Let's settle PS3 attach rate once and for all - Page 4 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #91 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 12:31 PM
Advanced Member
 
tcable's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: East Taunton, MA
Posts: 534
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
I bought a PS3 this weekend. I did not buy anything else- games or movies.

I'm doing netflix for movies, and getting my feet wet with demos for now.

I did buy an HDMI cable from bluejeans tho.

That makes my attach rate a whopping zero.
tcable is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #92 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 01:40 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Wendell R. Breland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,356
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21 Post(s)
Liked: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

The one where we don't compare apples to swimming pools. When you would like to discuss the beginnings of A/V formats in a reasonable way, get back to me.

You made an unqualified statement. If you had said "the VHS format did not have any prerecorded movies for XX amount of time after the format introduction" would have worked for me.

The BDA made its formal announcement of the BD format on 02-19-2002. It was a record/play format. The format was later changed to accommodate BD ROM and lose the caddy. So, now you can say BD had zero attach rate for over four years.

FWIW Department: Here are some of the format wars I have been involved with:
1" C vs. 1" B vs. 2" Quadraplex ● 16x9 vs. 4x3 ● 1920 x 1080 vs. 1280 x 720 ● 2/3" CCD vs. 1/2" CCD ● 8VSB vs. COFDM ● Avid vs. CMX ● BetaCam vs. Type M ● CD vs. LP ● Laserdisc vs. CED ● PCM 3324/3348 (DASH) vs. Mitsubishi 32 ● Plumbicon vs. CCD ● Solid State vs. Tubes

BD supporters can help up the attach rate by taking advantage of the Buy 2 Get 1 Free, Details Here
Wendell R. Breland is offline  
post #93 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 01:43 PM
 
Slim GoodBooty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,179
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

BD supporters can help up the attach rate by taking advantage of the Buy 2 Get 1 Free, Details Here

They have done a lot of that and no matter how many free, half price discs they've offered HDDVD is still moving on them. If you didn't understand that this conversation is about the launch of a movie format, I really can't help you.
Slim GoodBooty is offline  
post #94 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 02:31 PM
AVS Special Member
 
TauRus's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Chicago NW burbs
Posts: 1,436
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

They have done a lot of that and no matter how many free, half price discs they've offered HDDVD is still moving on them.

Wishful thinking ... the awakening might be painful though ...

In Blu-Ray Veritas!
TauRus is offline  
post #95 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 03:33 PM
AVS Club Gold
 
amillians's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Bloom County
Posts: 4,822
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Padriac View Post

I don't have the numbers to calculate this exactly, but my rough estimate is that you need to sell 5 PS3s to sell as many discs as one standalone player. That's 20%. The PS3 counts as 20% of a standalone. So Blu-ray does not have over 1.5+ million active BD players because of the PS3, it has 300,000 active players and 1.2 million "potential players".

The BDA, specifically the GPC, would strongly disagree with your math.

I'll quote myself from an older quote dated 4/4/07...

From the BDA meeting at Fukuoka...based on PS3 owner polls conducted on behalf of the GPC:

-- 90% of current PS3 owners have watched one or more BD movies on their PS3
-- Over 75% of current PS3 owners plan to use their PS3 as a "primary movie viewing device"
-- 72% of current PS3 owners also plan to rent one or more BD movies

As an aside, to people posting here that don't think Sony and the BDA peddled the PS3 as a Blu-ray movie device to studios, you need to crack into the BDA website and read all the old BDA member presentations. I can think of one studio that signed up simply because of the (now incorrect) prediction of 6MM units delivered by 12/31/06.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
amillians is offline  
post #96 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 03:55 PM
 
Slim GoodBooty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,179
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

The BDA, specifically the GPC, would strongly disagree with your math.

I'll quote myself from an older quote dated 4/4/07...

