What big BD announcement is happening tomorrow, if anything? - Page 6 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #151 of 162 Old 06-24-2007, 11:20 AM
 
5thDanMaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 3,030
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Well, did anything happen?
5thDanMaster is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #152 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 04:00 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
Rob Tomlin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: SoCal
Posts: 13,752
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Esox50 View Post

Hmmm...

I do not know if this is going to be a big announcement or a little announcement but it seems like some news is coming out next week and if it were insignificant, I doubt this poster would have even brought it to people's attention:

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.ph...postcount=1202

Have a good weekend everyone. I'm betting it's Fox...

Looks like it might be another retailer announcement in favor of Blu-ray: http://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.ph...postcount=1212


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Rob Tomlin is offline  
post #153 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 05:39 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Esox50's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: IL
Posts: 1,473
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin View Post

Looks like it might be another retailer announcement in favor of Blu-ray: http://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.ph...postcount=1212

Yep, it really is amazing how fast this is all unfolding. I mean, we're not even officially into the 2nd half of the year yet. The stage is being set. Wow.

So if it's a retailer...how long til we start getting the BIG 2nd 1/2 BD title announcements.
Esox50 is offline  
post #154 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 06:19 PM
AVS Special Member
 
rlsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Palo Alto, CA
Posts: 5,618
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

The royalties paid to the creaters of DVD amount to around .25 per disc. Lets say that Sony has been especially shrewd with Blu-ray and will get a $1 royalty per disc.

How many movie discs do you need to buy for them to "break even" on your PS3 purchase?

Around 200-300.

What's the attach rate on the PS3? Around 1 movie.

Do you have any evidence for $1 per disk or is this purely a hypothetical?

The reason I ask is that this is the way urban legends can accidently begin.


Thanks!
rlsmith is offline  
post #155 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 06:31 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
jmpage2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 10,053
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Liked: 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Do you have any evidence for $1 per disk or is this purely a hypothetical?

The reason I ask is that this is the way urban legends can accidently begin.


Thanks!

My post was purely speculative. However, I do believe that the DVD licensing royalties are around twenty five cents per disc.

I would expect Blu-ray to have similar licensing royalties, or, as I indicated, Sony is especially shrewd and has managed to get themselves a "better deal" in the royalties department.
jmpage2 is offline  
post #156 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 06:37 PM
AVS Special Member
 
rlsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Palo Alto, CA
Posts: 5,618
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

My post was purely speculative. However, I do believe that the DVD licensing royalties are around twenty five cents per disc.

I would expect Blu-ray to have similar licensing royalties, or, as I indicated, Sony is especially shrewd and has managed to get themselves a "better deal" in the royalties department.

My guess is that the royalties will be somewhat similar for Blu-ray, HD DVD, and DVD at the end of the day.

DVD was such a success because of the low pricing and encouragement to sell-through at low prices. High royalties can hinder such pricing and such growth.

Sony would clearly like to see the day where all new players are Blu-ray and a growing overall percentage of disks would be Blu-ray. Over time, this would divert the royalty stream currently going to the DVD Forum (of which Sony gets some BTW) to going to the BDA (of which Sony gets more). Toshiba clearly does not want to change the balance.

It is precisely this dispute that has given us the format war.
rlsmith is offline  
post #157 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 06:41 PM
 
plazman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 6,313
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
I see it's a rumor being spread by P-Man. I'll be shocked if he does have any inside info!

I'd bet here is someone quoting a rumor he heard from someone - most likely he is picking up what Piadgeek said here about Target going BD hardware exclusive....

Given that I live inside the Capital beltway and have met the Sec. of Homeland Security (current and past) and Sec. of Labor, Ishould call myself a 'Beltway Insider' - since technically I am by dint of living inside the beltway. But it sure does not mean I have any credible info...just by living inside the beltway
plazman is offline  
post #158 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 06:42 PM
 
DTV TiVo Dealer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Scarsdale, NY
Posts: 4,878
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Correct as usual rlsmith.

