Sony: Blu-ray set-top players out-selling HD DVD - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 04:58 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anttimonty View Post

So did everybody mis this article awhile back?

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6467868

You did check the references right? Those two AV sellers are local Chicago companies. They are not even on the map when it comes to sales of anything compared to BB, CC, Wal-Mart.

Just because it is in print does not make it fact.
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post #92 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 05:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

You did check the references right? Those two AV sellers are local Chicago companies. They are not even on the map when it comes to sales of anything compared to BB, CC, Wal-Mart.

Just because it is in print does not make it fact.

Yes and I'm waiting for more recent reports from NPD with numbers and yes most likely HD DVD is still ahead of Blu-Ray in terms of standalone sales, but I suspect the cap isn't nearly huge enough for them to make a difference when the PS3 sales has accelerated.
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post #93 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 05:22 AM
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Here's the last two known nielsen videoscan numbers for numbers of disks sold.

If standalone players are truly very far apart between the two formats, how can the number of movies sold be so heavily in on the blue side?

disks sold wk ending 07.08.19 (BD:HD) (71:29)
disks sold wk ending 07.08.26 (BD:HD) (68:32)
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=4
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=5

Compare this against the historical tally of movies sold in this chart (from grubert's post in the nielsen thread here) :



If HD DVD standalone is outselling BD standalone by a large ratio then how can the number of movie sales be so far apart week after week?

Note I have no doubt believing there are more HD standalones than BD standalones, I don't buy that it is anywhere near 2:1. The numbers tossed around is 700K HD DVD players (including add-on). According to vgchartz.com, only 1.98M PS3s were sold in US so far, and I expect only a fraction of those are used as dedicated players. With 700,000 being tossed around as HD DVD player sales, how can the number of movies sold be so far apart.

Still, tomorrow, we'll have the BoG & Heroes release included in HD DVD sales, with nothing on the BD side anywhere near in value, so we might see a better ratio for HD DVD players, so we'll see how this plays out.
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post #94 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 05:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

Isn't the PS3 a "sub $500 BD player"?

Bingo!
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post #95 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 06:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post


Quote:
Originally Posted by CustomGamer1 View Post

THIS JUST IN!!!!!

"Sony VP Chris Fawcett declined to provide exact market share percentages of the two sides."

[img]http://files.myopera.com/nosajman/files/********.jpg[/img]
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post #96 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 06:08 AM
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I've only seen this referenced once in this thread, but I think it's a critical point; file under "You can't have it both ways!":

If, in fact, BD has the lead in standalone player sales, in addition to the "overwhelming PS3 advantage" then the BR software attach rate is even more appalling and disastrous than anyone anticipated.

If the BDA has SUCH an overwhelming hardware sales lead, then a software sales ratio of 2:1 is nothing short of a failure of epic proportions.

So which is it: bullsh1t numbers or disastrous software sales? Your choice.

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post #97 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 06:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mel2 View Post

according to BJ electronics and ultimate electronics (two of the biggest electronics retailers in the US)

If they're two of the biggest electronics retailers in the US, why have I never heard of them? Especially since, as pointed out in this thread, Ultimate Electronics is a Chicago-area retailer and I've lived in Chicago my entire life?

I've heard of Best Buy, Circuit City, Tweeter, Abt, Fry's, Good Guys, Barrett's, Grant's, Douglas, etc etc, but neither of those stores. Pretty much precludes them from being the biggest in the country.

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post #98 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 06:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyharmonies View Post

I've only seen this referenced once in this thread, but I think it's a critical point; file under "You can't have it both ways!":

If, in fact, BD has the lead in standalone player sales, in addition to the "overwhelming PS3 advantage" then the BR software attach rate is even more appalling and disastrous than anyone anticipated.

If the BDA has SUCH an overwhelming hardware sales lead, then a software sales ratio of 2:1 is nothing short of a failure of epic proportions.

So which is it: bullsh1t numbers or disastrous software sales? Your choice.

What better way to make obvious in plan sight?
So is it a 4:1, 5:1, 6:1 or 7:1 deficit between players sold VS movie titles sold?
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post #99 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 06:20 AM
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I think I have another theory in the disparity in number of players. There's the real (1) CE highdef players (the standalone boxes on both sides), (2) x360 addon, (3) PS3.

It could be that the BD people don't count the x360 addon when counting standalone players, while the HD DVD people do, if the addon sells more than CE player, that could account for the 2:1 ratio vs the claim of more BD standalone (even a temporary one in july/aug).

This would explain the differences in numbers, and also explain the current state of movie sales.
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post #100 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 07:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

I call B.S. ....

There is no way that Sony is outselling all the far cheaper HD DVD players out there. I think they are twisting numbers again - most likely basing it on $ revenue, instead of units.