From the BDA meeting at Fukuoka...based on PS3 owner polls conducted on behalf of the GPC:

-- 90% of current PS3 owners have watched one or more BD movies on their PS3
-- Over 75% of current PS3 owners plan to use their PS3 as a "primary movie viewing device"
-- 72% of current PS3 owners also plan to rent one or more BD movies

As an aside, to people posting here that don't think Sony and the BDA peddled the PS3 as a Blu-ray movie device to studios, you need to crack into the BDA website and read all the old BDA member presentations. I can think of one studio that signed up simply because of the (now incorrect) prediction of 6MM units delivered by 12/31/06.

Well, to date, even with all of the free and half price discs that went through scanners, BD can't show 1 disc per 1 PS3. So, how does that stack up with the BDA's claims? The 20% number seems to be alot more accurate. You guys do want it both ways though.
Slim GoodBooty is offline  
post #97 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 03:55 PM
 
Slim GoodBooty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,179
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by TauRus View Post

Wishful thinking ... the awakening might be painful though ...

How will it be painful for me?
Slim GoodBooty is offline  
post #98 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 09:02 PM - Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
Padriac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 468
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

The BDA, specifically the GPC, would strongly disagree with your math.

I'll quote myself from an older quote dated 4/4/07...

From the BDA meeting at Fukuoka...based on PS3 owner polls conducted on behalf of the GPC:

-- 90% of current PS3 owners have watched one or more BD movies on their PS3
-- Over 75% of current PS3 owners plan to use their PS3 as a "primary movie viewing device"
-- 72% of current PS3 owners also plan to rent one or more BD movies

As an aside, to people posting here that don't think Sony and the BDA peddled the PS3 as a Blu-ray movie device to studios, you need to crack into the BDA website and read all the old BDA member presentations. I can think of one studio that signed up simply because of the (now incorrect) prediction of 6MM units delivered by 12/31/06.

Yes, of course they did. This does not mean that people were expecting PS3 attach rates to be through the roof. It simply means they thought the PS3 would have a significant impact on disc sales (which it very obviously does). Look at your quotes carefully and you'll notice nothing is said about "sales". It's all "interest, watched, or rented". Again, it's typical marketing spin.

Some of you are still not getting the point.

Here's the scenario. Let's imagine through some crazy divine intervention that Toshiba can give away 200,000 HD DVD players at no cost to them. So what they do is replace 200,000 of their most recent DVD purchases with HD DVD players. They tell these people (chosen at random): "You won a special prize! Here is an even better DVD player to replace the one you recently bought from us. It also plays these things called HD DVD which look way awesome!"

Now, suddenly, there are an additional 200,000 HD DVD player owners out there. But, these people are just average, normal people. Most of them won't have HDTVs. Most of them will have no clue what HD DVD even means. None of them had the intention of buying an HD DVD player (otherwise, they wouldn't have recently bought a normal DVD player). Most likely, what they'll do is just keep watching DVDs on their "new" DVD player that they just won, just like they planned to do with the old one. Some of them, however, will try out the HD DVD thing and start buying those discs. (How many? Let's say 20% )

What some of you supporting the attach rate thing are saying is that this action would HARM Toshiba. Giving out these 200,000 HD DVD players would cut HD DVDs attach rate nearly in half and therefore (according to you) it would be a bad move.

That is crazy.

At least the same number of HD DVDs would be sold after the giveaway as before the giveaway. In fact, disc sales will probably go up a bit due to the player influx, even if it is a small proportion who actually buy HD DVDs. Importantly for HD DVD there would be 200,000 people *more likely* to buy HD DVD should the bug hit them. Sure, most of them won't bother, but some may get intrigued. Some may get HDTVs at a later point and want better looking movies. These people, since they already have an HD DVD player would be more likely to buy HD DVD than bother buying yet another (Blu-ray) player to get HD. These are all good things even though they result in a lower attach rate.

This is essentially what happened with the PS3 (just not as drastically). While some bought it just for Blu-ray, and others bought it for Blu-ray+games, the vast majority bought it just to play games. To these people, having a PS3 is the same thing as sending HD DVD players to random people: just because the capability is there does not mean they will use it immediately (or at all).

