So why can't Sony make a standalone for $500 or less? - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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Blu-ray Players > So why can't Sony make a standalone for $500 or less?
IndifferentBozo's Avatar IndifferentBozo 12:20 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by strawberry
Sony is able to sell the PS3 for $500 and eat the difference because they'll get it back from highly marked up peripherals, (extra controllers, HDD upgrades, etc.) premium online membership fees and content purchases, and, of course, software sales.

Those advantages don't just don't exist on the standard, set-top player market. Sony would be throwing money away for no other reason than market share by selling stand-alone players for $500.
Market share would seem to be important at this point in the format war. And it would be relatively cheap to make the inventment. Much cheaper then losing the format war would be. One or the other of these players will be in everyones house in a few years.

Also, does anyone get paid licensing fees when someone uses Blue ray technology/sells a Blue Ray disc? I would have guessed the format was "owned" by Sony, but I don't know.

(edit: according to CNET, Sony and a few others will make royalties on BR)

"...Sony, Philips and some of the others that contributed intellectual property to the Blu-ray standard stand to earn millions in licensing fees and the same is true for the HD DVD camp."

http://news.com.com/Sonys+Blu-ray+no...3-6082914.html

IndifferentBozo's Avatar IndifferentBozo 12:27 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
It really doesn't matter how many PS3's are sold in the next year as far as BR movie support goes. What matters is how many HD tv's are being used for the PS3. Why buy or rent a HD movie if it's being played on a SD tv.

People that buy standalone players do so because they already own a HD set. People that will buy the PS3 do so to play games on whatever set they own at the time.

Why is this always dismissed as unimportant. To me it's has everything to do with the success of the PS# as a movie player.
The Microsoft folks claim that a pretty high percentage of 360 purchasers have a HD TV, I don't recall the number, but I think it was well more than half. It should be roughly the same for the PS3.
WriteSimple's Avatar WriteSimple 12:33 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
It really doesn't matter how many PS3's are sold in the next year as far as BR movie support goes. What matters is how many HD tv's are being used for the PS3. Why buy or rent a HD movie if it's being played on a SD tv.

People that buy standalone players do so because they already own a HD set. People that will buy the PS3 do so to play games on whatever set they own at the time.

Why is this always dismissed as unimportant. To me it's has everything to do with the success of the PS# as a movie player.
Well yes and no. Like I posted in another thread, (the statistics were not mine but claimed by another) if 2 million (50%) of XBox 360 owners already have HDTV, then a percentage of that will be gamers that will get a PS3. That is an automatic game console plus BD player for these owners; whether they rent or buy BD movies that's up to them. A percentage of the 2 million may also buy the add-on but I would not hasten to guess what that percentage that will be.

People also forget that you don't have to have a US$1000 HDTV to play PS3/XBox 360 with. There are plenty of widescreen LCD monitors right now with DVI input, some with HDCP already. 22" and below will get you 720p playback while 24" and above will get you higher than 1080p. I guess college students would use these monitors more and save space.


fuad
b.greenway's Avatar b.greenway 12:34 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by WriteSimple
The game plan is different between NAmerica and Japan. We'll forget about Europe for a while until March 2007.
fuad
So will Sony.
Chris Beveridge's Avatar Chris Beveridge 12:41 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
It really doesn't matter how many PS3's are sold in the next year as far as BR movie support goes. What matters is how many HD tv's are being used for the PS3. Why buy or rent a HD movie if it's being played on a SD tv.
Because you still get better quality video? Better interactivity with menus, features that may eventually be available only there?