First of all, take a look at the graph. It's the second picture on this page:

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/...px?i=3084&p=10

Sony clearly states that this shows market share, based on unit sales. While it doesn't say so explicitly, my guess is that it's weekly market shares. There's just no way the share of total installed players would fluctuate so wildly from week to week.

Sony's claim seems to be that until the end of March, both formats sold about equally well (or poor, depending on how you look at it). Then, HD DVD rose to about 70% market share, which rose steadily to about mid-June, when Blu-ray takes over, and reaches about 70% within two weeks. After a couple of weeks it stabilizes at around 55%

So, to summarize:
Jan-Mar: 50/50
Apr: 30/70
May: 25/75
Jun 16: 20/80
Jun 23: 60/40
Jun 30: 70/30
Jul-Aug: 55/45

Given HD DVDs huge lead in April and May, I doubt these numbers include PS3 (they probably don't include the Xbox addon either).

What I'd really like to know, is what exactly these numbers represent. Are we looking at what customers are buying in the stores, or what suppliers are shipping? I would also love to know what volumes we're talking about here. It seems almost impossible to go from a 4:1 advantage to a 3:2 disadvantage in just one week, unless the actual numbers are very, very small.

Anyway - if these numbers actually represent the current market situation (I notice the chart ends the week before the Paramount announcement), then this should be a concern for the HD DVD-camp. If HD DVD is to have any hope of catching up to Blu-ray in terms of disc sales, they must sell enough standalone players to cancel the PS3-effect. But, that'll never happen if Blu-ray outsells HD DVD on standalones.

I'm a liitle bit concerned, I have to admit, but knowing how Sony tends to be very clever at how they present statistics, I'm crossing my fingers. I would like to see the official numbers from NPD, though.
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post #101 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 07:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregApple View Post

Great news for BD.

Now Blu-ray is beating HD-DVD in every single sales metric.

Software, Hardware, Standalones, Burners

everything.


This shows the consumer cares about more than just price.


Dude, put down the Kool-Aid. Seriously.

XA1 + PS3 = HD bliss
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post #102 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 07:31 AM
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Could it be that Sony counts their "perceived" number of the PS3s being used for BD playback as "CE players"? Sony could get this data by snooping the usage patterns of the users from the PS3's online connection, or they could just be using a survey of PS3 users that said "X % of total PS3 users have used its BD playback feature".

That could explain how they could claim to have overtaken the HD DVD standalone units both in value and units. I wouldn't put it past Sony. I have worked with my share of deviant companies who want to twist empirical (testing) data by selectively quoting parts that fit their (not totally false) message.
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post #103 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 07:36 AM
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It's great to hear about Sony set top players selling so well. Good job Sony.
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post #104 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 07:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geko29 View Post

If they're two of the biggest electronics retailers in the US, why have I never heard of them? Especially since, as pointed out in this thread, Ultimate Electronics is a Chicago-area retailer and I've lived in Chicago my entire life?

I've heard of Best Buy, Circuit City, Tweeter, Abt, Fry's, Good Guys, Barrett's, Grant's, Douglas, etc etc, but neither of those stores. Pretty much precludes them from being the biggest in the country.

I have to agree here...I have been living in the Chicago area for 55 years and have NEVER even heard about these 2 companies. Where are they located?

Joe V.
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post #105 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

Isn't this the same thing that Talk (I believe) admitted was revenue not units?

No it is definitely units

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post #106 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobyblue View Post

No it is definitely units


Does 'units' include the PS3s deemed to be used for BD playback? Don't say "no comment" !
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post #107 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 09:29 AM
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Geezz...

This is just hilarious!

Hey... we're winning!
Great... can we see the numbers!
No.
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post #108 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj View Post

Does 'units' include the PS3s deemed to be used for BD playback? Don't say "no comment" !

As stated earlier in the thread - if this included PS3 then the stats from early in the year would be way heavier towards the Blu side.

Doesn't look like it could include PS3.
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post #109 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jishywa View Post

As stated earlier in the thread - if this included PS3 then the stats from early in the year would be way heavier towards the Blu side.

Doesn't look like it could include PS3.

As I said before.. elsewhere.. the fact that they say "players" and not "standalone players" makes me suspicious. A portion of the total PS3s (that Sony considers are being used for BD playback) as "players" - conveniently to their case - to boost their numbers.

Their "no comments" on the question about how these numbers were obtained raises my curiosity.
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post #110 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobyblue View Post

No it is definitely units


Of course this is all speculation because Sony declined to provide any actual data or supporting evidence.

Did anyone else notice how non-linear the spike in the chart is?

Given the radical upswing on the chart I suspect this is Sony reporting "units shipped" not units sold. This is how then generally report sales and it makes sense that if they ramped up manufacturing and flooded the retailers with "sub $500" players there would be a sharp spike in "sales". Attributing actual retails sales to that radical spike in the chart is otherwise very difficult to explain.

