DVD Wars/Amazon - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tkmedia2
I've bought plenty of disc, but I dont count as I never bought a HD DVD or Blu-ray disc at Amazon!:)
Me too. Bought several. Never shopped at Amazon. I also rent three at a time from Netflix.

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post #92 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyoniner
Nice steady increase for Blu-ray the past three weeks. If the trend continues it should overtake HD-DVD in about two months which sounds about right.
Ok, I bet you it wont. Just for bragging rights.

Let's check back on Jan 22nd.
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post #93 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:26 AM
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The truth is neither Sony nor Toshiba care if they win the format war. All they care about is getting you to buy the same movie multiple times. If you put the pieces together you'll see I'm absolutely correct!
You're half right. They do want you to rebuy as many times as possible

As for the not caring part, if they didn't care there wouldn't be a format war to begin with. Each side has invested tens, if not hundreds of millions in their respective formats, so of course they want that investment to pay off.
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post #94 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
Hmmm, speaking of the Amazon stats, time for a quick update on how the "PS3 Bluray Planetary Takeover" is going over the last 8 days:

http://www.thedvdwars.com/top10000-DVD-recent.swf

Nope, no reversal of the HD DVD lead there...

Perhaps in a few more days...
Well at least give the new PS3 owner enough time to at least unpack the thing and enjoy the included Blu-Ray title.
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post #95 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland
The numbers mean nothing....HD DVD has no new releases or new players.....Forget software sales, no one can buy a new player today or for the holidays (short of a discontinued A1/XA1) and there is only a selction of old has-been titles... no new releases worth anything in the foreseeable future.
I'm all for healthy dabate and little bit of banter, but such one sided comments from yourself and others, predomitably in the Blu-Ray camp, does the format no help.

To be honest you come across as desperate.

I'm struggling to keep up with the new HD-DVD releases in the next week or two.
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post #96 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tolstoi
Well at least give the new PS3 owner enough time to at least unpack the thing and enjoy the included Blu-Ray title.
Not to mention the 4 or 5 games that have been played non stop.
The only reason my friend's BD went in was so I could see the trailer, then it was back to playing games.
You gotta get the initial month long gaming itch out of your system before you start utilizing the PS3 for the other things it can do, after all we've waited long enough for it.
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post #97 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomsHT
Wow nic, why are you so worried about this site and its stats?

Amazon does not sell strictly to compete against bluray. Amazon produces sales rankings on all items that it sells. thedvdwars site only points and shows what those rankings are as it matters to the format wars.

HD DVD owners have pointed to it in the pass as some to make a comparison by but even HD DVD owners have expected to see those stats change now with the release of the PS3

And no-one is saying that sales alone at amazon is the final totals of all things sold. But Amazon is one of the largest on-line retailers and so far have reflected closely comparisons made by professinal companies.
These Amazon rankings must have some relevance to real world sales as Blu-Ray showed a massive increases in ranking for a couple days after the PS3 launched (1000+ points), since then it has slowly dropped back down to pre PS3 rankings.

I, and I expect most Blu-Ray owners, probably expected the Amazon rankings to maintain this upward trend.
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post #98 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by riekl
The HD-DVD addon is the #37 top seller at amazon, theres thousands of new hd-dvd players being sold every day for the sole purpose of playing movies. Whereas only a fraction of PS3 sales is for this purpose.

The bottom line is HD-DVD movies continue to dramatically outsell BR movies.
European HD-DVD owners will also be buying US discs.
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post #99 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
Hmmm, speaking of the Amazon stats, time for a quick update on how the "PS3 Bluray Planetary Takeover" is going over the last 8 days:

http://www.thedvdwars.com/top10000-DVD-recent.swf

Nope, no reversal of the HD DVD lead there...

