A word of caution to Blu-ray supporters - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 63 Old 01-09-2007, 10:26 PM - Thread Starter
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In the last few days, there may have been a shift in attitude about Blu-ray's prospects. Let's not take this as an opportunity to be prideful or unkind or gloating. For one thing, it's not nice.

It is also not realistic.

Here is what I think is happening. HD DVD had its opportunity last summer with their launch and with all of the titles from Universal and Warners. Some people thought that the format war was a wrap--"the people's choice".

But HD DVD didn't close it. In particular, the customer base never extended far beyond the narrow early-adopter space.

Now, the attention is on Blu-ray, with lots of studio support and players. It is Blu-ray's time in the sun.

My guess is that this will last about 6 months. If Blu-ray doesn't extend its gains substantially in that time, there will be another reconsideration, and some of the Blu-ray exclusive studios will be sounding discouraged.

We need to stay on-track with being reasonable, with using only sensible and fact-based arguments. Remember that Toshiba and Microsoft have proven very effective. They are also not the "enemy" either, since they support high-quality video just like everyone else here.

I still don't really care who wins this format war but I do want to get it finished so I can collect the 300 films I have listed for hd disks.
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post #2 of 63 Old 01-09-2007, 10:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

We need to stay on-track with being reasonable, with using only sensible and fact-based arguments. Remember that Toshiba and Microsoft have proven very effective. They are also not the "enemy" either, since they support high-quality video just like everyone else here.

I still don't really care who wins this format war but I do want to get it finished so I can collect the 300 films I have listed for hd disks.

Two Thumbs Up.

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post #3 of 63 Old 01-09-2007, 10:31 PM
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Good post RLS.

It's the job of the salesman to give honest and accurate product info and let the customer decide if it fits their needs.
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post #4 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 12:18 AM
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Well said...it's like a sea wave..it comes and it goes..none can predict the evolution..Europe has no given final world and i am in good position to said that European are not interested in BR until the price could be affordable..the only one who is reachable now is HD DVD and the sale is starting in right now...
One more thing, BR is yelling victory against HD DVD but what's about the profit? the sale volume has just surpassed HD DVd one but it 's the consolidated figure of all those studios together and that against Warner and Universal one! What is the real profit for each of them? Disney can really say they have done good sale on Dinosaur?
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post #5 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 12:42 AM
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Good post. This will be a back n' forth battle for some time. Neither sides clearly wants to give in and at the end of the day, they're fighting a common enemy: cheaper consumer plenty pleased with DVD.

Sadly, the "noise" members from both sides arguing endless about the same stuff in one thread after another, all over the forum, blows this whole thing out of proportion.
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post #6 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 12:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

In the last few days, there may have been a shift in attitude about Blu-ray's prospects. Let's not take this as an opportunity to be prideful or unkind or gloating. For one thing, it's not nice.

It is also not realistic.

Here is what I think is happening. HD DVD had its opportunity last summer with their launch and with all of the titles from Universal and Warners. Some people thought that the format war was a wrap--"the people's choice".

But HD DVD didn't close it. In particular, the customer base never extended far beyond the narrow early-adopter space.

Now, the attention is on Blu-ray, with lots of studio support and players. It is Blu-ray's time in the sun.

My guess is that this will last about 6 months. If Blu-ray doesn't extend its gains substantially in that time, there will be another reconsideration, and some of the Blu-ray exclusive studios will be sounding discouraged.

We need to stay on-track with being reasonable, with using only sensible and fact-based arguments. Remember that Toshiba and Microsoft have proven very effective. They are also not the "enemy" either, since they support high-quality video just like everyone else here.

I still don't really care who wins this format war but I do want to get it finished so I can collect the 300 films I have listed for hd disks.

Pretty good stuff!

But let me point out here that both players have yet to really enter the mainstream because of COST! All the new toys and CE companies are not going to help BR or HD DVD win this war. THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD DECIDE A CLEAR WINNER IS LOW COST PLAYERS!