A lot of shows on DVD are having trouble looking good because of the bitrate limitation. Throw that off and they'll look far better on any set. It won't be HD on a non HD set but there will still be an improvement in playback. Hell, the most comments I get when showing people things is how cool the menus are and that they load up during the movie. That gets more attention during my dual format demos than anything else.
strawberry's Avatar strawberry 12:46 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndifferentBozo
Market share would seem to be important at this point in the format war. And it would be relatively cheap to make the inventment. Much cheaper then losing the format war would be. One or the other of these players will be in everyones house in a few years.
The PS3 is a BR player. They're going to get plenty of market share with its release. There's little incentive to lose a bunch more money trying to gain a little bit more market share with stand-alone players as well- certainly not this early in the game, anyway. The type of consumer that buys premium A/V equipment will happily buy the stand-alone player, the price conscious person who is looking for more value will buy the PS3. All bases covered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IndifferentBozo
(edit: according to CNET, Sony and a few others will make royalties on BR)

"...Sony, Philips and some of the others that contributed intellectual property to the Blu-ray standard stand to earn millions in licensing fees and the same is true for the HD DVD camp."

http://news.com.com/Sonys+Blu-ray+no...3-6082914.html
The royalties made from BR disc sales will pale in comparison to what Sony will make on PS3 software and peripheral sales. Not even a remotely close race- not even worth discussing.
Mr. Hanky's Avatar Mr. Hanky 01:06 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
It really doesn't matter how many PS3's are sold in the next year as far as BR movie support goes. What matters is how many HD tv's are being used for the PS3. Why buy or rent a HD movie if it's being played on a SD tv.
You would be silly to assume potential PS3 owners and hdtv owners are mutually exclusive. They are essentially the same customer base. A great number of people who have owned playstation consoles are no longer "kids". They have expendible cash. They like electronics. Having an hdtv is simply a no-brainer. As time marches forward, it only becomes more so.

Potentially, there can be visual benefits for sdtv users, as well. Not the full benefit, but possibly some. Hence, they may start to buy BR movies, not only because they have some pq benefit up front, but to get a headstart on building an hd movie collection for when they DO have an hdtv. It's nearly inevitable. If they never buy an hdtv, there wasn't any money to be made off them, anyway- that will be a minority, as well, so the point is moot.
Smooth317's Avatar Smooth317 01:51 PM 09-25-2006
I disagree with the average joe assumptions. It seems pretty simple. HD-DVD players are half as expensive and have more titles available. Until BR catches up in BOTH of these areas (price and titles), HD-DVD is a no brainer to the average Joe who, in my opinion, doesn't go researching what titles will come out when and whether they're VC-1 or MPEG-2. We have an idea of when BR will catch up in total titles available, but absolutely no clue when they'll be able to compete with their pricing. The longer it takes them, the less likely they are to put HD-DVD to bed.

Again, the answer seems pretty simple for BR. Rush out as many titles as possible in VC-1, subsidize player cost as Toshiba is doing (which is essentially what they're doing with the PS3) and there's absolutely no reason left for HD-DVD to exist with the exception of Universal who would grudgingly follow suit if they were left with no other option.
Chris Beveridge's Avatar Chris Beveridge 02:15 PM 09-25-2006
How many "average" consumers are going to spend $500? Especially when if they look around at what's being marketed at them, they can get an HD DVD player for around $50?

As hard a sell as the $1000 BD units are going to be, it's going to be even harder in the mainstream market with an "upgrade" product using the same name.

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?cl...-8&sa=N&tab=wf

Just doing a froogle search for HD DVD player and look at the results. Play around with them as if you were someone who doesn't know there's a difference between the Toshiba HD DVD player and the $50 Samsung HD DVD player.
IndifferentBozo's Avatar IndifferentBozo 02:26 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by strawberry
The PS3 is a BR player. They're going to get plenty of market share with its release. There's little incentive to lose a bunch more money trying to gain a little bit more market share with stand-alone players as well- certainly not this early in the game, anyway. The type of consumer that buys premium A/V equipment will happily buy the stand-alone player, the price conscious person who is looking for more value will buy the PS3. All bases covered.
No doubt the PS3 will sell out for the foreseeable future (barring technical problems), but how many of them will be used (in a significant way) for BR-DVD playback is unknown. Certainly, it is primarily designed for gaming. At $300 a PS3, assuming 2 million sold this year, thats over half a billion dollars of subsidy. For a subsidized BR DVD player (which should be cheaper then the PS3, you would think, even takign into account economies of scale) say its $150 subsidy for 100-200,000 players this year, thats just $15-30 million to support the format, not much at all. This assumes a subsidy is even needed to get a BR player to $500ish retail.