Another example: Nintendo does NOT count each Wii it sells as a Gamecube sale. Why not? The Wii plays all Gamecube games, so shouldn't every Wii player count a s a Gamecube too? NO. Buying a Wii and buying a Gamecube are not the same thing. Buying a Gamecube means: "I have a definite interest in playing Gamecube games." Buying a Wii does not mean that, it means :"I have a definite interest in playing Wii games and I MAY or MAY NOT have an interest in playing Gamecube games". There is a WORLD of difference between these two scenarios.

This is why the PS3 can't be considered the same as a standalone, and this is why the player sales figures and attach rate figures are bogus. I don't care what the BDA said, the DVD forum said, or what Andy Parsons whispered into your ear last night. The fact of the matter is that there is no logical basis by which it makes sense to count the PS3 as a full standalone player for statistical purposes, so lets just stop doing it.
Padriac is offline  
post #99 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 09:39 PM
AVS Special Member
 
HorrorScope's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: NoCal
Posts: 4,251
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert George View Post

Fast math is a little too fast.

Last count I read was ~3.2 million PS3 sold.

Both POTC discs were reported as "just less than 47,000".

47,000 divided by 2 = 23,500

1 POTC disc sold for every 136 PS3's for the big honkin' attach rate of .7% (that's a point in front of that 7) for the PS3.

Bob Chapek (Disney) didn't really put it like that, did he.

My math was fine fwiw, I mentioned 1 million ps3's might not be in a place where POTC was available. I was trying to be nice, but I did make that note. Either way there doesn't seem to be a lot PS3's being used for BD playback, I would have to say it's even lower then even the harshest critic would have imagined back in say Oct. '06. Not that HD DVD is burning down the house either, but it is pretty simple math to notice a very small market on the Ps3 side of things.
HorrorScope is offline  
post #100 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 10:09 PM
 
briankmonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 13,959
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Still not settled yet, lol Keep brainstorming guys
briankmonkey is offline  
post #101 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 10:18 PM
 
Slim GoodBooty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,179
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Padriac View Post

Another example: Nintendo does NOT count each Wii it sells as a Gamecube sale. Why not?
.

I missed where Nintendo was trying to launch the Gamecube platform with the Wii. Could you please give me a link to that press release?
Slim GoodBooty is offline  
post #102 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 10:22 PM
Advanced Member
 
todrigo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 812
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

-- 90% of current PS3 owners have watched one or more BD movies on their PS3

So where does that mention purchasing BD movies?

Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

-- Over 75% of current PS3 owners plan to use their PS3 as a "primary movie viewing device"

Key words "Primary Movie" I am pretty sure most people consider DVDs to be their primary movie format so that number has no little meaning here

Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

-- 72% of current PS3 owners also plan to rent one or more BD movies

I plan on doing a lot of things, some later today, some tomorrow some ten years from now. I plan on renting BD's at some point but I haven't rented a movie of any format in about a year so where does that leave the statistic?



Volume is by far the more key factor. You have to own a HD media player in order to even consider HD media. More BD playing devices are in the hands of consumers therefore more people consider buying BD discs.

Volume predicts price breaks (break even points are met sooner), volume attracts competition (more movies released and sooner), volume determines market share.

PSN - todrigo
todrigo is offline  
post #103 of 165 Old 06-05-2007, 11:33 PM - Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
Padriac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 468
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

I missed where Nintendo was trying to launch the Gamecube platform with the Wii. Could you please give me a link to that press release?

Statistics don't change depending on your intention. Thinking a press release has anything to do with this (even joking) is exactly why some of you don't get it. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OPINION OR RHETORIC. THIS IS MATH.
Padriac is offline  
post #104 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 12:33 AM
Advanced Member
 
Ktak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Posts: 796
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by todrigo View Post

So where does that mention purchasing BD movies?.

