I'm platform agnostic :D.

Lastly, Sony doesn't have a stellar track record when it comes to proprietary formats (Betamax, Memory Stick, UMD, Mindisc).
There are many in the industry (including their competitors) who would disagree strongly with this statement.
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post #99 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Earz
Click on Blu Ray players...on the left at http://www.newyorkwholesaleaudiovideo.com for proof that BD players are indeed already getting cheaper. ;)
Listing the HD-A1 and HD-XA1 under "Blu-Ray Players" doesn't help much in educating the consumer.
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post #100 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 12:31 PM
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If that price holds for the Sony it is only $100 more than the XA1. can't wait to see some head to head reviews.

John McAdams
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post #101 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by CPanther95
Listing the HD-A1 and HD-XA1 under "Blu-Ray Players" doesn't help much in educating the consumer.
No its not very good marketing....but it does lend to the hd dvd being subsidised theory as theres evidently no room to move on the Toshibas ;)
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post #102 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Earz
Click on Blu Ray players...on the left at http://www.newyorkwholesaleaudiovideo.com for proof that BD players are indeed already getting cheaper. ;)
Earz -

Do you know if this is a legitimate retailer or another NYC scam factory?
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post #103 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 01:45 PM
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There are many in the industry (including their competitors) who would disagree strongly with this statement
And they would be utterly wrong. Sony has never by itself produced a single format that has been successful. The ones listed are all abysmal failures, not from a technical standpoint but from market penetration. Betamax was better, not question hands down...but no license = failure.

Industry support? DIVIX had it & it failed due to a phone home resistance (funny w/ TiVo & Microshaft now)

As much as I'd like to see "better tech" win it has little or no bearing on the final outcome.

The "winner" will - be the first to market a player under $200 AND have discs for under $20......get those & you will win no question. Early adopters & loyalists make up an insignificant portion of the market, you can't win with them.

Some points to ponder -

#1 - LaserDisc players got relatively inexpensive (comparable to a high end VCR), discs were $75+ = zero market penatration.
#2 - DVD didn't catch on until the players were under $200 & discs were under $25
#3 - HDTV's are just now starting the make headway in the market mostly due to sets that run $1,500 & under.

Not sure the PS3 will help given hardware architecture - unless they really change it.

It's just my opinion & it's worth exactly what you paid for it.
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post #104 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudy1
There are many in the industry (including their competitors) who would disagree strongly with this statement.
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. I really, REALLY hope so because every format I listed is a failure.
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post #105 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by StarmanTHX
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. I really, REALLY hope so because every format I listed is a failure.
I assume neither of you is involved in the CE industry, and therefore are not aware of certain facts. Above all, please keep in mind that Sony sells to the world....not just to the US. Sony (and its shareholders) do not consider any of those formats "failures". Millions of devices incorporating these proprietary technologies have been sold around the world. And they've provided the inspiration for their competitors to come up with alternatives (many of them much better) of their own.

Sony's corporate mindset revolves around creating products that are, at least in their view, unique and superior to those of other manufacturers. They are arrogant even in their TV commercials: there was one a few years ago for their Trinitron TVs that featured a little boy holding a pinwheel while standing in front of one of the sets. The toy began spinning, much to the amazement of the boy, supposedly because the picture on the TV of a windmill was so realistic you could actually feel a breeze coming off the screen.

Consumer BETA machines were not failures...they simply did not meet American consumer's need for affordability and practicality (VHS was much cheaper and had much longer recording times). The technology behind BETA was originally conceived for broadcast applications, and is still in use around the world. I owned one of the first Walkmans the company produced, as well as many other Sony products over the years. But I will be the first to admit that they've become far too complacent, and quality control has fallen by the wayside. Maybe some day they will realize that arrogance alone does not guarantee success, and that it IS possible that one of their competitors might have a better idea.
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post #106 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by N.B. Forrest
Earz -

Do you know if this is a legitimate retailer or another NYC scam factory?
Are they authorised...not for the Pioneer Elite....not sure anyone can sell those online.....and no I did not check them out, but they were the only place I could find selling all the BD and hd dvd players.
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post #107 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 05:55 PM
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I bought an HD-DVD player and I plan on getting a Blu-Ray player, but ONLY if the price is $500 or less for the BR player.
Like you Starman THX I am doing the same. Once those BD players drop below $500 I'm buying.