WHICHEVER OF THE TWO COMPETING FORMATS CAN RELEASE THE CHEAP,
AFFORDABLE, SUB $300 PLAYER FIRST WILL WIN THIS WAR!

KEEP BOTH FORMATS ALIVE!
This translates to better PQ & AQ.
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post #7 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 12:54 AM
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that's it..
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post #8 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 12:57 AM
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the HD formats won't be anywhere near mainstream for years if ever, people just don't care, DVD is good enough for 95% of people in this country, and lots of those are pleased with less, it just isn't gonna draw them in unless they are in our niche

-Gary
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post #9 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:00 AM
 
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CES is a hardware show and HD DVD did a much beter job than BD. By using CES as an avenue to make movie announcements indicate that BD has nothing new to tell us from a technology perspective....

Just consider all the hardware announcements made by HD DVD and innovations announcements as opposed to the BD side.

To me BD only has the studio angle right now and they are looking to cash that in. This is such a short term tactic that BD supporters should be concerned. Think for yourself guys. Focusing on releases of titles in a mainly hardware show is a clear sign of weakness. The HD DVD group kept the focus on hardware. To me that shows confidence and a long term perspective on the format battle.

I was hoping that people on this forum would be a little more analytical in seeing beyond PR from both sides....anyway, it is what it is :-(
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post #10 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:01 AM
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Gary, you forget that the stuios are dying to get off DVD due to hacking. I'm willing to bet they'll start phasing out DVD and going BD over the next 4 years or so, no matter what. By then the costs will be roughly the same all around anyway, so people will just get the new players as they need to.
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post #11 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001 View Post

Gary, you forget that the stuios are dying to get off DVD due to hacking. I'm willing to bet they'll start phasing out DVD and going BD over the next 4 years or so, no matter what. By then the costs will be roughly the same all around anyway, so people will just get the new players as they need to.

very true, people could very well be forced into it

-Gary
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post #12 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

CES is a hardware show and HD DVD did a much beter job than BD. By using CES as an avenue to make movie announcements indicate that BD has nothing new to tell us from a technology perspective....

Just consider all the hardware announcements made by HD DVD and innovations announcements as opposed to the BD side.

To me BD only has the studio angle right now and they are looking to cash that in. This is such a short term tactic that BD supporters should be concerned. Think for yourself guys. Focusing on releases of titles in a mainly hardware show is a clear sign of weakness. The HD DVD group kept the focus on hardware. To me that shows confidence and a long term perspective on the format battle.

I was hoping that people on this forum would be a little more analytical in seeing beyond PR from both sides....anyway, it is what it is :-(

Perfectly correct sir!

KEEP BOTH FORMATS ALIVE!
This translates to better PQ & AQ.
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post #13 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN View Post

Pretty good stuff!

But let me point out here that both players have yet to really enter the mainstream because of COST! All the new toys and CE companies are not going to help BR or HD DVD win this war. THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD DECIDE A CLEAR WINNER IS LOW COST PLAYERS!

WHICHEVER OF THE TWO COMPETING FORMATS CAN RELEASE THE CHEAP,
AFFORDABLE, SUB $300 PLAYER FIRST WILL WIN THIS WAR!

and this could well be HD DVD within a few months. anyway, we'll see. even if blu-ray does eventually win, in a sense I'm glad that HD DVD will have been around to hopefuly shame blu-ray out of so many 25GB MPEG2 titles. they go on and on about the larger capacity and higher max bitrates and all and they just go and squander it all and give the advantage back to HD DVD on that (nevermind on price since HD DVD is cheaper to make). dumb.
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post #14 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001 View Post

Gary, you forget that the stuios are dying to get off DVD due to hacking. I'm willing to bet they'll start phasing out DVD and going BD over the next 4 years or so, no matter what. By then the costs will be roughly the same all around anyway, so people will just get the new players as they need to.

And how is this going to happen if Chinese manufaturers start rolling out $259 HD DVD players this year?