Are we talking about the Japan market here? If so, unless they borrowed a disc from a friend, they would have had to purchase one. From day one, the PS3 in Japan never came bundled with ANY free BD movies. And to my knowledge, there aren't any nation-wide video chains (online or brick and mortar) that are currently renting them. I haven't even found a LOCAL rental place that has BDs yet, and believe me I've tried. Despite this, everyone I know who has a PS3 or BD recorder (standalone players are pretty much non-existent here) has also watched at least one movie on it. I know they're not getting them from me, so they must be buying. The relatively high penetration of HDTVs here (especially among the demographic likely to own a PS3) and the virtual absence of competition from HD-DVD would make it almost inevitable that the attach rate in Japan would be higher than the U.S.
Ktak is offline  
post #105 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 01:54 AM
AVS Special Member
 
WriteSimple's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: KL, Malaysia.
Posts: 3,206
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

Well, to date, even with all of the free and half price discs that went through scanners, BD can't show 1 disc per 1 PS3. So, how does that stack up with the BDA's claims? The 20% number seems to be alot more accurate. You guys do want it both ways though.

I'll detach myself from typical BD supporters by saying, like others in this thread, that the attach rate of BD-to-PS3 is not 1-to-1 and not 100% or 80% of PS3 owners are buying BDs.

So I don't want it both ways. HD-DVD gets the attach rate. But BD get this, week after week after week since January 1st, 2007.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

They have done a lot of that and no matter how many free, half price discs they've offered HDDVD is still moving on them.

You mentioned this in reference to the current Amazon sale of Buy-2-Get-1 Sony titles.

So this Amazon sale is even worse than the US$249 HD-DVD player PLUS 5 free discs + The Matrix set promotion? So that's how HD-DVD is moving on BD from its merit of superior technical and studio support?

Here's the facts. Taken with the PS3s sold, the BD attach rate is low. The unit sales is high. As RGeorge said, "it is what it is."

What matters is SCEA and the BDA can work on getting the sales higher by putting out a campaign showing people, including current PS3 owners, that the PS3 makes a great BD player. The biggest hurdle for the BD attach rate had already been overcome; the PS3s are already in homes. The next hurdle is getting people to rent and buy more BDs.

Padriac, great job at staying on the ball.


fuad

"DonÂt let them tell you who you are is not enough, that itÂs wrong and that you wonÂt find love. DonÂt let them use my life to put your future down, or tell you that happiness canÂt be found."
WriteSimple is offline  
post #106 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 05:54 AM
AVS Club Gold
 
amillians's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Bloom County
Posts: 4,822
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
todrigo,

Methinks you misunderstood the intent/tone of my post: these are stats the PR arm of the BDA presented at a recent BDA meeting...with BDA studios attending. Not the general public. They're in effect spinning to their own people, twisting trumped up polls to reinforce the ridiculous predictions...but that's happened before...just ask Maureen Webber, who used to run global/Americas PR for them...they threw her under the bus a few times...a double decker one at that (just not manufactured where they told her).

Let me add one more quote from that meeting to hammer the point home--this one came from Sony data, as re-quoted by Michael Hoog of Corporate Advocates, Inc., a BDA PR firm.

Slide Title:

"The Impact of PlayStation 3"

Quote:

"80% of PS3's plus six CE models equals a massive installed base of Blu-ray players."

Source:

Sony Corp.

P.S. The same slide noted Sony was "on target" to deliver 6,000,000 PS3s by 3/31/07...I don't have Jethro Bodeen's mad cipherin skills, but 80% of 6,000,000 is 4,800,000...then add the standalones. Then run your attach rate calculations.

P.P.S. Please don't think I agree in any way with this BS...I'm just amused at how gullible some studios were--and still seem to be.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
amillians is offline  
post #107 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 07:33 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Wendell R. Breland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,356
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21 Post(s)
Liked: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

They have done a lot of that and no matter how many free, half price discs they've offered HDDVD is still moving on them.

Yea, I see what you mean.




Quote:


If you didn't understand that this conversation is about the launch of a movie format, I really can't help you.