Sometimes you reach what's real by making believe.
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post #108 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Rudy1
I assume neither of you is involved in the CE industry, and therefore are not aware of certain facts. Above all, please keep in mind that Sony sells to the world....not just to the US. Sony (and its shareholders) do not consider any of those formats "failures". Millions of devices incorporating these proprietary technologies have been sold around the world. And they've provided the inspiration for their competitors to come up with alternatives (many of them much better) of their own.

Sony's corporate mindset revolves around creating products that are, at least in their view, unique and superior to those of other manufacturers. They are arrogant even in their TV commercials: there was one a few years ago for their Trinitron TVs that featured a little boy holding a pinwheel while standing in front of one of the sets. The toy began spinning, much to the amazement of the boy, supposedly because the picture on the TV of a windmill was so realistic you could actually feel a breeze coming off the screen.

Consumer BETA machines were not failures...they simply did not meet American consumer's need for affordability and practicality (VHS was much cheaper and had much longer recording times). The technology behind BETA was originally conceived for broadcast applications, and is still in use around the world. I owned one of the first Walkmans the company produced, as well as many other Sony products over the years. But I will be the first to admit that they've become far too complacent, and quality control has fallen by the wayside. Maybe some day they will realize that arrogance alone does not guarantee success, and that it IS possible that one of their competitors might have a better idea.
OK - so the listed formats are only failures in the non-Asian Market. Last time I checked 98% of us in here aren't posting from Asia.

If Sony doesn't have a $400 player by Christmas, BluRay is in a lot of trouble.

And by the way, I'm rooting for them to do it.

I hate all this downtime in between drafts...(unidentified Lions loyalist '2004)
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post #109 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 07:48 PM
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And by the way, I'm rooting for them to do it.
Me too, but I highly doubt that will happen.

Sometimes you reach what's real by making believe.
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post #110 of 158 Old 04-19-2006, 09:34 PM
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Pfft. I'd be happy with a $500 player. At least with that price point I can enjoy it for 2-3 years, even if one format or the other goes belly-up.

Hell, my $1000 DVL-700 from '97 still works and is still in my rack. I don't use it much, but that's another story.. :D
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post #111 of 158 Old 04-20-2006, 05:09 AM
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Don't forget that gamers will buy the PS3 without any consideration of playing BD movies or High Def anything. The shear number of PS3 units sold will immediately give the Blu-ray format a market to sell movies. Even if its totally an after thought, a gamer might say, "Hey, I think I'll buy this movie on BD to play on my PS3. Cool." Even if half the people who buy a PS3 buy even just ONE disc, that will BLOW AWAY the number of HD DVD sales. Its so far mismatched that its almost silly. If you add even a small amount of stand alone BD players on top of that, it further tips the balance.

The BD movement won't need a $500 player this year or even next year. Pretty much all of the people who are only willing to spend $500 or less will go with HD DVD. That point has been made here numerous times and that's fine. Its also true that an early adapter is typically willing to spend whatever it takes to jump into a new technology. Price is not the major influencer for them. A good number of those guys will buy both formats, just because they can.

So, when it all comes down to it, there are many forum members that simply can't afford to play in this hobby like they would like to(myself included). The thought of a $1000 anything is just out of the question. Its not even a possibility. A $500 something is a stretch, but if the benefit is significant, it can be justified. At this point, that means either HD DVD or PS3. With the track record of the PS2's dvd player, most of those people will run towards HD DVD, but then again, with Toshibas track record of DVD players, many will just run Forest run. Me? I'm just sticking with the PS3 and eat my box of chocolates.

