How long till Blu Ray Players reach $150-300 - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 06:27 PM - Thread Starter
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I would love to purchase a Blu Ray player but the prices on the players seem ridiculous. Some are as high as 1000.00 ! I currently have the Xbox 360 HD Dvd player but there are such crappy releases lately and the blu releases really interest me. I have no interest in buying the PS3 and using it as a player, i would like a stand alone player. So how long will i have to wait ?
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post #2 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nate7357 View Post

I would love to purchase a Blu Ray player but the prices on the players seem ridiculous. Some are as high as 1000.00 ! I currently have the Xbox 360 HD Dvd player but there are such crappy releases lately and the blu releases really interest me. I have no interest in buying the PS3 and using it as a player, i would like a stand alone player. So how long will i have to wait ?

The new Sony player in Summer might go as low as $299...

You're like my brother...he got the add-on and now doesn't know what to do with it
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post #3 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 06:42 PM
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Well, the new (cheaper) Sony player is supposed to list for $599, but you might be able to get it for less. Sony has said they expect below-$500 players to be available by Christmas. As for $150-300, don't bet on it anytime soon. It took DVD YEARS to get from $1000 players down to sub-$300 players. Even with the PS3 and a format war, I don't imgine you'll see $299 players before late 2008 at the earliest.
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post #4 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 07:51 PM
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The announcement concerning the new cheaper Sony player was also accompanied by assertions of Xmas prices $299-$399.
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post #5 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:06 PM - Thread Starter
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Thats great guess i will wait till Christmas 299.00 i s a reasonable price.... the Blu Ray libary should be really good by then . Thanks !
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post #6 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:11 PM
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I think by spring of next year, we'll see blu-ray players for $300.
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post #7 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

The announcement concerning the new cheaper Sony player was also accompanied by assertions of Xmas prices $299-$399.

I bet when the COO said that there was a sound of 1000 engineers and marketing people crying out in agony somewhere. I will be watching for this guy to be "promoted" to a less critical position sometime soon.

My way of saying I'd be really surprised if they really do actually get that low this soon.
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post #8 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:39 PM
 
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1 million years!
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post #9 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:43 PM
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Black Friday $299.00 door buster

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post #10 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:47 PM
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If it gets to $350 by christmas of this year this "war" is over.
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post #11 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 08:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by longfellowfan View Post

If it gets to $350 by christmas of this year this "war" is over.

i thought the war was already over? according to sony/bda.

myself i am unsure when they will reach that price maybe years end but no later then next year around ces
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post #12 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 09:14 PM
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DVD went below $300 in its third year and $150 in its sixth year. Here are the historical average prices for DVD players:

Year
1997 $489.97
1998 $390.18
1999 $270.00
2000 $201.55
2001 $165.00
2002 $142.00
2003 $123.00
2004 $108.60

One could use the historical DVD prices as a model for future BD prices, which probably puts $300 BD at late 2008 or 2009.
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post #13 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by 1loudsuv View Post

1 million years!

Actually its 1 million minutes...

Blu-ray is the way!
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post #14 of 21 Old 02-27-2007, 11:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

The announcement concerning the new cheaper Sony player was also accompanied by assertions of Xmas prices $299-$399.


Where was that announcement? The article posted at http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070226/...u_ray_player_2 specifically mentions Sony saying Blu-ray players would be available for under $500 by Christmas. I haven't seen ANYTHING suggesting $299-399 -- but I would love to be wrong about that.
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post #15 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 05:35 AM
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Here's another thread asking a similar question:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=805483

"Retired" AVS Moderator
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post #16 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 05:42 AM
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We'll see sub $300 street pricing before the end of the year IMO.
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post #17 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 06:16 AM
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I don't think it will happen this year, possibly by black Friday 2008. Sony's greed and the fact that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are still less that 1% of sales will not help to drive down prices.

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post #18 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 06:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by longfellowfan View Post

If it gets to $350 by christmas of this year this "war" is over.

Not to interject the obvious, but I believe you're assuming that BR player pricing will drop to that level while HD-DVD player pricing would remain constant. The only problem is that there already is an HD-DVD player street priced for close to that amount (Toshiba HD-A2 currently selling for $385). HD-DVD player prices will continue to decrease as well.