I believe BR needs a cheap(er) standalone player on the market by Christmas. Folks looking to watch a nice HD movie on their new 1080p TV aren't going to find a PS3 to buy (even if they wanted to), so they are deciding between a $500 Toshiba HD-DVD and a bunch of other $1000+ players.

Quote:
The royalties made from BR disc sales will pale in comparison to what Sony will make on PS3 software and peripheral sales. Not even a remotely close race- not even worth discussing.
Could be. I don't know what the royalty rate is for BR is on the DVD side or the royalty on the games, but a subsidy for the standalone player is likely to be small as well. Sony's goal has to be making BR discs and players ubiquitous, not saving $30 million. They could win in the Game arena and not win in the high definition DVD arena.

I still think someone bites the bullet and announces a $500 BR player by November.
miamiguy's Avatar miamiguy 03:48 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSpeed6
Whats up with all the HDdvd fan boys in the blueray section??
... why? is this a Blu-ray fan boys area only or do we now need a separate membership to be here? :)
strawberry's Avatar strawberry 03:52 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndifferentBozo
No doubt the PS3 will sell out for the foreseeable future (barring technical problems), but how many of them will be used (in a significant way) for BR-DVD playback is unknown. Certainly, it is primarily designed for gaming. At $300 a PS3, assuming 2 million sold this year, thats over half a billion dollars of subsidy. For a subsidized BR DVD player (which should be cheaper then the PS3, you would think, even takign into account economies of scale) say its $150 subsidy for 100-200,000 players this year, thats just $15-30 million to support the format, not much at all. This assumes a subsidy is even needed to get a BR player to $500ish retail.

I believe BR needs a cheap(er) standalone player on the market by Christmas. Folks looking to watch a nice HD movie on their new 1080p TV aren't going to find a PS3 to buy (even if they wanted to), so they are deciding between a $500 Toshiba HD-DVD and a bunch of other $1000+ players.
Throw the PS3 out of the equation for a moment, since we can't really predict how many PS3 owners will use it for movies just yet. Now, let's look at the raw numbers. Toshiba just announced to the press last week that they've sold 20,000 HD DVD players. The most optimistic figure is that maybe they could double that by Christmas- but let's say for the sake of argument that they sell 50,000 by year's end. BR figures to sell even less, of course, but my main point is this- these things just aren't selling in any kind of volume yet, and it's going to be another couple of years before they really can. Fewer than 20 million homes in the U.S. even have HD displays in them right now. Nobody is going to be pulling ahead far enough in raw numbers over the course of the next year for market share to matter. One side might have 75%, but what difference will it make if we're talking about fewer than one or two hundred thousand players sold at that point?

It makes no sense whatsoever for Sony or any other BR manufacturer to sell at a loss right now- there is a lot of money to lose and very little to gain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IndifferentBozo
Could be. I don't know what the royalty rate is for BR is on the DVD side or the royalty on the games, but a subsidy for the standalone player is likely to be small as well. Sony's goal has to be making BR discs and players ubiquitous, not saving $30 million. They could win in the Game arena and not win in the high definition DVD arena.

I still think someone bites the bullet and announces a $500 BR player by November.
The gaming industry has been a bigger money maker than the movie industry for almost a decade now- and the gap is continually widening. I don't know how else to put it- Sony makes a lot more money when a $60 Playstation game is sold, or when a $30 PS Controller (which is marked up several hundred percent) is sold, than they do when a $25 BD Rom sells.