Perhaps in a few more days...
Well, applying a bit of first-year statistical analysis to this graph, there are a few things that should perhaps disturb you:

At the start of the graph, the lead on this chart appears to be approximately 98 HD-DVD to 27 Blu-Ray. At the end of the graph, the lead is HD-DVD 97 to Blu-ray 39 (I am estimating numbers from the graph). That's an erosion of their lead from 71 to 58 over one week, a loss (for HD-DVD) of 13. If you extrapolate that out it would take only another 4.6 weeks.

Is that fair? No, definitely not. I would not predict this graph to converge in 4 and a half weeks. But neither can anyone with a cursory knowledge of statistics ignore the trend lines on these graphs completely.

Taking just the start and end dates is likewise not a fair way to compute a trend line and a more rigorous site would try to plot a moving average line or something to help the viewer (someone write the web code to do it, its not hard!). But I'm pretty confident from eyeballing the graph that even a 1-week moving average would show a trend toward convergence.

There's no guaranteeing that a trend shown here will continue, of course. It could stop, or could reverse. Who knows. That's what makes it fun!
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post #100 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 12:14 PM
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The start of the graph(discs available today)on 6/18 was 30 to 6 when BD started. Now it's 110 HD DVD to 84 BD on 11/22. No estimates, when you place your cursor on the garph it shows you the date and the amount.
Innerloop, where did you get your numbers from? They seem way off.

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post #101 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 02:41 PM
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The "Number of DVDs with Sales Rank better than 10000:" is the graph with the most data points and it is not log scaled. If you look there HD DVD currently has 97 titles which are showing significant Amazon activity, and Blu-ray has 39. For the most part, based on book authors calculations, 10,000 is the number that shows weekly sales activity. When Blu-ray starts showing significant activity on that report, it will be reaching critical mass. The fact that HD DVD has already started showing a significant upward trend indicates that HD DVD has already reached a critical mass or positive tipping point.

The "Number of DVDs with Sales Rank better than 1000:" also has a number of data points and is linear not log. Blu-ray is showing a significant uptick here in the last week.

The "Average Sales Rank of Top 10 DVDs" chart is also positive for Blu-ray in the last week but since the ranking difference between a top 100 or top 500 or top 2000 seller are almost in a log scale, a rise to an average of currently 2691 is far far below an average 2000 positions above it.

These are general indicators of trends.

What those charts indicate is HD DVD has been outselling Blu-ray by a large margin, sales of HD DVD are increasing, sales of Blu-ray discs are increasing at a faster rate in the last month but still are far below those of HD DVD.

Seems pretty consistent with the other data we have.

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post #102 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 03:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nic17
I own the Phillips blu-ray player, but I also owned the HD-D1 and returned it only for player issues. I plan on purchasing the A2 as long as player issues are solved. I do favor Blu-Ray because I think its more tech advanced. For the life of me, I can't understand why every HD-DVD extremist says look at Amazon.com ratings and HD-DVD is outselling Blu-Ray 10:1. Do you honestly believe that? If you have not already noticed Microsoft and Amazon are in business together and have a vested interest.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050101447.html

A couple of months ago a SVP of 19 years left Microsoft to join Amazon.com, so its obvious they have a working relationship
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...crosoft06.html

Here is the other famous check out the dvd wars... fought own amazon.
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

So I guess my question is with the obvious relationship and vested interest between Microsoft and Amazon how in the world can you use Amazon as your reference for HD-DVD sales? I mean seriously , you might fool some noobs around here but do you think thats going to fly with the Studios? If it has not already been brought to their attention I am sure it will be pointed out were the numbers are coming from. I am posting this in the Blu-Ray section because I don't want to be accused of trolling. I would like some civil feedback from both sides.

According to my local Best Buy manager HD DVD is outselling Blu-Ray as of yesterday by over 4 to 1.
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post #103 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by yoyoniner
No it's because Toshiba is the only standalone game in town and not even making HD-DVD players at the moment! How unbelievable is that. And this comes during the 4th quarter sales season!

With no standalone players in stores other than a game machine + $200 add-on and basically no major new titles for the next two months by the looks of the release list, HD-DVD is doomed. This is all coming at the WORST time too--the Christmas buying season. I knew the pathetic studio and basically non-existant manufacturer support would bite me in the ass eventually!