-Robert
DTV TiVo Dealer is offline  
post #159 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 07:20 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Paulidan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,963
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

My guess is that the royalties will be somewhat similar for Blu-ray, HD DVD, and DVD at the end of the day.

DVD was such a success because of the low pricing and encouragement to sell-through at low prices. High royalties can hinder such pricing and such growth.

Sony would clearly like to see the day where all new players are Blu-ray and a growing overall percentage of disks would be Blu-ray. Over time, this would divert the royalty stream currently going to the DVD Forum (of which Sony gets some BTW) to going to the BDA (of which Sony gets more). Toshiba clearly does not want to change the balance.

It is precisely this dispute that has given us the format war.

so that means that if royalties are in fact around $.25 / disc title...and some percentage of PS3 players were bought with the sole intention of getting a cheap Bd movie player...how many Bd movies have to sell before Sony can recoup the $300 spent subsidizing the player?

for the # of consoles bought strictly for movie playback; Is 10% of all PS3 sales a figure people here can accept?
Between 100,000-200,000? or is that too high?

Let's be conservative and low ball it. Say 75,000 units are going to be used soely for movie playback.
75,000 x $300 = $22,500,000.
at $.25 per title that means they only have to produce, move, sell 90 million discs before those players are fully subsidized.

I realize it doesn't quite work this way and that PS3 game royalties are far more...but those royalties also have to go towards those other 2+ million consoles out there (a $600 million deficet and growing every day)- and in case people haven't been following the news, that console is currently a distant #3 out of the 3 next gen consoles.

Of course, none of those figures include how much is being spent on replication facilities.- or being thrown away on poor yields and low cycle times.

which is why it amuses me to see so many people thinking that Blu-ray selling 10,000 copies of a given title compared to HD DVDs 5,000 is a sign that the end is imminent for the other format.

From where I sit, Blu-ray is in one huge pickle for multiple reasons, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it implode out of the blue one day.
Paulidan is offline  
post #160 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 08:18 PM
AVS Special Member
 
rlsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Palo Alto, CA
Posts: 5,618
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulidan View Post

Let's be conservative and low ball it. Say 75,000 units are going to be used soely for movie playback.
75,000 x $300 = $22,500,000.
at $.25 per title that means they only have to produce, move, sell 90 million discs before those players are fully subsidized.

Warners alone is shipping over 1 billion (!) DVD's per year. That is a very huge stream. If 10% of that is diverted to nextgen, that would be 100 million disks from one studio in one year. So there is your 90 million disks with 10 million to spare.

With over 30% of the public now owning an HDTV, my prediction is that nextgen players will quickly move to push standard DVD players out of the marketplace. 2 years max. With NTSC broadcasting shutting down in less than 2 years, a lot of HDTV sets are going to be sold. The conversion to nextgen disks could go very very quickly if the format war is resolved.

Don't underestimate how quickly this can unfold.
rlsmith is offline  
post #161 of 162 Old 06-25-2007, 10:15 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Paulidan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,963
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Warners alone is shipping over 1 billion (!) DVD's per year. That is a very huge stream. If 10% of that is diverted to nextgen, that would be 100 million disks from one studio in one year. So there is your 90 million disks with 10 million to spare.

? Their biggest movie title so far has been The Departed which has barely sold over 100,000 units between both formats.
I just don't think your scenario has any basis in reality.

also I would question how long it will be before Sony actually has the capability to produce 90 million sellable discs comprised of several hundred unique titles.

How many do you think they will produce for Q4? I would bet even 10 million would be pushing it considerably in terms of capacity and consumer interest.
Paulidan is offline  
post #162 of 162 Old 06-27-2007, 04:57 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
Rob Tomlin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: SoCal
Posts: 13,752
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
We should be getting closer to the rumored/expected announcement, whatever it might be:

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread....573#post119573


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Rob Tomlin is offline  
Reply Blu-ray Players

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off