You really are confused, I never asked for your help!!
Wendell R. Breland is offline  
post #108 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 07:41 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Wendell R. Breland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,356
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21 Post(s)
Liked: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

P.P.S. Please don't think I agree in any way with this BS...I'm just amused at how gullible some studios were--and still seem to be.

Just to be clear, which ones are gullible, the ones with the 70% share or the ones with the 30% share?
Wendell R. Breland is offline  
post #109 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 07:45 AM
AVS Club Gold
 
amillians's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Bloom County
Posts: 4,822
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Just to be clear, which ones are gullible, the ones with the 70% share or the ones with the 30% share?

The ones that thought they were going to have a minimum of 4,800,000 Blu-ray buyers to sell to as of 3/31/07.

70% of small is still, unfortunately, small. We here may bicker about the academic, but studios really aren't making money off of either format right now.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
amillians is offline  
post #110 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 07:48 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Jiffylush's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: NC
Posts: 4,027
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

Just to be clear, which ones are gullible, the ones with the 70% share or the ones with the 30% share?

You seem to have forgotten so I will reinforce the talking point for you: Not selling to the smaller portion of the market is a mistake. Not selling to the larger portion of the market doesn't matter, because the market is so small.
Jiffylush is offline  
post #111 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 08:16 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Wendell R. Breland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,356
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21 Post(s)
Liked: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

The ones that thought they were going to have a minimum of 4,800,000 Blu-ray buyers to sell to as of 3/31/07.

70% of small is still, unfortunately, small. We here may bicker about the academic, but studios really aren't making money off of either format right now.

Well 30% of small is even smaller. And we both know both sides has portrayed themselves as rosier than they really are.

Alex, we both know launching a HD format disc is going to be a hard row to hoe. Two formats stands very little chance of success. We both know that Blu-ray has the better chance of becoming successful. Bill Hunt at the Digital Bits has finally decided to endorse BD as the format of choice. Now we need to get S&V and others to do the same.
Wendell R. Breland is offline  
post #112 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 02:54 PM
AVS Special Member
 
yakkosmurf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,124
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

The ones that thought they were going to have a minimum of 4,800,000 Blu-ray buyers to sell to as of 3/31/07.

70% of small is still, unfortunately, small. We here may bicker about the academic, but studios really aren't making money off of either format right now.

I do believe you stupidly stumbled into the point made in the original post. Did you read it?
yakkosmurf is offline  
post #113 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 08:20 PM
AVS Club Gold
 
amillians's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Bloom County
Posts: 4,822
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by yakkosmurf View Post

I do believe you stupidly stumbled into the point made in the original post. Did you read it?

My posts in this thread center on what the BDA has told BDA members at meetings, to help balance forum speculation with studio reality. Notice that I'm not centering on what the BDA is telling the public--I'm focusing on what they are telling the party faithful. To argue that there's a distinction between "active" and "potential" Blu-ray players when theorizing about attach rates is moot when the people who calculate and care about said rate don't make such a distinction...every PS3 sold is a Blu-ray player in the BDA studios' eyes...period. Trust me on this one...Sony made some very convincing and compelling arguments way back when, and voila, here we are.

And yes, I read the original post, but I wasn't aware that every post after said post had to directly reflect back to said post. I mistakenly--nay, stupidly--thought I could respond to a post that grew from the original post. Sorry...I'm kind of a noob at this whole forum thing.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to return to concentrating on finding my ass with both hands. Hopefully, I'll stupidly stumble on it.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
amillians is offline  
post #114 of 165 Old 06-06-2007, 08:48 PM
AVS Club Gold
 
alfbinet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Old Brooklyn (Cleveland), Ohio
Posts: 3,066
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by amillians View Post

My posts in this thread center on what the BDA has told BDA members at meetings, to help balance forum speculation with studio reality. Notice that I'm not centering on what the BDA is telling the public--I'm focusing on what they are telling the party faithful. To argue that there's a distinction between "active" and "potential" Blu-ray players when theorizing about attach rates is moot when the people who calculate and care about said rate don't make such a distinction...every PS3 sold is a Blu-ray player in the BDA studios' eyes...period. Trust me on this one...Sony made some very convincing and compelling arguments way back when, and voila, here we are.