As usual you are sadly misinformed. There are a number of HD DVD movie releases planned during the next few weeks.
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post #104 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Mike C
Well us HD-DVD fans bitch and moan because we get no love from CC or BB. I am sure that if CC and BB gave equal support to both formats that it would benefit HD-DVD even more!

I was in CC in Oxnard, CA last weekend and noticed they had over TWICE as many HD DVD titles as Blu-Ray.
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post #105 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 09:00 PM
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Sad thing is I can go into an B&M store and pick up a BD player but not a HD player.

Could it be because HD players are selling and BD players aren't?
No. The reason is that for BD you have several manufacturers happily building and shipping players making some money on them. While for HD DVD you have one manufacturer trying to make sure they don’t lose too much money, that ran out of parts for the original models and that hasn’t been able to get the newer models to work properly.
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post #106 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronwt
The start of the graph(discs available today)on 6/18 was 30 to 6 when BD started. Now it's 110 HD DVD to 84 BD on 11/22. No estimates, when you place your cursor on the garph it shows you the date and the amount.
Innerloop, where did you get your numbers from? They seem way off.
I was referring to the graph link that I quoted in the post. The 7-day average of 10k+ ranked titles.
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post #107 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 09:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nic17
I am presenting facts backed up with links.
The only "facts" you backed up was the a SVP went to work with Amazon. Companies doing business with other companies? Surely you jest! This mustn't be the norm!! :rolleyes:


Who cares what sales figures Amazon.com has. Its only 1 retailer in the whole scheme of things and the war is just starting. Worry not and sleep well. Your seemingly important battle is not lost yet.


In the mean time. Take off the tinfoil hat man :p

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post #108 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:08 PM
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conspiatie or not the numbers are worthless. Most don't know how to read them and they are from one merchant.

I posted this in a different thyread (a discussion I started with Nataraj last week)

videobuisness has three charts BD, DVD and HD DVD that are posted every week. at the end of last week I posted the BD and HD DVD top 10 from Amazon in that thread and a few minutes ago I posted the real top 10 for the two formats
------
So Nataraj (and Mark0)
BD titles
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amazon

Superman Returns
Ice Age: The Meltdown
Black Hawk Down
X-Men 3 - The Last Stand
Fantastic Four
Mission Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection
Kingdom of Heaven
The Last Samurai
Wild
World Trade Center
Quote:
Originally Posted by [url
http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6392437.html][/url]
X-MEN: THE LAST STAND (FOX, $39.98)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE ULTIMATE MISSIONS (PAR, $99.99)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III (PAR, $39.99)
FANTASTIC FOUR (FOX, $39.98)
THE FIFTH ELEMENT (SONY, $28.95)
BLACK HAWK DOWN (SONY, $28.95)
TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY (LG, $29.99)
KINGDOM OF HEAVEN (FOX, $39.98)
NACHO LIBRE (PAR, $34.99)
UNDERWORLD: EVOLUTION (SONY, $38.95)
#1 Amazon not top 10
#2 Amazon not top 10
#3 Amazon -#6
#4 - #1
#5 -#4
#6 - #2
#7 - #8
#8 - not top 10
#9 – not top 10
#10 – not top 10


so only 1/2 of Amazon’s top 10 where top 10 last week
and now for HD DVD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amazon
Superman Returns
Batman
Superman - The Movie
V for Vendetta
Superman II - The Richard Donner Cut
Casablanca
King Kong
Digital Video Essentials
Serenity
Terminator 3 - Rise of the Machines
Quote:
Originally Posted by [url
http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6392435.html][/url]
BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III (PAR, $39.99)
KING KONG (UNI, $39.98)
THE POLAR EXPRESS (WB, $28.99)
SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
GOODFELLAS (WB, $28.99)
V FOR VENDETTA (WB, $28.99)
THE LAST SAMURAI (WB, $28.99)
FAST AND THE FURIOUS: TOKYO (UNI, $39.98)
TROY (WB, $28.99)
#1 Amazon not top 10
#2 Amazon - #1
#3 Amazon not top 10
#4 - #7
#5 – not top 10
#6 - not top 10
#7 - #3
#8 - not top 10
#9 – not top 10
#10 – not top 10

so only 3 of the top 10 where top 10

Do you guys still think Amazon sales are representative of the world? And don’t forget videobusiness numbers used for ranking include Amazon sales.