Someone has bitten the bullet- it's Sony, and it's the PS3. That's it.
Rob Zuber's Avatar Rob Zuber 04:10 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magnolia039
The $1000 machine is a 1080P machine.
Are you suggesting that that one feature accounts for a $500 difference? My question was in response to a poster who said, "...the BR tech costs much more right now...". Why, then, is Toshiba announcing a player for $1000? Isn't more reasonable to conclude that the $500 dollar player is subsidized?
MSpeed6's Avatar MSpeed6 04:19 PM 09-25-2006
if apple can sell millions of junk video ipods for 400bux a pop, no reason why ps3 won't do the same.
Mr. Hanky's Avatar Mr. Hanky 05:03 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by miamiguy
... why? is this a Blu-ray fan boys area only or do we now need a separate membership to be here? :)
You didn't read the header of this forum, did you? If you are here to cause trouble on the format you intend to bash, then you do not belong here. It's in the rules.
chinch's Avatar chinch 05:47 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSpeed6
if apple can sell millions of junk video ipods for 400bux a pop, no reason why ps3 won't do the same.
bad analogy.

first the nano is $199-ish and shuffle $99 or less.. best sellers.

second iPods are purchased often for adults who work with well paying jobs... usable in the gym, travel, commuting, lunch break and used in parallel use (ipods are used while doing other things).

PS3 you're basically locked inside with a HDTV and need alot of free time (ie. shool kids or older enthusiast). totally different demographic.

either way someone needs to pull the trigger on a $425-499 stand alone Bluray player and take the cash hit on 30-50k units just for publicity/marketing reasons (which would be less than what Sony is taking on the PS3 without a doubt).
MSpeed6's Avatar MSpeed6 06:09 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinch
bad analogy.

first the nano is $199-ish and shuffle $99 or less.. best sellers.

second iPods are purchased often for adults who work with well paying jobs... usable in the gym, travel, commuting, lunch break and used in parallel use (ipods are used while doing other things).

PS3 you're basically locked inside with a HDTV and need alot of free time (ie. shool kids or older enthusiast). totally different demographic.

either way someone needs to pull the trigger on a $425-499 stand alone Bluray player and take the cash hit on 30-50k units just for publicity/marketing reasons (which would be less than what Sony is taking on the PS3 without a doubt).

then in your theory, the UMD movies should have been more popular then dvds.
wildchild22's Avatar wildchild22 06:15 PM 09-25-2006
Sony better make a better loader then they did with the PS2. I would be weary of using the ps3 for a lot of movie playing as the ps2 didnt last long playing just games . Very poor quality loaders same as cheap dvd player loaders!
tormond's Avatar tormond 06:31 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Beveridge
Because you still get better quality video? Better interactivity with menus, features that may eventually be available only there?

A lot of shows on DVD are having trouble looking good because of the bitrate limitation. Throw that off and they'll look far better on any set. It won't be HD on a non HD set but there will still be an improvement in playback. Hell, the most comments I get when showing people things is how cool the menus are and that they load up during the movie. That gets more attention during my dual format demos than anything else.

Will it look better even hooked up via composite video? There are some but I figure not a ton of non HD TVs will have component either. Can you even play HD Discs over composite? I am scared to try :)
Maltby's Avatar Maltby 07:19 PM 09-25-2006
Why can't Sony get "their" overdue $1000 standalone player out the door? What's the point of talking about a $500 player if they can't do that.

What I can't understand from the BR camp is this-if you really have the world by a string, swinging on your finger, why all the secrecy. If you got it show it. Bring it like you were the Bland. Respond directly to the criticisms, explain the situation, tell us what to expect from this point on, and then meet our expectations.
Rob Zuber's Avatar Rob Zuber 07:23 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maltby
Why can't Sony get "their" overdue $1000 standalone player out the door? What's the point of talking about a $500 player if they can't do that.