This would also explain why they are unwilling to share details. They do not want a bunch of media backlash like the PS3 inventory fiasco.

Again everything here is just specularion since Sony declined to provide any data.
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post #111 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:37 AM
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I think the swings are pretty easy to attribute to releases of new hardware or price drops. The red upswing in early April probably coincides with a price-drop on the A2 hardware, and the upward spike for Sony comes from the release of the low-cost BDP-300.

When the total volume is pretty low like it is with these things, it doesn't take much to shift things. Sony must realize that the line could shift back down just as quickly as it went up, or perhaps already has with further price drops, etc.

Since this is a cumulative graph, over time the violent swings will become more tempered.
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post #112 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics View Post

If anyone really believed that BR players were outselling HD DVD in units then they should be very, very concerned about the Nielson numbers. They are running about 65:35 right now. That would not bode well for BR if it were true about the players, would it.

So blu-ray is outselling software 2:1 and now Sony gets up and says that they have just taken the hardware lead (in unit sales) and you think the 2:1 software advantage now looks abysmal? I suppose a year from now when blu-ray has 80% hardware market share and a 5:1 software ratio, that you will suggest blu-ray is in trouble because that software ratio should really be higher...
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post #113 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:46 AM
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I have time on my hands so why not post something to this thread? So:

1. HD-DVD and BR are a very small percentage of HW/SW sales in the overall DVD market. They still have a long way to go to get any real market penetration. Anyone reading this thread is an early adopter and not the typical consumer. Lots of markets don't even sell the HW or the SW is almost non existent from a B&M store. So almost nothing can be concluded from the numbers posted now. Until the vast majority of the HW is somewhere south of $250 and the average SW cost is in the sub $15 range, neither will really make a market impact. If only one achieves those levels, then they will probably win the format war by default.

2. I would assume that, given their lead and price point, that HD-DVD stand alone players have outsold BR stand alone players. And since both xBOx 360 and PS3 can be used to view DVD, there is some competition there, although PS3 can view them out of the box versus having to buy the add on for xBox360. Regardless, most of these machines are primarily game units I imagine and the DVD viewing is secondary. So why is the BR SW consistently outselling the HD-DVD SW? Do HD-DVD owners buy players just to collect dust or watch upgraded SD movies?

3. I think the vast majority of people are completely confused and ignorant on all of this. For instance, I live in an affluent suburb, very techy, with stores that carry the latest and greatest. Full of college grads. Yet in the past few weeks I have had two people ask me about high definition DVD and in both cases, they did not know there were two formats. They went to the store and said they wanted to buy one of the new HD DVD players, meaning a "high definition DVD player". They were not referring to a specific format. They go the box labeled "HD-DVD", since that made sense to them. Then they proceeded to buy POC or some such "high definition DVD" movie and can't figure out why it will not play on their new machine. HD-DVD is a name they can relate to but "BluRay" is some sort of a model, like a Ford or a Chevy. So they think the Sony BluRay is a HD DVD player, but it cost more than the Toshiba HD DVD player, so I will get the cheaper one!

Remember, not everyone is as up to date on all of this as we who are reading this forum might be. In fact, we are a small (very small) percentage of the public. To most people, who wins this format war is of no importance at all. They are still trying to get a handle on upconverting DVD, and in many cases think that is the same thing as a HD player.

It's all pretty funny when you stop and think about it.
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post #114 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 10:47 AM
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The 3 most important things going on in this presentation are;

1. Short period of time (10-12 weeks).
2. Coinciding with a noteworthy price reduction on a newly released player ($499).
3. Low overall volume of hardware sales on both sides.

My guess is that once a new pricing point is reached (that is a noteworthy difference from the last point) there is pent up demand by folks that were waiting for that price to be reached for the particular product. In this instance there was some pent up demand for BD players at the $499 price point. You see this mentioned in the forums routinely (when a BD player reaches $xxx I'll buy it). So looking at a short period of time following the introduction of the BDP-S300, given the low overall volumes of hardware on both sides, such a spike is not unexpected. In fact this entire presentation was clearly created with this in mind to lead the viewer to draw the conclusion that a sustainable trend is happening (when in all likelihood there isn't one). As the chart also shows, HD DVD had its spike with their previous price drops and then volumes leveled off after people waiting to get in at those points did so.

The question is how much pent up demand is there for BD at the $499 stand alone price point? Once that demand is satisfied, that's when price becomes a factor again and as price goes down more consumers enter the game. Said another way, so long as HD DVD continues to maintain the price advantage and make further drops larger groups of people waiting to get in will do so (the lower the price the larger the groups).