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post #112 of 158 Old 04-20-2006, 06:07 AM
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If that price holds for the Sony it is only $100 more than the XA1. can't wait to see some head to head reviews.
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post #113 of 158 Old 04-20-2006, 08:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrPorterhouse
Don't forget that gamers will buy the PS3 without any consideration of playing BD movies or High Def anything. The shear number of PS3 units sold will immediately give the Blu-ray format a market to sell movies. Even if its totally an after thought, a gamer might say, "Hey, I think I'll buy this movie on BD to play on my PS3. Cool." Even if half the people who buy a PS3 buy even just ONE disc, that will BLOW AWAY the number of HD DVD sales. Its so far mismatched that its almost silly. If you add even a small amount of stand alone BD players on top of that, it further tips the balance.

The BD movement won't need a $500 player this year or even next year. Pretty much all of the people who are only willing to spend $500 or less will go with HD DVD. That point has been made here numerous times and that's fine. Its also true that an early adapter is typically willing to spend whatever it takes to jump into a new technology. Price is not the major influencer for them. A good number of those guys will buy both formats, just because they can.

So, when it all comes down to it, there are many forum members that simply can't afford to play in this hobby like they would like to(myself included). The thought of a $1000 anything is just out of the question. Its not even a possibility. A $500 something is a stretch, but if the benefit is significant, it can be justified. At this point, that means either HD DVD or PS3. With the track record of the PS2's dvd player, most of those people will run towards HD DVD, but then again, with Toshibas track record of DVD players, many will just run Forest run. Me? I'm just sticking with the PS3 and eat my box of chocolates.
I guess the key here is the price of the PS3, which to me still doesn't quite add up, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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post #114 of 158 Old 04-20-2006, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Hoof
If that price holds for the Sony it is only $100 more than the XA1. can't wait to see some head to head reviews.
Keep in mind, now that the Toshiba's are out forum members have discovered the differences between the two model's is minor and mostly cosmetic. The video performance of the XA1 and A1 seems to be the same. The XA1 looks to be just a marketing ploy to give the boutique home theater retailers something different to sell than the mass market A1.

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post #115 of 158 Old 04-20-2006, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Hoof
If that price holds for the Sony it is only $100 more than the XA1. can't wait to see some head to head reviews.
Keep in mind, now that the Toshiba's are out forum members have discovered that the differences between the two model's are minor and mostly cosmetic. The video performance of the XA1 and A1 seems to be the same. The XA1 looks to be just a marketing ploy to give the boutique home theater retailers something different (with a higher margin) to sell than the mass market A1.

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post #116 of 158 Old 04-21-2006, 01:52 AM
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I bought the Sony DVP-S7000 for $889 back when DVD was the new thing. The player was built like a tank and still works. However, I'm not going to be an early adapter again. The 7000 was outdated rather quickly when DTS came along and price drops followed too. I'm not spending top dollar for 1st gen equipment. I'm pretty sure that a similar issue to DTS exists with HDMI 1.3 and 7.1 sound. Is this correct?

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post #117 of 158 Old 04-21-2006, 11:54 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Tinman
but who is going to go to the big box stores and drop that kind of cash? Besides the lucky few with too much money to begin with?
Too much money to begin with? What do you mean by that?

There are many, many, many people who aren't millionaires but who went to school for advanced degrees or are successful in business who can easily afford what seems to be offending you.
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post #118 of 158 Old 04-21-2006, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by MrPorterhouse
Don't forget that gamers will buy the PS3 without any consideration of playing BD movies or High Def anything. The shear number of PS3 units sold will immediately give the Blu-ray format a market to sell movies. Even if its totally an after thought, a gamer might say, "Hey, I think I'll buy this movie on BD to play on my PS3. Cool." Even if half the people who buy a PS3 buy even just ONE disc, that will BLOW AWAY the number of HD DVD sales. Its so far mismatched that its almost silly. If you add even a small amount of stand alone BD players on top of that, it further tips the balance.