While a BR standalone may in fact get to $350 this year, how does that play if there is a $250 HD-DVD player competing with it?

For example, using Amazon as a barometer (yes it's not perfect, but bear with me), the sales rank of the A2 has been approximately an order of magnitude smaller (better seller) than the highest selling BR standalone virtually every day for the last month. Now, we don't know how many units that order of magnitude translates to; it could be selling 20 units versus selling 2, or it could be selling 4 units versus 2. The only thing that is certain is that the A2 has sold more units on a daily basis. Price matters.

People can scream "Content!" all they want, but cheap sells. Sure, the HT enthusiasts here tend to lean towards quality, but for the mass consumer, "It's the price, dummy!" We get hung up on High resolution audio options and TruHD versus PCM, DTS Master Audio, etc. and split hairs to the Nth degree, disregarding the fact that the vast majority of consumers don't know or couldn't care less about anything other than "Is it gunna give sound on all 5 of my speakers and make the room shake?" Other than that they're going to opt for the cheaper player, especially if the difference is more than $100.

We here at AVS as early adopters are overly sensitized to release schedules and the current disparity in favor of Blu-Ray. Why? We've been snapping up newly released titles since day 1 (for the most part). For an average consumer just entering the fray now, they're probably not seeing any difference in releases in favor of BR, as the incremental difference between formats isn't even on their radar. They're walking into Best Buy or other stores and seeing shelves that are approximately equal (right now) in number of titles, and they're *ALL* new to them. So that's less of an issue to the J6P buyer.

Now this could obviously shift if the release slate stays heavily weighted in BR's favor for a long period of time; if the consumer walks into BB and sees a BR selection 4x or 5x that of HD-DVD, that certainly would have an effect. We're not there yet.

The other variables that could affect this in the next 12 months are TotalHD and universal players. Both could have the effect of making any content disparity across formats moot, depending on their success.

"But I want to do community service; I want to teach the handicapped how to yodel." - Hudson Hawk
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post #19 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 06:55 AM
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Regarding DVD price drops - the format war (and already has) driven down HD prices faster - DVD didn't have a war.

I still say the sheer numbers of PS3s will continue to grow and play a more significant role than $300-400 standalone units in 2007 (Torjan Horse effect too). And even though the attachment rates won't be as high with the PS3, the sheer volume will still more than make up for it.

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post #20 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 07:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1loudsuv View Post

1 million years!

Your statement needs a tiny bit of editing: scratch "million" and change the noun "years" to a single case. Well, now we have a correct statement: 1 year.
Thank you for the information.

In Blu-Ray Veritas!
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post #21 of 21 Old 02-28-2007, 07:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyharmonies View Post

Not to interject the obvious, but I believe you're assuming that BR player pricing will drop to that level while HD-DVD player pricing would remain constant. The only problem is that there already is an HD-DVD player street priced for close to that amount (Toshiba HD-A2 currently selling for $385). HD-DVD player prices will continue to decrease as well.

..... .

I respect your opinion, but I think the reality is not quite in synch with your line of thinking. Yes, mainstream customers are looking at the price tag first and often do not do any research before buying a unit. And for the same reason those customers will continue buying SD DVD / upconverting players for a long time to come. After all, they already bought an "HDTV", so why do they need to spend even more money on some sort of a HD player? This line of thinking is not too uncommon. Many people in this forum are quite correct stating that the real format war is not between Blue-Ray and HD-DVD, it's between SD DVD and the new formats. And when you look at things from this perspective, even the cheaper HD-DVD players stay for the most part above the entry barrier for the mass consumer.
Now, talking about a more sophisticated consumer segment, it looks like those who currently understand the advantages of the newer technologies, coincidentally are in a position to spend more than your typical mass consumer. Therefore, many of those advanced consumers will be basing their purchasing decisions not on price only, but will take other factors into account, studio support for example. If you take a look at the ratio of hardware sales, Blu-Ray players were selling quite well compared to HD-DVD players recently despite being more expensive.
The "real" format war will be over when the Blu-Ray discs will sell at prices comparable to the current SD DVD disc prices. That's when we will see the beginning of true mass penetration of the new format.

In Blu-Ray Veritas!
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