And yes, I read the original post, but I wasn't aware that every post after said post had to directly reflect back to said post. I mistakenly--nay, stupidly--thought I could respond to a post that grew from the original post. Sorry...I'm kind of a noob at this whole forum thing.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to return to concentrating on finding my ass with both hands. Hopefully, I'll stupidly stumble on it.

Alex, I was waiting for your response. You are never a disappointment.

Chad Billheimer rocks as a ISF Calibrator for Ohio.
Roller Coaster season is upon us. Proud member of American Coaster Enthusiasts (ACE) Woodies Rule!
alfbinet is offline  
post #115 of 165 Old 06-07-2007, 12:16 AM
AVS Special Member
 
pteittinen's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Finland
Posts: 3,790
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Alex, I hope you locate your ass. Oh, and thanks once again for good posts.

On a related note, can you imagine Buena Vista execs channeling Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda? "DISAPPOINTED!!"

Please, feel free to call me by my first name, Petri.
pteittinen is offline  
post #116 of 165 Old 06-07-2007, 07:26 PM - Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
Padriac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 468
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Okay, here's an interesting point:

The PS3 is NOT listed in Amazon's DVD player category. If the PS3 is not counted there, why is it counted in player sales and attach rate figures?
Padriac is offline  
post #117 of 165 Old 06-07-2007, 07:54 PM
AVS Club Gold
 
jdskycaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 654
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 18
Evidently Amazon cant find their Ass either
jdskycaster is offline  
post #118 of 165 Old 06-08-2007, 04:47 AM
AVS Club Gold
 
alfbinet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Old Brooklyn (Cleveland), Ohio
Posts: 3,066
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

You made an unqualified statement. If you had said "the VHS format did not have any prerecorded movies for XX amount of time after the format introduction" would have worked for me.

The BDA made its formal announcement of the BD format on 02-19-2002. It was a record/play format. The format was later changed to accommodate BD ROM and lose the caddy. So, now you can say BD had zero attach rate for over four years.

FWIW Department: Here are some of the format wars I have been involved with:
1" C vs. 1" B vs. 2" Quadraplex ● 16x9 vs. 4x3 ● 1920 x 1080 vs. 1280 x 720 ● 2/3" CCD vs. 1/2" CCD ● 8VSB vs. COFDM ● Avid vs. CMX ● BetaCam vs. Type M ● CD vs. LP ● Laserdisc vs. CED ● PCM 3324/3348 (DASH) vs. Mitsubishi 32 ● Plumbicon vs. CCD ● Solid State vs. Tubes

BD supporters can help up the attach rate by taking advantage of the Buy 2 Get 1 Free, Details Here

Curious, what year did they decide to change the format to allow BD rom? So BD rom was not in the original intent for BD?

Chad Billheimer rocks as a ISF Calibrator for Ohio.
Roller Coaster season is upon us. Proud member of American Coaster Enthusiasts (ACE) Woodies Rule!
alfbinet is offline  
post #119 of 165 Old 06-08-2007, 08:30 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Wendell R. Breland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,356
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21 Post(s)
Liked: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by alfbinet View Post

Curious, what year did they decide to change the format to allow BD rom?

Sorry, do not have an answer. The BD-ROM was approved August, 2004, IIRC.

Quote:


So BD rom was not in the original intent for BD?

Sony had ever intention of delivering movies in a HD format going back to the 90,s. They presented their HD format case to the DVD members but they (most) were not interested.


The nine original founders of the BDA:

Hitachi, Ltd.
LG Electronics Inc.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Pioneer Corporation
Royal Philips Electronics
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Sharp Corporation
Sony Corporation
Thomson Multimedia
Wendell R. Breland is offline  
post #120 of 165 Old 06-08-2007, 09:41 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Pecker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,170
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Liked: 15
I've found my original calculations. These numbers will be out of date now, but I suppose they indicate how I've worked things out, and the trends.