The BD movement won't need a $500 player this year or even next year. Pretty much all of the people who are only willing to spend $500 or less will go with HD DVD. That point has been made here numerous times and that's fine. Its also true that an early adapter is typically willing to spend whatever it takes to jump into a new technology. Price is not the major influencer for them. A good number of those guys will buy both formats, just because they can.

So, when it all comes down to it, there are many forum members that simply can't afford to play in this hobby like they would like to(myself included). The thought of a $1000 anything is just out of the question. Its not even a possibility. A $500 something is a stretch, but if the benefit is significant, it can be justified. At this point, that means either HD DVD or PS3. With the track record of the PS2's dvd player, most of those people will run towards HD DVD, but then again, with Toshibas track record of DVD players, many will just run Forest run. Me? I'm just sticking with the PS3 and eat my box of chocolates.

Sony thought the same thing about UMD.
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post #119 of 158 Old 04-21-2006, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2
Just for the sake of discussion let's say that the Samsung BluRay player is costing them about $600 each and the PS3 will cost Sony $650 each out of the gate. I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Samsung player to have an MSRP of $999 out of the gate and the PS3 to have an MSRP of $500 out of the gate. They are different paradigms with Samsung trying to make their money back with profit from the player and Sony just wanting PS3s out there to enable sales and royalties for games, movies, and whatever else they can think of.

I'm pretty surprised that people will be able to get into at least part of next gen disks from day one for about $450 plus $18 a month for a Netflix account. I wouldn't have predicted that 6 months ago. I think the PS3 will most likely be about $499 in the US, so for under $1k plus a Netflix account people could get both formats (just have to wait for the PS3) if that price is around $549 or less.

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You said that Samsung and Sony cost is $600.00. Is that with profit or without? Does that mean they are going to give them away? @ $999.00 if a retailer operates on a 30% margin, that would put there cost @ $635.31 per unit. That means Sony and Samsung are making around $35.31 per unit. That absolutly makes no sense. I have offened wondered what the margin is on this stuff anyway. But somehow I don't think that Samsung and Sony are going to sell these units on an 5.9% margin.
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post #120 of 158 Old 04-21-2006, 01:28 PM
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Interesting discussion,

I have some thoughts to add :) . In my opinoun, those that have wisely suggested that the format war will be decided on price AND content are correct (joe public has abolutely no palete for determining the better format on tech features for this fight). BR seems to be winning on the content side but only by a little bit (debateble admittedly). And frankly from what is known HD-DVD seems to be wining the price war and has a first out the gate advantage.

Right now its too close to call however if BR continues to be priced twice as much then HD will win.

The PS3 is a big deal. As has been suggested the PS3 will be a huge factor. It will drive sales for sure. Combine this with the content advantage and consider that it may nullify HDs price advantage it would seem like the fight might be over on this factor alone.

However that thinking is completely discounting Microsofts hand in this fight. It's being rumored that the 360 could see an addon HD-DVD drive as early as September and for around a 100$ price point. That could if ture and if marketed correctly switch the entire dynamics of this situation. You now are getting 360/hd-DVD players for 400-500$. This gives HD-DVD the same total entertainment package advantage that the PS3 was providing (game plus HD player).

Also consider that shortages this christmas will pretty much insure that anyone looking to get a PS3 as only a BR player will be muscled out by fanatical game heads. There simply will not be enough to go around. And if that is contrasted agianst thier being shelves full of 360s with a possible HD-DVD drive add-on, it may actually work to be a big disadvantage to BR. The people that were waiting for the PS3 to adopt BR and can't find one might be frustrated enough to jump ship.

The war between BR and HD was complicated enough, if you mix it with the war between the consoles then this christmas will mark one of the coolest technology format wars we have ever seen. The whole thing will be fascinating to watch!!

Ves
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