--------------------------
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post #109 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 10:49 PM
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Anthony,

If only you had posted this 100 posts before!

If you had, all the blustering and brew-ha-ha wouldn't have been for not and the thread would have died. :D

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post #110 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oink
Anthony,

If only you had posted this 100 posts before!

If you had, all the blustering and brew-ha-ha wouldn't have been for not and the thread would have died. :D
Not exactly.

Amazon states that their rankings are a (somewhat secret) combination of current and past sales patterns, and therefore you would EXPECT them to trail a weekly snapshot of sales.

Also since what Videobusiness publishes for free on their website is only a top 10 in seaparate lists per platform, and doesn't do ANY good at establishing the relative sales between BD and HD-DVD. So other than confirming what we already know about Amazon's rankings (and that's precious little) this comparison doesn't really settle anything.

But its still another interesting data point.

If Videobusiness published a COMBINED top-10, then we'd really have something of value to look at. Or if someone on this forum has access to the (high-cost) real volume/sales numbers and is willing to publish them (thereby breaking the terms of agreement with the vendor of said data) that would also settle things.

Until then, we're stuck with Amazon's voodoo-infused scheme.
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post #111 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:08 PM
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BTW 5/10 or 3/10 is not a bad catch when you are talking different time periods.

The VB and Amazon numbers refer to different time periods. Also the Amazon ratings include a historical component.

A 30-50% match is actually a pretty high correlation for a 10 item basket.

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post #112 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Do you guys still think Amazon sales are representative of the world? And don’t forget videobusiness numbers used for ranking include Amazon sales.

--------------------------

Actually - they don't include Amazon. At the bottom of the Videobusiness.com sales charts, you'll see that it states that it tracks only "brick and mortar" sales, so Amazon would be excluded, as well as presumably netflix, blockbuster, and other "rental" sales.
Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.
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post #113 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Do you guys still think Amazon sales are representative of the world? And don’t forget videobusiness numbers used for ranking include Amazon sales.
No. But do you figure Amazon is skewed in some way for HD DVD? The specific titles aren't important. It's the levels and trends that may be.

The pricing is about even. The stores are presented pretty much exactly the same. So, over time, if BD is catching up in the real world, it should show a trend to catching up in the various graphs.

In the past week BD is stuck in a range, and HD DVD has been gradually falling. One would wonder where the sales from all those add-ons is going?

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post #114 of 175 Old 11-22-2006, 11:32 PM
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Lets not forget too quickly that Toshiba is launching Gen2 which should put a damper on BD's ticker tape parade on Jan. 22...

Who cares about bickering over Amazon? I think every reasonable person concedes that HD DVD is outselling BD in software as HD DVD owners are happy with the software.

P.S. Jeff's A1 was bug-free, so his claim of it being buggy is disingenuous at best. FUD at the worst. My A1 and plenty of others are also bug free. I created a poll and over 80% had no issues whatsoever. Around 15% had HDMI problems/skipping and another 3-4% had skipping through an analog connection. I could confirm through some snooping on various threads that some, if not many, of those that were polled as having issues did not own a HD-DVD player or were pro-BD. I think saying that the HD-A1 was buggy is just plain false, its akin to saying BD can't look as good as HD DVD. I wish people would grow up and stop saying it.