Do you really think that the average guy cares which format wins? They will follow whomever provides the cheapest players PERIOD...and software would then sell accordingly!

KEEP BOTH FORMATS ALIVE!
This translates to better PQ & AQ.
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post #15 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:46 AM
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I'm not sure that cheap chinese junk players will outsell the main brands for awhile. I'm sure the lower class will get some, but it just won't matter most of the movies people want are on BD. Especially Disney.
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post #16 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

CES is a hardware show and HD DVD did a much beter job than BD. By using CES as an avenue to make movie announcements indicate that BD has nothing new to tell us from a technology perspective....

Just consider all the hardware announcements made by HD DVD and innovations announcements as opposed to the BD side.

To me BD only has the studio angle right now and they are looking to cash that in. This is such a short term tactic that BD supporters should be concerned. Think for yourself guys. Focusing on releases of titles in a mainly hardware show is a clear sign of weakness. The HD DVD group kept the focus on hardware. To me that shows confidence and a long term perspective on the format battle.

I was hoping that people on this forum would be a little more analytical in seeing beyond PR from both sides....anyway, it is what it is :-(


Is this a joke?

BD had way more hardware shown.

Here is what Warner said-

hddvd will bring 2.5 Million devices to the market, Blu-ray 6.2 million devices to the market.
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post #17 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001 View Post

I'm not sure that cheap chinese junk players will outsell the main brands for awhile. I'm sure the lower class will get some, but it just won't matter most of the movies people want are on BD. Especially Disney.

Pardon me, but the "lower class" makes up 70% of the country!

KEEP BOTH FORMATS ALIVE!
This translates to better PQ & AQ.
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post #18 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:52 AM
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95% of statistics on forums are made up.

I just don't think price is going to be a factor. BD might always be a little more expensive hardware-wise, but it's not going to be a large percent.
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post #19 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN View Post

Pardon me, but the "lower class" makes up 70% of the country!

i'm one thank you...lol...getting my add-on today
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post #20 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 01:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TasteThaGumbo View Post

i'm one thank you...lol...getting my add-on today

See? Even lower class people can afford a 360+addon. So I don't think sub $300 vs $500 (even if BD always stays at $500. It won't) is going to swing it over to hddvd without the software.
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post #21 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 02:11 AM
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Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN View Post

Pardon me, but the "lower class" makes up 70% of the country!

Well you could say that 70% doesnt even have a HDTV.
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post #22 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 02:24 AM
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Originally Posted by user7800 View Post

Well you could say that 70% doesnt even have a HDTV.

that's true..and if they don't have Pio with 1080p24, don't have HDTV, a disney movie looks the same for them with SD...no use to purchase a BR player more than 500$..
at the end i really don't like this world " lower class"..that sounds weird!
and sadly to say, what they expect is to crack HD support and pop it in 200$ good upscaler..
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post #23 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 04:43 AM
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It's also important to realize that studios behind BD are saying certain things and taking certain postures not because of arrogance or necessarily because they believe it's a slam dunk.

It is better to realize that when a company (studio) says something, they have a reason for saying it. In this case, they decided that the main reason why the general public is not interested in any highdef format is because of the uncertainty of the format war. Whether we agree or not, these strong statements about 'already won', '3:1 in Q1' are simply attempts to convince the general public that the format war is already decided.

I personally think both formats will be around for a couple of years at least, and the war forces both camps to spend to produce better content on their disks and their technology, which I really like.

But longer term (beyond june 2007) the studios probably are correct. The general public have better things to do than get caught up in some silly format war. They have bills to pay, kids to take care of and you can't convince these people to buy anything that they don't know will be around in a couple of years. They won't spend even $100 to try something that they have doubts on.

The general public will also not buy external upscalers, they took a long time even to adopt multichannel sound. Chances are that they will use HDMI connect to the TV and get stereo or fake 2channel surround sound --- assuming they bothered to buy a cheap HDTV lcd that's around these days.
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post #24 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 04:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001 View Post

95% of statistics on forums are made up.