I had to re-calculate for variations on the 360 attachment rates, so I've included those figures. This was in late April:



=========================================================


All figures are for the USA. Starting figures:

100k HD DVD standalones sold (just over)
150k 360 add-ons sold
1,000,000 HD DVDs sold (just under)

100k BD standalones sold (just over)
1.3 million PS3s sold
1,000,000 BDs sold (just over)


HD DVD standalones + 360 add-ons (bought solely for films, so effectively standalones for the purposes of this) = a total of 250,000 HD DVD players (100k standalones + 150k 360 add-ons).

As 1,000,000 HD DVD discs have been sold, that means every HD DVD player owner has bought 4 discs each.

I'm going to guess (and I don't think this is at all controversial) that BD standalones have a similar uptake of 4 films per player. That means BD standalone owners have bought 240,000 discs of the 1,000,000 BDs sold.

This leaves 760,000 sold to the 1.3 million PS3 owners.

That's an attachment rate of about 0.6 discs per PS3.

Now, let's say that a film fan is a film fan, and a PS3 BD fan is just as much a high def film fan as an HD DVD standalone fan.

If the PS3 Film Club members have bought 4 films each (just like their counterparts with HD DVD & BD standalones and 360 add-ons), that means that there are 190,000 PS3 owners buying films (760,000 divided by 4).

That means only about 1 in 7 PS3 owners is buying films.


(By the way, the red bit doesn't matter too much, I've just included it for completion's sake. The attachment rate is the same whether it's 1 PS3 owner buying 4 discs or 4 PS3 owners buying 1 disc each).

Where does this leave us?

HD DVD standalone/360 add-on attachment rate = 4 discs per player;
BD standalone attachment rate = presumably about the same;
PS3 attachment rate = 0.6 discs per player.







=========================================================



Additional calculations, presuming that 360 add-on owners are buying fewer discs than standalone owners, and also that HD DVD sales might be artificially lower due to the larger number of disc give-aways with new players (which don't count in sales, but mean owners won't buy as many discs)


========================================================




Rather than an attachment rate across all HD DVD players, we might say the standalones have an attachment rate of 5 discs per player, and the add-ons 3.333 per player. That's make 1,000,000 discs.

If we then presume the BD standalones also have an attachment rate of 5, that means the 60k units out there account for 500,000, and the 1.3 million PS3s account for the other 500,000.

That's an attachment rate of 0.5 discs per PS3.

But there's a real nightmare scenario we haven't considered for the PS3.

Toshiba gave away 4 or 5 free discs with their players. These don't count as sales.

Now BD gave away 1 free disc with some models, and maybe the freebies didn't dent sales on a 1:1 basis. Let's say it's worth 2 discs per player.

And let's say, from sales, the add-on only has an attachment rate of 1.5 films per player (still 3x the PS3).

That would mean 1.5 x 150,000 = 225,000. Take that from the million discs sold, and we get 775,000 left. That's an attachment rate of 7.75 per player. Add the two from the freebies and you get a standalone attachment rate of almost 10 discs per player (they've bought about 8 per player, and would have bought 2 more if they hadn't had 4 or 5 freebies). I think that's not unreasonable - how many of us have bought less that 10 discs?

If 60,000 BD standalones also have an attachment rate of 10 per player, that means standalone owners have bought 600,000 discs, and PS3 owners 400,000.

That's an attachment rate for the PS3 of only 0.3 discs per player.

BTW, in that scenario, and if PS3 film buyers are buying the same as 360 add-on film buyers (1.5 each), that means only 265,000 PS3 owners are buying films, and the other 1,035,000 aren't.

Anyway, this leaves us with:


HD DVD standalone attachment rate = 10 discs per player;
BD standalone attachment rate = presumably about the same;
360 add-on attachment rate = 1.5 per player;
PS3 attachment rate = 0.3 discs per player.



==========================================================








I make no claim that the figures are 100% accurate, but I'm sure the general trend is there.

Steve W
Pecker is offline  
Reply Blu-ray Players

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off