Originally Posted by amillians
The BDA, specifically the GPC, would strongly disagree with your math.
I'll quote myself from an older quote dated 4/4/07...
From the BDA meeting at Fukuoka...based on PS3 owner polls conducted on behalf of the GPC:
-- 90% of current PS3 owners have watched one or more BD movies on their PS3
-- Over 75% of current PS3 owners plan to use their PS3 as a "primary movie viewing device"
-- 72% of current PS3 owners also plan to rent one or more BD movies
As an aside, to people posting here that don't think Sony and the BDA peddled the PS3 as a Blu-ray movie device to studios, you need to crack into the BDA website and read all the old BDA member presentations. I can think of one studio that signed up simply because of the (now incorrect) prediction of 6MM units delivered by 12/31/06.
Yes, of course they did. This does not mean that people were expecting PS3 attach rates to be through the roof. It simply means they thought the PS3 would have a significant impact on disc sales (which it very obviously does). Look at your quotes carefully and you'll notice nothing is said about "sales". It's all "interest, watched, or rented". Again, it's typical marketing spin.
Some of you are still not getting the point.
Here's the scenario. Let's imagine through some crazy divine intervention that Toshiba can give away 200,000 HD DVD players at no cost to them. So what they do is replace 200,000 of their most recent DVD purchases with HD DVD players. They tell these people (chosen at random): "You won a special prize! Here is an even better DVD player to replace the one you recently bought from us. It also plays these things called HD DVD which look way awesome!"
Now, suddenly, there are an additional 200,000 HD DVD player owners out there. But, these people are just average, normal people. Most of them won't have HDTVs. Most of them will have no clue what HD DVD even means. None of them had the intention of buying an HD DVD player (otherwise, they wouldn't have recently bought a normal DVD player). Most likely, what they'll do is just keep watching DVDs on their "new" DVD player that they just won, just like they planned to do with the old one. Some of them, however, will try out the HD DVD thing and start buying those discs. (How many? Let's say 20%
What some of you supporting the attach rate thing are saying is that this action would HARM Toshiba. Giving out these 200,000 HD DVD players would cut HD DVDs attach rate nearly in half and therefore (according to you) it would be a bad move.
That is crazy.
At least the same number of HD DVDs would be sold after the giveaway as before the giveaway. In fact, disc sales will probably go up a bit due to the player influx, even if it is a small proportion who actually buy HD DVDs. Importantly for HD DVD there would be 200,000 people *more likely* to buy HD DVD should the bug hit them. Sure, most of them won't bother, but some may get intrigued. Some may get HDTVs at a later point and want better looking movies. These people, since they already have an HD DVD player would be more likely to buy HD DVD than bother buying yet another (Blu-ray) player to get HD. These are all good things even though they result in a lower attach rate.
This is essentially what happened with the PS3 (just not as drastically). While some bought it just for Blu-ray, and others bought it for Blu-ray+games, the vast majority bought it just to play games. To these people, having a PS3 is the same thing as sending HD DVD players to random people: just because the capability is there does not mean they will use it immediately (or at all).
Another example: Nintendo does NOT count each Wii it sells as a Gamecube sale. Why not? The Wii plays all Gamecube games, so shouldn't every Wii player count a s a Gamecube too? NO. Buying a Wii and buying a Gamecube are not the same thing. Buying a Gamecube means: "I have a definite interest in playing Gamecube games." Buying a Wii does not mean that, it means :"I have a definite interest in playing Wii games and I MAY or MAY NOT have an interest in playing Gamecube games". There is a WORLD of difference between these two scenarios.
This is why the PS3 can't be considered the same as a standalone, and this is why the player sales figures and attach rate figures are bogus. I don't care what the BDA said, the DVD forum said, or what Andy Parsons whispered into your ear last night. The fact of the matter is that there is no logical basis by which it makes sense to count the PS3 as a full standalone player for statistical purposes, so lets just stop doing it.