I just don't think price is going to be a factor. BD might always be a little more expensive hardware-wise, but it's not going to be a large percent.

Correction... 98.735%

Ray Cathode
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post #25 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 05:57 AM
 
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I agree with OP.

Let's not gloat just cos we can. If universal is going neutral, its good for us. Lets savour it if it happens and relax in the knowledge that, in such a case, the war is over, for all practical purposes.
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post #26 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 06:01 AM
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I agree with the OP and I agree with plazman. Blu Ray came out swinging with software & HD-DVD came out swinging with Hardware & innovation. It's exactly what both sides needed...
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post #27 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 06:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN View Post

And how is this going to happen if Chinese manufaturers start rolling out $259 HD DVD players this year?

Do you really think that the average guy cares which format wins? They will follow whomever provides the cheapest players PERIOD...and software would then sell accordingly!

So what's stopping the Chinese manufacturers from producing a cheap BD player?

I realize your upset with what has transpired at CES. A week ago you where giidy with the prospect of Disney and/or Lionsgate going nuetral. Now your position is "CES is just a hardware show".

Thanks for the comedy. I have not laughed this hard in along time.

John McAdams
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post #28 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 06:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poolrad View Post

I agree with the OP and I agree with plazman. Blu Ray came out swinging with software & HD-DVD came out swinging with Hardware & innovation. It's exactly what both sides needed...

Poolrad is correct. Each side played to their strengths.

On another note. I would say 58% of the information on this forum is made up and the other half is based on facts. The math is just as believable.
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post #29 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 06:17 AM
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So I don't think sub $300 vs $500 (even if BD always stays at $500. It won't) is going to swing it over to hddvd without the software.

LMAO - couldn't be more wrong if you tried. When the single standard players were in that price range market penetration was small - early adopters only = studios didn't even bother bringing out most of their titles. When the price hit sub $200 the market took a surge, when it went sub $100 it exploded. This has happened with every format I've seen over the last 30 years. Laser discs failed why? Price, too high = not enough of a market.

Nobody is going to even bother to consider what movies are on what format - all they'll look at is the price. High def players all play SD DVDs right? So I buy the Disney discs on SD - hell, it's only for the kids anyway.

Price always has and always will determine market penetration - content will follow where the numbers go.

Moi? I have no dog in this fight, just want it OVER I don't care who wins. I'm likely your average consumer - Won't pay over $250 & don't give a rats arse about which one "wins".

Quote:


I still don't really care who wins this format war but I do want to get it finished so I can collect the 300 films I have listed for hd disks.

Couldn't have said it better.

It's just my opinion & it's worth exactly what you paid for it.
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post #30 of 63 Old 01-10-2007, 06:24 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user7800 View Post

Is this a joke?

BD had way more hardware shown.

Here is what Warner said-

hddvd will bring 2.5 Million devices to the market, Blu-ray 6.2 million devices to the market.

I must have missed it. Did they show players with advanced audio codecs, BD-Live etc? Any lower priced stand alone players announed at CES?

I believe HD DVD picked up support but not from major studios. It would have been a killer if they did, but they did not. In terms of studio support we have the status quo. In terms of hardware, HD DVD showed progress (new lower priced 1080p/24fps player at $599, higher end Onkyo and Meridean and low end Chinese), they also showed advanced interactivity (again demonstrating progress for the format) and got LG to be neutral.... So, overall HD DVD showed progress any way you slice it. It is also clear that Toshiba is continuing to spend money on R&D and that indicates confidence to me (after seeing how the market is evolving)

I am not sure where the joke is

On another thread that Grubert posted it looks like Universal outsold all other BD exclusive studios in terms of market share for 2006....and I'm glad they did not put out a press release about this and crow like Fox is doing with one week sales data and extrapolating that the battle is over.

We'll see what develops. I distinctly remember speaking to a member who said, prior to the release of BD that there were no movies on HD DVD he was interested in....clearly, that is not a majority view any more

Like I say, examine the facts....you'll be surprised
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