***Warning*** Do not look into laser with remaining eye!!
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post #115 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 12:46 AM
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Originally Posted by whopper
As usual you are sadly misinformed. There are a number of HD DVD movie releases planned during the next few weeks.
Couldn't disagree more. I'm sure he was happily misinformed :p
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post #116 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 02:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forceflow
Lets not forget too quickly that Toshiba is launching Gen2 which should put a damper on BD's ticker tape parade on Jan. 22...

Who cares about bickering over Amazon? I think every reasonable person concedes that HD DVD is outselling BD in software as HD DVD owners are happy with the software.

P.S. Jeff's A1 was bug-free, so his claim of it being buggy is disingenuous at best. FUD at the worst. My A1 and plenty of others are also bug free. I created a poll and over 80% had no issues whatsoever. Around 15% had HDMI problems/skipping and another 3-4% had skipping through an analog connection. I could confirm through some snooping on various threads that some, if not many, of those that were polled as having issues did not own a HD-DVD player or were pro-BD. I think saying that the HD-A1 was buggy is just plain false, its akin to saying BD can't look as good as HD DVD. I wish people would grow up and stop saying it.
I also thought it was amazing that many people who didn't own a HD DVD player also voted as their player had a problem/ That's why I like public polls here. Its a shame that people are so emotionally invested on their favorite format here sometimes.

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post #117 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 12:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Its a shame that people are so emotionally invested on their favorite format here sometimes.

I have a theory about this...2/3 of those posting at forums of the 2 formats are, in fact, employees of companies that ARE $ invested in one or the other format.

A.P.S. deserve our protection....join the cause today!
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post #118 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oink
I have a theory about this...2/3 of those posting at forums of the 2 formats are, in fact, employees of companies that ARE $ invested in one or the other format.
Thats the weird part. they aren't if you look at their ancient posts. No one could pay someone enough to do this. (A couple of insiders may be exceptions :rolleyes: )

Its just the emotional investment or the idea of rooting for a team or being convinced the side you choose is the right one.

For myself, and some others, of course, its the intellectual challenge of pure learning, discovery and the occasional gift of bringing my unspoiled pearls of wisdom and the bringing of enlightenment unto the poor uneducated masses ;)

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post #119 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 07:52 PM
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AnthonyP,
By using your formula, it would appear the spread is greater than even the best HD DVD fanboy would claim. But it's amazing that you somehow try to back your numbers this way. By using your methodologies, you would be saying HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray by 95:5!
I really hate arguing against my point, but the tuth is I doubt the numbers are that one sided.
My guess is it's about 5:1 but it has been closing. Even so, it is far worse than we all anticipated. I remember folks like Brianmonkey saying it would turn in blurr-ay's favor on the 17th, but it's obvious it didn;t happen. Even a good week after the debut, blu-ray still is far behind, barely cracking a dent in the ratings.

Maybe it will change whne Sony releases their standalone in a week+.... but then again, maybe not....
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post #120 of 175 Old 11-23-2006, 09:03 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0
AnthonyP,
By using your formula, it would appear the spread is greater than even the best HD DVD fanboy would claim. But it's amazing that you somehow try to back your numbers this way. By using your methodologies, you would be saying HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray by 95:5!
I really hate arguing against my point, but the tuth is I doubt the numbers are that one sided.
My guess is it's about 5:1 but it has been closing. Even so, it is far worse than we all anticipated. I remember folks like Brianmonkey saying it would turn in blurr-ay's favor on the 17th, but it's obvious it didn;t happen. Even a good week after the debut, blu-ray still is far behind, barely cracking a dent in the ratings.

Maybe it will change whne Sony releases their standalone in a week+.... but then again, maybe not....

yah alot of people are gonna give all kinds of excuses

oh its only been 5 days
oh most are on ebay (even though theirs about 10,700 ps3s only on ebay)
oh wait for this
oh wait for that

more and more people wil get tired of waiting and just jump to another format or neither.


i just dont understand wtf is wrong with sony they obviously got better specs and ore support. so why didnt they first come out with a $500 or less player and have good consistent pq

who knows but theirs alot of could of's and sony just keeps shooting themselfs in the foot
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