What I can't understand from the BR camp is this-if you really have the world by a string, swinging on your finger, why all the secrecy.
The "evolutionary" HD-DVD side suffered from long delays. It's actually more understandable for the BD side. I don't get what a few months has to do with a format war that will affect the next 5 - 15 years. It's not rational.
chinch's Avatar chinch 07:28 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSpeed6
then in your theory, the UMD movies should have been more popular then dvds.
um..... nope.
miamiguy's Avatar miamiguy 07:37 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Hanky
You didn't read the header of this forum, did you? If you are here to cause trouble on the format you intend to bash, then you do not belong here. It's in the rules.
Sure did read the rules and stuck to them. But since you are directing your anger towards me, number one I own the Samsung BR, number two I did not bash anything, and number three you don't decide for me if I belong here or not. You don't own this forum. Hope you get that clear.
Mr. Hanky's Avatar Mr. Hanky 07:39 PM 09-25-2006
You asked. I never made a decision about you. Cut the attitude.
gooki's Avatar gooki 07:42 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
I don't get what a few months has to do with a format war that will affect the next 5 - 15 years. It's not rational.
Because we're comming upto first christmas of the format "war", which is often regarded as the time large CE purchases are made. If one format doesn't get players out before Christmas, that woudl allow the competetion to get a strong foothold on the industry making it very hard for the other to penetrate.
miamiguy's Avatar miamiguy 07:45 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Hanky
You asked. I never made a decision about you. Cut the attitude.
I am not the one with the angry response. And again, you don't tell me what to do. Thank you very much. :)
Rob Zuber's Avatar Rob Zuber 07:47 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki
Because we're comming upto first christmas of the format "war", which is often regarded as the time large CE purchases are made. If one format doesn't get players out before Christmas, that woudl allow the competetion to get a strong foothold on the industry making it very hard for the other to penetrate.
It's too early to worry about that. Wake me up when the players start selling for $150. The low sales volumes being talked about this year (not including the much higher volume PS3) won't in any way "make it very hard" for the other to penetrate. That's just silly.
MSpeed6's Avatar MSpeed6 07:49 PM 09-25-2006
i dont know why you guys get worked up over formats. If you like one, buy it. If not don't. Don't see what the fuss is about. You get a powerful videogame system, bluetooth connection, wifi, 60gig harddrive and blue ray movie player for 600. I for one think its a bargain and going to buy it and many others think so also. If blue ray or games isn't important to you, there is always a upconverting dvd player.
wreckshop's Avatar wreckshop 09:33 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
“BTW the matrix dvd and ps2 sold 1:1 in japan at launch.â€

What does this have to do with the millions upon millions of people who’ve viewed ‘The Matrix’ and don’t own a PS2?
his point is that a significant number of gamers have purchased movies presumably to watch on their console. what point are you trying to make? that people who arent gamers watch movies too? DUH
IndifferentBozo's Avatar IndifferentBozo 10:45 PM 09-25-2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by strawberry
The gaming industry has been a bigger money maker than the movie industry for almost a decade now- and the gap is continually widening. I don't know how else to put it- Sony makes a lot more money when a $60 Playstation game is sold, or when a $30 PS Controller (which is marked up several hundred percent) is sold, than they do when a $25 BD Rom sells.

Someone has bitten the bullet- it's Sony, and it's the PS3. That's it.
I assume Sony wants to dominate both the HD game and HD DVD market with PS3 and Blue-ray. My point is that losing ground in the DVD game due to the lack of a $500ish standalone player may not be made up by PS3's being used to play Blue ray. That's it. You feel the PS3 fills the gap. Could be. I still think someone announces a lower cost player by the end of November to counter the cheap Toshiba.

As for the power of the game business to generate profits -

Quote:
Despite the rosy bottom line, Sony's game division caused massive damage to the company's overall profit. Sony Computer Entertainment [sales?] dropped from 172.8 billion yen ($1.5 billion) to 122.5 billion yen ($1.1 billion). The group's operating loss sunk to 26.8 billion yen ($2.32 billion) from last year's loss of only 5.9 billion yen ($51.1 million).
from IGN - http://psp.ign.com/articles/721/721539p1.html
(much of the loss is due to the ramp up for the PS3)
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