That is unless the market for HDM players is actually just a niche (then we are probably looking at both formats being around for a while).
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post #115 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:01 AM
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Here is circuitcity sorted by "Top seller"

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catO...ategorylist.do
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post #116 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbh View Post

so long as HD DVD continues to maintain the price advantage and make further drops larger groups of people waiting to get in will do so (the lower the price the larger the groups).

Absolutely true... which is why I just don't understand what the heck Sony is doing. They just DON"T get it with the pricing. The new machines that they have coming out (bd500 and I think the bd2000??) are priced at $700 and $1300!!!???

I'm in Canada. By the time these machines come here (it's ALWAYS more expensive here) and I finish paying the 13% sales tax... I'm looking at probably around $1000 and $1600...well... good bloody luck!
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post #117 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user4avsforum View Post

Of course this is all speculation because Sony declined to provide any actual data or supporting evidence.

Did anyone else notice how non-linear the spike in the chart is?

Given the radical upswing on the chart I suspect this is Sony reporting "units shipped" not units sold. This is how then generally report sales and it makes sense that if they ramped up manufacturing and flooded the retailers with "sub $500" players there would be a sharp spike in "sales". Attributing actual retails sales to that radical spike in the chart is otherwise very difficult to explain.

This would also explain why they are unwilling to share details. They do not want a bunch of media backlash like the PS3 inventory fiasco.

Again everything here is just specularion since Sony declined to provide any data.

Actually that spike in the timeline coincides with the S300 launch and the end of one large HD-A2 sale & promotion (I believe it was a $229 and 5 or 7 free movies or something like that), the selling price all went back to $399 (the MSRP) and sales practically disappeared overnight.

While the S300 sold some, the end of the HD-A2 sale accounted more for that ratio than the sales of S300 alone. After that, they both seem to have some sales going on (S300 by $50, HD-A2 by more).
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post #118 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:19 AM
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Just before the BDP-300 is launched, the HD DVD market share was looking pretty bad for BD, favoring HD DVD by a 3:1 margin. This chart clearly indicates that player-prices are a big factor in this war. What suprises me the most though is that a $500 player is sufficiently cheap to swing the numbers as much as they did. I would have thought they would have to get down to closer to $300 before they could start to swing things.
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post #119 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulidan View Post

Why is it so hard to believe that within a very tiny niche area, where TOTAL software between both formats only accounts for 2%, that the 'other' side could get a bump in its standalone sales?
Many people that started out with HD DVD because it was priced at $500 are of that select (and very small minority) group of consumers that crave high quality presentation of their movies. Why would they not jump at the chance to be totally covered and out of the war when the other players hit the same magic $500 price point?
I did. And I'm sure many others like me did too.

This whole notion that it is inconcievable that Blu-ray could sell as many or more players @$500 than HD DVD would at $225 is another indication of just how out of touch most HD fans are here.
Price simply doesn't matter as much as most of you like to think, because the plain simple fact is- beyond our 2% minority- nobody cares about HDMs.
That is the reason why despite HD DVD players continuing to sell, the ratios haven't bumped up- because most of the people buying new HD DVD players ALREADY OWN ONE. This base isn't broadening out and getting many new people in- it is the same people. beyond our inbred minorities, no one else cares!

Which is why the next big thing is current owners of one format getting a player from the 'other side'.
Pretty soon the militant format specific fanboys on both sides are going to be the endangered species, as more people get hip to opting out of the war mentality and go independent.

and it can't happen too soon

The HD-DVD supporters don't want to believe because this has been their bread and butter to cling onto (more hardware sales due to lower prices) since the start of the war. It is their only advantage over Blu-ray that they have and to be beaten will signal the end is near.

While, I do not believe that the blu-ray standalone sales have beaten the HD-DVD sales yet, I do not discount the fact that it CAN happen and it might happen this Christmas when the lower cost BD player goes to $300.

Please, for all the people that say the PS3 is included, stop the FUD. The ratio on the chart clearly indicates that the HD-DVD has at least a >30% share of the market. If the PS3 is included, with 1.1 million sold in Continental Europe; that means that HD-DVD would have at least sold 320k units in Europe, which I know they didn't.

Edited: They are talking about the European Market not NA.

Also, why are so many HD-DVD people here defending the unit sales. It is the blu-ray forum after all.

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post #120 of 186 Old 09-06-2007, 11:41 AM
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What the graph shows me is at the start both are near 50% share, HD-DVD then struck first with a huge promotion & price drop. It obliterated BD for a good period of time and then the promotion ended. BD then came back with their price cut/promotion & made a dent with HD-DVD.

All I really see is the impact of pricing promotions for both sides, with the A2 promotion being far superior. The true data is going to be the 4th qtr 2007 graphs when both sides are pushing big promotions at the same time.
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